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Emerging Technologies Applicable to Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety and Security (2011)

Chapter: Chapter 4 - Conclusions and Recommendations

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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 4 - Conclusions and Recommendations." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Emerging Technologies Applicable to Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety and Security. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14526.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 4 - Conclusions and Recommendations." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Emerging Technologies Applicable to Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety and Security. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14526.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 4 - Conclusions and Recommendations." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Emerging Technologies Applicable to Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety and Security. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14526.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 4 - Conclusions and Recommendations." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Emerging Technologies Applicable to Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety and Security. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14526.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 4 - Conclusions and Recommendations." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Emerging Technologies Applicable to Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety and Security. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14526.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 4 - Conclusions and Recommendations." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Emerging Technologies Applicable to Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety and Security. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14526.
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55 4.1 Conclusions 4.1.1 Context Hazmat transportation stakeholders want to know more about which technologies are emerging, how these technolo- gies can affect their interests, what they will be capable of doing, and when they will become available. Addressing those points has been the objective of this project. To put this issue into the proper context, it is important to reflect on a statement noted in Section 2.2, “Currently, imple- mentation of technologies within the supply chain is pre- dominantly based on the expectation of return on investment (ROI) within a supply chain context. In the for-profit sector, if a technology will not increase efficiencies, reduce costs, or provide a competitive advantage, generally it is not voluntar- ily implemented.” As a result, a primary factor influencing technology deployment is the need for a demonstrated busi- ness case for the Hazmat transportation industry to invest more in technologies that enhance safety and security. These opportunities generally seem to arise when a business case can be made for technology deployment that is based on cost sav- ings, yet safety and security benefits accrue as well. An exam- ple of this relationship is recent research that indicates the emerging use of sensors may provide major benefits to trans- portation efficiency (1); use of sensors clearly offers safety and security benefits as well. Safety and security considerations may become a more prominent driver when motivated by rulemaking or voluntary efforts in response to other circumstances. One of the tech- nology developers noted that “There is always an unwilling- ness to adopt new technologies without some forcing function . . . often a regulation or requirement.” 4.1.2 Research Process The research involved examining more than 1,000 leads on developing technologies. It included contacts with sources outside the United States and investigation of technologies that are primarily not associated with transportation. It cap- tured the perspectives of a wide range of Hazmat transpor- tation and technology subject matter experts, including representatives of regulatory and compliance organizations, security agencies, academics, national laboratories, research consulting organizations, carriers, manufacturers, shippers, environmental protection agencies, emergency responders, and technology providers. Once this information was compiled, a multi-step method- ology was implemented that resulted in screening and down- selecting from a large number of potential technologies to a smaller number of candidates to the few most promising. The methodology was based on assessment of functional require- ments and application of a gap analysis. Initial results were pre- sented to the HMCRP Project 04 panel and also received a peer review. A few modifications were made to the candidate list, resulting in selection of the nine most promising emerging technology areas. The team identified and interviewed technol- ogy developers to obtain a more in-depth understanding of each of the areas. The result of this engagement was summarized in a series of narratives and comprehensive tables that captured the charac- teristics, relevance, status, and outlook for maturity of technol- ogy area products in both the near and far terms. A graphic roadmap was prepared, showing the comparative progress of product development in each technology area. Collectively, it is intended for this material to help transportation profession- als and other stakeholders, who are users of technologies, gain a better understanding of the most promising emerging tech- nologies that could enhance the safety and security of Hazmat transportation. This knowledge can help these stakeholders make more informed decisions about technology investments. 4.1.3 Lessons Learned 4.1.3.1 Research Approach The team made certain assumptions to help formulate a systematic methodological approach. This process produced C H A P T E R 4 Conclusions and Recommendations

a logical framework with which to screen and select the most promising emerging technologies. The framework was also somewhat “modular” in that if a certain criterion in the selec- tion process was found to have received more or less empha- sis than it should have in light of more recent findings, the new information could be incorporated. A case in point was where it was discovered that one of the technologies selected had substantially passed into the product stage, while a peer review and other evidence suggested that another group of technolo- gies had more compelling traits than originally recognized. The methodology developed to identify a small number of emerging technology areas proved to be effective in screening a large number of technologies and selecting the most promis- ing from the many that were considered. The process encom- passed factors such as multiple transportation modes; differing needs such as protection, detection, and mitigation; and a tech- nology’s ability to benefit safety or security or both as well as other operational factors. It was not difficult to identify developers of the technology areas selected in this research, but it was challenging to obtain interviews with many of them. While some developers talked freely of their plans and progress, others were more guarded, especially in terms of capital investments made or needed. Many conveyed the sense that the timing of the developing product’s arrival in the marketplace was dependent on invest- ments as well as technology breakthroughs, such as with larger- scale manufacturing. Some of the caveats to the technology developer interview process (outlined in Section 3.2) also represent lessons learned. For example, within a technology area with multiple develop- ing products, the level of readiness and maturity of individual technology products can and does vary. 4.1.3.2 Technology Overlap There is clearly some overlap between capabilities of certain technology areas. Photonic technology underlies plastic thin- film organic solar cells as well as photonic/fiber-optic sensors. Advanced seals and locks may use RFID to communicate a non-standard condition, and RFID systems may communi- cate with each other in sensor networking. Fiber-optics is used as a sensor to detect chemicals in one technology area and as a seal in another. Nanowire technology is used to detect chem- ical, biological, and radiological threats as well as being an underlying technology of nanopiezoelectronics. 4.1.3.3 Far Horizon No developing technologies were identified that appear to be maturing in the 11–15 year horizon. This perhaps indicates the motivation that developmental organizations, especially companies, have to bring technologies to maturity in a timely manner. It could also indicate that in today’s world of rapid technology change, planning too far in the future may simply be too risky. Many modern technologies were not planned 11–15 years in advance and external risks abound, including being overtaken by more agile competitors. 4.1.3.4 Technology Interaction The interaction of the most promising emerging technolo- gies with other technologies is markedly positive. The alterna- tive power generation technology group is the most prominent example, because it involves working with other technologies and may even be the reason those technologies can be used for certain applications. The representative technologies of wire- less power, nanopiezoelectronics and plastic thin-film solar cells will be able to supply power to sensors, communications, and other devices. That supply promises to enable electronic devices for safety and security to exist in places and under con- ditions that would not have been feasible before. Working in conjunction with ongoing miniaturization developments (e.g., MEMS/NEMS), alternative power generation can make possi- ble more remote monitoring, whether on non-powered vehi- cles such as railcars and barges, or with infrastructure such as pipelines. Batteries can be smaller and their replacement much less frequent or even unnecessary. One of the advanced locks and seals technologies is the best illustration of the flexibility of systems to work together. Its secure platform concept provides for integration of sensors such as magnetic, glass break, passive IR, IR breakbeam, bal- ance magnetic switch, fiber-optic receiver, fiber-optic loop, vibration, and microwave, with a communications protocol that can support hardwire and RF. The only potentially negative interaction among the tech- nologies that came to the team’s attention is with RFID. A variety of RFID technologies are available, differing in the fre- quencies at which they operate and the type of tag which is queried. These characteristics, in turn, affect power require- ments, read range, and suitability for various environments. Because RFID systems operate in shared frequency bands, they are susceptible to interference generated by other wireless systems. Most systems operate at one of the following fre- quencies: 125 kHz (LF), 13.56 MHz (HF), 900 MHz (UHF), or 2.4 GHz. Active tags contain a power source (e.g., battery) and permit higher read ranges and lower reader power. Pas- sive tags, on the other hand, draw power from the incident electromagnetic waves of the reader and consequently are lower in cost. RFID systems operating at 900 MHz UHF with passive tags are commonly used (43). Use of RFID devices can be limited in some types of facilities such as nuclear plants. Plastic thin-film organic solar cells need to be adhered or laminated to other technologies, so development efforts are required in most cases to incorporate the product into other 56

technologies. Also, the product must have an electrical con- nection which may require development efforts depending on the application. These are not impediments to reaching the marketplace, but rather an additional step in commercial- izing the product. 4.1.4 Where and How Could the Most Promising Emerging Technologies in the Monitoring and Surveillance Group Be Used? Some sensors such as RFID can be networked; active RFID chips enable networking because they have two-way commu- nications capability. The concept of ubiquitous sensors is that of a networked system in which sensors in proximity can trans- mit information about their environment to one another. Ubiquitous RFID would involve the combination of tags, readers, communications, and processing capability. Mesh networking is a type of local area network (LAN) that allows information to be independently routed to reach a destination. In an example of a system with networked RFID, ubiqui- tous sensors and cargo monitoring, a truck with Hazmat cargo could have the condition of its cargo (perhaps even its bill of lading information) remotely and automatically monitored when it passes by a roadside transponder. An out- of-normal condition detected with the Hazmat cargo would generate an alert. Mesh networking with ubiquitous sensing could allow an abnormal condition with cargo on a certain truck to be detected and reported by other trucks at a rest area. Mesh networking with ubiquitous sensing offers advan- tages in reliability and redundancy but at greater cost. There are also privacy issues; the transportation industry tends to closely hold proprietary information such as customer bases. RFID has limited range. The railroads’ Automatic Equip- ment Identification (AEI) system reads RFID tags on virtually every railcar and locomotive from a few feet away to provide Car Location Messaging (CLM) data. In other applications, RFID tags can use battery power to boost read ranges out to 100 meters and beyond. For long-range communication of information detected by RFID, information is usually reported via the terrestrial or satellite communications associated with GPS/GLS systems on trucks, railcars, or barges. Pressure gauges and chemical detection sensors are increasingly able to detect leaks of specific transported Hazmat such as chlorine as well as out-of-normal temperature and pressure readings that can signify problems for many types of cargo. In the future, these sensors will be able to determine chemical composition of Hazmat, chemical agents, and even biological agents. This category of sensors can be used with any of the transportation modes, whether for tanks, casks, smaller containers, or pipelines. Recently, it was announced that a port city in the northeastern United States plans to install a new chemical detection sensor system to enhance safety in the area by alerting emergency responders to and providing criti- cal information on chemicals detected. This system is intended to be integrated with a Port Area Waterside Video Surveillance System (PAWVSS) that provides live camera feeds from a large, well-known bay leading to the port (44). One concern with this technology area is false positive read- ings, which are often a problem with any new sensing tech- nology. For example, if a sensor on a TIH railcar falsely reports a leak or other dangerous condition, the financial cost of stop- ping the train with all its in-transit cargo to check the prob- lem can be substantial. Depending on the train’s location, it could even prompt an unnecessary evacuation. Advances are moving this technology area toward better performance. Fiber-optic/photonic sensors and optical scanners have a range of capabilities and promise for not only vehicle and cargo monitoring, but also infrastructure, such as identifying the type and concentration of toxic gas in a tunnel or the degree of movement of bridge support structures. Fiber-optic sensors and the more expensive optical scanners can read a variety of conditions. Fiber-optic line is recognized for the quantity and quality of data transmitted, and fiber-optic sensors can also work with wireless transmission. These have particular value in tunnels where neither satellite nor terrestrial communica- tions associated with GPL/GLS may work. This technology area shares the same concern with false positive readings as noted in the pressure gauges and chemical detection sensors technology area. Advanced locks and seals are examples of some of the most flexible integration of different technologies found in the research. A wide range of technologies can work together to provide automated monitoring and alerting for high value cargo, which may be passing through remote sites. Imple- mentation of the most advanced systems in this technology area, used for nuclear material management, is currently expen- sive although less expensive components can sometimes suf- fice. However, the concept has promise for offering some of the most secure access protection using sophisticated encryp- tion techniques with low life cycle cost sealing materials. Intelligent video tracking and surveillance builds on the proliferation of CCTV and other cameras. The development is not so much in the cameras as in the software that can work with legacy cameras to detect objects left on a scene or removed, detect certain behaviors, and track people or vehicles. The technology can be used for any mode in which security and access control are needed. In a more advanced version, cam- eras along highways or Interstates in a HTUA could track a Hazmat vehicle of interest; for example, its image could be handed off from camera to camera as it moves along a belt- way equipped with traffic cameras. The PAWVSS mentioned in the pressure gauges and chemical detection sensors tech- nology area would appear to be a candidate for a potential 57

maritime implementation. Privacy issues are always present when people’s images are captured and biometric techniques are used to do more than verify identity. However, security concerns since 9/11 have brought about the proliferation of video systems, and their uses are being expanded through this type of technology advance. 4.1.5 Where and How Could the Most Promising Emerging Technologies in the Alternative Power Generation Group Be Used? Of the three different approaches to alternative power gen- eration, wireless power is perhaps closest to the marketplace, with products capable of maturing in the next 2 years. Unlike the other two alternative power source technologies, wireless power does not create electricity but rather receives it from another source where it is needed. This can be a consider- able advantage for powering sensors, communications, and other devices applicable to Hazmat transportation. One of its other advantages is the ability to design out power cords and cable runs. The question about how soon it can play a major role appears to be determined by the power requirements, efficiency of transmission, and regulations concerning power outputs. Products are already on the market to wirelessly charge cell phones and laptops; the day may soon be approaching when a traveler may not have to bring power cords, batteries, or chargers on a trip. In terms of Hazmat transportation, dis- tance is a concern for this technology type. That can be over- come by techniques such as the conceptual capability to have a receiving device relay power. In this concept, power could be “daisy chained” from a locomotive along a series of Hazmat railcars to operate GPS/GLS devices with terrestrial or satellite communication, integrated with sensors such as hatch open or chemical leak detectors. Plastic thin-film organic solar cells may be equally close to the marketplace in terms of power levels likely to be useful (some have already reached product status but most are 2–5 years out). Their form-factor is a real positive, as their great flexibility allows them to be used on curved or angled sur- faces, and their relative transparency allows them to be applied to vehicle surfaces or even windows. Conceptually, it might be possible to have a vehicle’s painted surfaces coated with a trans- parent, organic thin-film solar cell to generate additional power. The challenge appears to be mainly the matter of con- tinuing development to make cells larger and at volume. Solar cell manufacturers must work with device manufacturers to ensure that the solar cell design provides an appropriate power supply matched to the device needs and a battery or capaci- tor for holding the charge during periods when there is no light. Plastic thin-film organic solar cells could play a signifi- cant role within 2–5 years, powering sensors, communica- tions, or other devices on stand-alone vehicles (e.g., railcars or untethered trailers) or pipelines in remote locations that are hard to monitor. The ability to provide capability for safety and security without having to change batteries is significant, and these devices are made of common, non-toxic materials. Nanopiezoelectronics will take longer to reach the mar- ketplace. Whereas solar cells depend on the sun for power gen- eration, nanopiezoelectronics technology generates power from motion such as bending wires. This technology is grad- ually developing to the point at which power levels will be suf- ficient for practical use. So far this power has been able to light an LED. It is at an earlier stage of development than the other alternative power generating technologies, but its progress is rapid and products based on this technology are likely to be very affordable. 4.1.6 Where and How Could the Most Promising Emerging Technologies in the Infrastructure Group Be Used? The two technologies researched, self-sealing materials and sandwich structures, are representative developments but by no means the only designs being considered for improved con- tainer integrity. The greatest concern driving these designs is the release of bulk TIH from rail tank cars. The chemical and rail industries working together have been leading the way in this area, and research by U.S. DOT and others is continuing. As a hallmark of the perceived importance of this area, mil- lions of dollars are expected to be invested over the next few years directed at strengthening containers. These are pri- marily large tanks such as on railcars, but the same designs can benefit smaller containers and even pipeline design to an extent. For containers on vehicles, one concern in the trade- offs involved in stronger designs is additional weight (as well as size) that not only reduces fuel efficiency, but must also be considered for its effect on railway and roadway design limits. 4.2 Recommendations The team examined all the information gathered during the project to determine how the findings would have great- est benefits to the Hazmat transportation community. The resulting observations and recommendations are made both on a technical and a temporal basis and with regard to what is known of funding needs and availability. Table 4-1 shows the relative maturity comparisons of technologies for which interviews were conducted by technology areas and maturity timeframes. 58

4.2.1 Technologies on the Verge of the Marketplace Most (7 of 9) of the technology areas, representing 11 of 23 developing technology interviews, have one or more prod- ucts expected to reach the marketplace in the short term (i.e., less than 2 years). These include the following technol- ogy areas: • Networked RFID, ubiquitous sensors and cargo monitoring • Pressure gauges and chemical detection sensors • Advanced locks and seals • Intelligent video tracking and surveillance • Wireless power • Plastic thin-film organic solar cells • Container integrity These technology products have momentum and appear to be getting the level of private investment or public sector funding that they need to continue moving forward. Four of these seven technology areas maturing in the short term also have products maturing in the 2–5 year timeframe. One of these seven technology areas (wireless power) has products maturing only in the short term. 4.2.2 Technologies Recommended for Operational Test When Ready A lower number (5 of 9) of the technology areas, represent- ing 7 of 23 developing technology interviews, have one or more products expected to reach the marketplace within 2–5 years. This includes the following technology areas: • Networked RFID, ubiquitous sensors and cargo monitoring • Advanced locks and seals • Intelligent video tracking and surveillance • Nanopiezoelectronics • Plastic thin-film organic solar cells Four of these five technology areas have other products that are expected to enter the marketplace in the short term, which is an indication that the products emerging in the 2–5 year timeframe would also have some developmental momentum. The one remaining technology area (nanopiezoelectronics) only has a product maturing in the 2–5 year timeframe. The lowest number of the technology areas, representing 3 of 9 developing technology interviews, has one or more prod- ucts maturing in the 6–10 year timeframe. Two of the three technology areas have products maturing in the short term, which suggests a technology gap within a similar area that has to be bridged in one case (the pressure gauges and chemical detection sensors technology area), and the variety of differ- ent solutions to strengthening tanks in the other (container integrity technology area). One technology area (fiber-optic/ photonic sensors and optical scanners) only has a product maturing in the 6–10 year timeframe, which seems to correlate to the products with similar technology in the pressure gauges and chemical detection sensors technology area that are matur- ing in the 6–10 year timeframe. 4.2.3 Technologies Recommended for Assistance One of the technologies cross-cutting in its usefulness is chemical detection sensors. These devices can be used to 59 Table 4-1. Technology maturity comparison. Short Term 2-5 Years 6-10 Years Category Totals Networked RFID, ubiquitous sensors and cargo monitoring 3 2 5 Pressure gauges and chemical detection sensors 2 3 5 Fiber-optic/photonic sensors and optical scanners 1 1 Advanced locks and seals 1 1 2 Intelligent video tracking and surveillance 1 1 2 Wireless power 2 2 Nanopiezoelectronics 1 1 Plastic thin-film organic solar cells 1 2 3 Container integrity 1 1 2 Numbers of technology interviews 11 7 5 23

monitor leaks or releases in tanks and pipelines as well as con- ditions at critical fixed locations. They can provide not only detection and alerting, but can also measure concentrations. The most sophisticated—and thus the most challenging to develop—are those that can sample the environment and determine what substance of concern is present and in what concentration. Those sensors can be very useful for monitor- ing key infrastructure such as tunnels or strategic chokepoints. Where possible, their portability will greatly assist emergency responders. The technical challenges in creating advanced chemical detection sensor and analysis systems that are accurate, rugged, affordable, and with a low false alarm rate are consid- erable. This technology capability is represented by the pres- sure gauges and chemical detection sensors and fiber-optic/ photonic sensors and optical scanners. Two developing chem- ical detection systems from the pressure gauges and chemical detection sensors technology area are identified as Level 4-5 and projected to mature in the short term. Three of the pres- sure gauges and chemical detection sensors technologies— involving nanowire technology, color metric barcodes, and gas chromatography—are at Level 2 and projected to mature in the 6–10 year timeframe. The sole representative of the fiber-optic/photonic sensors and optical scanners technology area is identified as Level 1–2 and projected to mature in the 6–10 year timeframe. These related products maturing in the 6–10 year timeframe in both technology areas are perceived to be more advanced and sophisticated developments involv- ing higher development risk. The ability for the output of these sensing and analysis systems to be transmitted by both wireless and wired/fiber-optic means is evident from the associated systems discussed in this report. On balance, the payoff for realizing the great potential from this technology area makes it a candidate for assistance. Nanopiezoelectronics is another technology at an early development stage (Level 1–2), but which is believed capable of transitioning to adoption relatively quickly (2–5 years) given adequate funding. It is important for developers to con- tinue increasing the amount of power that can be generated through this means. The ability to generate power from small motions, even flow turbulence, should make this a valuable cross-cutting technology for the future for all modes in con- junction with miniaturization trends. 4.2.4 Technologies to Monitor for Progress One container integrity technology—the sandwich structure—is projected to mature in the 6–10 year timeframe. It appears to have usefulness beyond Hazmat transportation, including military applications. Because of its relatively long development cycle, and in view of other related con- tainer strengthening initiatives underway, it is a technology to monitor. 4.2.5 Use of This Report The size of any investment in leading-edge technologies can be quite large and the ROI cannot be assured. With the knowl- edge gained from the conduct of this project, the HMCRP and its stakeholders will gain knowledge of which technologies can be expected to have the greatest impact or promise when applied to Hazmat transportation safety and security. Consequently, the HMCRP will be able to share informa- tion from the project’s findings that will help both the public and private sectors make informed decisions about emerging technologies that they may wish to deploy. The findings will help them better understand how technologies can be made to work together effectively, as well as how technology gaps can keep systems from performing at a higher level. Moreover, it is conceivable that the information from the project could help accelerate development of certain technologies if the common interest among groups is recognized. Perhaps, one of the best ways to determine the success of this project is to measure the number of government transporta- tion officials, shippers and carriers, emergency responders, and other stakeholders seeking the results of this study. A secondary means is to gauge the number of organizations that access and subsequently use the project’s findings to inform their plans to incorporate technologies for Hazmat trans- portation safety and security. Whether these data are captured through uploaded “success stories” or some other means is beyond the scope of this project. Making determinations about the maturity timelines and usefulness of technologies that are in development is not an exact science. Therefore, going forward, it is recommended that a program of retrospective case studies be undertaken to exam- ine success or failure of new technologies as applied to Hazmat transportation safety and security. 60

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TRB’s Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program (HMCRP) Report 4: Emerging Technologies Applicable to Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety and Security explores near-term (less than 5 years) and longer-term (5–10 years) technologies that are candidates for enhancing the safety and security of hazardous materials transportation for use by shippers, carriers, emergency responders, or government regulatory and enforcement agencies.

The report examines emerging generic technologies that hold promise of being introduced during these near- and longer-term spans. It also highlights potential impediments (e.g., technical, economic, legal, and institutional) to, and opportunities for, their development, deployment, and maintenance.

The research focused on all modes used to transport hazardous materials (trucking, rail, marine, air, and pipeline) and resulted in the identification of nine highly promising emerging technologies.

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