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31 CHAPTER 6 Conclusions and Recommendations The aviation industry is relatively young compared to other in the development or in the management of those standards. industries. Over the past 100 years, rapid technological The information presented in Chapter 2 herein can be very changes have had a substantial impact on airfield configu- helpful to the industry and provides documentation that may ration and design standards. Airfield standards have been be used for reference in future studies. modified to improve safety and to accommodate new tech- nology to improve airport capacity and maintain acceptable safety levels. When the standards are changed to require Development of Veer-off Accidents larger areas and dimensions, existing airports increasingly and Incidents Database find themselves constrained by land development and other A comprehensive worldwide database of aircraft veer-off ac- natural features. cidents and incidents was developed that contains information Another common situation occurring with airports is the gathered from existing accident and incident databases and in- need to have larger aircraft operating at the airport to increase formation obtained from other sources (e.g., weather data). capacity. In this case, the new aircraft may belong to a higher ADG, and the corresponding standards may be different and The database was developed in Microsoft Access, which pro- require larger airfield separations. vides editing and querying capabilities. The database contains The methodology developed in this study provides a prac- a synopsis of the event, date, location, runway characteristics, tical and simple tool to help airports quantify and evaluate characteristics of the aircraft involved, causal factors, conse- risk if they cannot comply with the standards and want to quences, and wreckage location/path data. pursue an MOS to submit to the FAA. The methodology is based on lateral deviation studies and models developed in this research as well as in previous studies conducted by the Development of Risk Models FAA, Boeing, and ICAO. A comprehensive survey of acci- for Runway Veer-Offs dents and incidents associated with lateral deviations during Risk models for aircraft veer-off during takeoff and landing landing, takeoff, and taxiing operations was conducted to operations were developed using an approach similar to that identify causal and contributing factors, as well as to charac- presented in ACRP Report 3 for overruns and undershoots terize the lateral deviation during those events. (Hall et al., 2008). A two-part model based on the probability of an incident occurring and an estimate of the probability Major Achievements that the aircraft will travel beyond a given distance from the runway edge is used to assess the risk that an aircraft may de- Airfield Separation Rationale part the existing safety areas. to Develop Standards The frequency model is based on operational and weather It is simple to understand the need for airfield separations factors, including a criticality factor that related aircraft per- to avoid aircraft collisions. However, the rationale used by the formance under given conditions with the available distance FAA and ICAO to establish existing standards is not readily for operation. The frequency model uses accident, incident, available in the literature. This study gathered the information and normal operations data to quantify accident risk factors available from FAA and ICAO personnel who were involved and provide an assessment of flight risk exposure.