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CHALLENGES FOR THE 1990s FOR ARMS CONTROL AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Committee on International Security and Alms Condom National Academy of Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1989

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Goveming Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Aeademy of Seiences, the National Acad~ny of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Aeademy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Seiences is a pnvate, nonprofit, sdf-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the fustheranee of science and technology and to then use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Aeademy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Aeademy of Seiences. The National Aeademy of Engineenng was established in 1964, under the chaster of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Aeademy of Seienees the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Aeademy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the govemment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The work that provided the basis for this volume was supported by funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the W. Alton Jones Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 89-63431 International Standard Book Number ~309-04084~1 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 S008 Printed in the United States of America

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Seminar Participants R. JAMES Woos,* Esq., Shea & Gardner, Under Secretary of the Navy, 1977-1979 ROALD SAGDEEV,* Director Emeritus, Institute of Space Research. Academy of Sciences of the USSR BRIG. GENERAL ROLAND LAJOE,* Director, U.S. On-Site Inspection Agency MArrHEw MESELSON,* Professor of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Harvard University COMMI l-l L;E ON INS ERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL WOLFGANG K. H. PANOFSKY,* (Chairman), Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University ROBERT AXELROD, Arthur W. Bromage Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Michigan PAUL M. DOTY,* Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, and Director Emeritus, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University A~ExANDER H. Flax, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses; and Home Secretary, National Academy of Engineering RICHARD L. GARWIN, Science Adviser to the Director of Research, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation MARVIN L. Go~DsERGER,* Director, Institute for Advanced Study DAVID C. JONES, General (USAF, Ret.), Private Consultant SPURGEON M. KEENY, Ir.,* President, Arms Control Association CATHERINE M. KEENER, Director, Center for International Security Studies, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland JOSHUA LEDERBERG, President, RockefelRer University CLAIRE MAX, Associate Director, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory MICHAEL MAY, Director Emeritus, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory *Seminar speaker. ~

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MARSHAL ROSENBLUTH, Department of Physics, University of California at San Diego MALVIN RUDERMAN, Pupin Physics Laboratories, Columbia University JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, Director, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution CHARLES H. TowNEs, Department of Physics, University of California at Berkeley ROBERT WERTHEM, Rear A~niral (USN, Ret.), Private Consultant JEROME B. WESNER, Consultant to Chairman; Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WIGWAM GORDON, Ex Officio, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences VICTOR RABINOWITCH, Executive Director, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council LYNN RUSTEN, Director, Committee on International Security and Arms Control LA'FAYE LEWIS, Senior Secretary, Committee on International Security and Arms Control IV

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Foreword Quince its creation in 1863, the Na- tional Academy of Sciences has undertaken many studies and activities relating to matters of national security, and currently several committees of the National Research Council advise branches of the military on questions of scientific research. Other Academy committees have studied such topics as nuclear winter and the contribution of behavioral and social sciences to the prevention of nuclear war. The Committee on Intemational Security and Arms Control (CISAC) reflects the Academy's deep interest in international security and the potential of arms control to reduce the threat of nuclear and conventional war. Its members have been deeply involved in many aspects of military technology and arms control. They have advised several presidents and served in senior governmental posts; they have been involved with impor- tant arms control negotiations; they have thought long and hard about national security issues. CISAC has pursued a number of activities in response to its broad charter. Twice each year it meets with its counterparts from the Soviet Academy of Sciences to explore problems of international security and arms control. In response to the widely expressed interest of Academy

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Vl FOREWORD members in learning more about issues and opportunities in arms control, it has convened a number of meetings and sessions on alms control specifically for them. In the spring of 1984 CISAC conducted a major tutorial for over 200 Academy members. The background materials for that tutorial resulted in the book Nuclear Arms Control: Background and Issues, published in 1985. CISAC conducted a seminar on strategic defense in 1985 and cosponsored one the following year on crisis man- agement that resulted in the short publication Crisis Management in the Nuclear age. In the spring of 1987 CISAC presented a seminar for the Academy audience that explored the implications of the proposals for very deep cuts in strategic nuclear arsenals that had been discussed by President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev at the Reykjavik summit in 1986. That seminar was captured in a small publication entitled Reykjavik and Be- yond: Deep Reductions in Strategic Nuclear Arsenals and the Future Direction of Arms Control. In the spring of 1989 CISAC held its fifth seminar for the membership of the National Academy of Sciences on chaldenges for the 199Os for arms control and international security. The initial rationale for these semi- narsthat the scientific community generally and the National Academy of Sciences specifically are an important resource to give independent course! to the government and the public on vital issues that have a major scientific componentremains as valid today as it has ever been. Issues of international security and arms control are prominent in this category, and so I am pleased to present this next in what has become a continuing series of Academy publications of the proceedings of this important series of CISAC-sponsored seminars. The committee hopes to help inform a wider Academy and public audience through these publications. I would like to express my great appreciation to the chairman, mem- bers, and staff of CISAC, some of whom contributed to this volume and all of whom dedicate much time and effort to the activities of the commit- tee. I believe the committee continues to leam a great deal in the course of its work, and I hope that others will judge that work, including this volume, to be useful in their own effort to understand the contribution of arms control to international security. Frank Press, President National Academy of Sciences

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Contents 1. Challenges for International Security in the l990s R. James Woolsey 1 Introductory Remarks: From INF to New Agreements Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky 13 3. Soviet "New Thinking" About International Security Roald Ragweed 28 4. The INF Treaty: A Status Report on INF Inspections Roland Lajoie 36 ~ V11

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~ V111 CONTENTS 5. Whither Conventional Arms Control? Paul Doty 47 6. Prospects for a Chemical Weapons Disarmament Treaty Matthew Meselson 57 7. Vitality of He Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Regime Spurgeon M. Keeny, Jr. 64 8. Summary Remarks Marvin 1~. Goldberger 72