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Exhibit 5 (Continued) Core Job Function by Related Competencies Core Job Functions Related Competencies Real-Time Operations Strategies Maintenance of the capacity and safety of highways Operations by controlling traffic, responding to incidents, clearing snow and other obstructions, and providing information to users on highway conditions and alternatives. Systems and Technology Knowledge and understanding of the department's operating systems as well as the technology required to carry out real-time operations. Safety Focus on crash avoidance by enhancing driver performance, including advanced collision avoidance systems and the automated highway system. Security Precautions taken to guard against the danger, risk, or safety threats of major highways. Management of Real-Time Operations Systems The integration of key activities to ensure real-time monitoring of the traffic and travel conditions of major highways and sharing that information to improve transportation system security; address congestion; improve response to emergencies, weather events, and surface transportation incidents; and facilitate national and regional highway traveler information. The competencies highlighted represent the underlying KSA requirement for the positions previously described in Exhibit 4. All information presented was assembled from position descriptions and data collected during our literature review as well as from our SOM experts interviewed. 3.4 ESTIMATING FUTURE SOM WORKFORCE NEEDS Using the defined core function areas and related competency information associated with the SOM jobs titles identified (see Exhibit 4), our team mapped the job titles to a standard listing of Department of Labor (DOL) occupations to conduct the historical and future staffing estimates. The mapping exercise accomplished two goals. First, converting the DOT titles revealed through our data collection to Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) codes allowed our team to conduct these analyses using existing DOL labor market data and through a propriety workforce analysis tool developed by EMSI, Inc. EMSI's labor market research and forecasting tool compiles data from over 90 state and federal government sources, including data sets published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the U.S. Census Bureau. Second, this mapping exercise allowed our team to ensure that the specific occupational knowledge, skill, and ability needs of SOM jobs were represented in our staffing analysis. The DOL SOC codes that were identified through the mapping exercise are presented in Exhibit 6. The first column in the table represents the SOC codes of each occupation and the second column lists the title of each SOC code. Subsequent columns represent each of the five Work Function categories associated with SOM occupations. A " " mark represents an association between SOC codes and SOM-related Work Functions. As illustrated in Exhibit 6, the list of 21
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SOC codes identified broadly captures the entirety of functional characteristics existing within SOM occupations. This mapping exercise also revealed that the SOC codes found sufficiently cover the KSAs and work functions needed in SOM occupations. Exhibit 6 Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) Codes and Titles Mapped to SOM-Related Work Functions Dept. of Labor Policy (DOL) DOL Standard and Program Systems Project Real- SOC Code Occupation Title Strategic Planning Dvlpmnt Mngmnt Time Ops Computer and 11-3021 Information Systems Managers Network Systems and 15-1081 Data Communications Analysts Information 15-1099 Technology Project Managers 17-2051 Civil Engineers 17-2071 Electrical Engineers Civil Engineering 17-3022 Technicians Electronics 17-3023 Engineering Technicians Engineering 17-3029 Technicians, Except Drafters, All Other 43-5031 Dispatchers 47-2111 Electricians Highway Maintenance 47-4051 Workers 22
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Exhibit 6 (Continued) SOC Codes and Titles Mapped to SOM-Related Work Functions Policy DOL SOC DOL Standard and Program Systems Project Real- Code Occupation Title Strategic Planning Dvlpmnt Mngmnt Time Ops Electrical and Electronics Installers 49-2093 and Repairers, Transportation Equipment Maintenance and 49-9042 Repair Workers, General Signal and Track 49-9097 Switch Repairers 53-6041 Traffic Technicians It is important to point out that the SOC codes and the data associated with them do contain jobs that would not fall under this report's definition of the "SOM" and they include jobs from other related industries. For instance, "Dispatchers" includes jobs that might fall under police and fire. Similarly, the data reported for civil engineers includes civil engineers employed within other transportation modes as well as other industries. Nevertheless, this is the best national data available for these occupations, and at a macro level, it is apparent that each of these occupations serves an important indicator for the SOM workforce. By analyzing SOC data, we are able to determine if and how demand for these jobs will continue to increase over the next decade. This will assist the SOM community in planning for projected increases in staffing levels and assist in avoiding future workforce skill gaps due to amplified competition from other fields. Once the relevant SOC codes were identified, our team generated and analyzed historic, current, and future occupational estimates for SOM occupations. Our historical estimates provide information on the change in SOM-related occupations during the time period between 2005 and 2010. Our future occupational reports provide information on projected changes for SOM-related occupations between 2010 and 2015 as well as between 2010 and 2020. For all time periods, we conducted the occupational analysis at the national, regional (Northeast, South, Midwest, and West), and state levels. The regional distinctions used correspond with the U.S. Census Bureau's definitions. Exhibit 7 provides an overview of the specific states represented in each regional area. 23
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Exhibit 7 States Included in Each Regional Area Used to Conduct Occupational Analysis Regions State Areas Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Northeast Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Midwest Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New West Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia Historic SOM Staffing Estimates (20052010). This section presents our historical analysis of SOM staffing estimates across the representative SOC codes at the national levels. Region- and state-level historical analyses are provided in Appendix A of NCHRP Web-Only Document 182, which is available at http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/166342.aspx. In each table, the full list of SOM-related SOC codes is provided with their corresponding DOL standard occupational titles. Then, for each SOC code, we provide the total number of jobs in 2005, the total number of jobs in 2010, and the corresponding change. In addition, we provide the occupation's corresponding entry education level. All tables are sorted by `% Change' to highlight the occupations with the greatest job growth over the last 5 years. Exhibit 8 provides the national occupational change summary from 20052010. Exhibit 8 National--Historical Occupational Change Summary 20052010 SOC DOL Standard # of 2005 # of 2010 % Code Occupation Title Jobs Jobs Change Change Education Level Network systems and 15-1081 data communications 303,364 356,088 52,724 17% Bachelor's degree analysts Moderate-term on- 43-5031 Dispatchers 90,202 98,005 7,803 9% the-job training Signal and track Moderate-term on- 49-9097 31,704 34,549 2,845 9% switch repairers the-job training Computer specialists, 15-1099 224,950 237,783 12,833 6% Associate's degree all other Computer and Degree plus work 11-3021 information systems 297,123 306,710 9,587 3% experience managers 17-2051 Civil engineers 296,138 302,371 6,233 2% Bachelor's degree Civil engineering 17-3022 80,463 82,333 1,870 2% Associate's degree technicians Highway Moderate-term on- 47-4051 138,028 140,876 2,848 2% maintenance workers the-job training 24
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Exhibit 8 (Continued) National--Historical Occupational Change Summary 20052010 SOC DOL Standard # of 2005 # of 2010 % Code Occupation Title Jobs Jobs Change Change Education Level Short-term on-the- 53-6041 Traffic technicians 6,799 6,893 94 1% job training Maintenance and Moderate-term on- 49-9042 repair workers, 1,368,025 1,355,676 (12,349)* (1%) the-job training general Engineering 17-3029 technicians, except 71,603 70,019 (1,584) (2%) Associate's degree drafters, all other Transportation, Work experience in 11-3071 storage, and 106,034 101,736 (4,298) (4%) a related field distribution managers Electrical and electronics installers Postsecondary 49-2093 and repairers, 14,144 13,612 (532) (4%) vocational award transportation equipment 17-2071 Electrical engineers 159,420 152,126 (7,294) (5%) Bachelor's degree Electrical and electronic 17-3023 161,272 151,788 (9,484) (6%) Associate's degree engineering technicians Long-term on-the- 47-2111 Electricians 759,065 664,009 (95,056) (13%) job training * Change and % Change numbers that appear in parentheses and in red indicate negative change. There are several observations that can be derived from the national occupational change data provided in Exhibit 8, in conjunction with the regional occupational change data provided in Exhibits A-1 through A-4 included in Appendix A of NCHRP Web-Only Document 182. First, it is clear that the demand for the following three key SOM occupations has greatly increased over the last 5 years: Network systems and data communications analysts, Dispatchers, and Signal and track switch repairers. This finding was supported by our interview results as well. The majority of participants suggested that these three jobs are increasing in their organizations. Second, it is interesting to note that the demand for Civil Engineers has remained relatively constant over the last 5 years, between 0% and 4% across the regions, despite the downturn in the economy. This suggests that these jobs will remain a vital part of transportation organizations going forward. Lastly, on a national labor category level, demand has been steadily decreasing for the following three important SOM occupations over the last 5 years: Electrical engineers, Electrical and electronic engineering technician, and Electricians. This finding underscores the evolution of SOM occupations. It also represents potential cross-training opportunities of employees skilled in the area of Electronics over to Network systems and data communications analyst positions. 25
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Forecasted SOM Staffing Estimates (20102015 and 20152020). In this section, we present our analysis of SOM staffing estimates over the next 5-year (20102015) and 10-year (2010 2020) periods. As in the previous section, staffing estimates were derived using representative SOC codes and are provided at the national level. Region- and state-level future staffing analyses are provided as Appendix B in NCHRP Web-Only Document 182. In each table, the full list of SOM-related SOC codes is provided with their corresponding DOL standard occupational titles. Then, for each SOC code, we provide the total number of jobs in 2010, the total estimated number of jobs in 2015, and the total projected number of jobs in 2020. The resultant change is calculated for the period between 2010 and 2020. In addition, we provide the occupation's corresponding entry education level. All tables are sorted by `% Change' to highlight the occupations with the greatest job growth over the next 10 years. Exhibit 9 provides the national forecasted occupational change summary from 20102015 and 20102020. Exhibit 9 National--Forecasted Occupational Change Summary 2010, 2015, and 2020 % DOL Standard Change Change SOC Occupation # of 2010 # of 2015 # of 2020 (2010- (2010- Education Code Title Jobs Jobs Jobs 2020) 2020) Level Network systems and data Bachelor's 15-1081 356,088 432,635 500,975 144,887 41% communications degree analysts Bachelor's 17-2051 Civil engineers 302,371 343,268 368,168 65,797 22% degree Moderate-term Signal and track 49-9097 34,549 39,286 41,398 6,849 20% on-the-job switch repairers training Computer and Degree plus 11-3021 information 306,710 335,784 357,383 50,673 17% work experience systems managers Civil engineering Associate's 17-3022 82,333 91,627 96,525 14,192 17% technicians degree Moderate-term 43-5031 Dispatchers 98,005 107,604 113,239 15,234 16% on-the-job training Long-term on- 47-2111 Electricians 664,009 726,463 752,438 88,429 13% the-job training Computer Associate's 15-1099 specialists, all 237,783 256,543 268,962 31,179 13% degree other Maintenance and Moderate-term 49-9042 repair workers, 1,355,676 1,450,082 1,513,467 157,791 12% on-the-job general training Engineering Associate's 17-3029 technicians, except 70,019 72,173 74,006 3,987 6% degree drafters 26
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Exhibit 9 (Continued) National--Forecasted Occupational Change Summary 2010, 2015, and 2020 % DOL Standard Change Change SOC Occupation # of 2010 # of 2015 # of 2020 (2010- (2010- Education Code Title Jobs Jobs Jobs 2020) 2020) Level Short-term on- 53-6041 Traffic technicians 6,893 7,230 7,285 392 6% the-job training Highway Moderate-term 47-4051 maintenance 140,876 146,743 147,888 7,012 5% on-the-job workers training Electrical and electronics installers and Postsecondary 49-2093 13,612 13,969 14,149 537 4% repairers, vocational award transportation equipment Electrical Bachelor's 17-2071 152,126 154,331 155,772 3,646 2% engineers degree Transportation, storage, and Work experience 11-3071 101,736 103,425 101,644 (92)* 0% distribution in a related field managers Electrical and electronic Associate's 17-3023 151,788 150,130 149,249 (2,539) (2%) engineering degree technicians * Change and % Change numbers that appear in parentheses and in red indicate negative change. In reviewing the national and regional forecasted occupation change data (see Exhibits B-1 through B-4 included in Appendix B of NCHRP Web-Only Document 182), widespread growth is expected in the SOM field. Numerous SOM-related occupations are likely to experience substantial demand increases between 2010 and 2020, including Network systems and data communications analysts, Civil engineers, Signal and track switch repairers, Computer and information systems managers, Civil engineering technicians, Computer specialists, Maintenance workers, and Dispatchers. Even among the few occupations where the growth is expected to be negative or modest between 2010 and 2020 such as Electrical engineering, Electrical and electronic engineering technicians, and Engineering technicians, staffing projections indicate that there will be no major SOM staffing declines. This nearly unilateral growth was also supported by our interview data. The majority of SOM experts we interviewed believe SOM workforce needs would change and increase dramatically over the next 5 to 10 years. Experts were in agreement, speculating that DOTs will increase their focus on asset management as they begin to shift from an emphasis on capacity building and adding to the system to an emphasis on "taking care of what is already in place" and maximizing the operational capacity of the existing system. In other words, this could lead to an increased focus on systems becoming better managed, including higher levels of efficiency and effectiveness, as well as traffic throughput. Every participant stated that they believe SOM will have an increasingly important role in this shift. As a result, participants reiterated the need to 27