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48 to make more rigorous regulations concerning technologies These are also listed in order of technology developer narrative of this type, but there was industry resistance. The stricter number from Section 3.3. standard may be revisited. Figure 3-1 provides a development roadmap for each of the nine most promising emerging technology areas. The columns Overall Assessment. This technology is a noteworthy to the right of the Technology Area correspond to the five tech- approach to strengthening and protecting tanks and ships' nology development levels defined by the research team and hulls. Because this is a very new technology, industry has explained at the beginning of this section. The length of the bar only recently become interested in it, and industry buy-in portrays the relative maturity of the technology area. This is important. The next steps in the development will be cru- involves some interpolation and averaging because a given cial to gain acceptance. Funding has been running low, but technology area is usually represented by more than one tech- there may be an infusion in the next few months. Industry nology, and developing products researched may reach the may become interested as time goes on and more tests and marketplace at different times. Also, as noted in Section 3.2, prototypes are developed. technologies mature at different rates. The black part of the bar is intended to show researchers' perceptions of where the majority of development has progressed to date, while the gray 3.4 Technology Evaluation Results part of the bar shows advance entries approaching or entering Table 3-1 contains summary evaluation results for all 23 the marketplace. most promising emerging technologies researched, listed in The two representative examples of Container Integrity order of the technology developer narratives from Section 3.3. technology are on opposite ends of the development path. Tables 3-2 through 3-4 contain the outlook for technologies That interpretive challenge was addressed by recognizing that maturing during certain time periods. Table 3-2 is the near- research programs are in place for developing solutions in this term timeframe (i.e., within the next 2 years), Table 3-3 is the technology area over the next 25 years and thus portraying 25 year timeframe, and Table 3-3 is the 615 year timeframe. that as the collective timeline.

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49 Table 3-1. Summary evaluation results of all developing technologies. Narrative No./ Tech Market Technology Area Organizational Technology Function Dev User Unit Cost Impediment(s) Comments Availability Type Level Active RFID monitoring Networked RFID, of cargo and fuel during Variable/not Information transmitted to ubiquitous sensors 1 Company 4-5 Short-term None noted transport using battery disclosed remote monitoring centers and cargo monitoring operated sensors Systems featuring Requires a special Primary market is shippers Networked RFID, 2 National locators, tracking Estimated to be a technician to make repairs; requiring high security ubiquitous sensors Laboratory devices and disclosure 3-5 2-5 years few thousand systems must withstand levels (e.g., radioactive and cargo monitoring of information for first dollars harsh conditions associated cargo) during truck responders with trailer use transport Security and remote monitoring systems Products range Products designed from Networked RFID, utilizing RFID, intrusion from under $100 to silicon up to plastics, with ubiquitous sensors 3 Company 4-5 Short-term None specifically noted detection, biometrics, thousands of industry proven wireless and cargo monitoring and wireless sensor dollars network protocol and actuator networks Finding development funding Eventually both the Passive system: can be a constraint in development funds and Infrastructure $0.05-$0.10 per customizing technology for Networked RFID, technology advancement 4 National monitoring using tag and $2,000 per new application, especially if ubiquitous sensors 4 2-5 years will provide a solution for Laboratory passive, unpowered reader; active no forcing function exists; and cargo monitoring using this type of product, sensing technology system: $50-$100 desirable if power can be operating within a wireless per tag available to transmit network information up to 100 meters $500K to $1M would bring Several thousand readiness to Level 5; also dollars for fixed Monitor and track items need large-scale industrial system of one Networked RFID, in transportation and production of tags, readers Primary market is 5 National RFID reader and ubiquitous sensors storage, using satellite 4 Short-term and other system shipments of sensitive Laboratory communication and cargo monitoring and secure Internet to components, training of nuclear materials transponder; cost relay information personnel, and of $100-$200 per establishment of package tag infrastructure Open platform for Chemical and radiation Variable integration of third party Pressure gauges, detection; over 140 acquisition cost; sensors; target markets chemical detection 6 Company 4-5 Short-term Sensors have a finite life products with different average payback include industrial safety, sensors attributes of 3 months civil defense, and petrochemicals Can communicate via Pressure gauges, The technology will have to $80,000 wireless; primary target chemical detection 7 Company Indoor air monitoring 2 6-10 years be designed to be interactive acquisition cost market is buildings and sensors with communication devices homeland security Interactive with Chemical, biological, Pressure gauges, Unit cost of $300 communication and and radiological threat Need $10M in additional chemical detection 8 Company 2 6-10 years to wire and $100 to display devices; primary detection using funding sensors operate use is on shipping nanowire technology containers Product use will be limited to building infrastructure Unit cost of $300 Pressure gauges, Explosives detection unless the technology can to obtain and Need $3M in additional chemical detection 9 Company using color metric 2 6-10 years be integrated with other under $100 to funding sensors barcodes products in order to serve operate transport vehicles and sensitive cargo Chemical and Unit cost of $300 Pressure gauges, Primary target market is explosives detection to obtain and Need $3M in additional chemical detection 10 Company 4 Short-term buildings with HVAC using gas under $100 to funding sensors systems chromatograph operate 6-10 years for $25-$400 per optical scanner sensor; $400-$2M Need $900K in sensor Has promise for not only Fiber-optic/photonic Sensors using fiber- and in general, per optical development funds; need vehicle and cargo sensors & optical 11 Company 1-2 optics 2-5 years for scanner, $4-6M in scanner monitoring but also scanners some fiber- depending on the development funds infrastructure monitoring optic sensors production scale (continued on next page)

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50 Table 3-1. (Continued). Narrative No./ Tech Market Technology Area Organizational Technology Function Dev User Unit Cost Impediment(s) Comments Availability Type Level Encryption makes seals Seals: $500 in Secure Sensor Platform Initial cost is high; need highly resistant to intrusion volume > 500 (SSP) with applications volumes to bring cost down. that escapes detection. Advanced locks & 12 National units; translator: such as Remotely 4 2-5 years RFID may have some SSP design represents seals Laboratory $6,000 if tamper- Monitored Sealing interference restrictions in middle ground between resistant, $1,500- Display (RMSA) some areas. passive tags and active $2,000 if not seals. Two-way wireless Cost depends on monitoring and control Includes geofencing and Advanced locks & application; 13 Company of battery-operated 4-5 Short-term No known impediment alerts in the event of seals payback expected sensors attached to tampering in 3-6 months cargo and assets Intelligent video Image capture and Integrates with access tracking & 14 Company intelligent video 4-5 Short-term $100-$1,000 No known impediment control; part of Open IP surveillance analytics Alliance Video content analysis Intelligent video software that processes $800-$1,000 per Need $800K in additional Interacts with multiple tracking & 15 Company surveillance camera 3 2-5 years camera; $10,000 funding; possible privacy security-related surveillance images to support per server protection issues technologies and systems identity tracking Wireless power through Distributor used to bring $150- $200 per radio frequency energy Need to be compliant with technology into transmitter; $20 Wireless power 16 Company harvesting, supporting 4 Short-term regulations and standards applications; training and per receiving sensing, and tracking regarding power levels supportability plans have component devices been implemented Uses advanced material science and software Application-specific uses algorithms to identify, Small per-unit cost may require addition R&D; Primary market has been Wireless power 17 Company profile and adapt 4-5 Short-term when mass shielding may be required to low power consumer wireless power delivery produced prevent interference in electronics to various loads and certain radio bands configurations Enables tracking and Need $2-3M in additional A very promising communication devices Unit cost should be funding; so far only 3-4 volts technology development to be powered without Nanopiezoelectronics 18 University 1-2 2-5 years low, with quick can be produced; system that can produce electrical batteries by capturing payback time design needs to be made power from slight motions energy created by the more robust or vibration environment Requires integration via Plastic thin-film Converts light to DC Dependent on adherence or lamination with Basic product is in 19 Company 4-5 Short-term organic solar cells power application other technologies; must production have electrical connection Wireless power from Product to be licensed to Plastic thin-film organic solar cells to Need at least $10M in 20 Company 4 2-5 years Not identified companies building organic solar cells operate sensors, lights, additional funding devices requiring power and cameras Learning curve associated Builds proof-of-concept with making cells larger and organic solar cell Materials used are Plastic thin-film at volume; additional 21 Company devices and licenses 3-4 2-5 years Not identified generally standard and organic solar cells development capital needed; product to volume non-toxic dependent on business manufacturers partnerships Self healing/sealing Can embed tracking and jacket that is resistant to $100K-$500K, monitoring devices; Need $2.5M$5M for full- Container integrity 22 Company impact, thereby keeping 3 2-5 years depending on the complementary with blast scale testing cargo from releasing function and fire mitigation from container technologies 23 U.S. DOT Sandwich structure-- Need funding; must meet Primarily intended for Container integrity Research load blunting and 1 6-10 years Not identified weight and space protecting railroad tank Organization energy absorption requirements cars

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51 Table 3-2. Evaluation results of technologies available in the short term. Narrative No./ Market Technology Area Organizational Technology Function Tech Dev Level User Unit Cost Impediment(s) Comments Availability Type Networked RFID, Active RFID monitoring of Information ubiquitous cargo and fuel during Variable/not transmitted to 1 Company 4-5 Short-term None noted sensors and transport using battery disclosed remote monitoring cargo monitoring operated sensors centers Products Security and remote designed from Networked RFID, monitoring systems utilizing Products range from silicon up to ubiquitous RFID, intrusion detection, 3 Company 4-5 Short-term under $100 to None specifically noted plastics, with sensors and biometrics, and wireless thousands of dollars industry proven cargo monitoring sensor and actuator wireless network networks protocol $500K to $1M would bring Several thousand readiness to Level 5; also dollars for fixed need large-scale Networked RFID, Monitor and track items in system of one RFID Primary market is industrial production of ubiquitous 5 National transportation and storage, reader and shipments of 4 Short-term tags, readers, and other sensors and Laboratory using satellite and secure communication sensitive nuclear system components; cargo monitoring Internet to relay information transponder; cost of materials training of personnel; and $100-$200 per establishment of package tag infrastructure Open platform for integration of third Chemical and radiation party sensors; Pressure gauges Variable acquisition detection; over 140 target markets & chemical 6 Company 4-5 Short-term cost; average Sensors have a finite life products with different include industrial detection sensors payback of 3 months attributes safety, civil defense, and petrochemicals Primary target Pressure gauges Chemical and explosives Unit cost of $300 to Need $3M in additional market is & chemical 10 Company detection using gas 4 Short-term obtain and under funding buildings with detection sensors chromatograph $100 to operate HVAC systems Two-way wireless Cost depends on Includes monitoring and control of Advanced locks & application; payback geofencing and 13 Company battery operated sensors 4-5 Short-term No known impediment seals expected in 3-6 alerts in the event attached to cargo and months of tampering assets Integrates with Intelligent video Image capture and access control; tracking & 14 Company 4-5 Short-term $100-$1,000 No known impediment intelligent video analytics part of Open IP surveillance Alliance Distributor used to Wireless power through bring technology radio frequency energy $150- $200 per Need to be compliant with into applications; Wireless power 16 Company harvesting, supporting 4 Short-term transmitter; $20 per regulations and standards training and sensing, and tracking receiving component regarding power levels supportability devices plans have been implemented Uses advanced material Application-specific uses science and software may require addition Primary market Small per unit cost algorithms to identify, R&D; shielding may be has been low Wireless power 17 Company 4-5 Short-term when mass profile, and adapt wireless required to prevent power consumer produced power delivery to various interference in certain electronics loads and configurations radio bands Requires integration via Plastic thin-film Dependent on adherence/lamination with Basic product is in 19 Company Converts light to DC power 4-5 Short-term organic solar cells application other technologies; must production have electrical connection

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52 Table 3-3. Evaluation results of technologies available in 25 years. Narrative No./ Tech Dev Technology Area Organizational Technology Function Market Availability User Unit Cost Impediment(s) Comments Level Type Systems featuring Requires a special Primary market is Networked RFID, locators, tracking Estimated to be a technician to make shippers requiring high ubiquitous sensors 2 National devices, and disclosure 3-5 2-5 years few thousand repairs; systems must security levels (e.g., and cargo monitoring Laboratory of information for first dollars withstand harsh conditions radioactive cargo) during responders associated with trailer use truck transport Finding development funding can be a Eventually both constraint in customizing Passive system: development funds and Infrastructure monitoring technology for new Networked RFID, $0.05-$0.10 per tag technology advancement 4 National using passive, application, especially if ubiquitous sensors 4 2-5 years and $2K per reader; will provide a solution for Laboratory unpowered sensing no forcing function exists; and cargo monitoring active system: $50- using this type of technology desirable if power can be $100 per tag product, operating within available to transmit a wireless network information up to 100 meters Encryption makes seals Seals: $500 in Initial cost is high; need highly resistant to Secure Sensor Platform volume > 500 units; volumes to bring cost intrusion that escapes Advanced locks & 12 National (SSP) with applications 4 2-5 years translator: $6,000 if down. RFID may have detection. SSP design seals Laboratory such as RMSA tamper-resistant, some interference represents middle $1,500-$2,000 if not restrictions in some areas ground between passive tags and active seals Video content analysis interacts with multiple Intelligent video software that processes $800-$1,000 per need $800K in additional security-related tracking & 15 Company surveillance camera 3 2-5 years camera; $10,000 funding; possible privacy technologies and surveillance images to support identity per server protection issues systems tracking Enables tracking and A very promising Need $2-3M in additional communication devices technology development Unit cost should be funding; so far only 3-4 to be powered without that can produce Nanopiezoelectronics 18 University 1-2 2-5 years low, with quick volts can be produced; batteries by capturing electrical power from payback time system design needs to energy created by the slight motions or even be made more robust environment vibration Wireless power from Product to be licensed to Plastic thin-film organic solar cells to Need at least $10M in 20 Company 4 2-5 years Not identified companies building organic solar cells operate sensors, lights, additional funding devices requiring power and cameras Learning curve associated Builds proof-of-concept with making cells larger Materials used are Plastic thin-film organic solar cell devices and at volume; additional 21 Company 3-4 2-5 years Not identified generally standard and organic solar cells and licenses product to development capital non-toxic volume manufacturers needed; dependent on business partnerships Self healing/sealing Can embed tracking and jacket that is resistant to $100K-$500K, monitoring devices; Need $2.5M - $5M for full- Container integrity 22 Company impact, thereby keeping 3 2-5 years depending on the complementary with blast scale testing cargo from releasing from function and fire mitigation container technologies

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53 Table 3-4. Evaluation results of technologies available in 610 years. Narrative No./ Tech Market Technology Area Organizational Technology Function Dev User Unit Cost Impediment(s) Comments Availability Type Level The technology will Can communicate via have to be Pressure gauges & wireless; primary $80,000 acquisition designed to be chemical detection 7 Company Indoor air monitoring 2 6-10 years target market is cost interactive with sensors buildings and communication homeland security devices Interactive with Pressure gauges & Unit cost of $300 to communication and Chemical, biological, and radiological Need $10M in chemical detection 8 Company 2 6-10 years wire and $100 to display devices; threat detection using nanowire technology additional funding sensors operate primary use is on shipping containers Product use will be limited to building infrastructure unless Pressure gauges & Unit cost of $300 to the technology can Explosives detection using color metric Need $3M in chemical detection 9 Company 2 6-10 years obtain and under be integrated with barcodes additional funding sensors $100 to operate other products in order to serve transport vehicles and sensitive cargo 6-10 years for Need $900K in $25-$400 per sensor; Has promise for not Fiber- optical sensor $400-$2M per optical only vehicle and optic/photonic scanner and development funds; 11 Company Sensors using fiber-optics 1-2 scanner, depending cargo monitoring but sensors & optical 2-5 years for need $4-6M in on the production also infrastructure scanners some fiber- scanner scale monitoring optic sensors development funds 23 U.S. DOT Need funding; must Primarily intended for Sandwich structure--load blunting and Container integrity Research 1 6-10 years Not identified meet weight and protecting railroad energy absorption Organization space requirements tank cars

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Technology 1. Basic technology 2. Equipment and 3. Prototype 4. Product operational 5. Product available for Development Level principles observed process concept demonstrated in in limited real-world commercial use (to right) formulated laboratory environment environment Networked RFID, ubiquitous sensors and cargo monitoring Pressure gauges & chemical detection sensors Fiber-optic/photonic sensors & optical scanners Advanced locks & seals Intelligent video tracking & surveillance Wireless power Nanopiezoelectronics Plastic thin-film organic solar cells Container integrity Figure 3-1. Development roadmap for the nine most promising emerging technologies.