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emphasize the importance of SOM to senior executives. They indicated this would help to
achieve greater buy-in while fostering a culture that understands and is capable of implementing
new SOM technologies.
3.5 PRINCIPAL POOLS OF POTENTIAL WORKERS TO MEET FORECASTED
SOM NEEDS
In this section, principal pools of potential workers who may be available to meet forecast needs
for SOM staff are identified. Considering demographic and economic trends, estimates of the
likely numbers of people that might be attracted to SOM positions were developed. To conduct
this analysis, our team assessed two essential components of the skills pipeline framework:
Renewal Systems: This component represents opportunities to recruit new talent to the
SOM field through the retraining of workers employed in related transportation
occupations as well as the retraining of workers migrating from downsizing industries.
Advancement Systems: This component of the skills pipeline comprises the educational
system. It represents opportunities to attract new talent to the SOM field from four-year
undergraduate and graduate programs. Additionally, post-secondary education provided
by community and technical colleges is included.
Each of these systems and their related analyses are described in detail below.
Renewal Systems--Related Occupations
There are many occupations directly related to SOM jobs that exist in other industries. The
related jobs require core knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) that are similar to SOM jobs.
Thus, people who hold these related jobs represent potential new, relatively qualified applicants
for SOM positions. To establish related occupations and to conduct the renewal analyses, we
identified occupations that are similar in nature to traditional SOM occupations using standard
DOL occupational codes (i.e., SOCs). To begin, we started with the core list of SOC codes used
to conduct the SOM historical and forecasted staffing estimates (see Exhibit 6 for core SOC list)
and then added SOCs determined to require the same or similar KSAs. The `related' and `core'
SOC codes were then combined into one `expanded' list of SOC codes.
Specifically, the process of SOC association was based on assessing the KSA composition of
core SOM occupations. For each core SOM occupation, our team identified similar occupations
using the DOL occupational data. For example, a Traffic technician is a core SOM occupation.
To conduct SOC association, we deconstructed Traffic technicians to examine its core
knowledge, skills, and abilities. Next, using DOL data we found similar, linked occupations.
Each linked occupation identified included KSAs associated with the original elements identified
for Traffic technicians. By doing this, we were able to find occupations such as Emergency
management specialists that require a KSA composition similar to the original SOM occupation.
Once the initial expanded list was created, our internal transportation subject matter experts
(SMEs) and occupational experts reviewed the expanded list of SOM occupations. The process
of reviewing allowed us to eliminate certain SOCs that appeared to be related through KSAs but
did not qualify on the basis of work activities performed at DOTs. Finally, we had an expanded
list of SOCs that could potentially assist in creating the pipeline for SOM occupations.
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The final expanded list is presented in Exhibit 10. This list was used to conduct analyses of the
SOM renewal system.
Exhibit 10
Expanded List of SOC Codes Based on KSA Association
SOC
Code Description Core Expanded
11-1011 Chief executives
11-1021 General and operations managers
11-3011 Administrative services managers
11-3021 Computer and information systems managers
11-3071 Transportation, storage, and distribution managers
11-9021 Construction managers
11-9041 Engineering managers
13-1051 Cost estimators
13-1061 Emergency management specialists
15-1011 Computer and information scientists, research
15-1081 Network systems and data communications analysts
15-1099 Computer specialists, all other
15-2031 Operations research analysts
17-1012 Landscape architects
17-1022 Surveyors
17-2051 Civil engineers
17-2071 Electrical engineers
17-2072 Electronics engineers, except computer
17-3011 Architectural and civil drafters
17-3022 Civil engineering technicians
17-3023 Electrical and electronic engineering technicians
17-3029 Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other
29-9011 Occupational health and safety specialists
33-3051 Police and sheriff's patrol officers
43-2099 Communications equipment operators, all other
43-5031 Police, fire, and ambulance dispatchers
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and
47-1011
extraction workers
47-2111 Electricians
47-4011 Construction and building inspectors
47-4051 Highway maintenance workers
Electrical and electronics installers and repairers,
49-2093
transportation equipment
49-9042 Maintenance and repair workers, general
49-9097 Signal and track switch repairers
53-6041 Traffic technicians
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After finalizing the expanded list of SOC codes associated with the SOM field, our team
generated occupational reports to investigate the occupational growth/decline over the next 10
years (2010 to 2020). The results of the national analysis are presented below in Exhibit 11. The
results of the region- and state-level analyses are provided in Appendix C, NCHRP Web-Only
Document 182.
Exhibit 11
National--Forecasted Renewal Systems--Related Occupations Summary
2010, 2015, and 2020
%
Change Change
SOC DOL Standard # of 2010 # of 2015 # of 2020 (2010- (2010- Education
Code Occupation Title Jobs Jobs Jobs 2020) 2020) Level
Network systems and
Bachelor's
15-1081 data communications 356,088 432,635 500,975 144,887 41%
degree
analysts
Work
13-1051 Cost estimators 207,429 239,169 260,529 53,100 26% experience in a
related field
Operations research
15-2031 63,446 71,992 78,281 14,835 23% Master's degree
analysts
Bachelor's
17-2051 Civil engineers 302,371 343,268 368,168 65,797 22%
degree
Emergency Work
13-1061 management 16,823 18,993 20,334 3,511 21% experience in a
specialists related field
Moderate-term
Signal and track
49-9097 34,549 39,286 41,398 6,849 20% on-the-job
switch repairers
training
Degree plus
11-1011 Chief executives 1,229,756 1,387,282 1,457,653 227,897 19% work
experience
Construction Bachelor's
11-9021 704,688 803,582 842,026 137,338 19%
managers degree
Computer and
Doctoral
15-1011 information 66,122 73,892 78,970 12,848 19%
degree
scientists, research
First-line
supervisors/managers Work
47-1011 of construction trades 976,603 1,110,863 1,164,824 188,221 19% experience in a
and extraction related field
workers
Computer and Degree plus
11-3021 information systems 306,710 335,784 357,383 50,673 17% work
managers experience
Civil engineering Associate's
17-3022 82,333 91,627 96,525 14,192 17%
technicians degree
30
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Exhibit 11 (Continued)
National--Forecasted Renewal Systems--Related Occupations Summary
2010, 2015, and 2020
%
Change Change
SOC DOL Standard # of 2010 # of 2015 # of 2020 (2010- (2010- Education
Code Occupation Title Jobs Jobs Jobs 2020) 2020) Level
Work
Construction and
47-4011 120,623 134,661 141,632 21,009 17% experience in a
building inspectors
related field
Police, fire, and Moderate-term
43-5031 ambulance 98,005 107,604 113,239 15,234 16% on-the-job
dispatchers training
Bachelor's
17-1012 Landscape architects 57,881 63,972 66,412 8,531 15%
degree
Bachelor's
17-1022 Surveyors 52,479 58,083 60,105 7,626 15%
degree
Computer specialists, Associate's
15-1099 237,783 256,543 268,962 31,179 13%
all other degree
Long-term on-
47-2111 Electricians 664,009 726,463 752,438 88,429 13%
the-job training
Degree plus
Administrative
11-3011 250,736 270,476 281,696 30,960 12% work
services managers
experience
Maintenance and Moderate-term
49-9042 repair workers, 1,355,676 1,450,082 1,513,467 157,791 12% on-the-job
general training
Occupational health Bachelor's
29-9011 52,818 56,449 58,526 5,708 11%
and safety specialists degree
Postsecondary
Architectural and
17-3011 106,753 116,123 117,399 10,646 10% vocational
civil drafters
award
Degree plus
Engineering
11-9041 177,569 183,977 189,743 12,174 7% work
managers
experience
Police and sheriff's Long-term on-
33-3051 632,770 667,476 678,576 45,806 7%
patrol officers the-job training
Engineering
Associate's
17-3029 technicians, except 70,019 72,173 74,006 3,987 6%
degree
drafters, all other
Short-term on-
53-6041 Traffic technicians 6,893 7,230 7,285 392 6%
the-job training
Moderate-term
Highway
47-4051 140,876 146,743 147,888 7,012 5% on-the-job
maintenance workers
training
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Exhibit 11 (Continued)
National--Forecasted Renewal Systems--Related Occupations Summary
2010, 2015, and 2020
%
Change Change
SOC DOL Standard # of 2010 # of 2015 # of 2020 (2010- (2010- Education
Code Occupation Title Jobs Jobs Jobs 2020) 2020) Level
Electrical and
electronics installers Postsecondary
49-2093 and repairers, 13,612 13,969 14,149 537 4% vocational
transportation award
equipment
Degree plus
General and
11-1021 1,827,263 1,889,851 1,880,297 53,034 3% work
operations managers
experience
Bachelor's
17-2071 Electrical engineers 152,126 154,331 155,772 3,646 2%
degree
Electronics
Bachelor's
17-2072 engineers, except 138,246 137,982 139,407 1,161 1%
degree
computer
Transportation,
Work
storage, and
11-3071 101,736 103,425 101,644 (92)* 0% experience in a
distribution
related field
managers
Electrical and
electronic Associate's
17-3023 151,788 150,130 149,249 (2,539) (2%)
engineering degree
technicians
Communications
Short-term on-
43-2099 equipment operators, 2,748 2,624 2,422 (326) (12%)
the-job training
all other
*
Change and % Change numbers that appear in parentheses and in red indicate negative change.
Results of the SOM-related occupations renewal system through the expanded list of SOC codes
are encouraging. The data suggest that related occupations will also be experiencing rapid job
growth over the next 5 to 10 years, which indicates that the potential pool of applicants that
might transfer or retrain into an SOM job from a related industry is increasing. These related
occupations include Cost estimators, Operations research analysts, Emergency management
specialists, Construction managers, First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and
extraction workers, Construction and building inspectors, and Police, fire, and ambulance
dispatchers. Of course, the data also suggest that competition for premium talent may also
increase as related industries increasingly desire the skills necessary in SOM fields.
Renewal System Findings--Shrinking Industry Sectors
Potential pools of new workers also exist within related industries that are expected to experience
downsizing over the next 5 to 10 years. Many employees in these sectors will likely be seeking
new job opportunities as their field shrinks. In cases where the migrating employees possess
KSAs similar to those needed in SOM, they can be retrained to meet SOM demand at DOTs.
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In this section, industry sectors that are forecasted to shrink between 2010 and 2020 are
identified. Results are presented at the national and regional levels. For each, a bubble chart
presents the size and relative growth/shrinkage of prominent industry sectors in terms of
occupational growth/decline percentages between 2010 and 2020. The bubble chart is followed
by a tabular representation of the same information with 2010 and 2020 occupational numbers.
Exhibit 12 provides the national industry growth data. The exhibits that provide the regional
data are included in Appendix D, NCHRP Web-Only Document 182.
Exhibit 12
National--Industry Size and Growth Estimates
20102020
% Current
Description 2010 Jobs 2020 Jobs Growth Growth EPW*
Agriculture, natural resources, and mining 4,531,569 4,553,584 22,015 0% $44,088
Construction 9,443,666 11,248,682 1,805,016 19% $54,357
Education and health services 22,987,292 28,224,915 5,237,623 23% $47,197
Financial activities 16,649,492 20,691,874 4,042,382 24% $51,643
Government 23,747,888 25,265,528 1,517,640 6% $63,216
Information 3,296,015 3,553,998 257,983 8% $76,101
Leisure and hospitality 15,582,276 17,205,411 1,623,135 10% $21,736
Manufacturing 12,518,401 11,739,347 -779,054 -6% $67,354
Other services 9,187,746 10,242,448 1,054,702 11% $28,799
Professional and business services 24,187,428 29,925,136 5,737,708 24% $56,755
Trade, transportation, and utilities 30,979,855 32,770,376 1,790,521 6% $44,468
*
EPW=Earnings Per Worker
Source: EMSI Complete Employment--2nd Quarter 2010.
33
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In reviewing the industry size and growth estimate data, it is clear that opportunities exist for the
retraining of workers from downsizing industries. For example, the Manufacturing; Agriculture,
natural resources, and mining; and Government sectors are forecasted to experience shrinkage or
minimal growth over the next 10 years. The Manufacturing sector alone is projected to
experience a decrease of about 779,000 jobs nationwide while the Agriculture, natural
resources, and mining industry is estimated to lose more that 46,000 jobs in the Midwest and
almost 20,000 jobs in the South. This indicates that migrating workers from these industries
could be prime candidates for targeted SOM recruitment and development programs, if training
is provided.
Advancement Systems
As described, the SOM advancement system is the portion of the skills pipeline that comprises
the educational system. It represents opportunities to attract new talent to the SOM field from
post-secondary programs. Additionally, it represents post-secondary education provided by
community and technical colleges.
To more fully understand SOM skill `supply,' a detailed analysis of the SOM advancement
system was conducted. To begin, we utilized the National Center for Education Statistics
(NCES) crosswalk between DOL SOC codes and Department of Education (DOE) Classification
of Instructional Programs (CIP) codes. The crosswalk allowed our team to derive a mapping of
the expanded SOC list to existing educational programs across the United States (see Exhibit 6).
This mapping exercise was undertaken to establish the link between SOM-related occupations
and existing programs of study that render young professionals with post-secondary degrees in
relevant educational fields. The resultant list of CIP codes is presented in Exhibit 13.
Exhibit 13
CIP Codes--Department of Education (DOE) Standard Educational Programs
Related to SOM Occupations
CIP Code Standard Education Program Description
04.02 Architecture
04.03 City/Urban, Community and Regional Planning
04.04 Environmental Design
04.06 Landscape Architecture
04.09 Architectural Technology/Technician
11.01 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.03 Data Processing
11.04 Information Science/Studies
11.05 Computer Systems Analysis
11.07 Computer Science
11.09 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.99 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
14.01 Engineering, General
14.04 Architectural Engineering
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Exhibit 13 (Continued)
CIP Codes--DOE Standard Educational Programs
Related to SOM Occupations
CIP Code Standard Education Program Description
14.08 Civil Engineering
14.09 Computer Engineering, General
14.10 Electrical, Electronics, and Communications Engineering
14.11 Engineering Mechanics
14.19 Mechanical Engineering
14.27 Systems Engineering
14.33 Construction Engineering
14.37 Operations Research
14.38 Surveying Engineering
14.99 Engineering, Other
15.01 Architectural Engineering Technologies/Technicians
15.02 Civil Engineering Technologies/Technicians
15.03 Electrical Engineering Technologies/Technicians
15.05 Environmental Control Technologies/Technicians
15.07 Quality Control and Safety Technologies/Technicians
15.10 Construction Engineering Technologies
15.11 Engineering-Related Technologies
15.12 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians
15.13 Drafting/Design Engineering Technologies/Technicians
30.17 Behavioral Sciences
43.01 Criminal Justice and Corrections
44.02 Community Organization and Advocacy
44.04 Public Administration
44.05 Public Policy Analysis
44.99 Public Administration and Social Service Professions, Other
45.01 Social Sciences, General
45.99 Social Sciences, Other
46.03 Electrical and Power Transmission Installers
46.04 Building/Construction Finishing, Management, and Inspection
47.01 Electrical/Electronics Maintenance and Repair Technology
51.22 Public Health
52.01 Business/Commerce, General
52.02 Business Administration, Management and Operations
52.12 Management Information Systems and Services
52.13 Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods
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It is important to note that not all educational programs presented currently advance graduates
towards SOM occupations. On one hand, educational programs such as Civil Engineering
(14.08) and Systems Engineering (14.27) are common feeders into the existing SOM workforce.
On the other hand, educational programs such as Computer Science (11.07), Computer Systems
Analysis (11.05), Public Administration (44.04), and Management Information Systems and
Services (52.12) are less common educational profiles of the existing SOM workforce but have
strong potential to prepare the next generation of SOM professionals. Thus, graduates from these
programs should be targeted in recruitment efforts.
On an aggregate level (including all CIP four-digit series that are mapped to SOM-related
occupations), the number of post-secondary degree completions experienced a growth of about
25% between 2002 and 2007. Most of this growth was between 2002 and 2004 (22%) and
declined to only 3% growth between 2004 and 2007. Overall, the growth in graduates is healthy,
especially considering the larger numbers returning to graduate school in the recent recession,
and will likely meet SOM workforce demand in the coming years, provided that recruitment and
development efforts are properly designed. Exhibit 14, on the following page, provides an
overview of the growth.
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Exhibit 14
Estimated Number of Graduates from SOM-Related Programs
(All SOM-Related CIPs Combined)
20022007
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
6,966,874 7,052,821
6,864,858 6,881,772
7,000,000
6,139,183
6,000,000 5,622,305
5,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Total Degrees Completed (Bachelors and Masters)
Using the SOC to CIP mapping, it is also possible to analyze the skill pipeline supply within
specific educational fields related to SOM careers. In Exhibits 15 through 18, the results of our
related analyses for key educational program areas are presented. Specifically, we provide
detailed data for:
Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Programs
Engineering Programs
Engineering Technologies/Technicians Programs
Architectural and Related Services Educational Programs
Data for this analysis was generated using the NCES Data Analysis System (DAS).2 The
timeframe of analysis includes the years 2002 through 2007. This timeframe was used based on
the availability of the latest Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS)3 data.
2
The DAS is a software application that allows you to produce tables and to estimate covariance analyses from
NCES data sets. There is a separate DAS for each data set, but all have a consistent interface and command
structure. In the Tables mode, the DAS will create a table of estimates; corresponding standard errors are calculated
by taking into account the complex sampling designs used in NCES surveys and weighted sample sizes for the
estimates.
3
The IPEDS, established as the core postsecondary education data collection program for NCES, is a system of
surveys designed to collect data from all primary providers of postsecondary education. IPEDS is a single,
comprehensive system designed to encompass all institutions and educational organizations whose primary purpose
is to provide postsecondary education. The IPEDS system is built around a series of interrelated surveys to collect
institution-level data in such areas as enrollments, program completions, faculty, staff, finances, and academic
libraries.
37
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Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Programs. Exhibit 15 provides a
summary of Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services educational programs. As
shown in the exhibit, programs in Computer Science and Computer Systems Analysis
experienced substantial growth between 2002 and 2007. The programs will likely be an
important component of the SOM skills pipeline over the next decade as well and should be
targeted in recruitment efforts. Conversely, several other programs have experienced a decline in
the number of degree completions, such as Information Science/Studies, in the same time period.
The decline indicates that recruitment programs targeted at students leaving these programs
should be reevaluated and possibly redirected toward higher growth programs.
Exhibit 15
Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Educational Program Trends
20022007
CIP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Education Program Description
Code Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads
11.01 Computer and Information Sciences, General 463,946 455,151 486,933 451,603 395,642 365,174
11.03 Data Processing 4,140 6,761 4,895 5,055 3,521 2,913
11.04 Information Science/Studies 134,898 164,944 145,316 128,592 126,509 110,530
11.05 Computer Systems Analysis 5,364 11,832 32,332 26,433 19,410 14,512
11.07 Computer Science 97,631 204,515 260,059 243,988 218,714 200,088
Computer Systems Networking and
0 32,739 43,521 39,985 35,808 28,771
11.09 Telecommunications
Computer and Information Sciences and Support
37,138 35,654 34,717 29,763 27,223 24,511
11.99 Services, Other
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Engineering Programs. As indicated in Exhibit 16, several programs in Engineering have
experienced significant growth (>17%) between 2002 and 2007 including Computer Engineering and
Mechanical Engineering (or between 2003 and 2007 in case of Construction Engineering and
Operations Research). These programs will likely continue to produce top talent for SOM jobs over
the next decade as well.
Exhibit 16
Engineering Educational Program Trends
20022007
CIP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Education Program Description
Code Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads
14.01 Engineering, General 41,013 41,801 48,276 49,052 50,501 44,348
14.04 Architectural Engineering 11,571 14,581 14,710 16,655 17,414 17,726
14.08 Civil Engineering 207,365 222,071 237,029 248,942 265,981 270,665
14.09 Computer Engineering, General 139,500 182,917 195,394 193,281 163,077 155,181
Electrical, Electronics and
14.10 361,441 398,427 472,764 466,878 446,256 424,149
Communications Engineering
14.11 Engineering Mechanics 4,992 4,285 4,900 3,341 4,349 3,404
14.19 Mechanical Engineering 299,659 323,594 364,507 383,678 404,830 416,749
14.27 Systems Engineering 19,243 22,441 24,974 27,494 35,695 34,214
14.33 Construction Engineering 0 3,356 6,397 5,810 6,301 6,462
14.37 Operations Research 0 9,000 13,500 13,463 14,721 14,644
14.38 Surveying Engineering 0 0 300 621 519 806
14.99 Engineering, Other 34,402 35,543 31,116 35,297 40,502 36,636
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Engineering Technologies/Technicians Programs. As shown in Exhibit 17, Civil Engineering
Technologies/Technicians, Environmental Control Technologies/Technicians, and Construction
Engineering Technologies programs in Engineering have experienced significant growth (>29%)
between 2002 and 2007 (or between 2003 and 2007 in the case of Computer Engineering
Technologies/Technicians). Over the next decade, these programs will almost certainly continue to
be important components of the SOM skills pipeline and should be targeted in DOT recruitment
campaigns.
Exhibit 17
Engineering Technologies/Technicians Program Trends
20022007
CIP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Education Program Description
Code Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads Grads
15.01 Architectural Engineering
11,091 9,310 7,291 6,836 7,179 9,207
Technologies/Technicians
15.02 Civil Engineering Technologies/Technicians 4,492 4,274 6,090 7,714 6,314 7,579
15.03 Electrical Engineering
35,991 31,291 39,145 35,302 35,669 36,453
Technologies/Technicians
15.05 Environmental Control
2,833 3,561 4,048 4,434 3,518 3,648
Technologies/Technicians
15.07 Quality Control and Safety
5,888 6,295 6,074 6,489 6,216 6,588
Technologies/Technicians
15.10 Construction Engineering Technologies 22,734 25,244 25,379 26,550 30,097 32,582
15.11 Engineering-Related Technologies 10,938 3,014 2,673 2,996 3,194 3,653
15.12 Computer Engineering
0 7,188 11,931 14,623 14,010 14,422
Technologies/Technicians
15.13 Drafting/Design Engineering
0 4,029 4,518 5,202 4,418 4,343
Technologies/Technicians
40
