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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14501.
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TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2011 www.TRB.org A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP REPORT 51 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards Jim W. Hall, Jr. APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Vicksburg, MS Manuel Ayres, Jr. APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Miami, FL Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir Regis Carvalho APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Elkridge, MD Robert David ROBERT E. DAVID & ASSOCIATES Fredericksburg, VA Yih-Ru Huang UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA Norman, OK

AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter- national commerce. They are where the nation’s aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon- sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera- tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera- tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro- gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte- nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera- tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary partici- pants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport oper- ating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga- nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon- sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden- tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro- fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre- pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper- ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. ACRP REPORT 51 Project 04-09 ISSN 1935-9802 ISBN 978-0-309-21332-5 Library of Congress Control Number 2011931183 © 2011 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 51 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Marci A. Greenberger, Senior Program Officer Tiana M. Barnes, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Ellen Chafee, Editor ACRP PROJECT 04-09 PANEL Field of Safety Laurie Cullen, HNTB Corporation, Boston, MA (Chair) Gary Cathey, California DOT, Sacramento, CA Chad A. Gunderson, TKDA, St. Paul, MN Paul Herrera, Los Angeles World Airports, Los Angeles, CA Scott McMahon, Morristown Municipal Airport, Morristown, NJ Jorge E. Panteli, McFarland-Johnson, Inc., Concord, NH John Dermody, FAA Liaison Chris Oswald, Airports Council International–North America Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 04-09 by Applied Research Associ- ates, Inc. (ARA), Robert E. David & Associates, LCC (RED), Oklahoma University (OU), and Mr. Arun Rao. ARA was the contractor for this study, and RED, OU, and Mr. Rao served as subconsultants. Dr. Jim Hall, P.E., Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Principal Investigator; Dr. Manuel Ayres, Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Project Manager; and Mr. Richard Speir, ARA Mid-Atlantic Division Manager served as Co-Principal Investigator. The other authors of this report are Mr. Hamid Shirazi (ARA), Mr. Robert David (RED), Dr. Yih-Ru Huang (OU), Mr. Regis Carvalho (ARA), Dr. Samuel Cardoso (ARA), and Ms. Edith Arambula (ARA). The work was done under the general supervision of Dr. Manuel Ayres. C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S

ACRP Report 51: Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards provides a methodology that airports can use to support their request for modi- fication of standards. It is intended to be used in those circumstances where the design cri- teria for separations between taxiways/taxilanes and (1) other taxiways/taxilanes and (2) fixed or movable objects as well as separations between taxiways and runways cannot be met. This risk-based methodology will be useful to airport staff and their consultants as they assess the risks associated with non-standard separations at existing constrained airports where the standards can’t be practicably met. To ensure safe operations, FAA-specified airfield design criteria include standards between runways and taxiways and other movement areas and fixed and moveable objects. As many airports were designed long before current design standards and as airplane design and oper- ational realities have changed, so have the impacts that the separation standards can have on existing airfield operations. To account for these realities, the FAA does accept requests from airports for modification of standards. As risk assessments become more and more a part of any decision-making criteria in many if not all aspects of airport operations and management, it is timely then that this risk- based methodology for assessing and justifying requests to modify separation standards has been developed. Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA) was retained under ACRP Proj- ect 04-09 to develop a method for assessing the risks associated with non-standard separa- tions. The result of their efforts is ACRP Report 51: Risk Assessment Method to Support Mod- ification of Airfield Separation Standards. The methodology was developed in part by analyzing data associated with aircraft veering from runway and taxiway centerlines and determining the probability of incidents occurring. ARA validated their methodology by examining actual modification of standards cases that were approved by the FAA. Three of the report’s appendices will be particularly helpful to the user in understand- ing the methodology. Appendix A: Risk Assessment Methodology presents a methodol- ogy for five different types of circumstances: taxiway/taxilane to taxiway, taxiway to object, taxilane to taxilane, taxilane to an object, and runway to taxiway/taxilane or object. Appen- dix F: Aircraft Database Summary presents a summary of aircraft characteristics by model, and Appendix H: Analysis of MOS Cases summarizes information collected in the modifi- cation of standards survey and presents results of application of the methodology described in Appendix A to each modification of standards case. Other report appendices provide detail and information on the development of the methodology and are provided on the TRB website at http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/165180.aspx. Posted at the same URL on the TRB website is a PowerPoint presentation that may be useful for introducing and explaining the methodology to stakeholders. F O R E W O R D By Marci A. Greenberger Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

C O N T E N T S 1 Summary 2 Chapter 1 Background 2 Introduction 2 Project Goals 2 Major Challenges Associated with Airfield Separations 3 FAA Modification of Standards 4 Chapter 2 Airfield Separation Rationale 4 FAA Rationale 8 ICAO Rationale 12 Chapter 3 Data for Modeling Aircraft Deviations 12 Airfield Lateral Deviation Studies 12 Veer-Off Accidents and Incidents 13 Aircraft Veer-Off Database Organization 14 Normal Operations Data (NOD) 15 Aircraft Data 16 Chapter 4 Methodology Approach 16 Taxiway and Taxilane Deviation Modeling 21 Runway Deviation Modeling 28 Chapter 5 Validating the Methodology 28 MOS Case Studies 28 MOS Survey 28 Methodology Applied to MOS Cases 31 Chapter 6 Conclusions and Recommendations 31 Major Achievements 32 Limitations 32 Recommendations for Future Work 34 Glossary of Acronyms 36 Definitions 37 References A-1 Appendix A Risk Assessment Methodology B-1 Appendix B Collision Risk Model C-1 Appendix C Key Studies on Aircraft Deviation D-1 Appendix D List of Veer-Off Accidents and Incidents E-1 Appendix E Sample of Normal Operations Data

F-1 Appendix F Aircraft Database Summary G-1 Appendix G Summary of FAA/Boeing Taxiway Deviation Studies H-1 Appendix H Analysis of MOS Cases Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.

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TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 51: Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards is intended to be used to support requests for modification of standards in those circumstances where the design criteria for separations between taxiways/taxilanes and other taxiways/taxilanes and fixed or movable objects as well as separations between taxiways and runways cannot be met.

The following appendices, included in the pdf and print version of the report, will be helpful in understanding the methodology.

  • Appendix A: Risk Assessment Methodology presents a methodology for five different types of circumstances: taxiway/taxilane to taxiway, taxiway to object, taxilane to taxilane, taxilane to an object, and runway to taxiway/taxilane or object;
  • Appendix F: Aircraft Database Summary presents a summary of aircraft characteristics by model; and
  • Appendix H: Analysis of MOS Cases summarizes information collected in the modification of standards survey and presents results of application of the methodology described in Appendix A to each modification of standards case.

Other report appendices, which are available online only, provide detail and information on the development of the methodology.

In addition, the project developed a

PowerPoint presentation

that may be useful for introducing and explaining the methodology to stakeholders.

In July 2021, an errata was posted for this publication: In Table 7 on page 25, the LDVO coefficient was changed from -3.088 to -13.088. The online version of the report has been corrected.

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