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26 CHAPTER 3 Findings This chapter is based on an analysis of the information and where the net benefit was the ultimate trucking productivity literature presented in the preceding Chapter, to obtain an benefit less increased road and bridge costs after transition. understanding of the impacts resulting from the changes in Scenario B resulted in an estimated net benefit of about $165 Canadian truck size and weight regulations on trucking in million, and the difference from the other two scenarios was Canada, and in cross-border trucking. This consists of the principally due to the shorter semitrailer length. following steps: The two national railways together estimated annual losses ranging from $108 to $192 million for the three scenarios. · Economic impacts; The study considered these to be reasonable estimates, on the · Estimates of the changes in truck fleet size and the mix of assumption that other changes would not occur. configurations; A survey of carriers and shippers showed that they would For the domestic fleet, and as it was affected by the regu- immediately take advantage of whatever regulatory scenario lations in U.S. Border States. would be put in place. Impacts that were not anticipated; For other impacts, it was concluded there would be a mod- Cost recovery; and est benefit to highway safety, that railways would develop new Changes in compliance and enforcement; equipment to facilitate intermodal operations, and that there · U.S. truck size and weight regulation; and would be small impacts on energy use, the environment, and · Application of Canadian experience to the United States. traffic, even if the full diversion from rail occurred. A second study was commissioned by the Task Force on Ve- hicle Weights and Dimensions Policy, 5 years after the M.o.U. 3.1 Economic Impacts was put in place. It essentially followed the form of the previous The CCMTA/RTAC Committee on Vehicle Weights and study,exceptitdidnotconsider the impacts on the railways (63). Dimensions commissioned a study of the potential economic This study estimated annual net benefits of about $142 mil- impacts of changes to size and weight regulations in 1986 and lion for 1992, $180 million for 1997, and $222 million for 1987--after completion of the Vehicle Weights and Dimen- 2002, in 1992 Canadian dollars, for operations on the Cana- sions Study but before the M.o.U. was finalized--to assist in dian National Highway System. It was estimated the actual net the formulation of the M.o.U. (62). This study included three benefit would be about double if operations on other high- candidate regulatory scenarios: Scenario A considered an ways were also considered. The net transportation cost bene- 18.7-m (61-ft) semitrailer, doubles with a 19.0-m (62-ft 4-in.) fit for the 15 years from 1988 through 2002 was 328 times the box length, and 7-axle B-trains. Scenario B considered a $5.7 million cost of the research project. 16.8-m (55-ft) semitrailer, doubles with a 19.0-m (62-ft 4-in.) The second study was made more difficult by the presence box length, and 8-axle B-trains. Scenario C considered an of significant confounding factors. The M.o.U. was imple- 18.7-m (61-ft) semitrailer, doubles with a 20.8-m (68-ft 3-in.) mented essentially concurrently with three other events: box length, and 8-axle B-trains. All scenarios included a tridem semitrailer and used axle and gross weights rather similar to · Deregulation of trucking in Canada in 1987, those that ultimately appeared in the M.o.U. · Periods of recession from 1987 through to 1995, and Scenarios A and C each resulted in estimated annual net · The free trade agreement between Canada and the United benefits of about $220 million in 1985 Canadian dollars, States in 1988, which was supplanted by the NAFTA in 1994.