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34 CHAPTER 2 Aviation Capacity and the Need for a Multimodal Context The aviation planning process could benefit from becoming more overtly and directly multimodal in nature. Plans for high-speed rail investment now under consideration in both coastal mega-regions could result in a total diver- sion of up to 15 million air trips per year in the long term. The scale of diversion in the established literature is much higher in the West Coast study area than in the East Coast study area. Analysis undertaken in the EU shows that, when city-center to city-center rail times can be decreased to under 3.5 hours, rail can capture more market share than air. In some cases, such as FrankfurtCologne, rail acts as feeder for long-distance flights; in other cases, such as Frankfurt Stuttgart, rail does not. The role of rail in a complementary mode should be studied further. High-speed rail can decrease the number of air travelers; without better management of the airports, this may not result in a decrease in flights Although no breakthrough in highway capacity will change the need for air travel, the highway planning process could be better integrated with aviation capacity planning; better long-distance travel data will result when the two planning processes are combined. Exhibit 2.0. Highlights and key themes included in Chapter 2. 2.0 Introduction demand currently expected to occur in mega-region airports. The concluding sections of Chapter 2 review the extent to One of the major conclusions of this research is that the which underused highway capacity might play a role in the aviation system planning process could benefit from facilitat- solution of problems revealed in this analysis, referencing ing a closer relationship with the planning process for the supporting documentation in Appendix C. Chapter 2 con- other modes providing longer distance services in the United cludes that HSR programs now under consideration could States, with particular emphasis on the longer distance travel affect the very accuracy of the aviation forecasts. It also con- modes such as highway, rail, and intercity bus. Chapter 1 cludes that there is no viable scenario in which an increase in built the case that there is a problem in the mega-regions and highway capacity would significantly alter the need for more that the cost of doing nothing is significant. That chapter con- capacity in the aviation system. Integration of the modally cluded that a new approach is needed to respond to economic based planning process in the mega-regions is, however, impacts of doing nothing. essential to support improved multimodal decision-making. Chapter 2 now reviews the extent to which aviation plan- Specific suggestions to improve the multimodal planning ning is inherently intertwined with the planning and analysis process are presented in Chapter 6 of this report. of capacity increases in other longer distance modes--specif- In the next five sections, Chapter 2 presents the logic of ically, HSR and highway planning (see Exhibit 2.0 for high- better integration with HSR. Section 2.1 reviews some basic lights and key themes included in the chapter). The first five concepts needed to differentiate the function of rail in sub- sections of Chapter 2 review the extent to which HSR plan- stituting for air services from the function of rail in comple- ning might and might not play a role in accommodating menting air services. (Figure 2.1 illustrates the most basic