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OCR for page 15
The Making of Cruel Choices
MILTON RUSSELL
For two days, participants in the National Research Council's confer-
ence on valuing health risks, benefits, and costs for environmental decision
making considered and debated the ways in which information developed
in this process is presented, compared, and evaluated, and how it is to be
used or ignored in making environmental decisions.
This debate was an extraordinarily important undertaking. It may
be especially useful for those on the "firing line" in agencies such as the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA - individuals who are in a position
to make decisions, to advise those who do, or to prepare the analytic
underpinnings that inform the decisions that are made. I know from
experience that people in such positions need to set aside time from their
day-to-day activities to think critically about the premises underlying their
actions. They also need different perspectives, especially the ideas of those
who have the opportunity and the inclination to reflect on fundamental
issues of environmental decision making. Otherwise, in the press of hour-
by-hour activities, they run the risk of relying on rules of thumb and on
unexamined value premises of their owner of others. This conference
was designed in part to help those in government, such as myself, carefully
consider and critically examine value premises.
My perspective is that of someone who has until very recently been
inside the maelstrom-I am not with EPA now but who has been outside
it perhaps long enough to have established some distance. Indeed, this
is the third time I have made the journey from academia to government
and back. For me, there has been one constant in each of these trips:
the way certain operational issues that are so dreadfully important while
Milton Russell is professor of economics and senior fellow at the Energy Environment and Re-
sources Center, University of Tennessee, and collaborating scientist at the Oak Ridge National
Laboratory.
15
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THE MAKING OF CRUEL CHOICES
in government seem a ludicrous waste of energy a month later, and the
increased significance, after more thought, of issues that at first appear
to be of less importance. Among the latter are the deeper questions that
are at the root of the issue we are examining in this volume: What is the
principled basis for government decisions that affect the vital interests of
citizens, and from what source do those who make these decisions gain
their legitimacy? These questions have engaged some of civilization's best
minds for centuries, and I have no illusions that totally satisfactory answers
will emerge here. Still, environmental decision making offers a particularly
thorny set of issues that must be grappled with, and it is through this
grappling that the answers to these questions can be approached.
My experience at EPA revealed that the agency deals with extremely
complex problems whose potential solutions have serious and far-reaching
implications. I found that an explicit decision framework to sort out pros
and cons, benefits and costs, was absolutely essential to any reasonable
possibility of using the agency's immense power to do good rather than ill.
The implications of decisions were simply too numerous and too diverse to
be kept in mind without an explicit mechanism and, to the extent possible,
a common metric or standard of measurement to keep score among the
trade-offs that had to be made. I also concluded that what was true of the
executive branch (to the extent it had discretion under the law) was true
as well of the legislative branch as it formulated the statutes. Indeed, as
Congress provides more and more detail in the environmental legislation
it passes, it faces ever more difficulty in understanding the full implications
of its actions-and ever more responsibility to do so.
It is also true, however, that only very seldom does the decision itself
leap out of the analysis-that is, unless analysis is broadened so much as
to lose its commonsense meaning. For example, the specifics of particular
situations, the dictates of protecting a sound decision process, and the
implicit signals about what sort of society should be fostered all play a role
in producing a decision. A man once remarked to me that the British Navy
lost its soul during World War II by issuing the perfectly rational order that
convoys were not to stop to pick up survivors of submarine attacks. This
policy so violated the tradition of the sea and the honor and respect a great
power owed its men as to shake the national resolve. I doubt that this
armchair rumination really explains, as this man suggested, the eventual
loss of the British Empire, but the point was well taken-decisions that are
smart may not be wise.
Nevertheless, the beginning of wisdom in environmental decision mak-
ing is first to be smart, which, in my view, implies careful, explicit analysis
in a structured framework.
Structured in this case does not mean that the elements within such
a framework should resect a static or overly narrow system. For example,
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MILTON RUSSELL
17
an environmental regulation will change the situation to which it applies;
consequences follow that need to be considered. Thus, new regulation
yields new incentives for technological and managerial improvements that
will almost certainly lead to ultimate compliance costs that are lower
than those estimated. Or again, the simple fact that processes have to
be rethought could overturn established ways of operating and also lead
to improvements. The experience of U.S. energy use is relevant here.
When the energy price shocks of the 1970s occurred and energy use in this
country was examined, most firms and individuals found that they had never
bothered to take actions that were well justified even at preshock prices.
The same process seems to be under way today in environmental matters
and can be seen in the new attention being given to safer disposal and lower
production levels of hazardous wastes, the reduced use of pesticides, designs
for chemical processes involving the risk of release of toxic chemicals that
can handle a broader range of conditions and problems, and so forth.
Any analysis of proposed environmental protection actions must take these
dynamic effects into account and must also consider the second and higher
order effects that follow from the initial perturbation. Often, the result
of such consideration is greater risk reduction at substantially lower costs
than previously anticipated although, of course, there may be offsetting
problems as well. A careful analytic effort within an explicit framework will
help in anticipating these effects.
Another thing I discovered at EPA, though, was that, when it comes
to the environment, many people in and out of government are opposed to
the use of an explicit framework, especially one cast in benefit-cost terms.
There are many reasons for this opposition that I will not detail here. It
is my view, however, that one of the most important among them is an
almost visceral reaction against the open consideration of any trade-offs
regarding human health and the environment, even though such trade-offs
are implicit in every decision.
I have some sympathy with this view. It may be that to confront the
reality that life has a price, however high, undermines the foundation of a
society in which we would want to live. This certainly is the view reflected
in the comment on the British Navy convoy policy. It may also be that,
when basic values are in conflict, it may seem worthwhile at times to foster
the comforting myth of their successful accommodation.
I reject in principle, however, the elitist view that the public cannot
be trusted to accept responsibility for cruel choices and that its leaders
should instead feed it comforting bromides while making those choices
on its behalf. Moreover, to obfuscate inevitable choices is to violate the
premise of a government based on the consent of the governed, which to
me is the ultimate source of governmental legitimacy in this country.
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THE MAKING OF CRUEL CHOICES
Besides, there are practical consequences to being less than open and
explicit about trade-offs. An explicit analytic decision framework, with
quantification to the extent possible, can be critical as a communication
device and as a source of discipline for decision makers to prevent their
usurpation of power that is not rightly theirs. As a communication device,
an explicit decision framework makes obvious at least some of the effects
of alternative actions and thereby brings to the surface the bases of deci-
sions. As a result, others may be informed more fully and can make their
judgments known. As discipline, it makes it harder for decision makers to
hide behind a verbal "fast shuffle" if they seek to impose their own views
of the good society on the public without its informed consent.
Analysis of the sort that meets these requirements can take many
forms, and EPA uses a rich array of techniques. Analyses range from
data-based but ultimately judgmental comparative risk efforts to risk-risk
comparisons, cost-effectiveness estimates, and, finally, full-blown, formal
benefit-cost studies.
I welcome the discussion of benefit-cost analysis at this conference
because of the important issues involved in its use: its value predicates, its
unexamined assumptions, its static bias, its demands for data, and, certainly,
the opportunity for manipulation of results by unscrupulous practitioners.
Yet I hope that the fact that formal benefit-cost analyses have limitations
and that their results can be manipulated or overinterpreted does not lead
to rejection of the idea that lies behind the motive for using them. That
idea proposes that what really counts is to understand what is gained and
at what cost from alternative courses of action, and then to make decisions
based on the balance that is cast. I have not found a better basis for
decisions, or, indeed, in some deeper sense, that there is any other basis-
at least when you are in a position in which you really must decide what is
actually to be done.
These are strong statements. In their support, let me offer their
predicates as related to environmental protection.
The first predicate is that resources are ultimately limited. There
is only so much that can be done, although that amount can be made
larger if people work smarter and resources are used more efficiently. The
resource "pie" can also expand over time, and resources can be shifted
to environmental protection so that the size of that slice of the pie may
grow. Yet at any given time, to demand more than exists is an exercise in
deluding others; to expect to get it is an exercise in deluding oneself.
The second predicate is that the selection of any action simultaneously
rejects others. At the most basic level, labor, materials, and skills devoted
to one task cannot be used for another, although it may be impractical to
identify the other uses to which the resources would be put.
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MILTON RUSSET
19
The third predicate is the corollary of the second. When a regulatory
agency rejects one action or technology, it promotes others. For example,
to forbid the use of one pesticide promotes the use of alternatives. 1b
prevent sewage sludge from being dumped in the ocean encourages land
disposal or incineration.
The final predicate is that decisions are made. Ex post facto, there
is an array of goods and services produced, health risks that are borne
or avoided, and environmental insults that are imposed or turned aside.
There are also patterns of individual behavior that are rewarded and those
that are penalized, together with social goals that are enshrined and those
that are denied.
Given these predicates, the task of public policy is to make the trade-
offs that lead to a set of outcomes that are the best possible. And there's
the rub: how to decide which are "best."
One view, to which I subscribe and which I think is enshrined in the
American system of government, is that what is "best" depends on the
values of those to whom government officials are responsible; that is, those
now living. This approach does not imply a decision framework that turns
its back on the past or one that ignores future generations. Nor does it mean
the selfish sacrifice of other elements of planetary life for instant, narrowly
human, gratification. Rather, it means leaving those choices to the citizens
as a whole, working through established political institutions, instead of
allowing some few who feel they know best to arrogate the decision-making
role. It is individual citizens who have the responsibility to consider future
generations. It is up to them to reflect in their choices the long-term
continuity of the natural systems on which they and future generations will
depend, and which they cherish. It is up to them to attempt to convince
others to adopt their values on these and other matters. Government
officials and political leaders have the dual role of first participating in the
education and persuasion process and then reflecting in action the goals
that are selected.
With respect to whether these goals properly account for the future
and for non-human health outcomes, I can only note that decisions are
made by humans and that they are being made today. The only issues
are which humans, working through what institutions, and reflecting which
values. While neither ducks nor those yet unborn may vote, I, along with
Jefferson, know of no safe repository of the power to decide other than
with those who do.
The U.S. political system, therefore, mediates between the citizens,
whose values are to be served, and their agents, whose decisions and actions
yield the trade-of I discussed earlier. This process brings us back to the
function of analysis, which is to illuminate the ramifications of choices. It
also brings us to the practical necessity of a formal analytic mechanism or
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THE MAKING OF CRUEL CHOICES
set of conventions to collect, organize, summarize, and present information
about alternative sets of outcomes to decision makers and the public. The
practical questions that follow are how broadly should the net be cast for
effects of consequence, what effects caught in that net are relevant, how are
they to be valued, and how are they to be presented. As a contribution to
the context for a discussion of these issues, I want to provide an illustration
of the way some of these questions are presented, and demonstrate why I
find an explicit decision framework essential when it comes to protecting
the environment.
Municipal sewage plants produce sludge that must be disposed of-on
or under the ground, in the air through incineration, or in the ocean. There
are irreducible risks in any of these choices.
Land-based disposal carries risks mostly for humans; ocean-based
disposal modes primarily affect marine organisms. Some of these risks are
incurred immediately: emissions from an incinerator are breathed at the
time of disposal, and dietary risk from cropland disposal follows within
months. Other risks are incurred in the-future: disposal in landfills may
lead to the leaching of toxic substances into groundwater, which, even
in the event the water were drunk, would not bring exposure for some
time. Another distinction among risks is the certainty of the exposure. The
air will be breathed, but the water may not be drunk On yet another
dimension, emissions from an incinerator may expose a sizable population
to risk, although of a very small level, whereas groundwater risks may be
greater but would affect only the limited population that someday might
draw water from an untested, contaminated well.
In addition, all of these disposal options require resources that could
be used to satisfy other needs. The amount spent will vary among options
and also within each option with respect to what precautions and controls
are imposed. Therefore, the costs to be incurred influence the probability
and magnitude of the residual risk
Furthermore, as noted earlier, any choice that is made and enacted
will affect the system as a whole. Dynamic adjustments occur that will
often although not always yield less perturbation than a static analysis
might suggest. Thus, costs are likely to be lower, as are environmental
impacts, as systems rebound and defend themselves against stress.
In this hypothetical (although relevant) example of deciding where to
put sludge, protecting fish has to be balanced against protecting humans.
Is the probability of avoiding one excess premature death worth reducing
the risk to fish in one cubic mile of ocean? A hundred cubic miles?
The North Atlantic? Or, with respect to timing, is avoiding one probable
excess premature death now worth as much as avoiding one next year? Or
avoiding 500, let us say, 1,000 years from now?
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MILTON RUSSET
21
Furthermore, how much is avoiding that excess premature death this
year worth? A million dollars worth of- other desired expenditures or
programs? A billion dollars? The gross national product of the state of
New York? What life extension as well as life enhancement would those
other allocations yield?
On what basis is a lower level of risk to many to be traded off against
a higher level of risk to a few? Is each person of equal concern? If so,
is it just the number of health effects that is to be minimized, Or is the
relationship more complex than this? What about disabling or even merely
uncomfortable health effects? How are they to be reckoned when the
alternative is the possibility of an excess premature death? What is the rate
of exchange between colds and cancer?
For those in public service, the temptation is to say that these are,
in principle, unanswerable questions and that they cannot be considered
together in one decision. Another response might be that the choices are
too cruel to have morally acceptable answers; therefore, they should never
be presented in stark terms that require individuals to face them-and face
themselves after they have chosen. Rather, a veil should be cast over such
choices so that the public is not exposed to them and made both uneasy
and a knowing party to an essentially immoral decision.
It must be remembered, however, that the sludge has to go somewhere.
When it gets there, the fabric of consequences are real, and the trade-offs
will have been made. Human lives may have been exchanged for fish;
current lives may have been traded off for lives in the future; one array
of goods and services and risks will have been experienced while others
will not; health risks of one sort will have been distributed in a particular
way to a particular population. A set of values will have been summarized
in an explicit decision and somebody made that decision for the rest of
the nation's citizens. In making it, that person or persons had to choose
among options that exhibited different kinds of goods and bads. In the
process, a common basis of comparison was used-whether it was conscious
or unconscious, freely admitted or kept secret. Apples and oranges cannot
be added, but how many of one must be given up to get how many more
of the other can and I believe should be reckoned consciously, before a
decision is made.
I noted earlier the resistance to a decision process that openly confronts
such trade-offs, a process that, however gingerly, puts a "price" on health
effects or ecological damage. Again, I can sympathize with that kind of
resistance. The rhetoric that supports it strikes a primitive chord and
appeals to our childlike longing for a world in which every problem has a
solution and that solution is an unalloyed good. Nevertheless, cruel choices
have got to be made, and it seems to me surely irresponsible in a public
official to make those choices without tracing their consequences to the
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THE MAKING OF CRUEL CHOICES
fullest extent possible. Formal analysis must be brought in for this task.
The values to be placed on different ecological, health, economic, social,
and personal outcomes at different times are supplied by the decision
maker, who is responsible to the political process. The decision can be
made on the basis of the balance of the apparent advantage of one option
over another. This response is my incomplete and still unsatisfactory answer
to the question posed at the beginning of this paper regarding the nature
of a "principled basis" for making environmental decisions.
In terms of the second question posed earlier, I believe legitimacy
flows from an acceptance of the decision, or at least of the decision
process, by those affected. If this belief is valid, it can be achieved only
when the bases of decisions are made explicit and open so that citizens also
experience the reality of cruel choices, a policy that offers the possibility
of true accountability, should citizens choose to exercise their oversight
potential. The opportunity to confer or remove authority is essential to a
free and democratic society, and providing the information on which such
action may be based is essential in sustaining legitimacy. Moreover, in my
judgment, being explicit and open about controversial choices is an exercise
in leadership. It leads to a successful, lasting resolution of the case in point
and also develops among citizens greater sophistication and understanding
to make other decisions in the future.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
decision framework
