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CHALLENGES
FOR THE 1990s
FOR ARMS
CONTROL AND
INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY
Committee on International Security and Alms Condom
National Academy of Sciences
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1989
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Goveming Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Aeademy of Seiences, the National
Acad~ny of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report
were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report
Review Committee consisting of members of the National Aeademy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Seiences is a pnvate, nonprofit, sdf-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the fustheranee of science and technology and to then
use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Aeademy has
a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is
president of the National Aeademy of Seiences.
The National Aeademy of Engineenng was established in 1964, under the chaster of the National Academy of
Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the
selection of its members, sharing with the National Aeademy of Seienees the responsibility for advising the federal
government. The National Aeademy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national
needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M.
White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services
of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the
public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional
charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care,
research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the
federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has
become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the govemment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities.
The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr.
Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
The work that provided the basis for this volume was supported by funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New
York, the W. Alton Jones Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the Andrew W.
Mellon Foundation.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 89-63431
International Standard Book Number ~309-04084~1
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20418
S008
Printed in the United States of America
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Seminar Participants
R. JAMES Woos,* Esq., Shea & Gardner, Under Secretary of the
Navy, 1977-1979
ROALD SAGDEEV,* Director Emeritus, Institute of Space Research.
Academy of Sciences of the USSR
BRIG. GENERAL ROLAND LAJOE,* Director, U.S. On-Site Inspection
Agency
MArrHEw MESELSON,* Professor of Biochemistry and Molecular
Biology, Harvard University
COMMI l-l L;E ON INS ERNATIONAL SECURITY AND
ARMS CONTROL
WOLFGANG K. H. PANOFSKY,* (Chairman), Director Emeritus, Stanford
Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University
ROBERT AXELROD, Arthur W. Bromage Professor of Political Science and
Public Policy, University of Michigan
PAUL M. DOTY,* Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology,
and Director Emeritus, Center for Science and International Affairs,
Harvard University
A~ExANDER H. Flax, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses;
and Home Secretary, National Academy of Engineering
RICHARD L. GARWIN, Science Adviser to the Director of Research,
Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation
MARVIN L. Go~DsERGER,* Director, Institute for Advanced Study
DAVID C. JONES, General (USAF, Ret.), Private Consultant
SPURGEON M. KEENY, Ir.,* President, Arms Control Association
CATHERINE M. KEENER, Director, Center for International Security
Studies, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland
JOSHUA LEDERBERG, President, RockefelRer University
CLAIRE MAX, Associate Director, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary
Physics, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
MICHAEL MAY, Director Emeritus, Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory
*Seminar speaker.
~
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MARSHAL ROSENBLUTH, Department of Physics, University of California
at San Diego
MALVIN RUDERMAN, Pupin Physics Laboratories, Columbia University
JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, Director, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The
Brookings Institution
CHARLES H. TowNEs, Department of Physics, University of California at
Berkeley
ROBERT WERTHEM, Rear A~niral (USN, Ret.), Private Consultant
JEROME B. WESNER, Consultant to Chairman; Institute Professor,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
WIGWAM GORDON, Ex Officio, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of
Sciences
VICTOR RABINOWITCH, Executive Director, Office of International
Affairs, National Research Council
LYNN RUSTEN, Director, Committee on International Security and Arms
Control
LA'FAYE LEWIS, Senior Secretary, Committee on International Security
and Arms Control
IV
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Foreword
Quince its creation in 1863, the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences has undertaken many studies and activities
relating to matters of national security, and currently several committees
of the National Research Council advise branches of the military on
questions of scientific research. Other Academy committees have studied
such topics as nuclear winter and the contribution of behavioral and social
sciences to the prevention of nuclear war.
The Committee on Intemational Security and Arms Control (CISAC)
reflects the Academy's deep interest in international security and the
potential of arms control to reduce the threat of nuclear and conventional
war. Its members have been deeply involved in many aspects of military
technology and arms control. They have advised several presidents and
served in senior governmental posts; they have been involved with impor-
tant arms control negotiations; they have thought long and hard about
national security issues.
CISAC has pursued a number of activities in response to its broad
charter. Twice each year it meets with its counterparts from the Soviet
Academy of Sciences to explore problems of international security and
arms control. In response to the widely expressed interest of Academy
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Vl
FOREWORD
members in learning more about issues and opportunities in arms control,
it has convened a number of meetings and sessions on alms control
specifically for them. In the spring of 1984 CISAC conducted a major
tutorial for over 200 Academy members. The background materials for
that tutorial resulted in the book Nuclear Arms Control: Background and
Issues, published in 1985. CISAC conducted a seminar on strategic
defense in 1985 and cosponsored one the following year on crisis man-
agement that resulted in the short publication Crisis Management in the
Nuclear age.
In the spring of 1987 CISAC presented a seminar for the Academy
audience that explored the implications of the proposals for very deep cuts
in strategic nuclear arsenals that had been discussed by President Reagan
and General Secretary Gorbachev at the Reykjavik summit in 1986. That
seminar was captured in a small publication entitled Reykjavik and Be-
yond: Deep Reductions in Strategic Nuclear Arsenals and the Future
Direction of Arms Control.
In the spring of 1989 CISAC held its fifth seminar for the membership
of the National Academy of Sciences on chaldenges for the 199Os for arms
control and international security. The initial rationale for these semi-
narsthat the scientific community generally and the National Academy
of Sciences specifically are an important resource to give independent
course! to the government and the public on vital issues that have a major
scientific componentremains as valid today as it has ever been. Issues
of international security and arms control are prominent in this category,
and so I am pleased to present this next in what has become a continuing
series of Academy publications of the proceedings of this important series
of CISAC-sponsored seminars. The committee hopes to help inform a
wider Academy and public audience through these publications.
I would like to express my great appreciation to the chairman, mem-
bers, and staff of CISAC, some of whom contributed to this volume and
all of whom dedicate much time and effort to the activities of the commit-
tee. I believe the committee continues to leam a great deal in the course of
its work, and I hope that others will judge that work, including this
volume, to be useful in their own effort to understand the contribution of
arms control to international security.
Frank Press, President
National Academy of Sciences
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Contents
1.
Challenges for International Security in the l990s
R. James Woolsey
1
Introductory Remarks: From INF to New
Agreements
Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky
13
3. Soviet "New Thinking" About International Security
Roald Ragweed 28
4. The INF Treaty: A Status Report on INF
Inspections
Roland Lajoie
36
~
V11
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~
V111
CONTENTS
5. Whither Conventional Arms Control?
Paul Doty
47
6. Prospects for a Chemical Weapons Disarmament
Treaty
Matthew Meselson
57
7. Vitality of He Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Regime
Spurgeon M. Keeny, Jr. 64
8. Summary Remarks
Marvin 1~. Goldberger 72
