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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS Monitoring Supply, Demand, and Quality Dorothy M. Gilford and Ellen Tenenbaum, Editors Panel on Statistics on Supply and Demand for Precollege Science and Mathematics Teachers F. Thomas Juster, Chair Committee on National Statistics Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1990

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Repon Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis- tinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the-furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it lay the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel 0. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This project was supported with funds from the National Science Foundation and the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89-89-64263 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04197-X Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 S099 Printed in the United States of America

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PANEL ON STATISTICS ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS F. THOMAS JUSTER (Chair), Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan WILMER S. CODY, State Department of Education, Baton Rouge, Louisiana GLENN ~ CROSBY, Department of Chemistry, Washington State University F. JOE CROSSWHITE, Department of Mathematics, Northern Arizona University HARRIET FISHLOW, Undergraduate Enrollment Planning, Office of the President, Academic Affairs Division, University of California, Berkeley CHARLO'l lit; V. KUH, Graduate Record Examination Board, Princeton, New Jersey EUGENE P. MCLOONE, Department of Education Policy, Planning, and Administration, University of Maryland MICHAEL S. MCPHERSON, Department of Economics, Williams College RICHARD J. MURNANE, (graduate School of Education, Harvard University INGRAM OLKIN, Department of Statistics and School of Education, Stanford University JOHN J. STIGLMEIER, Information Center on Education, New York State Education Department DOROTHY M. GILFORD, Study Director ELLEN TENENBAUM, Consultant M. JANE PHILLIPS, Administrative Secretary . . 111

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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS BURTON H. SINGER (Chair), Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University JAMES O. BERGER, Statistics Department, Purdue University DAVID H. BLACKWELL, Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley NORMAN M. BRADBURN, Provost, University of Chicago RONALD S. BROOKMEYER, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University MARTIN H. DAVID, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison LOUIS GORDON, Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California JERRY ~ HAUSMAN, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology F. THOMAS JUSTER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan GRAHAM KALTON, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, and Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan JANE ~ MENKEN, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania S. JAMES PRESS, Department of Statistics, University of California, Riverside DOROTHY P. RICE, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco KENNETH W. WACHTER, Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley MIRON L. S - AF, Director 1V

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Acknowledgments The panel wishes to thank the many people who contributed to the development of this report. First, we benefited greatly from the experiences of those school district officials and teachers who participated in the case studies. Special thanks are extended to consultants Jane L. David, Marianne Amarel, and Jennifer P. Pruyn, who conducted in-depth case studies of six of the selected school districts. Also of great benefit to the panel were the insights shared by the personnel directors of the seven large city school systems during the conference that took place in May 1988: Charles Almo, Chicago Public Schools; Edward Aquilone, New York City Schools; Ray Cohrs, Seattle Public Schools; Thomas Killeen, Los Angeles Unified School System; Alan Olkes, Dade County School District; George Russell, San Diego City Unified School District; and Jim Shinn, Montgomery County School System. Marlene Holayter, Fairfax County Public Schools, helped in organizing the conference by identifying potential participants; she also participated in the conference. Particular thanks are due to Richard Berry and to Ronald Anderson of the Office of Studies and Program Assessment, the National Science Foundation. Each of them served as the panel's project officer in different phases of the panel, provided valuable information to panel members, and shared their thoughts and professional experience. The panel is also grateful for the help and encouragement extended by Paul Planchon of the National Center for Education Statistics. We would also like to thank members of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education and of the Committee on National Statistics, who reviewed the report and provided thoughtful and incisive comments. In addition, Mary Papageorgiou, statistician with the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), carefully read the draft report and v

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clarified important information about the Schools and Staffing Survey now being undertaken at NCES. Constance Citro of the Committee on National Statistics also found time to review the report and offered cogent comments, reflecting her earlier service to the panel as study director for the first phase of the project. And Jane ~ David took the time to read the draft report, raising important questions that led to rewriting and reorganizing pans of the report. Christine McShane, editor of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, provided highly professional editing of the report, which contributed greatly to its readability. She also prepared it for final publication. The panel extends its appreciation to its staff for their tireless work and dedication to this project. Jane Phillips served ably as administrative secretary for the panel, taking care of the logistical arrangements for the panel meetings and cheerfully and efficiently handling the numerous rounds of revisions to the draft report. Dorothy M. Gilford, who served as study director for the second phase, not only contributed substantially to the style, substance, and coherence of the report, but also successfully motivated panel members to work much harder on the project than they may have originally planned. Ellen Tenenbaum assisted Dorothy in producing a cohesive synthesis of our discussions and conclusions, as well as in rewriting and reorganizing drafts prepared by panel members. Finally, I wish to thank the panel members themselves for their gen- erous contributions of time and expert knowledge. It has been a pleasure to work together toward this final report. While the findings and recom- mendations reflect the collective thinking of the panel, I appreciate the hard work done by individual panel members in drafting text for several chapters: Harriet Fishlow prepared the demography section of Chapter 2; Richard Murnane drafted Chapter 3; John Stiglmeier prepared the in- troduction to Chapter 4 and provided very useful data about teachers in the state of New York; Eugene McLoone drafted most of Chapter 5; and Charlotte Kuh wrote the introduction to Chapter 6. It would be remiss not to mention Dick Murnane's and Charlotte Kuh's helpful responses to many questions raised by the staff while the report was being revised to respond to reviewers. Thomas Juster, Chair Panel on Statistics on Supply and Demand for Precollege Science and Mathematics Teachers V1

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Contents SUMMARY............................. Data Recommendations, 3 Resources for Data, 4 Demand Data, 4 Supply Data, 5 Quality Data, 6 General Data Recommendations, 7 Research Issues Identified by the Panel, 8 Resources for Research, 8 Research on Demand, 8 Research on Supply, 9 Research on Quality, 10 Research on Student Outcomes, 11 Research Facilitation, 11 Information Exchange Among Districts, States, and the NCES, 11 Implementing the Recommendations, 12 1 INTRODUCTION.................................. The Meaning of Shortage, 15 Factors Affecting Demand, 17 Factors Affecting Supply, 24 Quality Issues in Supply and Demand, 26 The Panel's Work and Organization of the Report, 34 . . .1 DETERMINING TEACHER DEMAND 37 Student Enrollment, 37 Enrollment Projections Based on Student Enrollment Data, 38 V11

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Population Projections A Proxy for Enrollment Projections, 43 Research Areas Related to Student Enrollment, 50 Pupil-Teacher Ratios, 51 Components of Teacher Demand and Related Data, 52 Research on Determinants of Pupil-Teacher Ratios, 55 Teacher Attrition Rates, 56 Summary, 58 DETERMINING SUPPLY: INDIVIDUAL AND DISTRICT ACTIVITIES......................... . . . . . . The Components of Supply, 60 Continuing Teachers, 61 New Entrants, 64 What Influences an Individual to Teach?, 65 College Students' Occupational Preparation Decisions, 68 The Decision to Enter Teaching, 69 Where to Teach, 71 How Long to Stay in Teaching, 72 Whether to Return to Teaching, 75 Whether to Move to a Different State, 76 When to Retire, 77 Conclusions, 79 How Does a District Mesh Supply With Demand?, 80 Determining Needs, 81 Soliciting Applicants, 83 Screening Applicants, 84 Making Offers, 87 Who is Hired, 89 Conclusions, 90 Summary, 91 4 MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS............................... Monitoring Points Along the Supply Pipeline, 94 College Students Planning to Teach, 95 Certification, 96 New Hires, 98 The Reserve Pool, 101 Retention and Attrition Rates, 105 Teacher Mobility and Interstate Migration, 107 A Special Case: The Supply of Minority Teachers, 110 Summary? 115 .. . V111 .......... 60 ....92

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5 STATISTICS RELATED TO THE QUALITY OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHING 116 School System Policies and Practices, 120 Recruitment and Hiring Practices, 120 Misassignment of Teachers, 123 Providing for Inservice and Continuing Education, 125 Other Practices That Affect Teaching Quality, 127 Measuring Teacher Qualifications, 129 Certification as the Basic Prosy for Teacher Quality, 129 Course Preparation and Transcript Data, 130 Professional Standards as a Quality Dimension, 133 Testing for Subject-Matter Knowledge, 134 The Holmes and Carnegie Recommended Standards, 135 The Presidential Awards for Science and Mathematics Teachers, 136 Teacher Qualifications and Student Outcomes, 138 Evidence, 138 Implications for Data and Research, 139 Other School and Home Factors That Affect Outcomes, 141 Curriculum Structure, 141 Quality of Textbooks, 141 Classroom Time Used for Science and Mathematics, 142 Other Instructional Factors, 143 Home Environment, 144 Summary, 145 6 DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES Data Recommendations, 158 Funding for Data Collection, 159 Data Related to Demand, 159 Data Related to Supply, 160 Data Related to Qualipr, 166 General Data Recommendations, 168 Research Issues Identified by the Panel, 170 Resources for Research, 170 Demand, 171 Supply, 171 Quality, 173 Student Outcomes, 175 Research Facilitation, 176 Graduate Student Research, 176 Data Bases for Personal Computers, 177 ix ..... 157

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State Data Bases, 177 Limitations of Un~variate Indicators, 178 Facilitation of Information Exchange Among Districts, States, and the NCES, 179 References ........ ........... 183 A PANEL ACTIVITIES, 211 B NATIONAL DATA SETS RELATING TO DEMAND, SUPPLY, AND QUALITY OF PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS, 218 C AVAILABILITY OF STATE DATA ON PUBLIC SCHOOL PROFESSIONAL PERSONNEL' 230 D ACRONYMS, 251 E BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES, 253 x