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NCFRP
NATIONAL
COOPERATIVE
FREIGHT
RESEARCH
PROGRAM
REPORT 8
Sponsored by the
Research and
Innovative Technology
Freight-Demand Modeling Administration
to Support Public-Sector
Decision Making
OCR for page R2
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2010 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*
OFFICERS
CHAIR: Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington
VICE CHAIR: Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board
MEMBERS
J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY
Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg
Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson
Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA
William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles
Eugene A. Conti, Jr., Secretary of Transportation, North Carolina DOT, Raleigh
Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, and Director, Center for Transportation Studies, University of
Virginia, Charlottesville
Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, MN
Paula J. Hammond, Secretary, Washington State DOT, Olympia
Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC
Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City
Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka
Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson
Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Corporate Traffic, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Mandeville, LA
Steven T. Scalzo, Chief Operating Officer, Marine Resources Group, Seattle, WA
Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO
Beverly A. Scott, General Manager and Chief Executive Officer, Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, Atlanta, GA
David Seltzer, Principal, Mercator Advisors LLC, Philadelphia, PA
Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies; and Interim
Director, Energy Efficiency Center, University of California, Davis
Kirk T. Steudle, Director, Michigan DOT, Lansing
Douglas W. Stotlar, President and CEO, Con-Way, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI
C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin
EX OFFICIO MEMBERS
Peter H. Appel, Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S.DOT
J. Randolph Babbitt, Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT
Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA
George Bugliarello, President Emeritus and University Professor, Polytechnic Institute of New York University, Brooklyn; Foreign Secretary,
National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC
Anne S. Ferro, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S.DOT
LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC
Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC
John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC
David T. Matsuda, Deputy Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S.DOT
Victor M. Mendez, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT
William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC
Robert J. Papp (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC
Cynthia L. Quarterman, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S.DOT
Peter M. Rogoff, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S.DOT
David L. Strickland, Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S.DOT
Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S.DOT
Polly Trottenberg, Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy, U.S.DOT
Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC
*Membership as of July 2010.
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE FREIGHT RESEARCH PROGRAM
NCFRP REPORT 8
Freight-Demand Modeling
to Support Public-Sector
Decision Making
CAMBRIDGE SYSTEMATICS, INC.
Cambridge, MA
AND
GEOSTATS, LLP
Atlanta, GA
Subscriber Categories
Data and Information Technology · Freight Transportation · Marine Transportation · Motor Carriers
Planning and Forecasting · Policy · Railroads
Research sponsored by the Research and Innovative Technology Administration
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
WASHINGTON, D.C.
2010
www.TRB.org
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE FREIGHT NCFRP REPORT 8
RESEARCH PROGRAM
America's freight transportation system makes critical contributions Project NCFRP-6
to the nation's economy, security, and quality of life. The freight ISSN 1947-5659
transportation system in the United States is a complex, decentralized, ISBN 978-0-309-15513-7
and dynamic network of private and public entities, involving all Library of Congress Control Number 2010938056
modes of transportation--trucking, rail, waterways, air, and pipelines. © 2010 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
In recent years, the demand for freight transportation service has
been increasing fueled by growth in international trade; however,
bottlenecks or congestion points in the system are exposing the COPYRIGHT INFORMATION
inadequacies of current infrastructure and operations to meet the
Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining
growing demand for freight. Strategic operational and investment written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously
decisions by governments at all levels will be necessary to maintain published or copyrighted material used herein.
freight system performance, and will in turn require sound technical Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this
guidance based on research. publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the
understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA,
The National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) is
FMCSA, FTA, RITA, or PHMSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice.
a cooperative research program sponsored by the Research and It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-
Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) under Grant No. for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or
reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP.
DTOS59-06-G-00039 and administered by the Transportation Research
Board (TRB). The program was authorized in 2005 with the passage of
the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A
Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). On September 6, 2006, a contract to NOTICE
begin work was executed between RITA and The National Academies. The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Freight
The NCFRP will carry out applied research on problems facing the Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of
the Governing Board of the National Research Council.
freight industry that are not being adequately addressed by existing
The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this
research programs.
report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
Program guidance is provided by an Oversight Committee comprised The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to
of a representative cross section of freight stakeholders appointed by procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved
by the Governing Board of the National Research Council.
the National Research Council of The National Academies. The NCFRP
Oversight Committee meets annually to formulate the research The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the
researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation
program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors.
funding levels and expected products. Research problem statements
The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research
recommending research needs for consideration by the Oversight Council, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Freight Research Program do not
Committee are solicited annually, but may be submitted to TRB at any endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear herein solely
time. Each selected project is assigned to a panel, appointed by TRB, because they are considered essential to the object of the report.
which provides technical guidance and counsel throughout the life
of the project. Heavy emphasis is placed on including members
representing the intended users of the research products.
The NCFRP will produce a series of research reports and other
products such as guidebooks for practitioners. Primary emphasis will
be placed on disseminating NCFRP results to the intended end-users of
the research: freight shippers and carriers, service providers, suppliers,
and public officials.
Published reports of the
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE FREIGHT RESEARCH PROGRAM
are available from:
Transportation Research Board
Business Office
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001
and can be ordered through the Internet at:
http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore
Printed in the United States of America
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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS
CRP STAFF FOR NCFRP REPORT 8
Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs
Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs
William C. Rogers, Senior Program Officer
Charlotte Thomas, Senior Program Assistant
Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications
Hilary Freer, Senior Editor
NCFRP PROJECT 6 PANEL
Freight Research Projects
Michael D. Meyer, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Chair)
Thomas M. Corsi, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Scott R. Drumm, Port of Portland (OR), Portland, OR
Charles Foster, Oakland Port Authority, Hercules, CA
James Gosnell, Los Angeles, CA
Dexter Muller, Memphis Regional Chamber, Memphis, TN
Catherine Petersen, C J Petersen & Associates, St. Paul, MN
Ronald J. Duych, RITA Liaison
Rolf R. Schmitt, FHWA Liaison
Caesar Singh, RITA Liaison
Elaine King, TRB Liaison
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FOREWORD
By William C. Rogers
Staff Officer
Transportation Research Board
NCFRP Report 8: Freight-Demand Modeling to Support Public-Sector Decision Making
presents an evaluation of possible improvements in freight demand models and other analy-
sis tools and provides a guidebook to assist model developers in implementing these
improvements. The report is especially valuable for its findings of general satisfaction with
methods available to support freight planning, but concerns with the data available to sup-
port that planning. As such, the report focuses on ways to use existing data to develop data
inputs for the model, showing that existing and readily available data can be used to develop
the inputs required by freight models. The report will enable decisionmakers at a range of
geographical levels to improve the usability of freight demand models.
While the private sector is largely responsible for developing and managing the nation's
freight flow system, public agencies at all levels face important investment and policy deci-
sions that may affect those flows. As a result, many states, metropolitan planning organiza-
tions, regional agencies, and federal government agencies have undertaken their own mod-
eling efforts in order to better understand the large and shifting increases in traffic in the
nation's freight flows. Given the projected growth in freight and its importance to national,
state, and regional economies, public-sector agencies need improved capabilities to analyze
freight demand.
Under NCFRP Project 6, Cambridge Systematics was asked to (1) investigate, identify,
and report on high-priority, high-payoff improvements in freight-demand models and
other analysis tools; (2) conduct further research on a selected number of these improve-
ments; and (3) develop a guidebook to assist model developers in implementing these
improvements.
To accomplish the project objectives, the research team (1) developed a framework for
categorizing how current models are used; (2) interviewed public decisionmakers to gauge
their satisfaction with current models; (3) conducted research on critical gaps in existing
models to advance the state of freight modeling in the short term; and (4) developed a
guidebook that describes a process that could be followed in the development and applica-
tion of freight forecasts to support public decision making.
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CONTENTS
1 Summary
6 Chapter 1 Introduction
7 Chapter 2 Current Needs and Practices
7 2.1 Overview of Outreach Efforts
7 2.2 Public-Sector Freight Analysis Needs and Available Tools
10 2.3 Gaps, Issues, and Challenges
13 Chapter 3 Research to Fill Critical Gaps
13 3.1 Topics Selected for Further Research
14 3.2 Topics Not Selected for Further Research
16 3.3 Truck Trip Generation, Distribution, and Chaining Information
22 3.4 Consideration of Temporal and Seasonal Impacts
32 3.5 Developing Mode-Choice Models for Freight Forecasting
46 Chapter 4 Guidebook
46 4.1 Step Outline
57 4.2 New Methods to Generate Freight Demand and Performance
58 Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations
Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale
for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.
