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NOTICE: The project that ~ the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members arc drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institutc of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is & private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the chatter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a papally orgaruzation of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the feder- al government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the supenor achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institutc of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the culmination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institutc acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Sarnud O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering comrnuni- tics. The Council is administered jointly by both Academics and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project WAS provided by the following organizations and agencies: Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant No. N00014-87-J-1110), Apple Computer, Inc., Control Data Corporation, Cray Research, Inc., the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Grant No. N00014-87-J-1110), Digital Equipment Corporation, Hewlett Packard, IBM Corporation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant No. CDA-860535), the National Science Foundation (Grant No. CDA-860535), and the Office of Naval Research (Grant No. N00014-87-J-1110). Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89-63507 Intemational Standard Book Number (}309-(~17~7 COVER: Flare, by Benoit B. Mandelbrot, IBM Fellow, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, and a Foreign Associate of the National Academy of Sciences. Image courtesy of ACM Siggraph with permission of Professor Mandelbrot Shown is a framed fragment of a generalized Mandelbrot set-a set of numbers that produce strildngly beauti- ful images of mathematical complexity that, as they are magnified, reveal yet more detailed, infinitely nonrepcat- ing tendrils, whorls, and curlicues. Like the Mandelbrot set, the U.S. computer vector when viewed from afar may seem relatively well defined; upon closer contamination, however, the industry is revealed to consist of a myriad of complex and evolving inter- dependencies, driven by technology and subject to the ever-changing constraints of the global marketplace. Available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 S064 Printed in the United States of America

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COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD JOSEPH F. TRAUB, Columbia University, Chairman ALFRED V. AHO, AT&T Bell Laboratories JOHN SEELY BROWN, Xerox Corporation MICHAEL L. DERTOUZOS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SAMUEL H. FULLER, Digital Equipment Corporation JAMES FREEMAN GILBERT, University of California at San Diego WILLIAM A. GODDARD III, California Institute of Technology JOHN L. HENNESSY, Stanford University JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University ROBERT E. KAHN, Corporation for National Research Initiatives SIDNEY KARIN, San Diego Supercomputer Center LEONARD KLEINROCK, University of California at Los Angeles ROBERT LANGRIDGE, University of California at San Francisco ABRAHAM PELED, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center RAJ REDDY, Carnegie Mellon University MARY SHAW, Carnegie Mellon University WILLIAM J. SPENCER, Xerox Corporation IVAN E. SUTHERLAND, Sutherland, Sproull & Associates VICTOR VYSSOTSKY, Digital Equipment Corporation IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER, IBM Corporation MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Executive Director DAMIAN M. SACCOCIO, Staff Officer MARGARET A. KNEMEYER, Staff Associate MARK BELLO, CSTB Consultant PAMELA R. RODGERS, CSTB Consultant DONNA F. ALLEN, Administrative Secretary CATHERINE A. SPARKS, Secretary . . .

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution B. CLARK BURCHFIEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology GEORGE F. CARPER, Harvard University RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California at Irvine HERBERT D. DOAN, The Dow Chemical Company (retired) PETER S. EAGLES ON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center MARYE ANNE FOX, University of Texas GERHART FREDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory LAWRENCE W. FUNKHOUSER, Chevron Corporation (retired) PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University NEAL F. LANE, Rice University CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California at Berkeley RICHARD S. NICHOLSON, American Association for the Advancement of Science JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory PHILIP A. PALMER, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University DENIS J. PRAGER, MacArthur Foundation DAVID M. RAUP, University of Colorado ROY F. SCHWll~IERS, Superconducting Super Collider Laboratory LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign KARL K. ll3REKIAN, Yale University MYRON F. UMAN, Acting Executive Director TV

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Preface On May 23, 1989, the Computer Science and Technology Board sponsored a colloquium in Washington, D.C., on the competitiveness of computer-related industries. The colloquium attracted a standing-room-only group of invited executives, government officials, academic analysts, and journalists. Participants discussed the structure of computer-related industries, evolving patterns of com- petition in global markets, and the roles of industry and government in making the most of U.S. strengths in computer-related technologies and markets. The colloquium was organized by a steering committee chaired by Samuel H. Fuller, vice president of research at Digital Equipment Corporation. Other mem- bers of the steering committee included Robert W. Lucky, executive director for research in the communications sciences division of AT&T Bell Laboratories, William J. Spencer, vice president of the corporate research group at Xerox Corporation, and Irving Wladawsky-Berger, vice president of the data systems division and general manager of the Kingston facility at IBM CoIporation. This report is a distillation of the far-ranging colloquium discussions. It has two goals. First, it strives to open a window into the richness of the U.S. com- puter sector, a collection of interrelated industries that is by and large poorly understood by those outside the computer field. Second, it seeks to illuminate the range and depth of the challenges facing the computer sector. The report is aimed, in particular, at policymakers, but it is also intended to be of interest to leaders in and students of the computer sector. Joseph F. Traub, Chairman Computer Science and Technology Board v

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 OVERVIEW 2 HARDWARE 3 SOFTWARE 4 SERVICES AND SYSTEMS INTEGRATION 5 BUSINESS AND MARKETING 6 TURNING POINT APPENDIXES A Colloquium Program B Colloquium Participants ............... 1 . . vzz 18 30 40 50 64 73 75

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