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BCA.Net: SPASM: cfm IMPACTS: STEAM: APPENDIX B: ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET ASSUMPTIONS Data Units Source/Notes Fixed Assumptions General Analysis period 20 years MnDOT BCA: typical planning timeframe: 20-30 Number of days in the year 300 days years Year operations begin 2011 Conservative estimate; could range from Benefits and costs reported in 2010 constant 2009 $ 250-365 Infrastructure No. of intersections per mile 6 HCS Analysis Assumptions Number of bus lanes 1 Lane width 11 feet No. of stations 5 per mile Variable Assumptions General Discount rate 7% FHWA Economic Analysis Primer; Federal OMB Average wage rate of transit riders $26.29 constant 2009 $ per hour; guidance converted from original Can be disaggregated for impacts by income figure of $21.1 in 2000$ group (assumes $40,000 per year) from source Average wage rate of auto drivers $26.29 constant 2009 $ per hour Pre-Project Mode Shares Autos 85% Bus 15% Average Vehicle Occupancy Auto 1.2 Transit (60 ft articulated) 80 Source: TCRP 118 Annual Ridership Growth Rate Auto 2% Transit 2% Elasticities Transit ridership w.r.t travel time -0.6 Source: TCRP 118 (p. 3-19) gives range of -0.5 to -0.7 for work trips and - 0.3 to -0.5 for general trips; Levinson et al., TRB (2008) paper says -0.4, Moving Cooler Tech Appendix says -0.4 and can use -0.5 to add in the effect of increased reliability Transit ridership w.r.t bus headway (frequency) -0.4 Source: Levinson et al., from TCRP Project A23A Report. Or -0.5 from "Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes", TCRP Report 95. Infrastructure and Travel conditions Length of arterial/corridor 5.0 miles Average headway of current bus service, during peak hours 10.0 minutes Current bus volume, bi-directional, peak hour 12 buses Maximum current transit riders in peak hour peak direction 480 riders Average headway of BRT (frequency), during peak hours 6.0 minutes Typical 5-10 mins for peak hours, TCRP Report BRT bus volume, bi-directional, peak hour 20 buses Maximum BRT transit riders in peak hour peak direction 800 riders Total daily passenger throughput, base case (trips) 40,000 Percent of passenger trips in peak hour 10% Assuming 10% peak hour trips Percent of peak volume in peak direction 60% Assuming 60% peak hour volume in peak direction Daily peak hour passenger throughput, base case 4,000 Daily peak hour pax throughput, base case, peak direction 2,400 Auto volume, bi-directional, peak hour 2,833 cars Auto volume, peak direction 1,700 cars Average Base Case AUTO speed 21.8 miles per hour HCS Analysis Speed on GP lanes after BRT 20.3 miles per hour HCS Analysis, based on new AADT calculated Average Base Case Transit Speed 7.0 miles per hour Source: FTA (2009) Average BRT speed 11.0 miles per hour Source: FTA (2009) Change in transit travel time -36% 25

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TRANSPORTATION IMPACT ANALYSIS NO BUILD -- 3 BRT ALTERNATIVE LANES MIXED 2 LANES, MIXED FLOW 1 LANE, BRT FLOW Traffic volume during peak hours, in peak direction Auto 1,700 1,544 Travel Demand (Person throughput) during peak hours, in peak direction Auto drivers and riders 2,040 1,853 ` Transit riders 360 547 Auto users diverted to BRT 187 Increase in transit ridership due to decreased travel time 79 Increase in transit ridership due to increased frequency 58 Travel Data Average auto trip length on corridor (miles) 5 5 Average transit trip length (miles) 5 5 Average auto travel time (minutes) 13.76 14.78 Average transit travel time (minutes) 47.86 30.27 in-vehicle time 42.86 27.27 wait time 5.00 3.00 Average auto delay 1.02 minute per trip Average transit time savings 17.58 minutes per trip Average person delay for auto 1.22 minutes per trip Average transit person time savings 1,407 minutes per trip Daily VMT (trip length * trips) Auto 8,500 7,722 Auto VMT savings 778 Daily VHT (trip time * trips) Auto 390 380 Auto VHT savings 9.5 Daily person miles traveled Auto 10,200 9,267 Change in auto daily person miles 933 Daily person hours traveled Auto 468 456 Change in auto daily person hours 11 26

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COST ASSUMPTIONS AND CALCULATIONS Data Notes/units Source Note: Multiple choices are provided under each category; options assumed in this hypothetical analysis are marked All component costs are in 2004 $ unless otherwise mentioned Infrastructure construction (capital costs below include engineering and design) Scenarios available for at-grade BRT from TCRP Report 118: BRT Practitioner's Guide, 2007, example BRT scenarios Bus lane -- new construction 25,000,000 Cost per lane mile Median arterial busway 4,000,000 Cost per lane mile Lane within existing roadway profile 2,700,000 Cost per lane mile Assumption Bus lane -- striping lane 100,000 Cost per lane mile Infrastructure construction cost 13,500,000 Stations At-grade typical station costs (basic) 21,000 per station TCRP report 118 At-grade typical station costs (enhanced) 30,000 per station Assumption At-grade major station costs 150,000 per station Station costs 750,000 New Vehicles Number of new buses needed 10 Standard 337,500 average per vehicle Assumption Articulated 675,000 average per vehicle TCRP report 118 Vehicle costs 6,750,000 Fare collection On-board 17,500 avg. per vehicle Off-board 62,500 avg. per vehicle Assumption Fare collection costs 175,000 Other systems Traffic Signal Priority 30,000 per instersection Passenger on-board information 4,000 per vehicle Other (ITS, safety, security systems, etc.) 90,000 70,000-120,000 per vehicle, depending on features Other system costs 1,840,000 total TOTAL CAPITAL COSTS 26,138,534 over two years (assume) Converted to $2009 Annual Operation and maintenance costs O&M Costs $10,000 Cost per lane mile Detailed calculation of O&M costs based on stations, vehicles, etc., see TCRP 118, pp. 4-90-91 TOTAL ANNUAL O&M COSTS $56,786 Converted to $2009 -- Assuming minor reconfiguration/widening of most recent year for arterial which CPI annual average is available User Costs (Base Case) Auto drivers Auto operating costs 0.54 $ per vehicle mile AAA, 2009 -- excluding ownership costs (15.42 cents/mile); 54 cents/mile with ownership costs Auto operating costs per passenger mile 0.45 $ per passenger mile at 15,000 miles per year Tolls 0 $ Value of in-vehicle travel time 13.14 $/hour Assumes 50% of wage rate, TCRP 78, p. II-16 Cost of in-vehicle time 0.60 $/passenger mile Transit riders Single trip bus transit fare 1.30 $ Assumes average adult single trip bus fare = $1.30: Fare (per mile) 0.26 $ per passenger mile source APTA statistics (see link) Travel time, in-vehicle 42.86 minutes/passenger Transfer time 0 minutes/passenger Value of walking, waiting, transfer time 26.29 $/hour Assumes 100% of wage rate, TCRP 78, p. II-16 Value of travel time, in-vehicle 13.14 $/hour Assumes 50% of wage rate, TCRP 78, p. II-16 Costs of wait time for transit riders 0.44 $/passenger mile Cost of in-vehicle time 1.88 $/passenger mile User Costs (BRT Case) Auto drivers Auto operating costs 0.54 $ per vehicle mile Auto operating costs per passenger mile 0.45 $ per passenger mile Tolls 0 $ Value of in-vehicle travel time 13.14 $/hour Cost of in-vehicle time 0.65 $/passenger mile Transit riders Single trip bus transit fare 1.30 $ APTA Statistics; adult single trip bus fare Fare (per mile) 0.26 cents per passenger mile Travel time, in-vehicle 27.27 minutes/passenger Transfer time 0 minutes/passenger Value of waiting time 26.29 $/hour Value of travel time, in-vehicle 13.14 $/hour Costs of waiting time for transit riders 0.26 $/passenger mile Cost of in-vehicle time 1.19 $/passenger mile 27

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BENEFIT ASSUMPTIONS AND CALCULATIONS Direct User Benefits or Disbenefits BRT ALTERNATIVE NO BUILD -- 3 LANES MIXED FLOW 2 LANES, MIXED FLOW 1 LANE, BRT Total perceived daily user costs (includes time) per passenger mile: Auto 1.05 1.10 Transit 2.58 1.72 Daily cost savings for transit riders continuing to use transit 309 Daily cost savings for auto drivers continuing to drive -83 Daily cost savings for drivers switching to BRT(see note) -124 Assumed zero if negative, otherwise assume 0 calculated cost savings Peak hour user cost savings $226 $/passenger mile Daily peak period user cost savings $1,358 $/passenger mile Assuming 6 peak hours daily over AM and PM peak Annual Savings in User Travel Costs $2,036,954 peak period Already in $2009; no conversion required Social Benefits Emission damage costs Source: Used CAF DEIS estimates for all pollutants (see page 399 of DEIS_D document, 2009), except CO; reported in $2007 Estimates from CAF EIS, ICF, using EPA Data VOCs (HCs) 1,300 $/ton CO 0 $/ton Impact ignored NOx 5,300 $/ton SOx 31,000 $/ton Particulates 290,000 $/ton CO2 20 $/ton $33/ton in WMATA analysis Average 2005 emission rates for light duty vehicles Source -- EPA, "Emission Facts: Average Annual Emissions and Fuel Consumption for Gasoline-Fueled Passenger Cars and Light Trucks," EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality Document No. EPA420-F-05-022, August 2005 (saved on hard drive) VOCs (HCs) 1.36 grams/mile CO 12.4 grams/mile NOx 0.95 grams/mile 0.17 grams of SO2 per gallon of gasoline -- DEIS p. 394; also 0.17 grams of SO2 per 20.3 miles (average mileage in MPG; see EPA); therefore, average SOx 0.008 grams/mile of SO2 = 0.17/20.3 = 0.008 Particulates 0.01 CO2 369.00 Daily emissions for auto trips diverted to BRT VOCs (HCs) 1,269 grams CO 11,573 grams NOx 887 grams SOx 8 grams Particulates 9 grams CO2 344,393 grams Daily PEAK HOUR emissions damage cost savings for auto trips diverted to BRT VOCs (HCs) $1.65 CO $0.00 NOx $4.70 SOx $0.24 Particulates $2.71 CO2 $6.89 TOTAL $16.19 $/vehicle mile $13.49 $/passenger mile Daily peak emissions cost savings, over 6 peak hours $80.93 $/passenger mile Annual Emissions Damage Cost Savings for Auto Trips Diverted to BRT $125,608 peak hour in $2009 Crash cost savings Source: CAF DEIS pp. 397-401(from FHWA Crash costs per VMT $0.023 $/vehicle mile (2007 $) source) Daily savings in crash costs from auto trips diverted to BRT $18 $/passenger mile Daily peak crash cost savings, over 6 peak hours $107 Annual savings in crash costs from auto trips diverted to BRT $166,583 in $2009 TOTAL ANNUAL PEAK PERIOD BENEFIT $2,329,146 Benefit per existing rider $6,470 28

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Transportation Research Board 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 ISBN 978-0-309-15555-7 90000 Subscriber Categories: Public Transportation Planning and Forecasting Economics 9 780309 155557 These digests are issued in order to increase awareness of research results emanating from projects in the Cooperative Research Programs (CRP). Persons wanting to pursue the project subject matter in greater depth should contact the CRP Staff, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP.