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45 The risk identification process should begin with a review Monitor Identify of any risks identified during previous planning phase analy- and Control ses or estimates as projects can remain in the planning phase for many years. When no previous analyses or estimates are Risk available, the risk identification projects can begin with a re- Management view of the current planning report and cost estimate with Assess/ a focus on the assumptions that were used to generate these Allocate Process Analyze reports and estimates. It should be noted that planning phase project scopes can vary greatly and the risk analysis and assessment varies with Mitigate and Plan the scope accordingly. Those projects that are identified early in the planning phase have minimal scope definition and pro- Figure 5.1. Risk management focus vide challenges for conducting detailed risk analyses. Projects in the planning phase. with clearly identified scopes near the end of the planning phase can benefit more from rigorous risk analysis and the applica- 5.2 Planning Phase tion of defined contingency estimates. Risk Identification As stated in Chapter 3, risk identification is paramount to 5.2.2 Planning Phase Risk successful risk management and contingency estimation at Identification Tools the planning phase. The objectives of risk identification are: Risk identification tools that can be used in the planning 1) to identify and categorize risks that could affect the project phase are listed in Table 5.1. Note that complex projects can and 2) to document these risks. The outcome of the risk iden- use all risk identification tools. Refer to the Appendix A for tification is a list of risks. Ideally, the list of risks should be complete tool descriptions. comprehensive and non-overlapping. This list of risks can be the basis for estimating project contingency and setting the baseline cost estimate. Please refer to Chapter 3, Section 3.4.1 5.2.3 Planning Phase Risk regarding risk identification, specifically regarding: Identification Outputs The key risk identification output is a list of risks. In its sim- Why risk identification should stop short of risk assessment; plest form, the list of risks may take the form of a Red Flag The appropriate level of detail for risk identification; and Item list (I2.1). On some moderately complex and most major When and how to apply risk checklists. projects near the end of the planning phase, the list of risks 5.2.1 Planning Phase Risk Identification Inputs Table 5.1. Planning phase risk identification tools. The planning phase defines overarching transportation needs, groups of projects, and/or individual unique proj- Tool Moderately Complex ects. The determination of project risk stems from a review Minor Major (N/A) of the planning assumptions made by the planning team and the estimating assumptions made by the project estima- tor. The planning team will necessarily make broad assump- I2.1 Red Flag Items tions of transportation needs to define the groups or projects. I2.3 Risk Checklists Likewise, the estimator will need to make estimating assump- I2.4 Assumption Analysis tions at a very high level. These assumptions often will be in I2.5 Expert Interviews the form of a cost per lane mile on projects very early in the I2.6 Crawford Slip Method planning process. Projects that are identified later in the plan- I2.7 SWOT Analysis ning phase, but before they enter programming, may have R3.1 Risk Management Plan more detail (e.g., estimate of structure size, right of way pur- R3.6 Risk Workshops chase required, etc.), but these projects generally have to be R3.11 Risk Breakdown Structure estimated in a very conceptual manner. Planning and esti- R3.12 Risk Register mating assumptions serve as triggers for risk identification.