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53
Case Studies gram managers believe that MPOs, the state DOTs, and
private- sector users have regularly consulted the data. They
The complexities of data integration and of addressing believe that private-sector firms such as GE, UPS, FedEx,
data deficiencies were clearly evident in the development of and Wal-Mart have used it to help determine the location
two representative freight information systems, the FAF and of warehouses and assembly sites and to choose shipping
the TSI. Although neither are performance measurement routes.
systems, both provide comprehensive data regarding freight Although the FAF data provide unprecedented new insight
volumes, origins, destinations, and other trend information. into the national freight network, FAF is not now scalable
The level of effort that was necessary for these two systems down to the local level. FAF is focused on the national and
provides an order-of-magnitude example of the complexities regional aspects of freight movement. It does not capture
facing the development of a comprehensive freight perfor- movement less than 50 miles and was not designed to pro-
mance measurement system. vide a local perspective. The managers of the FAF program
said that augmenting the FAF data for local granularity would
be very data intensive and probably expensive. The FAF pro-
Freight Analysis Framework Case Study
gram managers say they do not anticipate scaling the data
The Freight Analysis Framework integrates data from a down to the local level.
variety of sources to estimate commodity flows and related The FAF program incorporates data from the following
freight transportation activity among states, regions, and data systems:
major international gateways. The first version of FAF pro-
vides estimates for 1998 and forecasts for 2010 and 2020. Commodity Flow Survey: This is a domestic shipper survey
The second version provides estimates for 2002 and the most conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. It has origin/destina-
recent year plus forecasts through 2035. tion data for manufacturing, mining, and agriculture sectors.
The FAF Commodity Origin-Destination Database esti- It is conducted every five years. The last one was conducted in
mates tonnage and value of goods shipped by type of com- 2007. The survey seeks sample data from shippers randomly
modity and mode of transportation among and within 114 identified from federal tax files.
areas, as well as to and from seven international trading regions Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS): This survey was
throughout the 114 areas plus 17 additional international gate- conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. Last done in 2002, it
ways. The 2002 estimate is based primarily on the Commodity collected information about trucks to be used to compute
Flow Survey and other components of the Economic Census. and calibrate tonnage for various products. The data will be
Forecasts are included for 2010 to 2035 in five-year increments. analyzed and incorporated into FAF.
Officials of FAF report that at present the effort requires Highway Performance Management System: These data
one full-time U.S. DOT staff person and two full-time con- are obtained from state DOTs that collect data from samples
sultants. Both Battelle Memorial Institute and the Oak Ridge of roadways statistically selected annually. The data address
National Lab support the ongoing FAF efforts. information about the performance, use, and operating char-
The initial FAF setup cost was about $1 million and was acteristics of U.S. highways.
spent on acquiring private data. Because there were privacy Vehicle Travel Information System (VTRIS): This annual
issues with the data, the detailed analysis and input/output update provides data about the number of trucks weighed,
data could not be shared with users. The next phase cost weight by vehicle type, and the classification of vehicles mov-
$600,000 and was a two-year effort focused on construct- ing on the U.S. highway system. This information is used for
ing models. This allowed the agency to share the commodity calibration of tonnage of freight moved.
data with users. The system captures data from the Bureau Transborder Surface Freight Data: This information gives
of Transportation Statistics (BTS), the Federal Aviation North American trade data by commodity and mode. The
Administration, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the data include imports and exports to and from Canada and
Energy Information Association, as well as trans-border U.S. Mexico. This is updated monthly and annually.
Customs Service data, census data, and foreign trade data.
Waterborne Domestic and Foreign Commerce: This is
Private-sector data come from ATA and AAR. FAF captures domestic information updated annually and foreign trade
only "for hire" shipping and does not capture shippers who information updated monthly from USACE.
use internal fleets, such as Wal-Mart and others who trans- Oil Pipeline: Oil movement data by multistate region are
port their own goods. obtained from the Energy Information Administration.
There are no precise data available about who uses the Air Traffic Statistics: Air traffic, tonnage, and revenue ton-
FAF data and how frequently. From experience, the pro- mile data are obtained from carriers quarterly from the FAA.
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54
The managers of the FAF program say their experience (VIUS). FAF1 used private data that could not be shared with
holds significant lessons for development of a freight per- users looking for input and output data. This lack of publicly
formance measurement process. They acknowledge current available data led to FAF2.
uncertainties about roles and responsibilities and a lack of The measures were derived from FAF1 modeling that could
clarity about the role of federal, state, and local agencies in be accomplished by using data that could be made public.
providing data. In several states the relationship between The FAF data can play a significant role in monitoring and
the state and the local agencies is contentious. The authority evaluating the nation's freight system. FAF provides informa-
and responsibility are tied to the availability of funds and the tion about the volume and value of freight flow in the United
agency controlling the funds. A lack of clarity on roles, cou- States, and it provides information about the network over
pled with shortage of funds and lack of publicly available data which the freight moves, as shown in Figures 6.1 and 6.2. The
Waterborne
at various points of the network, makes Domestic
it and
difficult Foreign
to have Commerce
Waterborne Domestic and Foreign Commerce :
: This
snapshotThis is
ofdomestic
is information
information
domestic updated
it provides
information annually
can
updated and
be compared
annually and across
foreign
an integrated approach to national trade
freight information
performance updated
mea-monthly from
years USACE.
and
foreign trade information updated monthly from USACE. across the network to provide information about
sures, they indicated. Fund shortages
Oil have led to the cancel- the performance of freight movement, quantities moved, and
Oil Pipeline
Pipeline:: Oil
Oil movement
movement data
data by
by multistate
multistate region
region are
are obtained
obtained from
from the
the Energy
Energy Information
Information
lation of funding for the Vehicle Inventory and Use Program
Administration.
Administration.
revenue generated. It also provides information about speed,
Air
Air Traffic
Traffic Statistics
Statistics:: Air
Air traffic,
traffic, tonnage,
tonnage, and
and revenue
revenue ton-mile
ton-mile data
data are
are obtained
obtained from
from carriers
carriers quarterly
quarterly
from
from the
the FAA.
FAA.
The
The managers
managers of of the
the FAF
FAF
program
program say their experience
say their experience
holds
holds significant
significant lessons
lessons for
for
development
development of a freight
of a freight
performance
performance measurement
measurement
process.
process. They
They acknowledge
acknowledge
current
current uncertainties
uncertainties about
about
roles
roles and
and responsibilities
responsibilities andand aa
lack
lack of clarity about the role of
of clarity about the role of
federal,
federal, state,
state, and
and local
local
agencies
agencies inin providing
providing data.
data. In
In
several
several states
states the
the relationship
relationship
between
between the
the state
state and
and the
the local
local
agencies
agencies isis contentious.
contentious. TheThe
authority
authority and
and responsibility
responsibility
Figure 6.1. FAF can be used to understand some aspects of freight
Figure 6.1. FAF can be used to understand some aspects of freight
are
are tied
tied to
to the
the availability
availability ofof
Figure 6.1. Example of FAFanddata useful of for assessing funds
movement
movement such
such asas relative
relative volumes
volumes and destinations
destinations of freight
freight flows
flows from
from funds and
and thethe agency
agency
freight
locations,movement.
locations, in
in this
this case
case Missouri.
Missouri. controlling
controlling thethe funds.
funds. AA lack
lack
of
of clarity
clarity onon roles,
roles, coupled
coupled
with
with shortage
shortage of of funds
funds and
and
lack
lack of
of publicly
publicly available
available data
data
at
at various
various points
points of
of the
the
network,
network, makes
makes it it difficult
difficult to
to
have
have an integrated approach to
an integrated approach to
national
national freight
freight performance
performance
measures,
measures, theythey indicated.
indicated. Fund
Fund
shortages
shortages have led to
have led to the
the
cancellation
cancellation of of funding
funding for
for the
the
Vehicle Inventory and
Vehicle Inventory and Use Use
Program
Program (VIUS).
(VIUS). FAF1
FAF1 used
used
private
private data that could not
data that could not be
be
shared
shared with
with users
users looking
looking for
for
input
input and
and output
output data.
data. This
This
lack
lack of publicly available data
of publicly available data
led
led to
to FAF2.
FAF2.
Figure
Figure 6.2.
6.2. FAF
FAF illustrates
illustrates California's
California's import
import volumes.
volumes.
The measures were derived
The measures were derived
Figure 6.2. FAF illustration of California's import volumes.
7
7
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55
reliability, and congestion of movement of freight through the process was streamlined and staff resources were reduced
the nation. It does not provide geographic or temporal gran- to five federal employees and two contractors.
ularity. In other words, it is annualized data available at the The products delivered by TSI are:
state and national level, not the local level.
· Freight Index
· Passenger Index
Transportation Services Index
· Combined (Total) Index
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) was created by
the USDOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), and it The process of refining the data and integrating it to pro-
measures the movement of freight and passengers nationally. vide the three different indexes involves many detailed steps.
The index, which is seasonally adjusted, combines available Those include:
data on freight traffic, as well as passenger travel, that have
been weighted to yield a monthly measure of transportation Data Gathering
services output (Figure 6.3). The BTS staff gather monthly data for each mode of trans-
The TSI is a monthly measure of the volume of services portation from a range of government and private sources
performed by the for-hire transportation sector. The index (Table 6.1).
covers the activities of for-hire freight carriers, for-hire pas-
senger carriers, and a combination of the two. The TSI has Forecasting
been active since 2002 but is still under development and is Some data series were not complete through December
therefore experimental. It is being examined for refinements 2003, the ending date through which the original TSI was
in data sources, methodologies, and interpretations. published. Therefore, staff needed to forecast the one or
The TSI provides insight into how the output of trans- two missing months, using a statistical technique known as
portation services has increased or decreased from month an autoregressed moving average. As production of the TSI
to month. The index can be examined together with other continues, the need to forecast missing data will be reduced.
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the However, it is not uncommon in indexes of this type for
current and future course of the economy. The movement of monthly data to be delayed because of reporting or other
the index over time can be compared with other economic problems and for preliminary data to be substituted.
measures to understand the relationship of transportation to
long-term economic changes. Deseasonalizing
The managers of the TSI note that it is the broadest mea- Because the principal purpose of the index is to reflect
sure of U.S. domestic transportation output. The project monthly shifts in transportation services output and to
started with a grant from BTS in 2002 and was brought in- analyze short-term trends, it is essential that it be adjusted
house that same year. The first official release of TSI occurred for the normal seasonal changes that affect the transporta-
in March 2004. Initially the project had 22 staff and several tion sector. Transportation is highly seasonal, and without
consultants working on the project. Over the course of time adjustment the index would not give an accurate picture
T ra n s p o rta tio n S e rv ic e s In d e x
F reight Index P as s enger Index
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
S e -0 0
S e -0 5
S e -9 0
S e -9 5
No 0 5
No 0 0
No 9 0
No 9 5
20 07
M 02
M l -9 2
M l -9 7
J a 04
J a 94
J a - 99
J 6
Ju 1
Ju 6
Ju 1
M -0 3
M -9 3
M -9 8
0
9
9
0
P
a y u l-
-
n-
n-
n-
n-
-
-
p-
p-
p-
p-
v
v
v
v
l
08
ar
ar
ar
ay
ay
ay
Ja
M
Figure 6.3. TSI trends.
Figure 6.3. TSI trends.
Data Gathering
The BTS staff gather monthly data for each mode of transportation from a range of government and
private sources (Table 6.1).
OCR for page 56
Value added is used for consistency with other indicators that are used in relation to GDP, for example,
56 industrial production. By using value added, rather than gross revenues, for each sector, they seek to
avoid double counting inputs (i.e., diesel fuel) to the transportation sector.
Table
Table6.1.TSI source
6.1. TSI source data.
data.
MEASURE MODE SOURCE
Freight TSI Trucking American Trucking Association
Air BTS and Carrier Websites
Rail Association of American
Railroads
Water US Army Corps of Engineers
Pipeline Energy Information Administration
Passenger TSI Air Bureau of Transportation
Statistics and carrier websites
Rail Federal Railroad Administration
Transit American Public Transportation
Association
Source:
Source: US Department
U.S. Department of Transportation,
of Transportation, Research
Research and Innovative and Innovative
Technology Technology
Administration, Bureau of
Administration,
Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Statistics.
Because value-added data is available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on an annual basis only,
weights
of underlying changes in are determined annually
transportation andBTS
output. applied
hasthroughout the year.
duction. Valued
By using added
value reflects
added, the volume
rather than of
gross revenues, for
physical transportation as well as the value of that volume. Because they have already measured monthly
therefore deseasonalized the data using standard statistical each sector, they seek to avoid double counting inputs (i.e.,
changes in that volume, it is necessary to ensure that changes in volume are not double-counted in the
methodologies. diesel fuel) to the transportation sector.
process of adjusting the weights for the index. This is accomplished through a mathematical process
Because value-added data is available from the Bureau of
called chaining, which follows standard methodologies established by the U.S. Census Bureau for similar
Indexing indexes. Economic Analysis on an annual basis only, weights are deter-
While physical measures are gathered for each mode, ulti- mined annually and applied throughout the year. Valued
The "For-Hire Only" freight data are
mately for combination and analysis, the data from the dif- collected for all five modes: trucking, air, rail, water, and pipeline.
added reflects the volume of physical transportation as well as
Passenger data include air, rail, and transit.
ferent modes must be converted into an index. BTS uses 1996 the value of that volume. Because they have already measured
as the base year andAs with the
indexes byFAF data, the
dividing theproducers of the index do not
current monthly have statistics
monthly changes on
inwho
that uses the data
volume, ornecessary
it is for what to ensure that
value by the averagepurposes.
value forAnecdotally, they know
the 12 months the TSI is used bychanges
of 1996. Wall Street
in as a general
volume areindicator of the economy.
not double-counted in Itthe process of
adjusting the weights for the index. This is accomplished
Weighting and Chaining through a mathematical process called chaining, 10
which fol-
The final step in creation of the index is combining the lows standard methodologies established by the U.S. Census
individual mode indexes into the three summary indexes: Bureau for similar indexes.
the freight index, the passenger index, and the overall, or com- The "For-Hire Only" freight data are collected for all five
bined, TSI. The weighting is based on the relative economic modes: trucking, air, rail, water, and pipeline. Passenger data
value added of each mode. Not all ton-miles are equivalent include air, rail, and transit.
in their economic importance, nor are all passenger-miles. As with the FAF data, the producers of the index do not
For example, the average price paid per ton-mile for freight have statistics on who uses the data or for what purposes.
moved by rail is less than the average price paid per ton-mile Anecdotally, they know the TSI is used by Wall Street as a
for freight shipped by truck because of differences in factors general indicator of the economy. It is used to evaluate the
such as haul length, shipment volumes, and resultant econo- performance of the transportation sector by stock analysts.
mies of scale. By using an economic measure for weighting, It is used as a forecaster of the economy. Companies such as
the TSI staff recognizes these differences and makes the index Global Insight use this information as a factor in their analysis
more valuable as a transportation measure that can be used to provide economic projection and forecasting information
together with other economic measures, such as GDP. to clients such as GE and Wal-Mart. It is used by companies
such as AllianceBernstein to provide research and information
Value added is used for consistency with other indicators on investment related to services globally. This information is
that are used in relation to GDP, for example, industrial pro- also published on the White House website.
