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35 relationship between rail travel times to air- vs. rail-market research team also believes that successful ground trans- share for new services, based primarily on the substitution of portation services can play an increased role in providing trips from city to city.) complementary short-haul services in support of longer haul Section 2.2 reviews the possible role of vastly improved airline services, although the exact form of this is less clear. new rail services that would connect the Northern California In the former category, HSR services are focused on city cen- Mega-region with the Southern California Mega-region; pos- ter to city center; in the latter category, HSR services are sible service to Las Vegas is covered in lesser detail. The section focused on points of connection with major airports, either reviews the city-pairs (metro-pairs) identified in Chapter 1 directly or by some form of connector (e.g., people movers). and documents the present use of rail within California for The research team believes that there is a gap in the existing those pairs. (Figure 2.3 summarizes the projected volumes for methodology to support the analysis of rail in the comple- each of the city pairs and the projected mode share for each mentary mode, which should be explored further in contin- pair.) Diversions from air are summarized and compared with uing research in this subject area. To explore further the calculations of diversions made earlier by the Federal Rail- nature of the issue of "rail as feeder to plane," this report road Administration (FRA) in 1997. includes a brief case study of the experience in Germany, Section 2.3 reviews the present and possible future of HSR in where there are several airrail combined service models in the East Coast Mega-region. The section reviews the city-pairs operation at one airport. (metro-pairs) identified in Chapter 1 and documents the role Successful high-speed ground services can provide a clear- of present rail services for each of the larger pairs. (Figure 2.10 cut alternative to air travel in the two study areas (i.e., East and summarizes the most basic relationship between a change in rail West Coasts), largely providing services from one downtown travel time and the resultant change in rail mode share for the center to another downtown center. The primary support for improved services.) Diversions from air are presented in a vari- this concept can be found in the Northeast Corridor (NEC) ety of technical formats. The possible projected increases in rail and in Western Europe. A key concern, however, is the set of share are discussed, based on existing work on the subject capacity constraints existing in the NEC Mega-region and the undertaken by the FRA and by the Office of the Inspector Gen- need for completely new infrastructure in California. In short, eral (U.S. DOT), noting their implications for aviation planning. the potential demand is readily documentable, as presented on Section 2.4 addresses the issue of what actually happens at the following pages; the need for capacity increases will require an airport when there is a diversion of air travelers to another considerable additional engineering and cost documentation. mode. On the basis of a detailed case study of the decline in air Available cost "estimates" are presented as they exist, but they traffic between Boston and New York City (NYC) airports, do not match the detail of the demand information. Section 2.4 shows that--without the kind of controls discussed The extent to which improvements in rail can shift market in Chapter 5--a similar number of flights may be operated behavior away from air services and to HSR services has been with smaller aircraft, resulting in only minor improvements well documented over the last decade of HSR implementa- in aviation congestion, if any. tion in Western Europe. Figure 2.1 was prepared for the EU Section 2.5 introduces the issue of rail in the complemen- tary mode, where rail services are seen as integrated feeder by the British consulting firm, Steer Davies Gleave, in Air and services in a unified air-plus-rail ticket offering. The research Rail Competition and Complementarity, Final Report (1) for team has concluded that the basis for analyzing these patterns EU's Directorate General for Energy and Transportation. lags far behind the analysis of rail in competition with air The implications of the graph are startling in their sim- (substitution mode). Elements of a case study are introduced plicity. Under present airport conditions, when a European that analyze the decision by a major international airline to train can provide city-center to city-center service in less than discontinue short-distance feeder flights between Frankfurt 3.5 hours, that train can gain a market share of greater than 50% Airport and one nearby airport and continue short-distance of the aggregate of air and rail combined. A quick visual inspec- feeder flights to a second airport at the same distance. Also tion of Figure 2.1 indicates that the "successful" European documented is the similar U.S. situation, in which one U.S. city-pair routes are in the upper left-hand portion of the airline presently offers a joint air-plus-rail ticket to a series of graph and the unsuccessful are in the lower right-hand quad- rail stations in the East Coast Mega-region. rant. Of course, no conclusions can be drawn about the por- tion of a city-pair market that goes to the automobile, as these data are often not available. 2.1 Demand for HSR in Travel This observation provides the reader with a "rule of from City Center to City Center thumb" for looking at proposals to divert air travelers to rail The available data and experience suggest that there is a services. Interestingly, this rule-of-thumb process relies only very strong potential role for HSR in the East and West Coast on rail travel time and does not rely on either the distance Mega-regions as a substitution for present aviation trips. The between the city pairs or the travel time of the air journey.