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12 CHAPTER 3 Data for Modeling Aircraft Deviations Airfield Lateral Deviation Studies Aircraft handling characteristics Mechanical failures During the course of study, an attempt was made to obtain data on extreme lateral aircraft deviations for runways, taxi- In the 1970s, the FAA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ways, and taxilanes. Also, information was gathered from (USACE) carried out substantial studies on lateral distribu- previous studies and lateral deviation data and models to tion of aircraft traffic on runways and taxiways (Brown and determine the best alternatives to use in the approach and the Thompson, 1973; HoSang, 1975). More recently, Cohen-Nir methodology to evaluate airfield separations. Appendix C and Marchi (2003), the FAA, and Boeing (Scholz, 2003a and provides a summary of this literature review. 2003b) performed statistical analyses of taxiway deviations for Ensuing sections of this report provide summaries of data large aircraft at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) collected in this research and describe previous studies evalu- and Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport (ANC). ating the magnitude of lateral aircraft deviations during airfield operations as well as the attempts to model the probability distributions of these lateral deviations. Veer-Off Accidents and Incidents A major consideration is random lateral deviations of air- craft during runway, taxiway, and taxilane operations. The Both the FAA and ICAO address the probability of aircraft probability distribution of such deviations relative to the veer-offs in their rationale for runway/taxiway separations. centerline/guideline of runways and taxiways is crucial to ICAO (2004) emphasizes that runway separation issues are assessing the adequacy of existing separation/clearance dis- supported by local airport experience in terms of identifying tances for safe and regular operation of aircraft, both on causes and accident factors specific to the local environment. straight portions and on taxiway curves. The following fac- No less important is the enormous variety and complexity of tors may impact those deviations (Eddowes, Hancox, and accident factors for collision risk. MacInnes, 2001): One of the subtasks of this project was to carry out a func- tional hazard analysis (FHA) for aircraft veer-offs based on Quality of aircraft nose wheel guidelines (marking and information gathered in the literature review. The objective lighting) of this subtask was to identify relevant factors associated with Quality of signs such events to support the data collection effort for accidents Visibility conditions and incidents. The research team collected information that Level of light (day or night) could be used in the modeling process, particularly data on Surface condition (dry, wet, contaminated by snow/ice, causal factors and aircraft location. Identifying the most rel- rubber, etc.) evant factors causing or contributing to such events also was Approach speed and touchdown location part of the modeling process. Taxi speed An FHA is a formal and systematic process for the identifi- Pilot's attention cation of hazards associated with an activity that is typically Pilot's technique during landing employed to support risk assessment and management. An Stability of approach FHA is often conducted in the form of a brainstorming work- Pilot's technique on negotiation turns shop involving a multi-disciplinary team that could include Wind effects (cross-wind) pilots, air-traffic controllers, airside operations personnel, and