Cover Image

Not for Sale



View/Hide Left Panel
Click for next page ( 29


The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 28
emphasize the importance of SOM to senior executives. They indicated this would help to achieve greater buy-in while fostering a culture that understands and is capable of implementing new SOM technologies. 3.5 PRINCIPAL POOLS OF POTENTIAL WORKERS TO MEET FORECASTED SOM NEEDS In this section, principal pools of potential workers who may be available to meet forecast needs for SOM staff are identified. Considering demographic and economic trends, estimates of the likely numbers of people that might be attracted to SOM positions were developed. To conduct this analysis, our team assessed two essential components of the skills pipeline framework: Renewal Systems: This component represents opportunities to recruit new talent to the SOM field through the retraining of workers employed in related transportation occupations as well as the retraining of workers migrating from downsizing industries. Advancement Systems: This component of the skills pipeline comprises the educational system. It represents opportunities to attract new talent to the SOM field from four-year undergraduate and graduate programs. Additionally, post-secondary education provided by community and technical colleges is included. Each of these systems and their related analyses are described in detail below. Renewal Systems--Related Occupations There are many occupations directly related to SOM jobs that exist in other industries. The related jobs require core knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) that are similar to SOM jobs. Thus, people who hold these related jobs represent potential new, relatively qualified applicants for SOM positions. To establish related occupations and to conduct the renewal analyses, we identified occupations that are similar in nature to traditional SOM occupations using standard DOL occupational codes (i.e., SOCs). To begin, we started with the core list of SOC codes used to conduct the SOM historical and forecasted staffing estimates (see Exhibit 6 for core SOC list) and then added SOCs determined to require the same or similar KSAs. The `related' and `core' SOC codes were then combined into one `expanded' list of SOC codes. Specifically, the process of SOC association was based on assessing the KSA composition of core SOM occupations. For each core SOM occupation, our team identified similar occupations using the DOL occupational data. For example, a Traffic technician is a core SOM occupation. To conduct SOC association, we deconstructed Traffic technicians to examine its core knowledge, skills, and abilities. Next, using DOL data we found similar, linked occupations. Each linked occupation identified included KSAs associated with the original elements identified for Traffic technicians. By doing this, we were able to find occupations such as Emergency management specialists that require a KSA composition similar to the original SOM occupation. Once the initial expanded list was created, our internal transportation subject matter experts (SMEs) and occupational experts reviewed the expanded list of SOM occupations. The process of reviewing allowed us to eliminate certain SOCs that appeared to be related through KSAs but did not qualify on the basis of work activities performed at DOTs. Finally, we had an expanded list of SOCs that could potentially assist in creating the pipeline for SOM occupations. 28

OCR for page 28
The final expanded list is presented in Exhibit 10. This list was used to conduct analyses of the SOM renewal system. Exhibit 10 Expanded List of SOC Codes Based on KSA Association SOC Code Description Core Expanded 11-1011 Chief executives 11-1021 General and operations managers 11-3011 Administrative services managers 11-3021 Computer and information systems managers 11-3071 Transportation, storage, and distribution managers 11-9021 Construction managers 11-9041 Engineering managers 13-1051 Cost estimators 13-1061 Emergency management specialists 15-1011 Computer and information scientists, research 15-1081 Network systems and data communications analysts 15-1099 Computer specialists, all other 15-2031 Operations research analysts 17-1012 Landscape architects 17-1022 Surveyors 17-2051 Civil engineers 17-2071 Electrical engineers 17-2072 Electronics engineers, except computer 17-3011 Architectural and civil drafters 17-3022 Civil engineering technicians 17-3023 Electrical and electronic engineering technicians 17-3029 Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other 29-9011 Occupational health and safety specialists 33-3051 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 43-2099 Communications equipment operators, all other 43-5031 Police, fire, and ambulance dispatchers First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and 47-1011 extraction workers 47-2111 Electricians 47-4011 Construction and building inspectors 47-4051 Highway maintenance workers Electrical and electronics installers and repairers, 49-2093 transportation equipment 49-9042 Maintenance and repair workers, general 49-9097 Signal and track switch repairers 53-6041 Traffic technicians 29

OCR for page 28
After finalizing the expanded list of SOC codes associated with the SOM field, our team generated occupational reports to investigate the occupational growth/decline over the next 10 years (2010 to 2020). The results of the national analysis are presented below in Exhibit 11. The results of the region- and state-level analyses are provided in Appendix C, NCHRP Web-Only Document 182. Exhibit 11 National--Forecasted Renewal Systems--Related Occupations Summary 2010, 2015, and 2020 % Change Change SOC DOL Standard # of 2010 # of 2015 # of 2020 (2010- (2010- Education Code Occupation Title Jobs Jobs Jobs 2020) 2020) Level Network systems and Bachelor's 15-1081 data communications 356,088 432,635 500,975 144,887 41% degree analysts Work 13-1051 Cost estimators 207,429 239,169 260,529 53,100 26% experience in a related field Operations research 15-2031 63,446 71,992 78,281 14,835 23% Master's degree analysts Bachelor's 17-2051 Civil engineers 302,371 343,268 368,168 65,797 22% degree Emergency Work 13-1061 management 16,823 18,993 20,334 3,511 21% experience in a specialists related field Moderate-term Signal and track 49-9097 34,549 39,286 41,398 6,849 20% on-the-job switch repairers training Degree plus 11-1011 Chief executives 1,229,756 1,387,282 1,457,653 227,897 19% work experience Construction Bachelor's 11-9021 704,688 803,582 842,026 137,338 19% managers degree Computer and Doctoral 15-1011 information 66,122 73,892 78,970 12,848 19% degree scientists, research First-line supervisors/managers Work 47-1011 of construction trades 976,603 1,110,863 1,164,824 188,221 19% experience in a and extraction related field workers Computer and Degree plus 11-3021 information systems 306,710 335,784 357,383 50,673 17% work managers experience Civil engineering Associate's 17-3022 82,333 91,627 96,525 14,192 17% technicians degree 30

OCR for page 28
Exhibit 11 (Continued) National--Forecasted Renewal Systems--Related Occupations Summary 2010, 2015, and 2020 % Change Change SOC DOL Standard # of 2010 # of 2015 # of 2020 (2010- (2010- Education Code Occupation Title Jobs Jobs Jobs 2020) 2020) Level Work Construction and 47-4011 120,623 134,661 141,632 21,009 17% experience in a building inspectors related field Police, fire, and Moderate-term 43-5031 ambulance 98,005 107,604 113,239 15,234 16% on-the-job dispatchers training Bachelor's 17-1012 Landscape architects 57,881 63,972 66,412 8,531 15% degree Bachelor's 17-1022 Surveyors 52,479 58,083 60,105 7,626 15% degree Computer specialists, Associate's 15-1099 237,783 256,543 268,962 31,179 13% all other degree Long-term on- 47-2111 Electricians 664,009 726,463 752,438 88,429 13% the-job training Degree plus Administrative 11-3011 250,736 270,476 281,696 30,960 12% work services managers experience Maintenance and Moderate-term 49-9042 repair workers, 1,355,676 1,450,082 1,513,467 157,791 12% on-the-job general training Occupational health Bachelor's 29-9011 52,818 56,449 58,526 5,708 11% and safety specialists degree Postsecondary Architectural and 17-3011 106,753 116,123 117,399 10,646 10% vocational civil drafters award Degree plus Engineering 11-9041 177,569 183,977 189,743 12,174 7% work managers experience Police and sheriff's Long-term on- 33-3051 632,770 667,476 678,576 45,806 7% patrol officers the-job training Engineering Associate's 17-3029 technicians, except 70,019 72,173 74,006 3,987 6% degree drafters, all other Short-term on- 53-6041 Traffic technicians 6,893 7,230 7,285 392 6% the-job training Moderate-term Highway 47-4051 140,876 146,743 147,888 7,012 5% on-the-job maintenance workers training 31

OCR for page 28
Exhibit 11 (Continued) National--Forecasted Renewal Systems--Related Occupations Summary 2010, 2015, and 2020 % Change Change SOC DOL Standard # of 2010 # of 2015 # of 2020 (2010- (2010- Education Code Occupation Title Jobs Jobs Jobs 2020) 2020) Level Electrical and electronics installers Postsecondary 49-2093 and repairers, 13,612 13,969 14,149 537 4% vocational transportation award equipment Degree plus General and 11-1021 1,827,263 1,889,851 1,880,297 53,034 3% work operations managers experience Bachelor's 17-2071 Electrical engineers 152,126 154,331 155,772 3,646 2% degree Electronics Bachelor's 17-2072 engineers, except 138,246 137,982 139,407 1,161 1% degree computer Transportation, Work storage, and 11-3071 101,736 103,425 101,644 (92)* 0% experience in a distribution related field managers Electrical and electronic Associate's 17-3023 151,788 150,130 149,249 (2,539) (2%) engineering degree technicians Communications Short-term on- 43-2099 equipment operators, 2,748 2,624 2,422 (326) (12%) the-job training all other * Change and % Change numbers that appear in parentheses and in red indicate negative change. Results of the SOM-related occupations renewal system through the expanded list of SOC codes are encouraging. The data suggest that related occupations will also be experiencing rapid job growth over the next 5 to 10 years, which indicates that the potential pool of applicants that might transfer or retrain into an SOM job from a related industry is increasing. These related occupations include Cost estimators, Operations research analysts, Emergency management specialists, Construction managers, First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers, Construction and building inspectors, and Police, fire, and ambulance dispatchers. Of course, the data also suggest that competition for premium talent may also increase as related industries increasingly desire the skills necessary in SOM fields. Renewal System Findings--Shrinking Industry Sectors Potential pools of new workers also exist within related industries that are expected to experience downsizing over the next 5 to 10 years. Many employees in these sectors will likely be seeking new job opportunities as their field shrinks. In cases where the migrating employees possess KSAs similar to those needed in SOM, they can be retrained to meet SOM demand at DOTs. 32

OCR for page 28
In this section, industry sectors that are forecasted to shrink between 2010 and 2020 are identified. Results are presented at the national and regional levels. For each, a bubble chart presents the size and relative growth/shrinkage of prominent industry sectors in terms of occupational growth/decline percentages between 2010 and 2020. The bubble chart is followed by a tabular representation of the same information with 2010 and 2020 occupational numbers. Exhibit 12 provides the national industry growth data. The exhibits that provide the regional data are included in Appendix D, NCHRP Web-Only Document 182. Exhibit 12 National--Industry Size and Growth Estimates 20102020 % Current Description 2010 Jobs 2020 Jobs Growth Growth EPW* Agriculture, natural resources, and mining 4,531,569 4,553,584 22,015 0% $44,088 Construction 9,443,666 11,248,682 1,805,016 19% $54,357 Education and health services 22,987,292 28,224,915 5,237,623 23% $47,197 Financial activities 16,649,492 20,691,874 4,042,382 24% $51,643 Government 23,747,888 25,265,528 1,517,640 6% $63,216 Information 3,296,015 3,553,998 257,983 8% $76,101 Leisure and hospitality 15,582,276 17,205,411 1,623,135 10% $21,736 Manufacturing 12,518,401 11,739,347 -779,054 -6% $67,354 Other services 9,187,746 10,242,448 1,054,702 11% $28,799 Professional and business services 24,187,428 29,925,136 5,737,708 24% $56,755 Trade, transportation, and utilities 30,979,855 32,770,376 1,790,521 6% $44,468 * EPW=Earnings Per Worker Source: EMSI Complete Employment--2nd Quarter 2010. 33

OCR for page 28
In reviewing the industry size and growth estimate data, it is clear that opportunities exist for the retraining of workers from downsizing industries. For example, the Manufacturing; Agriculture, natural resources, and mining; and Government sectors are forecasted to experience shrinkage or minimal growth over the next 10 years. The Manufacturing sector alone is projected to experience a decrease of about 779,000 jobs nationwide while the Agriculture, natural resources, and mining industry is estimated to lose more that 46,000 jobs in the Midwest and almost 20,000 jobs in the South. This indicates that migrating workers from these industries could be prime candidates for targeted SOM recruitment and development programs, if training is provided. Advancement Systems As described, the SOM advancement system is the portion of the skills pipeline that comprises the educational system. It represents opportunities to attract new talent to the SOM field from post-secondary programs. Additionally, it represents post-secondary education provided by community and technical colleges. To more fully understand SOM skill `supply,' a detailed analysis of the SOM advancement system was conducted. To begin, we utilized the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) crosswalk between DOL SOC codes and Department of Education (DOE) Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) codes. The crosswalk allowed our team to derive a mapping of the expanded SOC list to existing educational programs across the United States (see Exhibit 6). This mapping exercise was undertaken to establish the link between SOM-related occupations and existing programs of study that render young professionals with post-secondary degrees in relevant educational fields. The resultant list of CIP codes is presented in Exhibit 13. Exhibit 13 CIP Codes--Department of Education (DOE) Standard Educational Programs Related to SOM Occupations CIP Code Standard Education Program Description 04.02 Architecture 04.03 City/Urban, Community and Regional Planning 04.04 Environmental Design 04.06 Landscape Architecture 04.09 Architectural Technology/Technician 11.01 Computer and Information Sciences, General 11.03 Data Processing 11.04 Information Science/Studies 11.05 Computer Systems Analysis 11.07 Computer Science 11.09 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications 11.99 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other 14.01 Engineering, General 14.04 Architectural Engineering 34

OCR for page 28
Exhibit 13 (Continued) CIP Codes--DOE Standard Educational Programs Related to SOM Occupations CIP Code Standard Education Program Description 14.08 Civil Engineering 14.09 Computer Engineering, General 14.10 Electrical, Electronics, and Communications Engineering 14.11 Engineering Mechanics 14.19 Mechanical Engineering 14.27 Systems Engineering 14.33 Construction Engineering 14.37 Operations Research 14.38 Surveying Engineering 14.99 Engineering, Other 15.01 Architectural Engineering Technologies/Technicians 15.02 Civil Engineering Technologies/Technicians 15.03 Electrical Engineering Technologies/Technicians 15.05 Environmental Control Technologies/Technicians 15.07 Quality Control and Safety Technologies/Technicians 15.10 Construction Engineering Technologies 15.11 Engineering-Related Technologies 15.12 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians 15.13 Drafting/Design Engineering Technologies/Technicians 30.17 Behavioral Sciences 43.01 Criminal Justice and Corrections 44.02 Community Organization and Advocacy 44.04 Public Administration 44.05 Public Policy Analysis 44.99 Public Administration and Social Service Professions, Other 45.01 Social Sciences, General 45.99 Social Sciences, Other 46.03 Electrical and Power Transmission Installers 46.04 Building/Construction Finishing, Management, and Inspection 47.01 Electrical/Electronics Maintenance and Repair Technology 51.22 Public Health 52.01 Business/Commerce, General 52.02 Business Administration, Management and Operations 52.12 Management Information Systems and Services 52.13 Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods 35

OCR for page 28
It is important to note that not all educational programs presented currently advance graduates towards SOM occupations. On one hand, educational programs such as Civil Engineering (14.08) and Systems Engineering (14.27) are common feeders into the existing SOM workforce. On the other hand, educational programs such as Computer Science (11.07), Computer Systems Analysis (11.05), Public Administration (44.04), and Management Information Systems and Services (52.12) are less common educational profiles of the existing SOM workforce but have strong potential to prepare the next generation of SOM professionals. Thus, graduates from these programs should be targeted in recruitment efforts. On an aggregate level (including all CIP four-digit series that are mapped to SOM-related occupations), the number of post-secondary degree completions experienced a growth of about 25% between 2002 and 2007. Most of this growth was between 2002 and 2004 (22%) and declined to only 3% growth between 2004 and 2007. Overall, the growth in graduates is healthy, especially considering the larger numbers returning to graduate school in the recent recession, and will likely meet SOM workforce demand in the coming years, provided that recruitment and development efforts are properly designed. Exhibit 14, on the following page, provides an overview of the growth. 36

OCR for page 28
Exhibit 14 Estimated Number of Graduates from SOM-Related Programs (All SOM-Related CIPs Combined) 20022007 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 6,966,874 7,052,821 6,864,858 6,881,772 7,000,000 6,139,183 6,000,000 5,622,305 5,000,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Degrees Completed (Bachelors and Masters) Using the SOC to CIP mapping, it is also possible to analyze the skill pipeline supply within specific educational fields related to SOM careers. In Exhibits 15 through 18, the results of our related analyses for key educational program areas are presented. Specifically, we provide detailed data for: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Programs Engineering Programs Engineering Technologies/Technicians Programs Architectural and Related Services Educational Programs Data for this analysis was generated using the NCES Data Analysis System (DAS).2 The timeframe of analysis includes the years 2002 through 2007. This timeframe was used based on the availability of the latest Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS)3 data. 2 The DAS is a software application that allows you to produce tables and to estimate covariance analyses from NCES data sets. There is a separate DAS for each data set, but all have a consistent interface and command structure. In the Tables mode, the DAS will create a table of estimates; corresponding standard errors are calculated by taking into account the complex sampling designs used in NCES surveys and weighted sample sizes for the estimates. 3 The IPEDS, established as the core postsecondary education data collection program for NCES, is a system of surveys designed to collect data from all primary providers of postsecondary education. IPEDS is a single, comprehensive system designed to encompass all institutions and educational organizations whose primary purpose is to provide postsecondary education. The IPEDS system is built around a series of interrelated surveys to collect institution-level data in such areas as enrollments, program completions, faculty, staff, finances, and academic libraries. 37

OCR for page 28
Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Programs. Exhibit 15 provides a summary of Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services educational programs. As shown in the exhibit, programs in Computer Science and Computer Systems Analysis experienced substantial growth between 2002 and 2007. The programs will likely be an important component of the SOM skills pipeline over the next decade as well and should be targeted in recruitment efforts. Conversely, several other programs have experienced a decline in the number of degree completions, such as Information Science/Studies, in the same time period. The decline indicates that recruitment programs targeted at students leaving these programs should be reevaluated and possibly redirected toward higher growth programs. Exhibit 15 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Educational Program Trends 20022007 CIP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Education Program Description Code Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads 11.01 Computer and Information Sciences, General 463,946 455,151 486,933 451,603 395,642 365,174 11.03 Data Processing 4,140 6,761 4,895 5,055 3,521 2,913 11.04 Information Science/Studies 134,898 164,944 145,316 128,592 126,509 110,530 11.05 Computer Systems Analysis 5,364 11,832 32,332 26,433 19,410 14,512 11.07 Computer Science 97,631 204,515 260,059 243,988 218,714 200,088 Computer Systems Networking and 0 32,739 43,521 39,985 35,808 28,771 11.09 Telecommunications Computer and Information Sciences and Support 37,138 35,654 34,717 29,763 27,223 24,511 11.99 Services, Other 38

OCR for page 28
Engineering Programs. As indicated in Exhibit 16, several programs in Engineering have experienced significant growth (>17%) between 2002 and 2007 including Computer Engineering and Mechanical Engineering (or between 2003 and 2007 in case of Construction Engineering and Operations Research). These programs will likely continue to produce top talent for SOM jobs over the next decade as well. Exhibit 16 Engineering Educational Program Trends 20022007 CIP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Education Program Description Code Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads 14.01 Engineering, General 41,013 41,801 48,276 49,052 50,501 44,348 14.04 Architectural Engineering 11,571 14,581 14,710 16,655 17,414 17,726 14.08 Civil Engineering 207,365 222,071 237,029 248,942 265,981 270,665 14.09 Computer Engineering, General 139,500 182,917 195,394 193,281 163,077 155,181 Electrical, Electronics and 14.10 361,441 398,427 472,764 466,878 446,256 424,149 Communications Engineering 14.11 Engineering Mechanics 4,992 4,285 4,900 3,341 4,349 3,404 14.19 Mechanical Engineering 299,659 323,594 364,507 383,678 404,830 416,749 14.27 Systems Engineering 19,243 22,441 24,974 27,494 35,695 34,214 14.33 Construction Engineering 0 3,356 6,397 5,810 6,301 6,462 14.37 Operations Research 0 9,000 13,500 13,463 14,721 14,644 14.38 Surveying Engineering 0 0 300 621 519 806 14.99 Engineering, Other 34,402 35,543 31,116 35,297 40,502 36,636 39

OCR for page 28
Engineering Technologies/Technicians Programs. As shown in Exhibit 17, Civil Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Environmental Control Technologies/Technicians, and Construction Engineering Technologies programs in Engineering have experienced significant growth (>29%) between 2002 and 2007 (or between 2003 and 2007 in the case of Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians). Over the next decade, these programs will almost certainly continue to be important components of the SOM skills pipeline and should be targeted in DOT recruitment campaigns. Exhibit 17 Engineering Technologies/Technicians Program Trends 20022007 CIP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Education Program Description Code Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads 15.01 Architectural Engineering 11,091 9,310 7,291 6,836 7,179 9,207 Technologies/Technicians 15.02 Civil Engineering Technologies/Technicians 4,492 4,274 6,090 7,714 6,314 7,579 15.03 Electrical Engineering 35,991 31,291 39,145 35,302 35,669 36,453 Technologies/Technicians 15.05 Environmental Control 2,833 3,561 4,048 4,434 3,518 3,648 Technologies/Technicians 15.07 Quality Control and Safety 5,888 6,295 6,074 6,489 6,216 6,588 Technologies/Technicians 15.10 Construction Engineering Technologies 22,734 25,244 25,379 26,550 30,097 32,582 15.11 Engineering-Related Technologies 10,938 3,014 2,673 2,996 3,194 3,653 15.12 Computer Engineering 0 7,188 11,931 14,623 14,010 14,422 Technologies/Technicians 15.13 Drafting/Design Engineering 0 4,029 4,518 5,202 4,418 4,343 Technologies/Technicians 40