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NCFRP NATIONAL COOPERATIVE FREIGHT RESEARCH PROGRAM REPORT 8 Sponsored by the Research and Innovative Technology Freight-Demand Modeling Administration to Support Public-Sector Decision Making

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2010 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* OFFICERS CHAIR: Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington VICE CHAIR: Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board MEMBERS J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles Eugene A. Conti, Jr., Secretary of Transportation, North Carolina DOT, Raleigh Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, and Director, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Virginia, Charlottesville Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, MN Paula J. Hammond, Secretary, Washington State DOT, Olympia Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Corporate Traffic, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Mandeville, LA Steven T. Scalzo, Chief Operating Officer, Marine Resources Group, Seattle, WA Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO Beverly A. Scott, General Manager and Chief Executive Officer, Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, Atlanta, GA David Seltzer, Principal, Mercator Advisors LLC, Philadelphia, PA Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies; and Interim Director, Energy Efficiency Center, University of California, Davis Kirk T. Steudle, Director, Michigan DOT, Lansing Douglas W. Stotlar, President and CEO, Con-Way, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Peter H. Appel, Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S.DOT J. Randolph Babbitt, Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA George Bugliarello, President Emeritus and University Professor, Polytechnic Institute of New York University, Brooklyn; Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC Anne S. Ferro, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S.DOT LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC David T. Matsuda, Deputy Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S.DOT Victor M. Mendez, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC Robert J. Papp (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC Cynthia L. Quarterman, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Peter M. Rogoff, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S.DOT David L. Strickland, Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S.DOT Polly Trottenberg, Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy, U.S.DOT Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC *Membership as of July 2010.

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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE FREIGHT RESEARCH PROGRAM NCFRP REPORT 8 Freight-Demand Modeling to Support Public-Sector Decision Making CAMBRIDGE SYSTEMATICS, INC. Cambridge, MA AND GEOSTATS, LLP Atlanta, GA Subscriber Categories Data and Information Technology Freight Transportation Marine Transportation Motor Carriers Planning and Forecasting Policy Railroads Research sponsored by the Research and Innovative Technology Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2010 www.TRB.org

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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE FREIGHT NCFRP REPORT 8 RESEARCH PROGRAM America's freight transportation system makes critical contributions Project NCFRP-6 to the nation's economy, security, and quality of life. The freight ISSN 1947-5659 transportation system in the United States is a complex, decentralized, ISBN 978-0-309-15513-7 and dynamic network of private and public entities, involving all Library of Congress Control Number 2010938056 modes of transportation--trucking, rail, waterways, air, and pipelines. 2010 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. In recent years, the demand for freight transportation service has been increasing fueled by growth in international trade; however, bottlenecks or congestion points in the system are exposing the COPYRIGHT INFORMATION inadequacies of current infrastructure and operations to meet the Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining growing demand for freight. Strategic operational and investment written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously decisions by governments at all levels will be necessary to maintain published or copyrighted material used herein. freight system performance, and will in turn require sound technical Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this guidance based on research. publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, The National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) is FMCSA, FTA, RITA, or PHMSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. a cooperative research program sponsored by the Research and It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not- Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) under Grant No. for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DTOS59-06-G-00039 and administered by the Transportation Research Board (TRB). The program was authorized in 2005 with the passage of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). On September 6, 2006, a contract to NOTICE begin work was executed between RITA and The National Academies. The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Freight The NCFRP will carry out applied research on problems facing the Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. freight industry that are not being adequately addressed by existing The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this research programs. report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. Program guidance is provided by an Oversight Committee comprised The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to of a representative cross section of freight stakeholders appointed by procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. the National Research Council of The National Academies. The NCFRP Oversight Committee meets annually to formulate the research The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. funding levels and expected products. Research problem statements The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research recommending research needs for consideration by the Oversight Council, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Freight Research Program do not Committee are solicited annually, but may be submitted to TRB at any endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear herein solely time. Each selected project is assigned to a panel, appointed by TRB, because they are considered essential to the object of the report. which provides technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. Heavy emphasis is placed on including members representing the intended users of the research products. The NCFRP will produce a series of research reports and other products such as guidebooks for practitioners. Primary emphasis will be placed on disseminating NCFRP results to the intended end-users of the research: freight shippers and carriers, service providers, suppliers, and public officials. Published reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE FREIGHT RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at: http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS CRP STAFF FOR NCFRP REPORT 8 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs William C. Rogers, Senior Program Officer Charlotte Thomas, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Hilary Freer, Senior Editor NCFRP PROJECT 6 PANEL Freight Research Projects Michael D. Meyer, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Chair) Thomas M. Corsi, University of Maryland, College Park, MD Scott R. Drumm, Port of Portland (OR), Portland, OR Charles Foster, Oakland Port Authority, Hercules, CA James Gosnell, Los Angeles, CA Dexter Muller, Memphis Regional Chamber, Memphis, TN Catherine Petersen, C J Petersen & Associates, St. Paul, MN Ronald J. Duych, RITA Liaison Rolf R. Schmitt, FHWA Liaison Caesar Singh, RITA Liaison Elaine King, TRB Liaison

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FOREWORD By William C. Rogers Staff Officer Transportation Research Board NCFRP Report 8: Freight-Demand Modeling to Support Public-Sector Decision Making presents an evaluation of possible improvements in freight demand models and other analy- sis tools and provides a guidebook to assist model developers in implementing these improvements. The report is especially valuable for its findings of general satisfaction with methods available to support freight planning, but concerns with the data available to sup- port that planning. As such, the report focuses on ways to use existing data to develop data inputs for the model, showing that existing and readily available data can be used to develop the inputs required by freight models. The report will enable decisionmakers at a range of geographical levels to improve the usability of freight demand models. While the private sector is largely responsible for developing and managing the nation's freight flow system, public agencies at all levels face important investment and policy deci- sions that may affect those flows. As a result, many states, metropolitan planning organiza- tions, regional agencies, and federal government agencies have undertaken their own mod- eling efforts in order to better understand the large and shifting increases in traffic in the nation's freight flows. Given the projected growth in freight and its importance to national, state, and regional economies, public-sector agencies need improved capabilities to analyze freight demand. Under NCFRP Project 6, Cambridge Systematics was asked to (1) investigate, identify, and report on high-priority, high-payoff improvements in freight-demand models and other analysis tools; (2) conduct further research on a selected number of these improve- ments; and (3) develop a guidebook to assist model developers in implementing these improvements. To accomplish the project objectives, the research team (1) developed a framework for categorizing how current models are used; (2) interviewed public decisionmakers to gauge their satisfaction with current models; (3) conducted research on critical gaps in existing models to advance the state of freight modeling in the short term; and (4) developed a guidebook that describes a process that could be followed in the development and applica- tion of freight forecasts to support public decision making.

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CONTENTS 1 Summary 6 Chapter 1 Introduction 7 Chapter 2 Current Needs and Practices 7 2.1 Overview of Outreach Efforts 7 2.2 Public-Sector Freight Analysis Needs and Available Tools 10 2.3 Gaps, Issues, and Challenges 13 Chapter 3 Research to Fill Critical Gaps 13 3.1 Topics Selected for Further Research 14 3.2 Topics Not Selected for Further Research 16 3.3 Truck Trip Generation, Distribution, and Chaining Information 22 3.4 Consideration of Temporal and Seasonal Impacts 32 3.5 Developing Mode-Choice Models for Freight Forecasting 46 Chapter 4 Guidebook 46 4.1 Step Outline 57 4.2 New Methods to Generate Freight Demand and Performance 58 Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.