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73 process that was more multimodal and multijurisdictional In this project, the shorter distance air segments require in nature. After this analysis of the potential role of strate- the most analysis. Trips to and from areas outside the study gies external to the aviation industry, the following chapter area are simply not candidates for either rail substitution or (Chapter 5) examines alternative strategies to better manage for providing complementary services, as discussed in Chap- the airport and air systems facilities themselves. ter 2. However, longer distance trips may be candidates for diversion to adjacent airports closer to the origin of the trip- maker, as discussed in Chapter 3. Thus, the longer distance Issues for Airport-by-Airport Review trips are described for each major airport in terms of the geo- For each of the largest airports in the two study areas, this graphic distribution of their destination trip ends. section of the report reviews the local airport data to provide the following: 4.2.1 San Francisco International Airport (SFO) 1. A summary of the role of shorter distance, intra-mega- region traffic at the subject airport. SFO ranks 13th in the ACI-NA list of American airports 2. A review of the possible implications of planned rail proj- in 2007. On the basis only of the DOT's OD survey, it is esti- ects for trip substitution. mated that about 22% of enplanements at SFO are made by 3. A review of the role for rail and proximate airports for those from connecting flights (see Table 4.1). The limitations multijurisdictional solutions. of various data sources are discussed in Section 4.6. 4. A review of the importance of shorter distance flights to support economically important longer distance flights, 4.2.1.1 The Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at SFO such as international services. 5. Conditions in the year 2025, in which the calculated impacts Of all those passengers enplaning at SFO (both originating of doing nothing are presented as a surrogate metric for and connecting), 17% are going to destinations within the the scale of the challenge at the subject airport. West Coast study area: 15% are going to destinations in the Southern California/Las Vegas McCarran Airport (LAS) Mega- region, with only 2% going to the Northern California Mega- 4.2 Strategic Implications for region. Of all those enplaning at SFO, 11% are making trips the Major Airports in entirely within the West Coast study area. the West Coast Study Area Section 4.2 reviews the implications of the major themes 4.2.1.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: of this research project on the four largest airports in the Impacts on SFO West Coast study area, with particular attention to the shorter distance trips and trip segments that occur within the borders Of these trips, the 1.6 million SFO trips with actual des- of the study area. tinations in the southern portion of the study area are the Table 4.1. Origin­destination passenger volumes at SFO (1). San Francisco, 2007 (SFO) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings From Outside From From Total Total Originating from Transfer West Coast West Coast Atlantic/ South-Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Study Area Pacific America Northern California 1.9 318,233 22,280 295,953 82,740 169,566 73,195 4,905 Southern California/ 14.6 2,405,822 1,614,370 791,452 127,720 618,016 271,751 7,868 LAS To the North 11.2 1,852,852 1,250,521 602,331 278,036 145,823 155,797 29,199 To the East 42.2 6,963,448 6,067,140 896,308 251,760 271,390 504,283 2,220 Transatlantic 9.1 1,503,667 1,419,502 84,165 57,671 48,320 0 0 Transpacific 16.8 2,767,323 1,846,162 921,161 287,275 767,697 10 220 South-Central America 4.2 696,748 652,236 44,512 12,773 60,618 320 0 Totals 100 16,508,093 12,872,211 3,635,882 1,097,975 2,081,430 1,005,356 44,412

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74 most logical candidates for diversion HSR services. Chap- California, with nearly 770,000 connecting trips. Of all the ter 3 reported that air volumes between the Bay Area and SFO passengers connecting to the Pacific, only about 60,000 the Los Angeles Basin could be expected to drop by about per year (6% of passengers transferring to the Pacific) are 40% with the inauguration of the full California HSR project. being supplied on the short flights from the immediate From the same calculations, the air volumes between the Bay Northern California area. Area and San Diego would fall by about 35%. The airport does not play much role in shorter distance Assuming that HSR lowered the number of air trips to the (OD) travel in the Northern California. Local air travelers southern region as a whole by about 35%, this would be a with destinations in this part of the state make up about 0.1% decrease of 600,000 air passengers from SFO. This would rep- of the total enplanements at SFO. resent a decrease in total SFO boardings of between 3­4% of Its role as a transferring "gateway" to the West Coast study total SFO air passengers. No direct rail services between the area is modest, with only about 7% of SFO airport users con- Bay Area and Las Vegas are contemplated at present. necting to other airports in the West Coast study area. The SFO airport passenger activity summary (Appendix A) pres- ents the 10 closest airports, the most distant of them being 4.2.1.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode Santa Barbara (257 miles). and the Role of Adjacent Airports SFO will be linked to the California HSR system, possibly 4.2.1.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 using the existing (currently unused) Bay Area Rapid Transit alignment between the International Terminal and Millbrae Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE (3) program Station along the existing CalTrain right of way. This align- predicts that demand for domestic originations at SFO will ment could have major implications for the use of HSR as a increase by about 76% over what the research team reported feeder mode for longer distance flights, particularly extend- for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Forecasts, which ing the airport's market-shed area far to the south, to San look at domestic originations, transfer activity, and inter- Diego, Gilroy, and beyond. Airport rail ground access to national activity, have predicted an 84% growth between Merced, Modesto, and Stockton would also be somewhat 2007 and 2025 for SFO. improved. All of this supports the need to examine alternative futures The implications of doing nothing at SFO. Given the for each of the airports in the region, to build on the strengths definitions established in Chapter 1, the 2025 cost of not of each. That study could also examine the possibility of more dealing with the issues addressed in this project at SFO flights from smaller airports directly to transfer hubs (e.g., would be about $0.8 billion compared with a base-case Salt Lake, Denver, and Phoenix) that would avoid move- benchmark condition of the delay experienced at SFO in the ments in the West Coast study area airports. year 2003. The existing scope of services for the MTC RASP reflects very positively many of the innovations commenced in the 4.2.2 Los Angeles International FAA's NERASP program in New England (2). An early RASP Airport (LAX) meeting included a major presentation from managers at Boston's Logan Airport, reflecting the progress encouraged LAX is the largest airport in our two study areas, com- by the NERASP program. The MTC project could be closely manding both domestic and international markets and rank- monitored for its implication for future multijurisdictional ing as the third largest airport in the United States according aviation studies, including a proposed project for Southern to the ACI-NA 2007 rankings. From the DOT's OD survey, California. about 19% of enplanements are estimated to be made by those from connecting flights (see Table 4.2). 4.2.1.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights 4.2.2.1 The Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at LAX Of the 2.8 million boardings for transpacific flights, two thirds of those come from local originations, with another Of all those enplaning at LAX (originating and connecting), 900,000 transferring from feeder flights. Clearly, the success 15% are going to destinations within the West Coast study of SFO as a jump-off point for transpacific flights is the com- area, 6% are going to destinations in the Southern California/ bination of a strong home (origination) market and the abil- LAS Mega-region, and 9% are going to the Northern Califor- ity to continue filling seats with flights from distant areas. nia Mega-region. Of all those enplaning at LAX, 10% are Overwhelmingly, those feeder trips are coming from outside making trips entirely within the West Coast study area.

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75 Table 4.2. Origin­destination passenger volumes at LAX (1). Los Angeles, 2007 (LAX) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings From Outside From Total Originating from Transfer West Coast West Coast From Atlan- South-Central Destination Zone Total (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Study Area tic/Pacific America Northern California 9.2 2,627,051 1,917,500 709,551 117,190 345,914 140,034 106,413 Southern California/LAS 6.1 1,762,497 720,760 1,041,737 225,160 523,295 253,302 39,980 To the North 9.2 2,630,745 2,248,781 381,964 123,939 88,277 77,337 92,411 To the East 42.8 12,291,794 10,499,730 1,792,064 817,950 92,297 860,166 21,651 Transatlantic 7.1 2,034,528 1,923,241 111,287 91,411 19,876 0 0 Transpacific 16.9 4,863,465 3,642,293 1,221,172 301,925 918,087 20 1,140 South-Central America 8.7 2,495,635 2,233,500 262,135 146,393 114,022 1,720 0 Totals 100 28,705,715 23,185,805 5,519,910 1,823,968 2,101,768 1,332,579 261,595 4.2.2.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: in the SCAG region were also modeled for these plans, Impacts on LAX including San Bernardino International, March Inland Port, and Southern California Logistics airports. In terms of potential intermodal impacts, the 10% of LAX- This underscores the need, as discussed in Chapter 3, to originating boarders with actual destinations in the study area continue the emphasis on multijurisdictional planning efforts are the most important. Table 4.2 shows that 1.9 million pas- in the aviation sector in Southern California. Such study efforts sengers are destined to the Northern California Mega-region; would also examine the possibility of more flights from smaller if HSR could divert 35% of these travelers from air, boardings Southern California airports directly to transfer hubs (e.g., at LAX would decrease by 670,000. Salt Lake, Denver, and Phoenix) that would avoid transfer The total number of passengers flying from LAX to the des- movements in the West Coast study area airports. The timing tination of Las Vegas Airport is 629,000. Assuming a range of of the proposed regional program could benefit both from air diversions from 20% to 35%, the decrease in LAX board- the innovations of the FAA's NERASP program and from the ings would range between 126,000 and 220,000.32 If HSR were other multijurisdictional work undertaken by the major MPOs assumed in both corridors, the higher level of diversion in California. would result in a decrease of 3­4% of LAX total boardings. 4.2.2.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights 4.2.2.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode and the Role of Adjacent Airports Of a total of about 29 million boardings in the OD data- base, 23 million are from the Los Angeles area, with less than It has now been established that the California HSR system 6 million transferring from a feeder flight. Of about 4.9 mil- will not directly serve LAX, and thus the role of HSR as feeder lion passengers boarding from transpacific flights (including to longer distance flights at LAX will be insignificant. How- Hawaii), about 1.2 million are brought to LAX on feeder ever, HSR's role as a feeder to both ONT and Palmdale should flights, and about one quarter of these are from the West be explored in the next phase of Regional Aviation Systems Coast study area, which includes all of California and the Las Planning in California. It may be possible to use HSR mean- Vegas area. ingfully to increase the relative role of Palmdale and ONT as Additionally, LAX is a major beginning point for trans- part of a "family of airports" concept. SCAG has done exten- atlantic travel, in spite of its western location. In fact, more sive modeling of HSR access to both Ontario and Palmdale people (at more than 2.0 million) board a plane at LAX for a airports in its 2001, 2004, and 2008 Regional Transportation transatlantic trip than do from IAD, PHL, or BOS. The trans- plans. The modeling work showed both modal shifts and pas- atlantic flyers are overwhelmingly from the Los Angeles area, senger and cargo demand increases at those airports resulting as only 5% of those boarding for a transatlantic destination from HSR access. The impacts of HSR access to other airports are transferring from a connecting flight. Its role as a transferring gateway to the West Coast study area 32 This range represents a higher level of diversion than that reported in Chapter 2, is modest, with only about 6% of LAX users connecting to which was for a specific, non-electrified rail technology. other airports in the West Coast study area. The 10 closest air-

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76 ports are described with their segment passenger volumes and highest level of intraregional orientation in the full ACRP their distance from LAX in the LAX airport passenger activity sample of major airports. summary included in Appendix A. 4.2.3.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: 4.2.2.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 Impacts on LAS Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program Looking first at the 20% of LAS boarders who are originat- predicts that demand for domestic originations at LAX will ing in Las Vegas and ending their trip in California, Figure 2.2 increase by about 80% over what the research team has shows that 1.6 million people are currently flying from LAS to reported for the year 2007. The FAA's more comprehensive the Los Angeles Basin. If air volumes decreased by 35%, that Terminal Area Forecasts have predicted a 98% growth between would be a drop of 560,000 air passengers. This would represent 2007 and 2025 for LAX. about a 3% decrease in the number of air passengers at LAS. At present, no direct rail services are planned from Las Vegas The implications of doing nothing at LAX. Given the to San Diego or to Northern California, unless the two pro- definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing grams are merged, which is under discussion. with the issues addressed in this project at LAX would be about $1.8 billion compared with a base-case benchmark condition of the delay experienced at LAX in the year 2003. 4.2.3.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode and the Role of Adjacent Airports As interviews with managers at LAS revealed, there is no 4.2.3 Las Vegas McCarran Airport (LAS) major logical feeder area for LAS flights beyond Clark County. LAS has the highest volume of domestic origination pas- On the basis of the growth in demand revealed in this analy- sengers in the nation--about 16.9 million in the Las Vegas sis, the major question concerns new airport capacity to serve area. In total volume, it ranks seventh among airports in the what is basically a Clark County market. United States in the ACI-NA 2007 survey. On the basis of the DOT's OD sample, about 16% of the enplanements are from 4.2.3.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights connecting flights (see Table 4.3). At LAS, few people actually start, or end, an international flight of any kind--about 2% of the total boardings. Still, the 4.2.3.1 The Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at LAS airport handles more than 3 million transfers, generally from Of all those passengers enplaning at McCarran Airport, the lower 48 states. The majority of these are from California, 26% are going to destinations within the West Coast study transferring to a flight to the more eastern parts of the coun- area; 16% are going to destinations in the Cal South/LAX try. Of those eastbound, more transfer from the West Coast Mega-region and 10% are going to the Cal North Mega- study area than from the rest of the country combined. region. Of all those enplaning at LAS, 20% are making trips Its role as a transferring gateway to the West Coast study entirely within the West Coast study area, which is the second area is modest, with only about 7% of LAS airport users Table 4.3. Origin­destination passenger volumes at LAS (1). Las Vegas, 2007 (LAS) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings From Outside From From Total Originating from Transfer West Coast West Coast Atlantic/ South-Central Destination Zone Total (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Study Area Pacific America Northern California 9.8 1,958,160 1,494,860 463,300 93,190 364,270 4,170 1,670 Southern California 15.8 3,178,330 2,192,520 985,810 164,530 813,290 5,760 2,230 To the North 9.8 1,959,300 1,685,100 274,200 71,180 200,700 1,470 850 To the East 62.6 12,572,580 11,203,850 1,368,730 1,097,420 218,180 52,960 170 Transpacific 1.9 378,100 313,450 64,650 9,930 54,650 0 70 South-Central America 0.2 30,640 25,700 4,940 3,900 960 80 0 Totals 100 20,077,110 16,915,480 3,161,630 1,440,150 1,652,050 64,440 4,990

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77 transferring to other airports in the West Coast study area. tinations in the Southern California/LAS Mega-region, and The 10 closest airports are described with their segment pas- 20% are going to the Northern California Mega-region. Of all senger volumes and their distance from LAS in the LAS air- those enplaning at SAN, 24% are making trips entirely within port passenger activity summary (Appendix A). Looking at the West Coast study area, which is the highest level of intra- the shortest flights feeding LAS, nearly a quarter of the pas- regional travel of any major airport in the ACRP study. sengers are traveling less than 260 mi, with major concentra- tion of destinations into Phoenix, LAX, SAN, Burbank, and 4.2.4.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: John Wayne. Impacts on SAN In the analysis presented in Chapter 2, the HSR program 4.2.3.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 could lower the number of passengers flying between San Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program Diego and the Northern California Mega-region by about predicts that demand for domestic originations at LAS will 35%. Assuming that diversion, the total number of air pas- increase by about 85% over what the research team has sengers boarding at San Diego would decrease by about 6%. reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Forecasts have predicted a 104% growth between 2007 and 2025 for LAS. 4.2.4.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode and the Role of Adjacent Airports The implications of doing nothing at LAS. Given the definitions established in Chapter 1, the 2025 cost of not deal- The California HSR system can directly serve SAN, where ing with the issues addressed in this project at LAS would be studies are now underway to make the airport more oriented about $1.8 billion compared with a benchmark condition of to a possible intermodal center located on the rail right of the delay experienced at LAX in the year 2003. way. In theory, the logical catchment area of SAN could geographically grow to increase market participation from 4.2.4 San Diego International Lindbergh communities near the proposed rail stations at Escondido, Field (SAN) Murrieta, and University of California-Riverside. Alterna- tively, the opposite phenomenon might also be true: these San Diego is a major airport in the United States, ranking market areas might be more attracted to ONT, assuming that 29th in the ACI-NA 2007 listings. It is characterized by an its services and prices were improved. With a greater variety extraordinary reliance on originating traffic, with only 5% of of destinations and flight options available at SAN compared enplaning passengers having arrived by connecting flight (see with ONT, an HSR connection might have the initial affect of Table 4.4). drawing more passengers to use SAN rather than shifting pas- sengers to ONT until possible airport congestion or cost 4.2.4.1 The Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at SAN causes SAN to be a less attractive alternative. With increased use, ONT might develop route patterns similar to SAN; at Of all those enplaning at SAN, 26% are going to destina- best, the rail system would provide a mechanism that would tions within the West Coast study area; 6% are going to des- allow more optimized airport choice by the customer. Table 4.4. Origin­destination passenger volumes at SAN (1). San Diego, 2007 Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings From Outside From From Total Originating from Transfer West Coast West Coast Atlantic/ South-Central Destination Zone Total (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Study Area Pacific America Northern California 19.7 1,831,720 1,731,620 100,100 11,480 84,513 2,310 1,797 Southern California/LAS 6.0 552,448 447,460 104,988 19,430 80,543 3,293 1,722 To the North 11.2 1,038,112 1,014,541 23,571 5,316 11,669 922 5,664 To the East 54.6 5,063,861 4,891,420 172,441 144,680 12,259 14,531 971 Transatlantic 2.7 248,829 245,848 2,981 2,095 886 0 0 Transpacific 3.8 352,355 334,250 18,105 3,508 14,567 10 20 South-Central America 2.1 190,137 179,963 10,174 3,519 6,635 20 0 Totals 100 9,277,462 8,845,102 432,360 190,028 211,072 21,086 10,174