Handbook to Assess the Impacts of Constrained Parking at Airports (2010)

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28 Several methodologies for predicting when airport public parking will become constrained are discussed in this chap- ter. By establishing or improving the predictive tools used to identify when parking constraints are likely to occur, parking operations staff will be better prepared to manage the situa- tion, and strategies can be implemented prior to and during the constrained period—whether ongoing or occasional—to reduce the effects of constrained parking on the airport and its parking customers. Prediction methodologies fall into the following three gen- eral categories: • Tracking historical parking patterns, • Projecting airline passenger activity, and • Possessing operational experience and knowledge of park- ing patterns. Airport operators and others conducting analyses on their behalf (such as parking management companies and consul- tants) often use a combination of all three methodologies to predict future parking constraints. Historical Parking Patterns Airports often experience public parking constraints because of increased activity in certain customer segments, such as the following: • Business airline passengers on a specific weekday, such as a Tuesday; • Nonbusiness airline passengers during holiday periods, such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s Day, and Easter; • Nonbusiness airline passengers during school vacation peri- ods, such as spring break, summer vacation, or holidays; and • Nonbusiness airline passengers on weekends, especially long weekends. Parking facility utilization data can be analyzed in detail to obtain information pertaining to the duration, location, and severity of historical constraints, which can then be used to pre- dict the duration, location, and severity of future constraints. The historical data are most effectively interpreted in the con- text of historical enplaned passenger data to develop a relation- ship between airline passenger activity and parking activity. No single indicator can be used by all airport operators to predict future constrained parking situations, whether they are temporary events or sustained periods of time when parking is routinely unavailable to all customers who wish to park. Air- port operators must develop an understanding of the unique demand characteristics for parking at their facilities. Airport operators must recognize trends or market changes that may lead to more frequent or more sustained constrained parking periods and proactively adjust strategies used to manage the constrained parking situation at the airport. Several methodologies used by airport operators to predict future constrained parking events are discussed in the remain- der of this section. Some of the data can be obtained from the parking revenue control system, while the collection of other data requires manual or computer-assisted inventories of parking facilities. In many cases, these manual or computer- assisted inventories (e.g., daily license plate inventories of parked vehicles) of parking facilities are routinely conducted. It is important that airport operators identify the data that are most useful to understanding the constraints at their airports and ensure that the needed data are captured and archived for future use and interpretation. Monitor Parking Occupancy Data by Facility Parking occupancy data, such as overnight counts by facil- ity, can be used as a benchmark to understand trends related to constrained parking conditions. For example, an overnight occupancy count reaching a certain percentage of the facility’s capacity may be a good indicator that the facility will be con- strained the next day. C H A P T E R 4 Predicting Public Parking Constraints

29 Monitor Exits by Facility Vehicle exits by facility by length of stay can be used to iden- tify a trend toward constrained parking conditions. These data provide information on changes in the turnover of parking spaces in a facility. Lower than normal turnover during busy periods, even without a large increase in activity, is one cause of parking constraint. In this example, constrained parking conditions may be attributed to airline passengers parking for longer durations than during unconstrained periods. Get Information on Previous Constrained Parking Events Tracking and monitoring parking data during previous peri- ods of constrained parking, by using data on parking operations staff resources deployed to manage the constrained operation or data from the parking revenue control system, can be use- ful in predicting the frequency, nature, and consequences of future constrained operations for similar time periods. Data that may be collected and reviewed include the following: • The number of days that overflow parking is required, • The duration of each overflow event, • The number of automobiles parked in excess of functional capacity by facility and by time of day, • The duration of closures by facility, • The number of days until the majority of automobiles were retrieved from overflow parking, • The number of automobiles that were directed to privately operated parking facilities, • Personnel overtime hours and days, • Overflow shuttle service hours, and • Hours of operation of overflow parking facilities. Passenger Projections Information on future flight bookings or other estimates of upcoming passenger activity can be used to project parking demand and periods when parking may become constrained. This information is useful when considered in conjunction with historical information on busy parking periods (as dis- cussed in the previous section). Flight booking information can be obtained from the airlines; such information is propri- etary, so it may not always be available to the airport operator. This information is most useful for near-term projections given the nature of airline passenger bookings. A comparison of changes in historical parking data to changes in airline pas- senger activity for the same time periods enables the analyst to determine changes that may be related to parking constraints and disregard changes that are related to fluctuations in airline passenger activity. This is referred to as normalizing the data. Operational Experience and Knowledge Personnel involved in airport public parking management and operations develop a general understanding of parking pat- terns based on experience. This knowledge assists these person- nel in anticipating and planning for constrained parking events, and it is invaluable when interpreting historical data and pro- jecting demand to predict future constrained parking events. Predicting Parking Constraints at Tulsa International Airport The Tulsa Airport Authority reviews overnight counts in the garage adjacent to the terminal area at Tulsa International Airport to predict overflow conditions. When overnight occupancy reaches 75% of capacity, the garage is likely to experience constrained conditions the next day. (15) Predicting Parking Constraints at Bob Hope Airport The Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena Airport Authority and its parking management operator project trends in parking facility use at Bob Hope Airport (BUR) by reviewing future airline bookings. The airlines share proprietary booking information with the authority and the parking operator on a regular basis. Strategies for dealing with constrained parking are based on this information, as well as experience, since passenger numbers do not always equate to parking exits. Depending on the type of event (e.g., holiday, weekday peak), different mixes of curbside traffic and parking exits will result. Parking staff pay attention to travel trends, such as when large conferences are happening in Las Vegas, since BUR is a Las Vegas gateway. (9)

30 Predicting Parking Constraints at Chicago O’Hare International Airport The City of Chicago Department of Aviation and its parking management operator track several parameters related to historical public parking activity at Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). These parameters, along with future airline bookings (proprietary information from the airlines), have proven useful in predicting future busy periods in which parking demand may approach or exceed the number of parking spaces in service in particular facilities. The historical information tracked includes the number of closures and hours closed by parking facility by month. These data are maintained for several years and presented in both tabular and bar chart formats to facilitate comparison and interpretation of the data. (2) An example of historical data used to track the number of parking facility closures by month and to predict future parking constraints is presented below. The example presented below is based on the format used at ORD, but data are for illustration purposes only. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 JA N F EB MA R A PR MA Y J UN JU L A UG SEP OC T N OV DE C Month N um be r o f C lo su re s Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 JA N F EB MA R A PR MA Y J UN JU L A UG SE P O CT NO V D EC TOTAL Year 1 1 3 5 4 6 7 5 0 0 2 3 5 41 Year 2 5 6 6 7 5 6 4 3 2 2 4 5 55 Year 3 6 7 8 6 6 5 4 2 3 3 4 4 58 Year 4 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 2 3 59 Year 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 1 2 35 Representative data for illustration purposes only.

Predicting Parking Constraints at Portland International Airport The Port of Portland tracks parking activity at Portland International Airport on a daily basis and projects potential peak parking times by reviewing historical parking data and by comparing the data to proprietary booking information received from the airlines. Port of Portland staff have a sense of the busiest times for parking based on past activity. They develop graphs to project future activity. In 2006 and 2007, if overnight counts in the garage reached 1,700 to 1,800 auto- mobiles, slightly higher than 50% of capacity, it was a good indication the garage would reach capacity by noon the next day. The following chart was developed by the Port of Portland to track the average overnight vehicle count by month, as well as the peak overnight vehicle count for each month, and the noon peak count for each month for all close-in parking. This chart consolidates occupancy information for the garage and the long-term lot, which are in the terminal area and are served by shuttle bus service. (12) Sample Tracking Data—Average and Peak Overnight Occupancy and Peak Noon Occupancy by Month for Terminal Area Parking Facilities at Portland International Airport (17) 31