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78 As noted, the proposed California HSR system will not serve To better understand the passenger activity in more of the as a feeder to LAX, so the problem of where to transfer SAN- West Coast airports, Appendix C includes the comprehensive originating passengers seeking access to more difficult destina- passenger activity summary tables for the following 11 air- tions remains to be resolved, including the increased role of ports (generally ordered from north to south): ONT. This underscores the need for a comprehensive Regional Aviation System Plan in Southern California to maximize the · Sacramento Airport, potential contribution of all major regional airports in the · OAK, study area. Because of the recent decision to have the airport · SJO, remain in its present, highly constricted location, the impor- · Burbank Airport, tance of increased roles for airports to the north (and possibly · Long Beach Airport, more use of airport capacity to the south) should be a high pri- · ONT, ority for the long-term intermodal strategy in San Diego. (In · John Wayne Santa Anna Airport, and the event that San Diego managers find an alternative location, · The four airports discussed in this section. the role of rail would need to be re-examined.) The airport passenger activity summary tables developed in this project are described in the introduction to Appen- 4.2.4.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights dix C. With these summary tables, the reader can learn the Historically, SAN has not been a major international air- following: port. It was once served by an international airline, which had to fly partially empty planes in order to deal with the limited · The absolute volumes of origination and transferring air runways at the airport; this service has since been abandoned. passengers at the subject airport, from the Airline Origin SAN's role as a transferring gateway to the West Coast and Destination Survey of the Office of Airline Informa- study area is minimal, with only about 2% of airport users tion of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (DB1B); transferring to other airports in the West Coast study area. · The destinations of all originating and transferring air pas- SAN is not characterized by having direct service to nearby sengers at the subject airport, organized by 13 super zones smaller airports. Indeed, the closest airport with direct service of origin and 13 super zones of destination (also from the is LAX, where many SAN passengers go to transfer to the more DB1B); abundant set of services to varied destinations. · The volumes of total air passengers carried to the 10 closest airports to the subject airport, from the DOT T100 database, 4.2.4.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 which includes very small commuter carriers not included in the DB1B data; and Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program · A single example of the number of such air travelers who predicts that demand for domestic originations at SAN will are traveling to that destination with the subject airport as increase by about 72% over what the research team has the origin (again from the DB1B). reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Forecasts have predicted a 73% growth between 2007 and 2025 at SAN. 4.4 Strategic Implications for The implications of doing nothing at SAN. Given the the Major Airports in definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing the East Coast Study Area with the issues addressed in this project at SAN would be 4.4.1 Boston Logan Airport (BOS) about $0.6 billion compared with a benchmark condition of the delay experienced at SAN in the year 2003. BOS is ranked as the 20th airport in the United States in terms of passenger activity in the ACI-NA 2007 survey. BOS is primarily an airport for originating/ending traffic. Of the 4.3 Understanding the Role trips captured in the DOT's OD survey, about 5% of the of Smaller Airports in enplanements are by passengers who arrived at the airport by the West Coast Study Area connecting airplanes (see Table 4.5). Most of the transfer activity and the international activity in the West Coast study area occur at the airports whose pas- 4.4.1.1 Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at BOS senger flows are documented in some detail in the previous sections. The other airports tend to be dominated by domes- Of all those passengers enplaning at BOS, 21% are going tic flows, with less reliance on transfers, and a greater percent- to destinations within the East Coast study area: 1% are age of boardings from the local area (originations). going to destinations in New England; 12% are going to New

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79 Table 4.5. Origin­destination passenger volumes at BOS (1). Boston, 2007 (BOS) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings From from Outside of From South- Total Total Originating Transfer East Coast East Coast Atlantic/ Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Study Area Pacific America New England 0.8 102,529 3,270 99,259 28,160 65,490 3126 2,483 NY, NJ, PA 11.6 1,573,230 1,459,650 113,580 24,940 62,628 18,301 7,711 Mid-Atlantic 8.2 1,106,834 1,060,670 46,164 11680 17943 14,109 2,432 To the South 22.7 3,085,099 2,981,240 103,859 51,970 24,685 25,332 1,872 To the West 35.3 4,788,332 4,629,810 158,522 68,350 26,312 55891 7,969 To the North 2.5 341,529 309,261 32,268 10,161 22,097 0 10 Transatlantic 11.1 1,502,673 1,393,366 109,307 32,167 77,140 0 0 Transpacific 2.3 305,501 298,039 7,462 3,369 4,083 0 10 South-Central America 5.6 764,752 742,275 22,477 12,626 9,851 0 0 Totals 100 13,570,479 12,877,581 692,898 243,423 310,229 116,759 22,487 York, New Jersey, or Pennsylvania; and 8% are going to the Massachusetts passengers willing to change to some connect- Washington, D.C./Baltimore region. Of all those enplaning ing mode at South Station to get to BOS. at BOS, 19% are making trips entirely within the East Coast Rather, continued regional airport systems planning should study area, the highest level of any East Coast study area airport. build upon the analysis commenced in the NERASP study to widen the unique and successful system of intercity bus ser- vices directly serving BOS. The need in New England is not 4.4.1.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: to alter the present pattern of regional sharing of demand, but Impacts on BOS to continue building on the success of NERASP. According to the analysis by the DOT's Office of the Inspec- tor General, increased investment in the rail system between 4.4.1.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights Boston and NYC could divert an additional 10% of air pas- sengers in a lower speed scenario, and 20% in a higher speed BOS serves as the point of origin for 1.5 million trips across scenario. In the research team's database, departing air traffic the Atlantic, most of which fly directly from the airport, but from BOS with actual destinations in NYC, Philadelphia, and there is considerable "leakage" to other gateway airports. Look- the Washington, D.C., region constitutes about 2.0 million ing at BOS as the "logical" gateway for transatlantic travel from annual passengers (2007). Applying this range of diversions New England, note that on an annual basis about 64,000 air would lower this volume between 0.2 million and 0.4 million passengers from New England choose JFK; 55,000 choose passengers. This suggests that improved rail as far south as EWR; about 42,000 choose PHL; and 32,000 choose IAD. Washington, D.C., could lower the volume of total passen- Of the 1.5 million passengers boarding a plane at BOS for a gers boarding at BOS by 1­3%. transatlantic trip, only about 7% got to the airport by a con- necting flight. Its role as a transferring gateway to the East Coast study area is minimal, with only about 2% of airport 4.4.1.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode users transferring to airports in the East Coast study area. The and the Role of Adjacent Airports role of nearby airports in providing feeder service to BOS is Table 4.5 shows that passengers boarding at BOS are not somewhat low. Of the 10 closest airports with direct service, coming from adjacent airports, with less than 1% of its traf- three--Martha's Vineyard, Provincetown, and Nantucket-- fic associated with other New England airports. Thus, even can only be accessed by (or over) water, so they cannot be con- assuming a hypothesized rail (not planned) between Boston sidered as prime candidates for relief by new rail service. and Maine, for example, would not decrease local feeder In short, BOS does not rely on a network of New England flights. An air market does exist between BOS and Cape Cod local services to feed its longer distance services; such traffic and the Islands, but the geography is not conducive to a rail from Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont travels directly connection. An HSR connection west to Worcester and from those states to points of hubbing (e.g., Chicago, Detroit, Springfield would improve ground access for those Western Atlanta, etc.).

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80 4.4.1.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 Pennsylvania; and 2% are going to the Washington, D.C./ Baltimore region. Of all those enplaning at JFK, only 6% are Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program making trips entirely within the East Coast study area. predicts that demand for domestic originations at BOS will increase by about 75% over what the research team has reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Fore- 4.4.2.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: casts have predicted a 45% growth between 2007 and 2025. Impacts on JFK The implications of doing nothing at BOS. Given the The 6% of JFK traffic that is internal to the mega-region definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing can be examined for potential diversions. JFK currently sends with the issues addressed in this project at BOS would be about 316,000 OD passengers to the other major airports on $1.8 billion when compared against a base-case benchmark Amtrak's Northeast Corridor. Assuming an additional range condition of 100% flights on schedule, or about $1.2 billion of diversions between 10% and 20%, boardings at JFK would compared with a benchmark condition of the delay experi- decrease by 30,000­60,000 passengers. enced at BOS in the year 2003. JFK currently sends about 480,000 OD passengers to Albany, Syracuse, and Buffalo along a potential Empire Corridor HSR line. Applying the same diversion factors (with the understand- 4.4.2 John F. Kennedy International ing that Buffalo would get a diversion in the lower range), Airport (JFK) boardings at JFK might decrease by 48,000­96,000 passengers. JFK ranks sixth among airports in the United States in the Assuming HSR were implemented on both the NEC and ACI-NA ranking for 2007. Of the passengers in the DOT's OD on the Empire Corridor, the decrease in JFK total boardings database, some 17% of boardings at JFK are by people who would represent less than 1% under the higher diversion accessed the airport by a connecting flight (see Table 4.6). JFK scenarios. carries about 7.4 million passengers across the Atlantic and the Pacific, making it the largest intercontinental airport in 4.4.2.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode the study, just ahead of LAX, which has about 6.9 million and the Role of Adjacent Airports such passengers. Looking at segment ridership (which includes both feeder and OD traffic), JFK gets a small amount (28,000) of air passen- 4.4.2.1 The Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at JFK gers connecting from Albany just 145 miles away; with a larger Of all those enplaning at JFK, 10% are going to destinations contribution (190,000) from Syracuse (208 miles) from JFK. within the East Coast study area: 4% are going to destinations Hartford (106 miles), Providence (143 miles), and Manchester in New England; 4% are going to New York, New Jersey, or (199 miles) each contribute more than 20,000 air passengers. Table 4.6. Origin­destination passenger volumes at JFK (1). JFK, 2007 (JFK) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings From from Outside of From South- Total Total Originating Transfer East Coast East Coast Atlantic/ Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights StudyArea StudyArea Pacific America New England 3.6 785,829 297,990 487,839 38,940 300,140 91,478 57,281 NY, NJ, PA 4.3 934,491 583,290 351,201 29,980 239,594 56,013 25,614 Mid-Atlantic 2.0 428,277 221,960 206,317 31,830 54,554 100,182 19,751 To the South 14.7 3,208,073 2,603,270 604,803 254,390 55,559 275,574 19,280 To the West 25.1 5,470,486 4,540,380 930,106 316,940 67,046 473,038 73,082 To the North 1.0 221,079 196,956 24,123 5,438 18,495 0 190 Transatlantic 28.5 6,212,549 5,293,191 919,358 204,210 715,148 0 0 Transpacific 5.4 1,183,751 1,106,744 77,007 43,463 33,464 0 80 South-Central America 15.5 3,388,359 3,193,241 195,118 102,646 92,452 20 0 Totals 100 21,832,894 18,037,022 3,795,872 1,027,837 1,576,452 996,305 195,278

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81 Under present configurations, neither service on the Empire More detail is presented in the JFK airport passenger activity Corridor nor service on the NEC is routed to the major airport summary (Appendix A). transfer facility at Jamaica Station on Long Island. As long as this configuration exists, the role of rail to substitute for or 4.4.2.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 augment feeder services will be minimal. In terms of track geometry, trains that currently terminate Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program at NY Penn Station could be through-routed (without revers- predicts that demand for domestic originations at JFK will ing directions at Penn Station) from the Empire Corridor in increase by about 71% over what the research team has the North and from Philadelphia in the South to provide direct reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Fore- service to Jamaica Station. Questions of rail system capacity casts have predicted a 76% growth between 2007 and 2025. under the East River would need to be resolved as part of the The implications of doing nothing at JFK. Given the larger question of through-routings between the systems now definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing underway in New York. with the issues addressed in this project at JFK would be about $1.2 billion compared with a benchmark condition of 4.4.2.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights the delay experienced at JFK in the year 2003. Looking just at the enplanement with destinations across the Atlantic, about 15% of those passengers accessed the air- 4.4.3 LaGuardia Airport (LGA) port by a connecting flight. This is much lower than with a LGA airport ranks 21st in activity level among airports in the mirror situation in LAX, where about 25% of those board- United States, as ranked in the 2007 ACI-NA report. Although ing places for the Pacific have come by connecting flight. As LGA is designed as a shorter distance OD airport, passengers might be expected, those that do use JFK for a transfer to a do use it for transferring. About 8% of those boarding a flight transatlantic flight come from longer, not shorter distances. at LGA arrived there by a connecting flight (see Table 4.7). More people transfer to a transatlantic flight at JFK from the Southeast than from the entire Mega-region from Maine to Virginia. 4.4.3.1 The Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at LGA Passengers leaving JFK for Pacific destinations (including Of all those enplaning at LGA, 16% are going to destinations Hawaii) are overwhelmingly local in origin; only 6% came by within the East Coast study area: 6% are going to destinations a connecting flight. As an airport designed for longer distance in New England; 3% are going to New York, New Jersey, or trips, JFK's role as a transferring gateway to the East Coast Pennsylvania; and 6% are going to the Washington, D.C./ study area is modest, with only about 5% of airport users Baltimore region. Of all those enplaning at LGA, 13% are connecting to other airports in the East Coast study area. making trips entirely within the East Coast study area. Table 4.7. Origin­destination passenger volumes at LGA (1). LaGuardia, 2007 (LGA) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings Outside of From from East Coast East Coast From South- Total Total Originating Transfer Study Study Atlantic/ Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Area Area Pacific America New England 6.4 804,995 556,390 248,605 59,650 169,416 11,136 8,403 NY, NJ, PA 3.1 386,013 241,930 144,083 43,890 93,903 3,316 2,974 Mid-Atlantic 6.3 794,248 707,890 86,358 51,750 24,325 7,433 2,850 To the South 34.2 4,299,430 4,094,210 205,220 130,310 40,585 28,267 6,058 To the West 40.2 5,054,435 4,818,840 235,595 136,710 48,721 35,336 14,828 To the North 4.6 581,598 558,928 22,670 5,434 17,236 0 0 Atlantic/Pacific 1.8 222,999 137,511 85,488 21,885 63,603 0 0 South-Central America 3.3 417,342 382,209 35,133 14,227 20,906 0 0 Totals 100 12,561,060 11,497,908 1,063,152 463,856 191,051 85,488 35,113

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82 4.4.3.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: other gateways to finish their intercontinental trip. Its role as Impacts on LGA a transferring gateway to the East Coast study area is modest, with only about 4% of airport users transferring to other air- The 13% of LGA passengers with OD trips entirely within ports in the East Coast study area. Of those boarding a plane the East Coast Mega-region represent the market segment of at LGA to a destination in the East Coast study area, 24% were most interest in the study of rail diversion. Currently, LGA connecting from another flight. sends 1.0 million OD passengers to the major airports along Amtrak's NEC system. Applying the low- and high-diversion factors would predict a diversion of 100,000­200,000 LGA- 4.4.3.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 departing passengers to Amtrak's NEC. Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program At present, LGA sends about 79,000 air passengers with predicts that demand for domestic originations at LGA will OD trips to Rochester, Syracuse, and Buffalo, along a pos- increase by about 71% over what the research team has sible Empire Corridor HSR system. Applying the range of reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Fore- diversion factors would predict a decrease in air volumes of casts have predicted a 37% growth between 2007 and 2025 8,000­16,000 LGA-boarding passengers. If HSR improve- at LGA ments were implemented in both the NEC and the Empire Corridor, the total number of boarding passengers at LGA The implications of doing nothing at LGA. Given the might decrease between 1% and 2%. definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing with the issues addressed in this project at LGA would be 4.4.3.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode about $1.1 billion compared with a benchmark condition of and the Role of Adjacent Airports the delay experienced at LGA in the year 2003. Like JFK, LGA is not characterized by having a large net- 4.4.4 Newark Liberty International work of close-in feeder airports with direct services. Using Airport (EWR) segment data that combine OD traffic with feeder traffic, the LGA airport passenger activity summary (Appendix A) EWR ranked as the 11th most active airport in the United describes the 10 closest airports with direct service. These States in the ACI-NA survey. Unlike LGA--and to a greater include Albany (136 miles) with 10,000 annual passenger trips; extent JFK--EWR operates as a hub for connecting flight Providence (143 miles) with 17,000 trips; Ithaca (178 miles) activity. Of the passengers included in the DOT's OD sample, with 18,000 trips; and Syracuse (197 miles) with 51,000 trips. 21% of enplanements at EWR gained access to the airport by Again, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard together have 18,000 a connecting flight (see Table 4.8). trips, but their over-water trip makes them less relevant to the Of the passengers on-board flights from EWR to the East concepts of rail diversion. Coast study area, two thirds are connecting passengers, rather Unlike JFK, LGA currently has no connection to the regional than passengers with origin or destination in the Newark area. rail system. Thus, there is no immediately obvious strategy to bring rail travelers to this airport to continue the longer dis- 4.4.4.1 Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at EWR tance segment of their trip. LGA is, however, intricately intertwined with the present Of all those enplaning at EWR, 7% are going to destina- and potential role of adjacent airports. The major rise of tions within the East Coast study area: 3% are going to desti- traffic at Long Island-Macarthur Airport (ISP) in Long nations in New England; 2% are going to New York, New Island has moderated demand at both LGA and JFK. (By way Jersey, or Pennsylvania; and 2% are going to the Washington, of example, ISP sends 263,000 passengers to BWI, of which D.C./Baltimore region. Of all those enplaning at EWR, only 116,000 are OD in nature.) Similarly, the PANYNJ is under- 2% are making trips entirely within the East Coast study area. taking a major effort at present to expand the role of its newly acquired Stewart Airport. Because of the PANYNJ's domi- 4.4.4.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: nance in the major airports for the region, multijurisdictional Impacts on EWR planning there is now underway on a major scale. EWR's role in providing services within the East Coast Mega-region is small, with only 2% of its users making trips 4.4.3.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights with both origins and destinations in the corridor. Thus, the LGA plays no direct role in long-distance international potential for adjacent improvements to Amtrak to lower fights, with about 2% of its users working their way through demand at EWR is limited. Currently, about 210,000 EWR

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83 Table 4.8. Origin­destination passenger volumes at EWR (1). Newark, 2007 (EWR) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings Outside of From from East Coast From South- Total Total Originating Transfer East Coast Study Atlantic/ Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Area Pacific America New England 3.0 498,987 167,220 331,767 10,670 203,477 79,146 38,474 NY, NJ, PA 2.1 352,863 95,760 257,103 8,750 171,024 58,195 19,134 Mid-Atlantic 1.6 259,276 88,330 170,946 10,260 56,401 84,589 19,696 To the South 26.4 4,371,081 3,811,240 559,841 139,730 88,189 318,698 13,224 To the West 33.2 5,499,294 4,575,950 923,344 281,190 91,538 484,358 66,258 To the North 2.2 358,408 281,069 77,339 11,042 66,177 0 120 Transatlantic 19.3 3,190,883 2,267,337 923,546 174,854 748,692 0 0 Transpacific 3.1 516,935 415,365 101,570 47,076 54,364 0 130 South-Central America 9.1 1,501,701 1,344,455 157,246 77,304 79,662 280 0 Totals 100 16,549,428 13,046,726 3,502,702 760,876 1,559,524 1,025,266 157,036 OD passengers go to major airports in the NEC, and three nations across the Atlantic. Of those enplanements, 30% of quarters of those go to BOS. Applying the range of diversion passengers are connecting from feeder flights, making that factors, the decrease in air passengers could range from 21,000 market one of local origination by more than two-thirds. to 42,000. This would decrease total passenger boardings at EWR's role as a transferring gateway to the East Coast EWR by less than one half of 1%. study area is modest, with only about 5% of airport users connecting on to other airports in the East Coast study area. Of the passengers on board flights from EWR to the East 4.4.4.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode Coast study area, two thirds are connecting passengers, and the Role of Adjacent Airports rather than passengers with origin or destination in the The EWR Rail Station provides a high-quality transfer Newark area. capability between the airport internal circulation system EWR does not have significant OD volumes to many close- (AirTrain) and the main line of Amtrak's NEC service. In in airports--the closest is Bradley Field in Hartford, some theory, such a connection could be used to provide reliable 115 miles from EWR (with 47,000 segment passengers). feeder services to longer distance flight segments. As dis- The EWR passenger activity summary included in Appendix cussed in Section 2.5.1.3, efforts to market rails as a feeder A shows volumes for proximate airports including Albany mode to EWR have had limited success. at 143 miles, Providence at 159 miles, Syracuse at 194 miles, Realistically, through-routing of some Empire Corridor and Rochester at 246 miles. services might be required to make HSR truly serve as a feeder mode. (See Section 2.5.2 for a discussion of the difficulties in making this work.) Higher speed and more reliable service 4.4.4.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 along the NEC could strengthen feeder service patterns to Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Baltimore. Significant rail predicts that demand for domestic originations at EWR will investment in the Keystone Corridor between Harrisburg increase by about 93% over what the research team has and New York could also improve the market for feeder ser- reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Fore- vices to EWR. casts have predicted a 66% growth between 2007 and 2025. The multijurisdictional relationship between EWR and Stewart Airport is being addressed. The implications of doing nothing at EWR. Given the definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing with the issues addressed in this project at EWR would be 4.4.4.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights about $1.6 billion compared with a benchmark condition of The carriers at EWR have developed an aggressive program the delay experienced at EWR in the year 2003. This level of to build up transatlantic services over the past decades. Cur- delay potential is by far the largest of any airport in the East rently, 19% of the originating passengers at EWR have desti- Coast Mega-region.

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84 4.4.5 Philadelphia International 4.4.5.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode Airport (PHL) and the Role of Adjacent Airports PHL ranked as the 17th busiest airport for passenger activ- Some of the direct flights that feed this network come from ity in the ACI-NA 2007 survey. Of those boarding planes at airports relatively near Philadelphia. The PHL airport pas- PHL, 36% are connecting from other flights, making it the senger activity summary (in Appendix A) shows that, of the most aggressive connecting airport in the two ACRP 3-10 10 closest airports with direct service, Allentown (55 miles study areas (see Table 4.9). away) sends 40,000 passengers; Harrisburg (83 miles away) sends 60,000; Wilkes Barre­Scranton (104 miles away) sends 60,000; Salisbury, MD, (106 miles away) sends 39,000; and 4.4.5.1 Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at PHL Westchester County (116 miles away) sends 25,000. Of these present feeders, significantly improved rail service might com- Of all those enplaning at PHL, 22% are going to destina- pete effectively for feeder passengers from Harrisburg and tions within the East Coast study area: 10% are going to Westchester County. More importantly, improved rail would destinations in New England; 9% are going to New York, strengthen existing market patterns from the NEC stations in New Jersey, or Pennsylvania; and 3% are going to the Wash- New Jersey and Wilmington. ington, D.C./Baltimore region. Of all those enplaning at Given presently existing track geometry, rail service from PHL, 10% are making trips entirely within the East Coast the north, which today terminates at Philadelphia's 30th Street study area, reflecting its role as a gateway from more dis- Station, could continue on to PHL, assuming capacity issues tant origins. could be resolved on the "high-speed" line. Reportedly, con- siderations are also being given for a new airport-related stop 4.4.5.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: directly on the NEC main line. Impacts on PHL The possible roles of adjacent airports to operate in a com- plementary mode to the operations of PHL were explored in Looking first at the 10% of PHL making trips entirely Chapter 3. The kind of work program briefly initiated in the within the mega-region, 480,000 trips are made from origins analysis of Chapter 3 should be continued and expanded by in Philadelphia to destinations at major East Coast airports. the ongoing program of the Delaware Valley Regional Plan- Virtually all of these trips are from airports along the north- ning Commission. ern portion of the corridor, including Boston, Providence, and Bradley. A low-range estimate of decrease in air passen- 4.4.5.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights gers at PHL due to this diversion would be 48,000; a high range would be 96,000. These would represent a decrease of PHL relies heavily on a system of feeder connections to between three tenths of 1% and six tenths of 1% of total position itself in the markets deemed most important. Over boarding passengers at PHL. 1 million passengers board with transatlantic destinations; Table 4.9. Origin­destination passenger volumes at PHL (1). Philadelphia, 2007 (PHL) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings Outside of From from East Coast From South- Total Total Originating Transfer East Coast Study Atlantic/ Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Area Pacific America New England 9.7 1,505,299 660,820 844,479 142,300 596,696 44,286 61,197 NY, NJ, PA 9.2 1,427,940 314,290 1,113,650 188,460 772,477 85,093 67,620 Mid-Atlantic 3.1 488,810 64,630 424,180 144,560 195,350 54,764 29,506 To the South 28.5 4,432,596 3,318,690 1,113,906 745,840 195,460 159,970 12,636 To the West 34.8 5,418,630 4,194,550 1,224,080 765,660 196,069 215,130 47,221 To the North 1.7 264,031 158,589 105,442 33,543 71,809 0 90 Transatlantic 6.8 1,054,772 507,231 547,541 175,936 371,605 0 0 Transpacific 0.9 140,824 129,062 11,762 8,207 3,495 0 60 South-Central America 5.3 819,621 601,271 218,350 158,323 59,907 120 0 Totals 100 15,552,523 9,949,133 5,603,390 2,362,829 2,462,868 559,363 218,330

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85 of those, the majority (52%) have flown to PHL to make that 4.4.6.1 Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at BWI connection. Making this network system work, two thirds Of all those enplaning at BWI, 22% are going to destina- of the transferring travelers come from beyond the East Coast study area. Market share is attained from as far as the West tions within the East Coast study area: 13% are going to des- Coast (defined as California and the Northwest states), where tinations in New England; 8% are going to New York, New 132,000 trips originated in 2007. Jersey, or Pennsylvania; and 1% are going to the Washington, The role of PHL as a transferring gateway to the East Coast D.C./Baltimore region. Of all those enplaning at BWI, 16% study area is significant, with about 15% of airport users con- are making trips entirely within the East Coast study area, necting to other airports in the East Coast study area. which is high for this sample of major airports. 4.4.5.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 4.4.6.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: Impacts on BWI Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program predicts that demand for domestic originations at PHL will Currently, about 870,000 air travelers fly from origins at increase by about 68% over what the research team has BWI to destinations at airports to the north along the Amtrak reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Fore- NEC, serving NYC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachu- casts have predicted a 79% growth between 2007 and 2025. setts, and Virginia. If HSR on the NEC could divert these travelers, a decrease of 87,000­174,000 could be expected. The implications of doing nothing at PHL. Given the Currently, another 160,000 OD travelers fly from BWI to definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing Albany and Rochester on the Empire Corridor. Application of with the issues addressed in this project at PHL would be the diversion range suggests between 16,000 and 32,000 poten- $1.1 billion when compared against a base-case benchmark tial diversions to rail, assuming the Empire Service was through- condition of 100% flights on schedule, or about $0.5 billion routed to Washington, D.C. If improvements were made to compared with a benchmark condition of the delay experi- both the full NEC and the Empire Corridor (extended), the enced at PHL in the year 2003. decrease in passenger boardings at BWI due to substitution of trips could be 1­2%. 4.4.6 Baltimore Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI) 4.4.6.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode and the Role of Adjacent Airports BWI ranked 25th among airports in the United States in passenger activity in the 2007 ACI-NA survey. About 13% of BWI has a moderate-quality connection with Amtrak's enplanements at BWI are by connecting passengers, accord- NEC, with a 10-min bus trip between the rail station and the ing to the DOT's OD sample, placing it in the midrange of airport. At present, rail services at BWI are providing feeder study area airports (see Table 4.10). services, predominantly from Washington, D.C. Between 1% Table 4.10. Origin­destination passenger volumes at BWI (1). Baltimore/Washington, 2007 (BWI) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings Outside of From from East Coast From South- Total Total Originating Transfer East Coast Study Atlantic/ Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Area Pacific America New England 12.7 1,267,249 980,020 287,229 25,000 261,708 248 273 NY, NJ, PA 7.7 765,056 490,800 274,256 31,150 241,517 637 952 Mid-Atlantic 1.2 121,814 48,420 73,394 25,290 47,670 135 299 To South 28.3 2,815,842 2,503,910 311,932 245,410 63,805 2,507 210 To West 43.2 4,301,984 3,939,840 362,144 286,420 70,006 4,291 1,427 To North 0.7 69,914 68,578 1,336 295 1,041 0 0 Transatlantic 1.8 182,322 176,403 5,919 467 5,452 0 0 Transpacific 1.1 107,569 105,670 1,899 553 1,346 0 0 South-Central America 3.2 318,053 314,882 3,171 1,524 1,647 0 0 Totals 100 9,949,803 8,628,523 1,321,280 616,109 694,192 7,818 3,161

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86 and 2% of non-connecting air passengers use the rail system increase by about 80% over what the research team has to access the airport. reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Fore- Significant improvements in rail travel times could increase casts have also predicted an 80% growth between 2007 the geographic scale of the market watershed area to the north and 2025. and to the south. The analysis of the operations (particularly groundside) of The implications of doing nothing at BWI. Given the BWI have benefitted from a long-standing program at the definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments to survey with the issues addressed in this project at BWI would be all three metro-D.C. airports in one coordinated effort. As about $0.6 billion compared with a benchmark condition of discussed in Chapter 3, these efforts could be expanded into the delay experienced at BWI in the year 2003. a more complete merging of ground and air destination data, as was pioneered in the NERASP program. 4.4.7 Dulles International Airport (IAD) 4.4.6.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights IAD operates as both a center of hubbing and server of local origins in the southernmost area of the East Coast study BWI does offer limited transatlantic service, for which 97% area and ranks 22nd in passenger activity in airports in the of the passengers are of local origination. For a variety of rea- United States in the year 2007 ACI-NA survey (see Table 4.11). sons, the airport is not particularly dependent on a system of Of those trips documented in the DOT's OD survey, 33% of feeder flights to make its operations successful. IAD's enplaning passengers came to the airport on a connect- BWI's role as a transferring gateway to the East Coast study area is average, with about 6% of airport users transferring to ing flight. Thus, the role of transferring passengers in the other airports in the East Coast study area. Its primary air car- activity of the airport is slightly less than at PHL and consid- rier, Southwest Airlines, does transfer many passengers at erably higher than at either EWR or JFK. this airport, though not following in the path of a traditional dominant hubbing airport. Of the passengers at BWI going 4.4.7.1 The Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at IAD to the East Coast study area, most are not transferring: 71% of them are originating in the BWI area. Of all those enplaning at IAD, 16% are going to destinations within the East Coast study area: 7% are going to destinations in New England; 7% are going to New York, New Jersey, 4.4.6.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 or Pennsylvania; and 2% are going to the Washington, D.C./ Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program Baltimore region. Of all those enplaning at IAD, only 6% predicts that demand for domestic originations at BWI will are making trips entirely within the East Coast study area. Table 4.11. Origin­destination passenger volumes at IAD (1). Dulles, 2007 (IAD) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings Outside of From from East Coast From South- Total Total Originating Transfer East Coast Study Atlantic/ Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Area Pacific America New England 6.6 732,916 336,310 396,606 27,090 293,408 53,051 23,057 NY, NJ, PA 7.1 792,541 202,680 589,861 43,440 425,690 86,516 34,215 Mid-Atlantic 2.3 254,026 7,570 246,456 37,690 164,513 38,397 5,856 To the South 19.0 2,114,290 1,305,570 808,720 311,920 260,405 220,027 16,368 To the West 37.1 4,122,526 2,951,190 1,171,336 562,870 234,266 302,199 72,001 To the North 1.9 215,233 136,991 78,242 17,341 60,861 0 40 Transatlantic 16.9 1,879,036 1,278,306 600,730 122,374 478,356 0 0 Transpacific 3.8 424,932 325,362 99,570 55,590 43,870 0 110 South-Central America 5.2 580,579 428,942 151,637 63,128 88,389 120 0 Totals 100 11,116,079 6,972,921 4,143,158 1,241,443 2,049,758 700,310 151,647

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87 4.4.7.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: 4.4.7.5 Conditions in the Year 2025 Impacts on IAD Demand in the year 2025. The MITRE FATE program With only 6% of IAD's passengers taking trips wholly within predicts that demand for domestic originations at IAD will the East Coast Mega-region, the potential for many diversions increase by about 95% over what the research team has of trips onto Amtrak is somewhat low. reported for the year 2007. The FAA's Terminal Area Fore- IAD currently sends a total of 435,000 OD air passengers casts have predicted an unusual 129% growth between 2007 to the airports serving Amtrak's NEC (including BDL). The and 2025 at IAD. majority of these passengers are going to BOS, 412 miles away--a distance that is difficult for even the fastest HSR serv- The implications of doing nothing at IAD. Given the ices. With the understanding that modal diversion between definitions established in Chapter 1, the cost of not dealing Boston and Northern Virginia will be lower than others in with the issues addressed in this project at IAD are about this section, the same factors used in the preceding sections $80 million compared with a benchmark condition of the can be applied, gaining a range of diversions for between delay experienced at IAD in the year 2003. 43,000 and 87,000 passengers. IAD sends an additional 18,000 OD passengers to Albany 4.4.8 Washington Reagan National and Rochester. Assuming that the Empire high-speed services Airport (DCA) were through-routed on NEC high-speed services, 2,000­ 4,000 passengers could be diverted. DCA primarily serves a market of local origination, but Dulles also serves a total of 33,000 OD passengers to Nor- some passengers transfer there anyway. According to the folk, Richmond, Greensboro, and Raleigh-Durham with direct DOT's OD sample, 18% of DCA enplanements are by travel- flights. If a southern corridor HSR service were developed, ers who arrived at the airport by a connecting flight. Since rail might substitute for 3,000­6,000 air passengers. 2001, the airport operations have been characterized by var- Assuming that all of these services influence travel to the ious levels of security control procedures that make it a diffi- Northern Virginia area, a decrease in IAD total boarding of cult airport in which to make connections (see Table 4.12). less than 1% could be expected. 4.4.8.1 Role of Intra-Mega-region Traffic at DCA 4.4.7.3 Rail as a Complementary Mode Of all those enplaning at DCA, 23% are going to destinations and the Role of Adjacent Airports within the East Coast study area: 10% are going to destinations IAD is not located near proposed HSR services in the region. in New England; 12% are going to New York, New Jersey, For this reason, a major role for rail in providing feeder ser- or Pennsylvania; and 1% are going to the Washington, D.C./ vices to longer segment air services is highly unlikely. As noted, Baltimore region. Of all those enplaning at DCA, 16% are IAD could benefit from the more complete integration of avi- making trips entirely within the East Coast study area, which ation and ground destination data pioneered in the NERASP is high for this sample of major airports. program in New England. 4.4.8.2 Rail as a Substitution for Air Travel: 4.4.7.4 Feeding Longer Distance Flights Impacts on DCA About 1.9 million enplanements are to destinations across As can be seen from the data, DCA is more oriented to the the Atlantic, which is higher than at BOS or PHL but lower travel of the East Coast Mega-region than its longer distance than at LAX, EWR, or JFK. Two thirds of those Atlantic-bound partner, IAD. DCA currently sends more than 1.1 million OD passengers are from local origination, with one third from the air passengers to the airports of Amtrak's NEC. With the largest feeder network. single portion going to NYC airports, this market is prime for IAD's role as a transferring gateway to the East Coast study diversion to improved HSR services. A range of diversions area is significant, with about 11% of airport users transfer- would see between 110,000 and 220,000 additional air pas- ring to other airports in the East Coast study area. The IAD sengers diverted in this major market for HSR. passenger activity summary in Appendix A shows there are To Empire Corridor destinations such as Albany, Syracuse, several close-in airports providing feeder services to IAD. and Rochester, DCA currently sends nearly 70,000 OD pas- Charlottesville, VA, is 77 miles to the south; Harrisburg, PA, sengers. Assuming the through-routing of Empire Corridor is 94 miles to the north; and State College, PA, is 128 miles trains to the NEC destinations, 7,000­14,000 diversions are to the northwest. possible.