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NOTICE: The project that ~ the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members arc drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
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Support for this project WAS provided by the following organizations and agencies: Air Force Office of
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Intemational Standard Book Number (}309-(~17~7
COVER: Flare, by Benoit B. Mandelbrot, IBM Fellow, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, and a Foreign
Associate of the National Academy of Sciences. Image courtesy of ACM Siggraph with permission of Professor
Mandelbrot
Shown is a framed fragment of a generalized Mandelbrot set-a set of numbers that produce strildngly beauti-
ful images of mathematical complexity that, as they are magnified, reveal yet more detailed, infinitely nonrepcat-
ing tendrils, whorls, and curlicues.
Like the Mandelbrot set, the U.S. computer vector when viewed from afar may seem relatively well defined;
upon closer contamination, however, the industry is revealed to consist of a myriad of complex and evolving inter-
dependencies, driven by technology and subject to the ever-changing constraints of the global marketplace.
Available from:
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COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD
JOSEPH F. TRAUB, Columbia University, Chairman
ALFRED V. AHO, AT&T Bell Laboratories
JOHN SEELY BROWN, Xerox Corporation
MICHAEL L. DERTOUZOS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SAMUEL H. FULLER, Digital Equipment Corporation
JAMES FREEMAN GILBERT, University of California at San Diego
WILLIAM A. GODDARD III, California Institute of Technology
JOHN L. HENNESSY, Stanford University
JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University
ROBERT E. KAHN, Corporation for National Research Initiatives
SIDNEY KARIN, San Diego Supercomputer Center
LEONARD KLEINROCK, University of California at Los Angeles
ROBERT LANGRIDGE, University of California at San Francisco
ABRAHAM PELED, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center
RAJ REDDY, Carnegie Mellon University
MARY SHAW, Carnegie Mellon University
WILLIAM J. SPENCER, Xerox Corporation
IVAN E. SUTHERLAND, Sutherland, Sproull & Associates
VICTOR VYSSOTSKY, Digital Equipment Corporation
IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER, IBM Corporation
MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Executive Director
DAMIAN M. SACCOCIO, Staff Officer
MARGARET A. KNEMEYER, Staff Associate
MARK BELLO, CSTB Consultant
PAMELA R. RODGERS, CSTB Consultant
DONNA F. ALLEN, Administrative Secretary
CATHERINE A. SPARKS, Secretary
. . .
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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES,
MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES
NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman
ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
B. CLARK BURCHFIEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GEORGE F. CARPER, Harvard University
RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California at Irvine
HERBERT D. DOAN, The Dow Chemical Company (retired)
PETER S. EAGLES ON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center
MARYE ANNE FOX, University of Texas
GERHART FREDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory
LAWRENCE W. FUNKHOUSER, Chevron Corporation (retired)
PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University
NEAL F. LANE, Rice University
CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California at Berkeley
RICHARD S. NICHOLSON, American Association for the
Advancement of Science
JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University
JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory
PHILIP A. PALMER, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company
FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University
DENIS J. PRAGER, MacArthur Foundation
DAVID M. RAUP, University of Colorado
ROY F. SCHWll~IERS, Superconducting Super Collider Laboratory
LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
KARL K. ll3REKIAN, Yale University
MYRON F. UMAN, Acting Executive Director
TV
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Preface
On May 23, 1989, the Computer Science and Technology Board sponsored a
colloquium in Washington, D.C., on the competitiveness of computer-related
industries. The colloquium attracted a standing-room-only group of invited
executives, government officials, academic analysts, and journalists. Participants
discussed the structure of computer-related industries, evolving patterns of com-
petition in global markets, and the roles of industry and government in making
the most of U.S. strengths in computer-related technologies and markets.
The colloquium was organized by a steering committee chaired by Samuel H.
Fuller, vice president of research at Digital Equipment Corporation. Other mem-
bers of the steering committee included Robert W. Lucky, executive director for
research in the communications sciences division of AT&T Bell Laboratories,
William J. Spencer, vice president of the corporate research group at Xerox
Corporation, and Irving Wladawsky-Berger, vice president of the data systems
division and general manager of the Kingston facility at IBM CoIporation.
This report is a distillation of the far-ranging colloquium discussions. It has
two goals. First, it strives to open a window into the richness of the U.S. com-
puter sector, a collection of interrelated industries that is by and large poorly
understood by those outside the computer field. Second, it seeks to illuminate
the range and depth of the challenges facing the computer sector. The report is
aimed, in particular, at policymakers, but it is also intended to be of interest to
leaders in and students of the computer sector.
Joseph F. Traub, Chairman
Computer Science and
Technology Board
v
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 OVERVIEW
2 HARDWARE
3 SOFTWARE
4 SERVICES AND SYSTEMS INTEGRATION
5 BUSINESS AND MARKETING
6 TURNING POINT
APPENDIXES
A Colloquium Program
B Colloquium Participants
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