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61 The CASP process consists of a continuous cycle that begins with a regional air passenger survey. This survey is followed by forecasts of future air passenger travel and the ground travel of these air passengers to and from the region's three commercial airports. These forecasts in turn lead to the development of a revised ground access plan for the region. The aviation group within the TPB Technical Committee is responsible for the coordination of airport system planning with the regional transportation planning process. The sub- committee provides technical review for projects and reports stemming from the CASP program. Presentations regarding such projects are made to the subcommittee, and comments and suggestions are solicited. Then, presentations are made to the TPB Technical Committee and the TPB. All CASP program products follow this technical review process, prior to submis- sion to the funding agencies, which include the FAA, the MWAA, and the Maryland Aviation Administration (MAA). The aviation subcommittee includes representatives from the MAA, the MWAA, the D.C. Government, the Virginia Department of Aviation, and the FAA, as well as representa- tives of local jurisdictions within the Council of Govern- Figure 3.5. WashingtonBaltimore air system planning region (6). ments' membership. In addition, other regional agencies with aviation interests, airport sponsors, and aviation interest groups and associations are encouraged to participate. The CASP program's goal is to provide a process that sup- ports the planning, development, and operation of airport 3.4 Mega-region Framework facilities and the transportation facilities that serve the airports Approach to Airport Planning in a systematic framework for the Washington-Baltimore region. In October 1998, the TPB unanimously adopted the Chapters 1 and 2 of this report have documented that capac- Vision for the future of transportation in the region. The ity problems at airports in the coastal mega-regions are driven Vision is a policy document with eight key goals and associated significantly by a mismatch of travel demand with travel objectives and strategies to guide transportation into the 21st options, in both air and ground modes. Addressing these issues century. effectively requires the ability to understand the nature and Goal 8 of the TPB's Vision reads: "The Washington metro- scale of demand for air service in each mega-region. The fol- politan region will support options for international and inter- lowing subsections present examples of how data could be ana- regional travel and commerce. Goal 8 has the following three lyzed to more effectively explain air traveler behavior in the objectives: context of complete trips. By taking a complete-trip perspective, airport planners and managers would be able to manage air- 1. The Washington region will be among the most accessible port capacity at a more regional level and potentially strike in the nation for international and interregional passenger a balance between service frequency and capacity (using the and goods movements. mega-region as the geographic unit of analysis). 2. Continued growth in passenger and goods movement between the Washington region and other nearby regions 3.4.1 Applying County-to-County Trip in the mid-Atlantic area. Tables in the West Coast Mega-region 3. Connectivity to and between Washington Dulles Inter- national, Ronald Reagan Washington National, and To facilitate regional analysis of travel within the Califor- Baltimore-Washington Thurgood Marshall International nia Corridor, the research team developed regional trip Airports" (6). tables that encompass complete trips. This task involved collecting air traveler surveys from five airports in two The first strategy for implementing Goal 8 is to maintain regions. In the first region (the San Francisco Bay Area), the convenient access to all of the region's major airports for both team collected data from the MTC derived from air traveler people and goods. surveys at SJC, OAK, and SFO. For the second region

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62 (Southern California), the team collected surveys from Los 3.4.2 The Need to Go Beyond Angeles World Airports for LAX and Ontario International Airport-to-Airport Data Sources Airport (ONT). Subsequently, the managers at the South- ern California Association of Governments (SCAG) con- The previous section illustrates the potential for using trip tributed calculations of origins and modes for airports in the tables based on the complete trip concept to help airport entire region. managers better understand passenger travel patterns and Each air traveler survey included a passenger's true origin, needs. Notably, if such trip tables were available for all airports such as a ZIP code or a county code for the county where the within each mega-region, there would be great potential for trip to the origin airport started. These surveys were used to focusing airport planning on passenger demand rather than understand the distribution of true origins and true destina- flight demand. tions for air travel on the California Corridor. Using statisti- Use of mega-regionlevel data can pinpoint whether pas- cal methods, the research team used the air traveler survey sengers would willingly divert from hub airports to smaller data sets as well as BTS data to develop datasets reflecting the non-hub airports based on their true origins and destinations. following travel progression: true origin (by county) to origin Such diversions could alleviate pressure on the hub airports. airport to destination airport to true destination (by county). For example, the county-to-county trip table from travel Figure 3.6 displays the airport pairs for which the research between the ONT and SJC airports shows that demand exists team developed these county-to-county trip tables. between Monterey and Orange County. Smaller aircraft could The end result is 12 county-to-county trip tables, one for serve these two regions directly, reducing pressure on ONT each airport OD pair shown. A county-to-county trip table and SJC and also serving passengers with less surface access. can reveal the details of traveler origins and destinations for True origin to true destination trip tables could also provide passengers passing through two airports in question. For exam- important insights into the potential of intermodal substitu- ple, by reviewing such a trip table, one could tell the number tion. For example, the trip tables show demand between Fresno and percentage of total passengers traveling between ONT and San Bernardino Counties. The California HSR line is slated and SFO who originated in a particular county. It could also for service between Fresno and ONT; the number of passengers show a breakdown of destination counties for such passen- traveling between the SJC and ONT airports could greatly gers. As transportation is a "derived demand," such trip tables decrease with the introduction of rail. Furthermore, these pas- expose the underlying county-to-county demand that an air- sengers would have their access time and costs significantly port-to-airport trip table obscures. reduced. Without HSR, the region could be also be served with As discussed in this study, major (or hub) airports such as air traffic if there were a need to reduce pressure on SJC. those shown in Figure 3.6 are at or are near operating capac- Another application of these county-to-county trip tables ity. Innovative ways to move a growing number of passengers is the consolidation of flights across hub airports. The 12 through airports while reducing delay are therefore welcome. county-to-county trip tables can help determine the poten- Chapter 5 will examine the potential of reducing delay at a tial volume of passengers to divert from one hub airport to hub airport by eliminating short-haul flights and diverting another. For example, there may be two flights within a few very small aircraft. The county-to-county trip tables allow for minutes of one another traveling to LAX but departing from a regional analysis to understand whether traveler patterns SFO and OAK. With a county-to-county trip table, one may could facilitate shifting traffic to non-hub airports to reduce be able to discover that the majority of passengers flying from hub delay and pressure. Passengers may divert away from a OAK are within a reasonable ground travel distance of SFO. major hub on just one link, one end substitution, or on both With this information, it might be possible to up-gauge the links, two end substitutions. flight from SFO to LAX, thus accommodating passengers origi- nally traveling from OAK. A flight might be added between a nearby airport to the remaining true passenger origins, such as Hayward, to LAX. While the number of operations is preserved SFO LAX at the destination (LAX), an operation was eliminated at OAK, allowing OAK the capacity to serve another non-redundant OAK operation. ONT SJC 3.4.3 The Importance of Applying Transport Planning Tools to Aviation Planning Figure 3.6. West Coast Mega-region airport The research team believes that employing a complete trip pairs. OD approach to airport planning would provide aviation