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Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies (2011)

Chapter: Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data

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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6 - Analyze and Document Data." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14559.
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After the project team collects existing and new HMCFS data, it analyzes the data and docu- ments the commodity flows. A flow chart of the HMCFS process focusing on data analysis and documentation is shown in Figure 6-1. Analyses of HMCFS commodity flow data can be straight- forward or complex, depending on the existing or new data sources used and the amount of manipulation or cross-referencing required. 1. The simplest analyses will involve reviewing existing local, state, or national estimates for commodity flows (assuming those apply to the location of interest) and developing a listing of hazardous materials expected in a community by class, division, UN/NA placard ID num- ber, or specific commodity. 2. Analysis complexity increases as more locally relevant data are used (e.g., vehicle and/or plac- ard counts). 3. For most local entities, the most complex HMCFS data analyses will identify differences in commodity flows spatially (e.g., different network segments, intersections, etc.), temporally (time of day, day of week, season of year, etc.), or some type of spatial–temporal combina- tion (e.g., “hotspots”). 4. For most LEPCs, shipping manifest data would be used on a limited basis to provide an indi- cation of where hazardous material is going on major roadway networks, as well as amounts and types of non-placarded hazardous material being transported. Modeling of network flows using shipment origin–destination (O/D) data from shipping manifests is typically performed by transportation specialists in large metropolitan planning offices, state agencies, universities, or consulting firms. This type of analysis is much more specialized than most local entities are equipped to handle. Although analyses of some existing data might not require any data manipulation, a more complex analysis involving other existing or new data sources will require computing resources and personnel that are skilled in data management and validation, spreadsheet creation and charting, mapping, and even statistical analysis. 6.1 Railway, Pipeline, Waterway, and Airway Data Analysis Generally, analyzing HMCFS information for railways, pipelines, and waterways is straight- forward. • Most data come from existing, previously compiled data sources. • The existing flow information is based on a census of all hazmat traffic in the case of railways and waterways, and assumed to be continuous in the case of pipelines. 57 C H A P T E R 6 Analyze and Document Data

• Typically, there is no need to deal with sampling limitations, except, for example, if the STB Railway Sample Data are used, existing information is provided by shippers, receivers, and carriers, or new data are collected using some type of sampling to identify daily, weekly, or seasonal patterns in rail traffic. It is likely that locally relevant existing flow information for airways will be unavailable if it is not provided by air carriers serving the jurisdiction, and the BTS Commodity Flow Survey rep- resents the only other major source of publicly available data on hazmat transport by air. Table 6-1 lists hazmat flow data characteristics for railway, pipeline, waterway, and airway modes. Table 6-2 lists hazmat flow data analysis output characteristics by data source for these modes, the maximum level of HMCFS objective for which they are typically applicable, their gen- eral relevance to a local HMCFS, and a rating indicating the expected effort required for analysis. 58 Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies Figure 6-1. The HMCFS analysis and documentation process.

6.2 Truck/Roadway Data Analysis The project team has many approaches for analysis of existing and new roadway data, depend- ing on the type of information collected. Examples of these approaches are summarized in Tables 6-3 and 6-4. Table 6-3 lists hazmat flow characteristics and Table 6-4 lists hazmat flow data analy- sis output characteristics for these examples. Table 6-4 also lists the level of HMCFS objective to which these approaches correspond. Analysis of hazmat flows corresponding to many of the examples listed in Tables 6-3 and 6-4 are discussed in Appendix K. Note that specific applica- tions, relevance, and effort required may not conform to these example summaries. They are not exhaustive of all potential analysis possibilities using the existing or new data sources discussed in Chapters 4 and 5. 6.3 Document the Data After analyzing the existing and new HMCFS data, the project team prepares, summarizes, and documents the HMCFS data for presentation to the core team. Remember that the purpose of the HMCFS process is to enhance a local jurisdiction’s ability to estimate or quantify the risks Analyze and Document Data 59 Hazmat Commodity Flow Data Characteristics Trans. Mode Hazmat Commodity Flow Data Source Spatial Applicability Temporal Framework Metrics/ Units Material Description Sampling Framework Railway, Pipeline, Waterway, Airway BTS Commodity Flow Survey State/national Annual, every 5 years Value, tons, and ton-miles Variable, includes overall hazmat, class/division, and UN/NA ID Stratified (national) Railway, Pipeline, Waterway, Airway FHWA Freight Analysis Framework State/national Annual Value and tons SCTG Variable Railway STB Carload Waybill Sample data Regional/state (assume routes) Shipment date No. of tons or carloads Specific commodity Stratified (national) Railway Railroad carrier information Local network As provided (annual) No. of carloads As provided (class, specific commodity?) Census (for hazmat) Pipeline PHMSA National Pipeline Mapping System Local network Assumed continuous Assumed continuous Crude, nat’l. gas, petrol. prods., etc. Assumed continuous Waterway USACE reports Local network Annual No. of tons Commodity groups Census Waterway USACE reports with commodity code/ placard ID cross reference Local network Annual No. of tons Commodity groups w/assoc. UN/NA IDs Census Waterway USACE reports with carrier, facility info Local network As provided (seasonal or monthly?) No. of tons or shipments As provided (spec. commod.?) Census Table 6-1. Hazmat flow data characteristics, by source, for railway, pipeline, waterway, and airway transport modes.

that are present associated with the flow of hazardous material into, out of, within, and through an area. This ability depends on the following three critical components: 1. Identifying where, when, and how hazardous material is transported; 2. Identifying what is transported (type of hazardous material and associated characteristics); and 3. Determining the consequences associated with incident occurrence (incident likelihood and who may be impacted). 6.3.1 Identifying Hazmat Flows With a wide range of data sources and HMCFS objectives, the project team’s potential options for identifying hazmat flows range considerably. Generally, the flow information is used to assess risks, and provides context for the decisions associated with the HMCFS project’s objectives and emergency planning and response. Flow estimates might use only existing data, a mix of exist- ing and new data, or all new data. The sampling and precision of the source data determines the specificity of information that can be concluded about hazmat transport. Examples of how haz- mat flows can be analyzed and documented are provided in Appendix K. 6.3.2 Risk Estimation Procedures for conducting risk assessment calculations are well established and depend on specific characteristics of the local setting, commodities that are transported, and modes of trans- 60 Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies Trans. Mode Hazmat Commodity Flow Data Source Hazmat Commodity Flow Data Analysis Output Characteristics Max. Appl. Level Local HMCFS Relevanc e Required Analysis Effort Railway, Pipeline, Waterway, Airway BTS Commodity Flow Survey Lists, tables, or spreadsheets of flow inform ation, may be displayed using charts; source of data for other federal freight data publications Minimu m Scenario Low Low Railway, Pipeline, Waterway, Airway FHWA Freight Analysis Framework Lists, tables, spreadsheets, or ma ps of flow inform ation, may be displayed using charts; data sourced fro m other federal freight data publications Minimu m Scenario Low High Railway STB Carload Waybill Sample data Lists, tables, or spreadsheets of estim ated commodity flows over rail lines in region Equipm ent Need s Low– Medium High Railway Railroad carrier information Lists, tables, spreadsheets, or ma ps of comm odity flows over rail lines, as available Comprehensive Planning Medium – High Medium Pipeline NPMS data Tables or ma ps of pipeline types and locations Comprehensive Planning Medium Low Waterway USACE reports Tables or spreadsheets of comm odity group flows Maximu m Scenario Low Low Waterway USACE reports with comm od. code/placard ID cross reference Tables or spreadsheets of comm odity group flows with associated placard IDs Em erg. Planning Medium Medium Waterway USACE reports with carrier, facility info Tables, spreadsheets, or ma ps of specific commodity or commodity group flows in waterways, along with associated placard IDs, as available Comprehensive Planning Low–High Medium–High Table 6-2. Hazmat flow data output, applicability, relevance, and analysis effort required, by source, for railway, pipeline, waterway, and airway transport modes.

port. Risk estimation is especially applicable for designation of hazmat route analysis but can also be useful for other HMCFS objectives. When based on sufficient existing or new data, hazmat flows can be characterized by com- modity movements (e.g., tons, carloads, or number of vehicle/placard observations) on a spatial (e.g., each route or route segment) and temporal (e.g., daily, monthly, annually, etc.) basis. Risk is identified by combining the commodity flow information with historical incident/accident information to identify potential impacts on populations or environmentally sensitive areas. It is important to remember that such estimates can be highly inaccurate when low-level sampling techniques or small sample sizes are used, or the data are imprecise. Some suggested sources for further information on hazmat transport risk analysis are as follows: • Highway Routing of Hazardous Materials: Guidelines for Applying Criteria (13). • Guidelines for Chemical Transportation Risk Analysis (26). 6.3.3 Spatial Elements of Risk Estimation A focus on the routes or segments with hazmat flows that contribute most significantly to the overall risk in the study area can provide insight into bet- ter management techniques and even risk mitigation. Considerations for spa- tial analyses of hazmat transport and risk estimation include the following: • Routes or route segments contribute significantly to risk when they are characterized by high frequency of hazmat flows. Analyze and Document Data 61 Hazmat Flow Data Characteristics Hazmat Commodity Flow Data Source Spatial Applicability Temporal Framework Metrics / Units Material Description Sampling Framework CFS State/national Every 5 year s Value, tons, and ton-miles Includes overall hazm at, class/division, and UN/NA ID Stratified (national) FAF Entire county or state Annual Estim ated value and tons Commodity groups Stratified (national) HPMS data w/VIUS data Local network Annual Estimated total and hazmat trucks Must apply VIUS data for hazm at classes Unknown Truck count w/VIUS data Local network, as collected As collected Total trucks, estimated hazmat trucks Must apply VIUS data for hazm at classes Stratified (national) Truck type count w/VIUS data Local network, as collected As collected Total trucks, trucks by type/configuration, estim ated hazmat trucks Must apply VIUS data for hazm at classes, by truck type Stratified (national) Placard count w/truck count Local network, as collected As collected Total trucks, percent trucks with placard None As sa mp led Placard ID count Local network, as collected As collected Num ber and type of placards Specific placard ID As sam pled Truck count w/ placard ID count Local network, as collected As collected Total trucks, percent trucks with and without placard, number and type of placards Specific placard ID As sam pled Truck type and configuration count w/placard ID count Local network, as collected As collected Total trucks, trucks by type/configuration, percent trucks with placard by type and configuration, num ber and type of placards Specific placard ID As sam pled Truck/ Roadway Interviews with carriers, shippers, receiver s As provided As provided (seasonal or mo nthly ?) As provided As provided Truck/ Roadway Manifest surveys As collected Shipment volume/weight Specific commodity name As sampled Table 6-3. Hazmat flow data characteristics, by source, for truck/roadway transport mode. EPA’s ALOHA software and the Emergency Response Guidebook (available from PHMSA) were used to determine potential hazmat incident impact radii and identify high risk areas along major trans- port corridors in Arizona. High risk and environmentally sensitive hotspots were identified on maps.

• Routes or route segments that frequently exceed capacity, are narrow or winding, are frequently under construction, have (draw) bridges, tunnels, or other bottlenecks are often characterized by high accident rates and become priorities for more extensive analysis. • Routes or route segments with special populations located nearby—such as schools, hospitals or nursing homes—also receive high priority. • Routes or route segments with truck stops, weigh stations, rest stops, and siding-tracks may receive attention because of the associated delays along the route, increasing the duration that transported hazardous materials are present. 6.3.4 Temporal Elements of Risk Estimation As supported by the data, the HMCFS should consider the temporal patterns of hazmat trans- port by time of day, day of the week, or season of the year. Considerations for temporal analyses of hazmat transport and risk estimation include the following: • Metropolitan and large urban areas usually exhibit daily traffic patterns that can have a signifi- cant impact on hazmat flows and thus need to be considered. 62 Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies Hazmat Commodity Flow Data Source Hazmat Commodity Flow Data Analysis Output Characteristics Maximum Objective Level Local HMCFS Relevanc e Required Effort CF S Lists, tables, or spreadsheets of flow inform ation, may be displayed using charts; source of data for other federal freight data publications Minimu m Scenario Low Low FAF Lists or tables of comm odity groups for county Minimu m Scenario Low High HPMS data with VIUS data Lists or tables of comm odity classes expected to be present in community; chart of truck traffic patterns as supported by data Minimu m Scenario Low Low Truck count wi th VIUS data Lists or tables of comm odity classes expected to be present in community; chart of truck traffic patterns as supported by data Minimu m Scenario Low Low– Medium Truck type count with VIUS data Lists or tables of comm odity classes expected to be present in community; chart of truck traffic patterns as supported by data Minimu m Scenario Low– Medium Medium Placard count with truck count Lists or tables of hazm at presence or absence at surveyed locations (percent trucks with hazm at placard); chart of truck traffic patterns as supported by data Minimu m Scenario Low– Medium Low– Medium Placard ID count Lists, tables, or charts of placard IDs observed by road network segm ent and/or ti me Resourc e Scheduling Medium – High Medium – High Truck count wi th placard ID count Lists, tables, charts, or ma ps of placard IDs observed by road network segment and/or time; proportion of truck traffic with placard; chart of truck traffic patterns as supported by data Route Designation High Medium – High Truck type and configuration count with placard ID count Lists, tables, charts, or ma ps of placard IDs observed by road network segm ent and/or ti me; proportion of truck traffic with placard, by truck type; chart of truck traffic patterns as supported by data Route Designation High High Interviews with carriers, shippers, receiver s Lists, tables, charts, or ma ps of specific commodity carried, by road network, as supported by data Legal Takings High High Manifest surveys Lists, tables, charts, or ma ps of specific commodity carried, including quantity, road network, and truck type, as supported by data Legal Takings High High Table 6-4. Hazmat flow data output, applicability, relevance, and analysis effort required, by source, for truck/roadway transport mode.

• Daily variations in overall traffic patterns and flows may arise due to shift changes, commutes to work, and school hours. • Communities that lack major through-routes will typically have substantially less traffic during the dead-of-night hours than during daylight hours. • When compared with daylight-hour traffic, communities with major through-routes may see only a moderate reduction in traffic on these routes during the dead-of-night hours. • Nearly all communities in the United States exhibit weekly traffic patterns, with weekdays and weekends exhibiting marked differences. • Many areas experience seasonal variations in traffic associated with the economic activity of the area (e.g., agricultural areas have planting and harvesting seasons, petroleum refining areas have seasonal production patterns, etc.). Figure 6-2 illustrates variations in traffic patterns as a percentage of daily traffic by time of day, taken from FHWA’s Traffic Monitoring Guide (14). This figure illustrates differences between rural and urban cars, business day trucks, and through trucks on an example highway where each curve represents 100 percent of traffic for each vehicle category (i.e., just over 4 percent of through truck traffic per time period times 24 hours equals 100 percent). A jurisdiction’s traffic flows may show very different patterns, especially across roadway types (highways, arterials, secondary roads, etc.) 6.3.5 Hazmat Incident/Accident Likelihoods Careful examination of local incident/accident history can help inform emergency response staffing, scheduling, and resource allocation decisions. If incident or accident data and traffic volume data are available, the likelihood of a hazmat accident is determined by multiplying the accident rate by the volume of hazmat traffic. Areas that have not experienced prior incidents can estimate incident likelihood based on state, regional, or national averages. Figure 6-3 provides an example of how incident or accident data may be analyzed, applied to hourly frequencies of serious in-transit hazmat highway incidents reported to PHMSA between 2002 and 2008 across the United States. Two patterns are readily apparent in these data. First, the weekend–weekday difference indicates that weekends have lower accident rates—beginning around 4 A.M. on Saturday morning and continuing through to Monday morning rush hour at around 5 A.M. Secondly, the weekday pattern is relatively stable across days of the week—characterized by a Analyze and Document Data 63 Figure 6-2. Variation in traffic patterns by time of day. Source: FHWA Traffic Monitoring Guide (14), Figure 2-2-1.

slight increase in the early morning hours (i.e., right after midnight and declining after 3 or 4 A.M.), then increasing into the early hours of the workday (i.e., reaching a peak around 8 to 10 A.M.), and declining throughout the rest of the day (i.e., reaching low levels again around 10 or 11 P.M.). Local patterns may differ from these national trends, and apparent differences should be understood in light of local conditions. Jurisdictions with access to local accident information may be able to develop similar charts, whether for incidents involving hazardous materials, all truck accidents, or traffic accidents in the entire driving population. Note that patterns of truck traffic accidents may not directly compare with those of general traffic accidents, with truck acci- dents tending to be higher in the early daytime hours, and general traffic accidents higher later in the day. Unique spikes or dips that are not related to specific local conditions may require fur- ther validation. Interviews with key informants, such as emergency managers and responders, will be useful to the validation process. 6.3.6 Properties of Hazardous Materials Identifying every single hazardous material likely to be transported through an area is extremely difficult—especially when the nature of the hazmat flows in the area are complex and variable. Some jurisdictions find it advisable to concentrate on general classes of materials (e.g., flamma- bles, corrosives) being transported. When detailed data (i.e., UN/NA placard IDs) are available, they can be used to identify implications of various types of incidents in terms of their potential consequences. 64 Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies Figure 6-3. Hourly frequencies of highway in-transit incidents classified as “HMIS Serious.” Source: Texas Transportation Institute (using HMIS microdata).

Analyze and Document Data 65 Identifying Hazards and Initial Response Guidelines Commodity information may be used to identify potential hazard zones around routes or route segments in the study area. For example 1) Nearly all communities have flows of fuels, including UN/NA placard ID number 1203 (i.e., gasohol, gasoline, or motor spirits) among others. • The 2008 ERG indicates that this material is highly flammable and will ignite easily by heat, sparks, or flames, and may form explosive vapors when mixed with air. • The potential for irritation of the skin and eyes if inhaled or contacted are included among the health impacts. • Procedures outlined in the 2008 ERG (Guide Number 128) indicate immediate isolation of the spill or leak to a distance of 50 meters, with downwind evac- uation for large spills of at least 300 meters, and up to 800 meters in all direc- tions if the tank (car or truck) is involved in fire. 2) Many communities have flows of anhydrous ammonia (UN/NA placard ID 1005, ERG Guide Number 125) and chlorine (UN/NA placard ID 1017, ERG Guide Number 124). • The 2008 ERG suggests initial isolation of 30 and 60 meters for small spills of ammonia and chlorine, respectively, with daytime downwind evacuations of 0.1 and 0.2 km, respectively. Small nighttime spills increase the recommended evacuation distances to 0.2 and 1.6 km, respectively. • The 2008 ERG suggests isolation of 150 and 600 meters for large spills of ammonia and chlorine, respectively, and downwind daytime evacuation zones of 0.8 and 3.5 km, respectively. Nighttime distances expand to 2.3 and 8.0 km for large spills of ammonia and chlorine, respectively. Considerations for Identifying At-Risk Populations • The residential population in the potential hazard zone is of critical importance, especially during certain times (e.g., evenings, late nights, and weekends). • Retail and commercial areas are of particular interest during peak use periods (e.g., shopping malls during the holiday season, office buildings during typical work hours). • Special populations require special attention, especially those located in (or near) the potential hazard zone. Planners may wish to focus on special-population facilities that reside in a confluence of potential hazard zones associated with various routes or route segments. • Congregations of people for special gatherings (e.g., large sporting or enter- tainment events, fairs, religious or political events) also may require focused attention. Event planners may wish to consider relocating some events to venues outside the potential hazard zones.

6.3.7 Potential Consequences of Hazmat Releases The negative consequences of potential hazmat incidents are most often expressed in terms of the potential for human exposure. Consequences associated with potential incidents are most likely to occur among general populations, special populations, and mass congregations located in the hazard zone at the time of the incident. Consequences of hazmat exposures also can have great negative impacts for environmentally sensitive habitats or other areas (e.g., locations with historical or cultural significance). Software programs available from the U.S. EPA’s CAMEO suite (including CAMEO, MARPLOT, or ALOHA) can be used to model consequences of poten- tial hazmat releases. Further information about this software suite may be found at http://www.epa. gov/oem/content/cameo/index.htm. 6.3.8 Hotspots Analysis Spatial–temporal analysis, commonly called hotspots analysis, identifies times and places where the co-location of people and hazardous materials needs special attention. With at least four crit- ical components of hazmat risk analysis (i.e., time, space, hazardous materials, and people/ fauna/flora) and virtually infinite possibilities of each, the possible outcomes can seem both com- plex and somewhat overwhelming. Appendix D.9, Use Hotspots Analysis, is provided as a resource to assist the project team with conducting a hotspots analysis. 6.4 Summarize Information It is essential that HMCFS information prepared by the project team is useful for emergency planning. HMCFS users must understand the HMCFS, be comfortable with it, and able to extract needed information. The HMCFS information will be used by the core team to make decisions. Information for the HMCFS core team should be summarized to identify the critical points that will be needed for decision making. Lists, tables, charts, and maps may be used by the project team to present the information. CPG 101 (2) suggests organizing hazard information in a matrix. A matrix provides a format by which risks can be compared and prioritized. This concept can be adapted for compiling 66 Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies Tips for Summarizing HMCFS Information FEMA’s CPG 101 (2, p 3-18) suggests some basic rules for writing plans and proce- dures. Some of these rules can be applied to summaries of HMCFS information, including the following: • Keep the language simple and clear by writing in plain English. Summarize impor- tant information with checklists and visual aids, such as maps and flowcharts. • Avoid using jargon and minimize the use of acronyms. • Use short sentences and active voice. Qualifiers and vague words only add confusion. • Provide enough detail. . . . The amount of detail a plan should provide depends on the target audience and the amount of certainty about the situation. Plans written for a jurisdiction or organization with high staff turnover might require more detail.

HMCFS information according to the hazard analysis process dimensions listed in CPG 101, as follows: 1. Probability or frequency of occurrence (e.g., what are the frequencies of hazmat transport over different network segments? What are the incident rates?). 2. Magnitude—the physical force associated with the hazard or threat (e.g., how much hazmat might be released in a hazmat transport incident?). 3. Intensity/severity—the impact or damage expected (e.g., what are explosive or toxic impacts associated with potential hazmat releases?). 4. Duration—how long the hazard or threat will be active (e.g., do hazmat releases disperse/ neutralize on their own or require neutralization?). 5. Speed of onset—how fast the hazard or threat can impact the public (e.g., hazmat incidents are typically immediately acute, with incident timeframes of minutes to several hours). 6. Time available to warn (e.g., warning time for a hazmat release may depend on distance to populations, environmental conditions, topography, etc.). 7. Location of the event—an area of interest or a specific or indeterminate site or facility (e.g., ability to define individual locations or segments of interest may depend on network speci- ficity covered in the HMCFS). 8. Potential size of affected area—(e.g., initial isolation zones) affected by hazmat characteristics, environmental conditions, and topography. See the Technical Guidance for Hazards Analysis: Emergency Planning for Extremely Hazardous Substances (27) for examples of matrices used to summarize hazmat release information, worked examples, and information about chemical hazards. Analyze and Document Data 67 Considerations for Summarizing HMCFS Information FEMA’s CPG 101 suggests validation steps for emergency plans. Some of these steps can be adapted as considerations for summarizing HMCFS information as follows: • Is the HMCFS information sufficient to inform and accomplish emergency prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery planning? • Is the information consistent with the HMCFS objectives? Does it adequately address them? • Does the HMCFS information comply with assignments and guidance from lead- ership and management? • Are the assumptions valid? • Is the HMCFS structured in a way that lends consideration to homeland security and political supportability for emergency planning? 6.5 HMCFS Content The HMCFS report is prepared by the project team and should be a stand-alone document that can be readily integrated into a community’s emergency plans. Remember that an HMCFS is not an emergency plan by itself, but it forms a knowledge basis for many different aspects of emergency planning. Based on recommendations in CPG 101 for emergency plan content (with some additions), the following should be included in an HMCFS: • Front matter – Cover page, including title, data, jurisdictions covered, and authorship; – Approval page with appropriate senior officials’ signatures;

– Record of corrections, changes, or modifications (as applicable to individual documents, subsequent HMCFS efforts may focus on different locations, hazards, timeframes, etc. and might not be considered as a change); – Record of distribution; – List of entities involved the in HMCFS project, including HMCFS core team, HMCFS project team, key personnel, volunteers/data collectors, contractors, etc.; – Table of contents and lists of figures and tables; and – Situation overview (e.g., an executive summary of HMCFS information). • Main document – Purpose (HMCFS objectives); – Scope (jurisdiction, modes, and network segments that are included); – Background information (e.g., previous or adjacent jurisdiction HMCFS information, geo- graphical and environmental information about jurisdiction and communities; critical facility locations, etc.); – Methodology (overview of data collection methods, sampling, and precision); – HMCFS outcomes (the “meat” of the document—text, matrices, lists, tables, charts, graphs, maps, etc.—for different materials classifications, modes, and network segments, as applicable); – Assumptions and limitations (e.g., an HMCFS is a snapshot of hazmat commodity flows in a community at specific times and locations—does the hazard analysis assume that obser- vations are consistent with other times and/or locations?); – Conclusions and recommendations, including identification of most frequent or greatest threats, needs for additional intelligence, etc.; and – References, including all existing data sources, reports, statistics, and documents that were used—references should include author, performing agency, title, report or series volume and number, publication date, publisher, and other information as applicable. Additional information may be included in appendices including hazmat transportation reg- ulations and requirements, images, and other information (such as sampling forms or schedules) not included in main body of the HMCFS document. 68 Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies

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TRB’s Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program (HMCRP) Report 3: Guidebook for Conducting Local Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Studies is designed to support risk assessment, emergency response preparedness, resource allocation, and analyses of hazardous commodity flows across jurisdictions.

The guidebook updates the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Guidance for Conducting Hazardous Materials Flow Surveys. All modes of transportation, all classes and divisions of hazardous materials, and the effects of seasonality on hazardous materials movements are discussed in the guidebook.

The contractor’s final report and appendices (unedited by TRB), which documents the research supporting the development of the guidebook, are available online.

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