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Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards (2011)

Chapter: Chapter 6 - Conclusions and Recommendations

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Page 40
Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Conclusions and Recommendations." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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Page 40
Page 39
Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Conclusions and Recommendations." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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Page 39

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How to Use This Methodology This methodology is intended to serve as a screening tool for analysis associated with requests for modification of stan- dards (MOS) related to airfield separations. In no case should this methodology be used to justify changes to current FAA design standards for airfields. Conclusions drawn based on this methodology shall be subject to further analysis and approval by the FAA before the non-standard separation is adopted. Additional mitigating procedures and risk control measures may be required to achieve an acceptable level of safety for operations in the airfield. This appendix provides a step-by-step methodology to eval- uate the risk of aircraft collision associated with airfield sepa- rations in parallel segments. The methodology uses informa- tion on existing or planned conditions and provides estimates of risk. The level of risk should be compared to acceptable levels of risk recommended by the FAA. Different procedures are used depending on the type of analysis desired, as explained in ensuing sections. The method- ology is divided into five basic sections, and each section pres- ents the procedure to assess the risk for a specific scenario. The outcome of the analysis is the risk of collision between two aircraft or between an aircraft and an object, depending on the type of analysis required. To determine the appropriate sec- tion containing the methodology and step-by-step procedure for the desired type of analysis, the two types of structures must be selected from Table A-1. For example, to analyze the separation between a taxiway and an object, the user should use the procedure described in Section 2 and the risk plots presented in Figures AA-8 to AA-14 presented in the attach- ment to Appendix A. When describing the procedure, some acronyms are used to characterize specific parameters. Definitions of these acronyms can be found within the section in which they appear. When an equation is included in the procedure, a number located in parenthesis to the right of it is used to reference the equation in the text. Many of the risk plots presented in this methodology should be used for specific Aircraft Design Groups (ADGs) as defined in FAA Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5300-13 (FAA, 1989). Table A-2 presents a summary of tail height and wingspan ranges for each ADG. As mentioned earlier, the outcome of the analysis is the risk of collision. Both the FAA and the International Civil Avia- tion Organization (ICAO) have been using a collision risk value of one in 10 million operations (1 × 10−7) as the acceptable level during the approach phase under instrument conditions. This is also the level criterion suggested when applying this method- ology. Limitations This methodology should be used carefully, and the user must be aware of its limitations. This methodology can be applied to estimate the risk of collision between two aircraft or an aircraft and an object only on straight parallel segments of taxiways and taxilanes. Also, because the taxiway deviation models used in this study were developed from lateral devia- tion data collected on taxiways with centerline lights, the conspicuity of the taxiway/taxilane centerline is an added risk mitigation measure that should be used when justifying an MOS request for separations that do not include runways. Although lateral deviation data in taxiing operations used to develop the risk plots were measured only for the B-747 aircraft, it is assumed that smaller aircraft have lateral devia- tion distributions that have smaller ranges. Thus, the model applied can be considered conservative when applied to smaller aircraft. The FAA/ICAO Collision Risk Model (CRM) during missed approach was developed based on data for two- and three- engine jet airplanes. The veer-off models developed under this A-2 Taxiway Taxilane Runway Taxiway Section 1 (Figures AA-1 to AA-7) Section 1 (Figures AA-1 to AA-7) Section 5 (Figures AA-29 to AA-54) Taxilane Section 1 (Figures AA-1 to AA-7) Section 3 (Figures AA-15 to AA-21) Section 5 (Figures AA-29 to AA-54) Object Section 2 (Figures AA-8 to AA-14) Section 4 (Figures AA-22 to AA-28) Section 5 (Figures AA-29 to AA-54) Table A-1. Procedure selection. Table A-2. Airplane Design Groups (FAA, 1989). Group # Tail Height (ft) Wingspan (ft) I < 20 < 49 II 20 to < 30 49 to < 79 III 30 to < 45 79 to < 118 IV 45 to < 60 118 to < 171 V 60 to < 66 171 to < 214 VI 66 to < 80 214 to < 262

A-1 CONTENTS How to Use This Methodology, A-2 Limitations, A-2 Risk Criteria, A-3 Section 1 Taxiway to Taxiway or Taxiway to Taxilane, A-5 Section 2 Taxiway to Object, A-5 Section 3 Taxilane to Taxilane, A-7 Section 4 Taxilane to Object, A-8 Section 5 Runway to Taxiway, Taxilane, or Object, A-8 Attachment—Risk Plots, A-13 A P P E N D I X A Risk Assessment Methodology

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TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 51: Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards is intended to be used to support requests for modification of standards in those circumstances where the design criteria for separations between taxiways/taxilanes and other taxiways/taxilanes and fixed or movable objects as well as separations between taxiways and runways cannot be met.

The following appendices, included in the pdf and print version of the report, will be helpful in understanding the methodology.

  • Appendix A: Risk Assessment Methodology presents a methodology for five different types of circumstances: taxiway/taxilane to taxiway, taxiway to object, taxilane to taxilane, taxilane to an object, and runway to taxiway/taxilane or object;
  • Appendix F: Aircraft Database Summary presents a summary of aircraft characteristics by model; and
  • Appendix H: Analysis of MOS Cases summarizes information collected in the modification of standards survey and presents results of application of the methodology described in Appendix A to each modification of standards case.

Other report appendices, which are available online only, provide detail and information on the development of the methodology.

In addition, the project developed a

PowerPoint presentation

that may be useful for introducing and explaining the methodology to stakeholders.

In July 2021, an errata was posted for this publication: In Table 7 on page 25, the LDVO coefficient was changed from -3.088 to -13.088. The online version of the report has been corrected.

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