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7 of CaliforniaBerkeley, found that values for single fam- by zoning), within a fine-grained block-by-block area around ily homes within 900 ft of light rail stations in Santa Clara Portland's first streetcar segment. The study found that the County were 10.8% lower than comparable homes located amount of new development captured near the streetcar line farther away, and no value premium could be identified for grew after streetcar operations commenced, and that the type commercial properties within 0.50 mi of BART stations in of development near the streetcar also became denser, com- the East Bay of the San Francisco Bay Area (5). pared with development patterns along the streetcar route before its construction. This often-cited work, described in One of the most thorough analyses conducted after 2000, more detail in chapter four, "Case Studies," for Portland's when contemporary fixed guideway transit systems had streetcar, ends with a clear statement that causality needs to established their resurgence as a modern, desirable form be further analyzed, because other factors were in play dur- of transportation in urban America, was conducted by Dr. ing the period of the streetcar's construction in downtown Robert Cervero at the University of CaliforniaBerkeley. Portland. This study, a survey of other studies covering housing value premiums associated with fixed guideway transit, found that among the seven locations (Philadelphia, Boston, Portland, Economic Development Impacts San Diego, Chicago, Dallas, and Santa Clara County), value premiums ranged from 6.4% to more than 40% (6 ). The Because streetcar planning is experiencing a resurgence in authors concluded that value premiums depended on a vari- the United States, the literature contains several published ety of factors, including traffic congestion, local real estate projections of economic development benefits anticipated market conditions, and business cycles. by future streetcar development in specific cities. However, the methodologies used, and the resulting components of the Transit in Europe also can provide insight to ways of estimated benefits, generally are not well described beyond measuring value capture. A study of 15 light rail systems in the creation of construction jobs. Levine et al. is an excep- France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and North America tion in its use of an inputoutput model to estimate economic measured housing prices, residential rent, office rent, and impacts from a proposed light rail line (9). property values in each of the cities, concluding that a pos- itive value premium was evident in all but two cities (7 ). The literature regarding empirical measurement of actual These two cities initially experienced negative value impacts changes in economic activity, such as changes in retail sales, from fixed guideway transit because of the noise associated visitors, or job growth, is almost nonexistent for streetcars. with the light rail system. Indeed, this lack of empirical data was cited by many of the streetcar system survey respondents described in this report. One key aspect of this literature is the separation of fixed One of the few identified published articles, by Crampton, guideway transit's impacts on existing real estate versus its describes in very broad terms the findings of other studies impacts on new development. In many situations, once a of streetcars (trams) and light rail systems, and contrasts the fixed guideway transit system is planned, local governments experience in French and German cities with those in Brit- also increase zoning densities or implement policies that ain and North America (10 ). He makes a contrast between increase the density of allowable development. This makes French systems that explicitly seek to connect city centers sense, because fixed guideway transit moves people without and outlying high density residential areas, but have limited creating commensurate automobile traffic impacts. Studies potential for new development, versus British or U.S. sys- of value premiums, however, often have to control the analy- tems that often seek to use available rail rights-of-way, which sis for changes in zoning (to allow for denser development) tend to be located in industrial or other areas that present a and the effects of related development policies. Conversely, challenge for generating ridership, but offer greater potential increases in allowable development through denser zoning, for attracting development (although this benefit is likely to even in the absence of fixed guideway transit, almost always only be captured in a strong economy). Crampton shows that result in a higher land value, because a developer can build trams can attract more shoppers and generate higher growth more units on the same site under these increased density in property prices and rents. He notes, however, that these conditions. factors vary between different towns, for reasons that are not yet fully understood or empirically analyzed (10 ). Amount And Density Of New Development Summary Of Literature Limitations One of the only quantitative studies specifically about mod- ern streetcar impacts is the Portland Streetcar Development The literature on impacts on the built environment over- Impacts (8). This analysis of the Portland streetcar system whelmingly focuses on heavy rail and light rail systems. measures the amount of new development and its density The only study with quantitative analysis of a contempo- (measured by amount built compared with amount allowed rary streetcar system's impacts can be found in Portland

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8 Streetcar Development Impacts (8). As described in more with substantial redevelopment incentives, and limits on the detail in this report, the study's findings are not necessar- study's analysis of causality. Given that federal funding for ily applicable to other U.S. streetcar systems, owing to the streetcars emphasizes economic development, along with unique presence in Portland of an Urban Growth Boundary many local policymakers' objectives to stimulate economic (UGB) constraining development at the region's edge (push- development, the literature is particularly weak on impacts ing development into the center), the presence of a frame- of streetcars on economic development, such as the attrac- work for urban renewal [Urban Renewal Areas (URAs)] tion of jobs, retail sales, and tax revenue.