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Soviet-American Dialogue in the Social Sciences Research Workshops on Interdependence Among Nations Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Science to the Prevention of Nuclear War Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C. 1990

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NationalAcademy Press . 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. . Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating- society of dis- - ---r ~ ~ ~ r-- r--~--..~ A_. __ tinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 90-61259 International Standard Book Number 0-309~4289-5 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 S145 Printed in the United States of America

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COMMITTEE ON CONTRIBUTIONS OF BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE TO THE PREVENTION OF NUCLEAR WAR HERBERT ~ SIMON, Cochair, Carnegie-Mellon University CHARLES TILLY, Cochair, Center for Studies of Social Change, New School for Social Research ROBERT M. AXELROD, Institute of Public Poligy Studies, University of Michigan BARRY M. BLECHMAN, Defense Forecasts, Inc., Washington, D.C. GEORGE W. BRESLAUER, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley JOHN ~ COMAROFF, Department of Anthronolo~v. Universitv of Chicago PHILIP E. CONVERSE, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford, California LYNN R. EDEN, Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University BARRY EICHENGREEN, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley RICHARD E. ERICSON, Department of Economics, Columbia University WILLIAM K ESTES, Department of Psychology, Harvard University WILLIAM ~ GAMSON, Department of Sociology, Boston College ALEXANDER L. GEORGE, Department of Political Science, Stanford University ROBERT JERVIS, Institute for War and Peace Studies, Columbia University GAIL LAPIDUS, Center for Slavic and East European Studies' University of California, Berkeley ROBERT PUTNAM, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University ROY RADNER, Mathematical Sciences Research Center, AT&T Bell Laboratories JACK P. RUINA, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology PHILIP E. TETLOCK, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley , r- - r ~ , PAUL C. STERN, Study Director JO L. HUSBANDS, Senior Research Associate DANIEL DRUCKMAN, Senior Staff Officer ELIZABETH C. ADDISON, Senior Program Assistant . . . 1H

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Acknowledgements The Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Science to the Prevention of Nuclear War is indebted to the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation for their support of the committee and, through it, of these workshops. We also wish to acknowledge the important role of the committee's parent body, the National Research Council's Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education and the Council's Office of International Affairs and its Soviet-East European Program. The program's director, Glenn Schweitzer, offered us wise counsel in developing the US-Soviet agreement to conduct these workshops and the program's staff, especially Anna Phillips, offered us continuing support, assistance, and guidance. We would like to express our appreciation to the many Soviet scholars whose understanding and efforts made these workshops possible, and especially to Andrey Kokoshin, Viktor Sergeev, Vladimir Averchev, and Pavel Parshin of the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Academy of Sciences, USSR. Finally, special thanks are due to David ~ Goslin, former executive director of the commission, for his initiative, enthusiasm, and persistence in bringing these workshops into being. v

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Contents Introduction PART I: OVERVIEWS An American View of Soviet Contributions William K. Estes and Charles Tilly Motives and Models of Cooperation: A Soviet View of American Contributions Vladimir P. Averchev and Pavel B. Parshin PART II: REPRESENTATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TERMS AND CONCEPTS The Concept of Interdependence: Current American Thinking (1988) Robert O. Keohane Evolution of the Concept of "Victory" in Soviet Military- Political Thought After the Second World War (1989) Andrey A. Kokoshin, Viktor M. Sergeev, and Vadim L. ~ymbursky NATIONAL LEADERS IN INTERDEPENDENT SITUATIONS Interdependence in a Crisis Situation: Simulating the Caribbean Crisis (1988) Viktor M. Sergeev, VP. Akimov, Vadim B. Lukov, and Pavel B. Parshin ,, V11 5 7 22 35 37 42 47

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Cognitive and Rhetorical Styles of American and Soviet Politicians (1989) Philip E. Tetlock NEG OTIATION The System of International Negotiations as a Means of Managing Interdependence (1988) Viktor ~ Kremenyuk Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of I\vo-Level Games (1989) Robert D. Putnam ECOLOGY AND INTERDEPENDENCE Ecology and Politics: Political Awareness Development in the USSR (1989) Vasily Sokolov and I. AbaLkina Environmental Mobilization in the United States (1989) Robert Cameron Mitchell APPENDIX: WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS . . . V111 53 57 60 65 69 73