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Appendixes

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A Statement of Task 1. The committee will review the most recent and/or most complete technology assessments and cost estimates for the production of liquid trans- portation fuels from coal, oil shale, natural gas, petroleum from enhanced oil recovery, and tar sands. Consultants will be used to help the committee in this process. 2. The committee will conduct workshops as needed to evaluate the work of the consultants and to assess the cost estimates and the various R&D opportunities that exist to reduce the costs of the conversion technolo- gies. Experts will be invited to these workshops as appropriate. 3. The committee will develop a summary assessment of each technol- ogy with regard to (1) the stage of technology development relative to that needed for commercial deployment, (2) the credibility of the cost estimates based on the nature of the estimate and the stage of technology develop- ment, (3) the "fit" between the characteristics of the products produced and marketable liquid fuel requirements, and (4) the potential for improved technology and cost reduction based on continuing R&D. 4. The committee will assess the potential commercial impact of each technology based on the above findings. 5. The committee will identify the major technical and other barriers to the commercial deployment of each technology, including supply, distribu- tion, environmental, delivery, and end-use considerations. 6. The committee will estimate the time frmne in which each technology would be expected to be commercially deployed. These judgments should be based on the most recent petroleum and gas supply, demand, and price projections provided by the Energy Information Administration in its yearly Annual Energy Outlook volume. 133

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134 APPENDIX A 7. The committee will prepare a S-year overall strategic and program plan for a "broad research program" for liquid transportation fuels based on plentiful supplies of domestic resources. This plan is not intended to be an implementation plan that would include specific R&D tasks, milestones, and associated funding.