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HAZE IN THE
GRAND CANYON
. .
An Evaluation of the Winter Haze
Intensive Tracer Experiment
.~
Committee on Haze
.
in National Parks and Wilderness Areas
Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. ~ 990
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Arc., N.W. Warn, D.C 21~418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board
of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies
and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, non-profit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the further-
ance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of
the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it
to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is presi-
dent of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autono-
mous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Acade-
my of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy
of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages
education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M.
White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given
to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and educa-
tion. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916
To associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of
furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in
providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities.
Ibe Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine.
Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the
National Research Council.
This study was supported by contract numbers 14~1 0001-89-C-39 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Interior, DE-FG01-90FE62072 from the De-
partment of Energy, (Purchase Order Number) 01)1447NANT from the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, and VN~8016CAS from the Arizona Salt River Project.
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 90-62765
International Standard Book Number ~309 04341-7
S226
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academy Press, 2101
Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418
Cover art by Terry Pal..~elee.
Printed in the United States of America
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Committee on Haze in National Parks
and Wilderness Areas
ROBERT A. DUCK, Chairman, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
JACK G. CALVERT, Mice Chairman, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO
GLEN R. CASS, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
ROBERT J. CHARLSON, University of Washington, Seattle
JOHN E. CORE, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, Portland
WILLIAM H. ELDER, Tennessee Valley Authority (retired), Muscle Shoals,
AL
PETER H. MCMURRY, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
PAULETTE B. MIDDLETON, State University of New York, Albany
CRAIG N. OREN, Rutgers (State University of New Jersey) School of Law,
Camden
JOSEPH M. PROSPERO, University of Miami, Miami
PERRY J. SAMSON, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
LEN M. TORRENS, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto
JOHN TRIJONIS, Santa Fe Research Corp., Bloomington, MN
WARREN H. WHITE, Washington University, St. Louis
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, Liaison Member for the Board on Environmental
Studies and Toxicology, University of California, Irvine
Project Staff
ROBERT B. SMYTHE, Program Director
KATHLEEN DANIEL, Project Director
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Staff Officer
LEE R. PAULSON, Editor
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Copy Editor
ANNE M. SPRAGUE, Information Specialist
SANDRA W. FITZPATRICK, Administrative Assistant
FELITA S. BUCKNER, Project Assistant
BOYCE N. AGNEW, Project Assistant
·..
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Board on Atmospheric Sciences
and Climate
JOHN A. DUITON, Chai'7nan, Pennsylvania State University, University
Park
ION F. BAR~OLIC, Michigan State University, East Lansing
RAFAEL L. BRAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MOUSTAFA T. CHAHINE, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
ROBERT A. DUCK, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
- MICHAEL H. Go, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, N]
DAVID D. HOUGHTON, University of Wisconsin, Madison
RICHARD G. JOHNSON, Los Altos, CA
EUGENE KALNAY, National Meteorology Center, Washington, D.C.
SYUKURO MANABE, Princeton University, Princeton
GERALD R. NORTH, Texas A&M University, College Station
JAMES J. O'BRIEN, Florida State University, Tallahassee
. . .
E'c-Officio Members
ROBERT DICKINSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder
ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado, Boulder
PETER S. RAY, Florida State University, Tallahassee
DONALD J. WILLIAMS, John Hopkins University, Laurel, MD
IV
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Board on Environmental Studies
and Toxicology
GILBERT S. OMENN (Chairman), University of Washington, Seattle
FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, Washington School of Law, American University
JOHN C. BAILAR, III, McGill University School of Medicine, Montreal
LAWRENCE W. BARN~OUSE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge
CARRY D. BREWER, Yale University, New Haven
JOANNA BURGER, Nelson Laboratory, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ
YORA~I COHEN, University of California, Los Angeles
JOHN L. EMMERSON, Lilly Research Laboratories, Greenfield, IN
ROBERT L. HARNESS, Monsanto Agricultural Company, St. Louis
ALE RED G. KNUDSON, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia
GENE E. LIKENS, The New York Botanical Garden, Millbrook
PAUL J. LIOY, UMDNJ-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Piscataway
JANE LUBCHENCO, Oregon State University, Corvallis
DONALD ~SON, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh
. .
NATHANIEL REED, Hobe Sound, FL
F. SHERWOOD ROWIAND, University of California, Irvine
MILTON RUSSELL, Un~versi~ of Tennessee, Knoxville
MARGARET M. SEMINARIO, AFL`/CIO, Washington, DC
I. GLENN SIPES, University of Arizona, Tucson
WALTER J. WEBER, JR., University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Staff
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Program Director for Natural Resources
and Applied Ecology
ROBERT B. SMmIE, Program Director for Exposure Assessment
and Risk Reduction
RICHARD D. THOMAS, Program Director for Human Toxicology
and Risk Assessment
LEE R. PAULSON, Manager, Toxicology Information Center
v
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Commission on Geosciences,
Environment, and Resources
M. GORDON WOLMAN (Chaim~an), The Johns Hopkins University
ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
B. CLARK BURCHFIEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California, Irvine
PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
GENE E. LIKENS, New York Botanical Gardens, Millbrook
SCOW M. MATHESON, Parsons, Behle & Latimer, Salt Lake City
JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University, Ithaca
PHILIP A. PALMER, E.I. dU Pont de Nemours & Co., Newark, DE
FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University, Nashville
DUNCAN T. PA,11EN, Arizona State University, Tempe
MAXINE L. SAVIIZ, Allied Signal Aerospace, Torrance, CA
LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign
STEVEN M. STANLEY, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland
SIR CRISPI.N MC=LL, United Kingdom Mission to the United Nations
KARL K- TUREKIAN, Yale University, New Haven
IRVIN L. WHITE, New York State Energy Research and Development
Authority, Albany
JAMES H. ZUMBERGE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
Staff
STEPHEN RAVEN, Executive Director
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director
JANICE E. GREENE, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE A. SPOON, Financial Officer
This study was begun under the Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and
Resources, whose members are listed in Appendix 4, and completed under the successor
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources.
Vl
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Preface
Many delightful experiences can be enjoyed in our nation's numerous na-
tional parks and wilderness areas, but among the finest are the beautiful views
of nature found in these locations. Particularly spectacular are the often
distant and majestic scenes of mountains, deserts, plains, and ocean. Our
concern for maintaining the clarity of views in these areas is reflected in the
Clean Air Act, which specifically addresses the protection of visibility in our
national parks and wilderness areas. Early in 1990, the National Research
Council (NRC) established the Committee on Haze in National Parks and
Wilderness Areas to address issues related to visibility degradation in these
protected regions. In particular, the committee was asked to consider the
relative importance of human-derived and natural emissions that contribute
to visibility reduction In these locations and to evaluate possible source-control
approaches. As part of its charge, the committee was also asked to evaluate
a recent scientific study by the National Park Service (NPS) of visibility degra-
dation and its causes In one of our most beautiful national parks, Grand
Canyon. This publication is the committee's evaluation of the NPS report on
the Winter Haze Intensive Tracer Experiment (WHITEX) and its conclusion
that the Navajo Generating Station (NGS) contributed to wintertime visibility
impairment in Grand Canyon National Park during the study.
The committee's task was not an easy one. Source apportionment is a
rather inexact but very complex component of the atmospheric sciences. New
techniques and approaches are constantly being designed and tested, and
personal judgment and experience often play significant roles in evaluation
processes. However, I have never worked with a committee more dedicated
to the development of a fair, objective, and honest evaluation of what has
become a controversial issue. Everyone involved in this NRC project, includ-
ing the sponsoring organizations, cooperated in every way possible.
The committee met at Grand Canyon National Park from March 28-31,
1990. We were provided with extensive written and oral information by feder-
vii
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viii · HAZE IN THE GRAND CANYON
al personnel and other project sponsors, including the National Park Service,
the Bureau of Reclamation, the Department of the Interior's Office of Envi-
ronmental Quality, the Department of Energy, the Env~ronrnental Protection
Agency, the Forest Service, and the Arizona Salt River Project (operators of
NGS) and their consultants. We were also given an extensive tour of the NGS
and of the atmospheric monitoring station at Hopi Point in Grand Canyon
National Park. After this meeting, the federal liaison group—representing the
sponsoring agencies and the Arizona Salt River Project continued to provide
the committee with information promptly whenever it was requested. This
was greatly appreciated. In addition to the committee's formal meetings,
committee members and NRC staff spent many hours in conference calls and
in individual conversations.
The committee's heartfelt thanks must go to the NRC staff who devoted
themselves so thoroughly to this report. Dr. James J. Reisa, the director of
the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, and Dr. Robert Smythe,
the program director, provided us with guidance, perspective, and oversight.
The project director, Kathleen J. Daniel, worked closely with committee mem-
bers through all phases of the report preparation. Her enthusiasm, knowledge
of the field, sense of humor, commitment to a quality report, and true concern
about the issues being addressed played a major role in the committee's ef-
forts, and in particular, in our development of a consensus on this controver-
sial issue. Wed also thank staff member Raymond Wassel, who contributed
significantly to the committee's efforts, and Felita Buckner, Boyce Agnew, and
Sandi Fitzpatrick, who worked closely and effectively with the committee
throughout report preparation and production. Finally, Lee Paulson took our
often-tangled prose and provided clear renditions and editorial revisions.
The committee hopes this report will provide useful suggestions and guid-
ance as the nation continues efforts to protect and presence the natural visi-
bility in our national parks and wilderness areas for ourselves and future
generations.
Robert A. Duce
Chairman
October 3, 1990
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BACKGROUND
THE NRC COMMITTEE STUDY
The Committee, Its Charge, and Its Approach, 15
The Committee's Specific Interpretation of Its Charge, 16
EVALUATION OF WHITEX
WHITEX Overview, 16
WHITEX Source-Attribution Models, 18
Critical Aspects of WHITEX Techniques and Design, 19
Qualitative Assessment, 19
Quantitative Assessment, 23
Limitations of the WHITEX Study, 24
Weaknesses In the Data Base, 24
Departures from Statistical Assumptions, 25
Formulation of Statistical Models, 26
Simplifications in the DMB Model, 31
Potential Covariance of NGS and Other Source
Contributions, 32
Estimates of the Range of Possible Impacts of
NGS Emissions at Hopi Point, 33
THE COMMI 1-1 HE'S CONCLUSIONS IN PERSPECTIVE
CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
1
9
15
16
37
37
39
fix
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x · CONTENTS
APPENDIX 1: NATURE OF THE VISIBILITY PROBLEM
APPENDIX 2: SELECTED PAGES FROM THE NPS-
WHlTEX REPORT
APPENDIX 3: CD4 AS AN AIR-MASS TRACER
APPENDIX 4: COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES,
MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES
.:
43
45
95
97
