3.   The magnitude and extent of the events

4.   The places and times that the events occur

5.   Whether events arrive singly or in clusters

Exposures to the events:

6.   The populations, communities, and infrastructure affected

7.   The life-supporting systems affected (e.g., food, water, energy, health)

8.   The social and political systems affected

Susceptibilities of exposed systems to harm from events:

9.   The extent to which these systems in the affected communities and countries will suffer harm upon exposure

The likelihood of effective coping, response, and recovery:

10.   The capacity of exposed people and communities to cope

11.   The capacity and willingness of various social institutions to respond and support recovery of the affected systems

Security implications of ineffective reactions to disruption:

12.   The reactions of the affected populations and social institutions to the adequacy or inadequacy of response

13.   The ability of governments to cope with post-event reactions, and consequences for well-being on larger social and political systems

Because risks are so varied in kind and in their implications, it is useful to think in terms of a risk profile—the shape of the risk on all the above dimensions—as a basis for systematic analysis.

putting in place general purpose rapid response capabilities, or suppressing demonstrations by unhappy citizens). A vulnerability approach might also be applied to systems within countries, e.g., of the water supply in Pakistan or the food supply in China. The “stress testing” that we recommend in Chapter 6 mainly follows this approach.

A fourth approach emphasizes policy vulnerability analysis. Analysts would consider a specific existing or proposed policy, future states of the world in which that policy would fail to meet its goals, and the policy responses that would ameliorate these vulnerabilities. They would then organize scenarios to illuminate for policy makers the trade-offs among responses to maintain the viability of the policy. For instance, such an analysis might note that climate changes that go beyond certain thresholds would likely be sufficiently disruptive to the functioning of the government in Pakistan to significantly undermine the ability of current U.S. policy



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