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48 Impact of Jet Fuel Price Uncertainty on Airport Planning and Development Exhibit II-12. Selecting airlines and comparison airports in the OAGHistory worksheet. Locid Carrier #1 Carrier #2 Carrier #3 ACY - ATLANTIC CITY-INTL, NEW JERSEY (Small Hub) TOTAL NK - SPIRIT AIRLINES FL - AIRTRAN AIRWAYS ABE - ALLENTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA (Small Hub) TOTAL (blank) (blank) (blank) (blank) (blank) (blank) OAGHistory Worksheet Once the Update Tables button is pushed, the software sends the user to the OAGHistory worksheet. At the top of the worksheet, the user can select: Air service by individual carriers at the subject airport Air service history at comparison airports (including by individual carriers) This information may be helpful in creating a customized forecast and in reviewing the reason- ableness of any forecast relative to history. In this example, select NK (Spirit) and FL (Airtran) from the pull-down boxes for ACY (shown in Exhibit II-12). Select ABE (Allentown, PA) for a comparison airport. When an air- port is first selected, airport totals are shown, but the user may select individual carriers in any or all of the three carrier selection boxes. The graphics (shown in Exhibit II-13) provide an interesting history of air service at the subject airports. A user might test his or her own customized forecast against this history, or use a comparison airport to examine the possible future for the subject airport. In the follow- ing discussion, sample observations that might be drawn from the data are provided for illustrative purposes. These observations do not represent any formal conclusions about the airports shown. Exhibit II-13. Twenty-year air service history graphs in the OAGHistory worksheet. Daily Domestic Flight Departures Average Seat Size (Based on Feb and July Schedules) (Based on Feb and July Schedules) 60 160 Flight departures at Average seats per ABE have fallen off 140 ACY-TOTAL departure at ABE 50 ACY-TOTAL dramatically, while 120 ACY-NK has varied between ACY-NK they have been ACY-FL 80 and 45 seats. 40 ACY-FL 100 more stable at ACY ABE-TOTAL Average seats at ABE-TOTAL ACY are on an over the past 8 80 30 years. upward trend. 60 20 40 20 10 0 0 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 # Domestic Destinations Served Daily Domestic Seat Departures (Based on Feb and July Schedules) (Based on Feb and July Schedules) 20 4,000 Seat departures at Number of points 18 served has been 3,500 ACY-TOTAL ABE have fallen ACY-TOTAL dramatically since 16 ACY-NK trending down at 3,000 ACY-NK 14 both airports, with the early 1990's, ACY-FL ACY-FL ACY very dependent 2,500 and accelerated 12 ABE-TOTAL ABE-TOTAL on NK. after 9/11. ACY is 10 2,000 on an upward trend, 8 1,500 again due to NK. 6 1,000 4 500 2 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20