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ACRP AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM REPORT 51 Sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards
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ACRP OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE* TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2011 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* CHAIR OFFICERS James Wilding CHAIR: Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (re- VICE CHAIR: Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson tired) EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board VICE CHAIR MEMBERS Jeff Hamiel MinneapolisSt. Paul J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY Metropolitan Airports Commission Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA MEMBERS William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles James Crites Eugene A. Conti, Jr., Secretary of Transportation, North Carolina DOT, Raleigh DallasFort Worth International Airport James M. Crites, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, TX Richard de Neufville Paula J. Hammond, Secretary, Washington State DOT, Olympia Massachusetts Institute of Technology Kevin C. Dolliole Michael W. Hancock, Secretary, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort Unison Consulting Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley John K. Duval Michael P. Lewis, Director, Rhode Island DOT, Providence Austin Commercial, LP Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City Kitty Freidheim Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington Freidheim Consulting Steve Grossman Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Regional General Manager, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Mandeville, LA Jacksonville Aviation Authority Steven T. Scalzo, Chief Operating Officer, Marine Resources Group, Seattle, WA Tom Jensen Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO National Safe Skies Alliance Beverly A. Scott, General Manager and CEO, Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, Catherine M. Lang Atlanta, GA Federal Aviation Administration Gina Marie Lindsey David Seltzer, Principal, Mercator Advisors LLC, Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles World Airports Lawrence A. Selzer, President and CEO, The Conservation Fund, Arlington, VA Carolyn Motz Kumares C. Sinha, Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Hagerstown Regional Airport Lafayette, IN Richard Tucker Thomas K. Sorel, Commissioner, Minnesota DOT, St. Paul Huntsville International Airport Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Transportation Studies; and Interim Director, Energy Efficiency Center, University of California, Davis Kirk T. Steudle, Director, Michigan DOT, Lansing Paula P. Hochstetler Douglas W. Stotlar, President and CEO, Con-Way, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI Airport Consultants Council Sabrina Johnson C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Richard Marchi EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Airports Council International--North America Laura McKee Peter H. Appel, Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S.DOT Air Transport Association of America J. Randolph Babbitt, Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT Henry Ogrodzinski Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA National Association of State Aviation Officials Anne S. Ferro, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Melissa Sabatine LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S.DOT American Association of Airport Executives Robert E. Skinner, Jr. John T. Gray, Senior Vice President, Policy and Economics, Association of American Railroads, Transportation Research Board Washington, DC John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation SECRETARY Officials, Washington, DC Christopher W. Jenks David T. Matsuda, Deputy Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S.DOT Transportation Research Board Victor M. Mendez, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC Tara O'Toole, Under Secretary for Science and Technology, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC Robert J. Papp (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC Cynthia L. Quarterman, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Peter M. Rogoff, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S.DOT David L. Strickland, Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S.DOT Polly Trottenberg, Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy, U.S.DOT Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC Barry R. Wallerstein, Executive Officer, South Coast Air Quality Management District, Diamond Bar, CA *Membership as of October 2010. *Membership as of June 2011.
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AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 51 Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards Jim W. Hall, Jr. APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Vicksburg, MS Manuel Ayres, Jr. APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Miami, FL Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir Regis Carvalho APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Elkridge, MD Robert David ROBERT E. DAVID & ASSOCIATES Fredericksburg, VA Yih-Ru Huang UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA Norman, OK Subscriber Categories Aviation Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2011 www.TRB.org
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AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 51 Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- Project 04-09 portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter- ISSN 1935-9802 national commerce. They are where the nation's aviation system ISBN 978-0-309-21332-5 connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon- Library of Congress Control Number 2011931183 sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most © 2011 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera- COPYRIGHT INFORMATION tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously to meet demands placed on it. published or copyrighted material used herein. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera- acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro- the material, request permission from CRP. gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte- nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, NOTICE and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera- tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision Governing Board of the National Research Council. 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary partici- pants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to Department of Transportation with representation from airport oper- procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved ating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and Council, and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear herein solely because contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. they are considered essential to the object of the report. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga- nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon- sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden- tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro- fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre- pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and Published reports of the selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper- AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP are available from: project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the Transportation Research Board Business Office intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service 500 Fifth Street, NW providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research Washington, DC 20001 reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- and can be ordered through the Internet at shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board's varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org
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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 51 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Marci A. Greenberger, Senior Program Officer Tiana M. Barnes, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Ellen Chafee, Editor ACRP PROJECT 04-09 PANEL Field of Safety Laurie Cullen, HNTB Corporation, Boston, MA (Chair) Gary Cathey, California DOT, Sacramento, CA Chad A. Gunderson, TKDA, St. Paul, MN Paul Herrera, Los Angeles World Airports, Los Angeles, CA Scott McMahon, Morristown Municipal Airport, Morristown, NJ Jorge E. Panteli, McFarland-Johnson, Inc., Concord, NH John Dermody, FAA Liaison Chris Oswald, Airports Council InternationalNorth America Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 04-09 by Applied Research Associ- ates, Inc. (ARA), Robert E. David & Associates, LCC (RED), Oklahoma University (OU), and Mr. Arun Rao. ARA was the contractor for this study, and RED, OU, and Mr. Rao served as subconsultants. Dr. Jim Hall, P.E., Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Principal Investigator; Dr. Manuel Ayres, Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Project Manager; and Mr. Richard Speir, ARA Mid-Atlantic Division Manager served as Co-Principal Investigator. The other authors of this report are Mr. Hamid Shirazi (ARA), Mr. Robert David (RED), Dr. Yih-Ru Huang (OU), Mr. Regis Carvalho (ARA), Dr. Samuel Cardoso (ARA), and Ms. Edith Arambula (ARA). The work was done under the general supervision of Dr. Manuel Ayres.
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FOREWORD By Marci A. Greenberger Staff Officer Transportation Research Board ACRP Report 51: Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards provides a methodology that airports can use to support their request for modi- fication of standards. It is intended to be used in those circumstances where the design cri- teria for separations between taxiways/taxilanes and (1) other taxiways/taxilanes and (2) fixed or movable objects as well as separations between taxiways and runways cannot be met. This risk-based methodology will be useful to airport staff and their consultants as they assess the risks associated with non-standard separations at existing constrained airports where the standards can't be practicably met. To ensure safe operations, FAA-specified airfield design criteria include standards between runways and taxiways and other movement areas and fixed and moveable objects. As many airports were designed long before current design standards and as airplane design and oper- ational realities have changed, so have the impacts that the separation standards can have on existing airfield operations. To account for these realities, the FAA does accept requests from airports for modification of standards. As risk assessments become more and more a part of any decision-making criteria in many if not all aspects of airport operations and management, it is timely then that this risk- based methodology for assessing and justifying requests to modify separation standards has been developed. Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA) was retained under ACRP Proj- ect 04-09 to develop a method for assessing the risks associated with non-standard separa- tions. The result of their efforts is ACRP Report 51: Risk Assessment Method to Support Mod- ification of Airfield Separation Standards. The methodology was developed in part by analyzing data associated with aircraft veering from runway and taxiway centerlines and determining the probability of incidents occurring. ARA validated their methodology by examining actual modification of standards cases that were approved by the FAA. Three of the report's appendices will be particularly helpful to the user in understand- ing the methodology. Appendix A: Risk Assessment Methodology presents a methodol- ogy for five different types of circumstances: taxiway/taxilane to taxiway, taxiway to object, taxilane to taxilane, taxilane to an object, and runway to taxiway/taxilane or object. Appen- dix F: Aircraft Database Summary presents a summary of aircraft characteristics by model, and Appendix H: Analysis of MOS Cases summarizes information collected in the modifi- cation of standards survey and presents results of application of the methodology described in Appendix A to each modification of standards case. Other report appendices provide detail and information on the development of the methodology and are provided on the TRB website at http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/165180.aspx. Posted at the same URL on the TRB website is a PowerPoint presentation that may be useful for introducing and explaining the methodology to stakeholders.
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CONTENTS 1 Summary 2 Chapter 1 Background 2 Introduction 2 Project Goals 2 Major Challenges Associated with Airfield Separations 3 FAA Modification of Standards 4 Chapter 2 Airfield Separation Rationale 4 FAA Rationale 8 ICAO Rationale 12 Chapter 3 Data for Modeling Aircraft Deviations 12 Airfield Lateral Deviation Studies 12 Veer-Off Accidents and Incidents 13 Aircraft Veer-Off Database Organization 14 Normal Operations Data (NOD) 15 Aircraft Data 16 Chapter 4 Methodology Approach 16 Taxiway and Taxilane Deviation Modeling 21 Runway Deviation Modeling 28 Chapter 5 Validating the Methodology 28 MOS Case Studies 28 MOS Survey 28 Methodology Applied to MOS Cases 31 Chapter 6 Conclusions and Recommendations 31 Major Achievements 32 Limitations 32 Recommendations for Future Work 34 Glossary of Acronyms 36 Definitions 37 References A-1 Appendix A Risk Assessment Methodology B-1 Appendix B Collision Risk Model C-1 Appendix C Key Studies on Aircraft Deviation D-1 Appendix D List of Veer-Off Accidents and Incidents E-1 Appendix E Sample of Normal Operations Data
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F-1 Appendix F Aircraft Database Summary G-1 Appendix G Summary of FAA/Boeing Taxiway Deviation Studies H-1 Appendix H Analysis of MOS Cases Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.