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6
Data Needs and Research Opportunities
1
The previous chapters display some of the conceptual richness that
meaningful descriptions of supply and demand for precollege science and
mathematics teachers would entail. Some of these discussions are based
on quite detailed data from a single state or sample survey. Such rich
descriptions cannot be realized at a national level, however, in the absence
of comprehensive national data (or an aggregation of state data) that would
give them substance.
As we have noted in earlier chapters, classrooms are rarely unstuffed.
What usually is adjusted in times of shortage or surplus is the quality of
staff. Moreover, there is a reservoir of individuals who are certified to teach,
as well as individuals who would like to teach but are not certified, that
is far larger than the counts generated by enumeration of those currently
teaching and the numbers of new graduates of teacher training programs.
Some analysts believe that in the next decade the demand for science
and mathematics teachers will increase as a result of growing enrollment
demand and teacher retirements. 1b understand how the supply and quality
of science and mathematics teachers will respond to changes in demand,
data are needed to support the construction of measures of demand, of
potential supply, of quality to the extent possible, and of models of the
responsiveness of supply to incentives and to changes in demand.
It is the panel's view that current national data collection efforts and
knowledge of the relation between incentives and supply are inadequate to
support rich structural modeling of teacher demand and supply. Thus, we
propose a sequential approach:
157
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AD ~THE~TICS TRACHEA
· First, as efforts are made to improve the consistency, scope, and
quantity of data, publish indicators from existing data that are
considered relevant to teacher supply and demand.
· Second, carry out the research needed to support behavioral mod-
els.
· Third, as data bases are improved and research findings on the
relation between incentive and supply become available, devote
resources to structural modeling that goes beyond straightforward
extrapolative projection.
In this chapter, the panel's recommendations for data to monitor the
state of demand, supply, and quality of precollege science and mathe-
matics teachers are set out, followed by a discussion of research issues
and a recommendation for a series of conferences that could assist in
understanding the processes that result in the observed data. Some of
the data recommendations could be easily implemented by modification of
existing survey questionnaires. Others would require new data collection
approaches. Similarly, some of the research issues can be studied with
existing data or data soon to be available from SASS, whereas other issues
can only be investigated by development of new data bases.
This chapter proceeds with sections on data recommendations (most
of them for NCES), research issues (primarily for NSF), research facil-
itation suggestions, and finally a major recommendation for a series of
conferences bringing together NCES and officials of school districts and
state education agencies to discuss teacher supply, demand, and quality
concerns. It is difficult to assign priorities across such disparate topics.
However, within each section where we have listed specific recommenda-
tions we have marked those of highest priority with an asterism In addition,
in most of the sections, the specific recommendations are listed in order of
priority. Finally, at the conclusion of the Summary we offer guidelines for
timing the implementation of the high-priority recommendations.
DATA RECOMMENDATIONS
We present a wide range of data recommendations related to demand,
supply, and quality. Better data in the short run on elements of the sup-
ply/demand situation, including the sensitivity of teachers' career decisions
to the many factors that may influence these decisions, will in turn con-
tribute to the kinds of behavioral models that should be effective in the
future. At the outset, we urge NCES to support SASS with a reliable,
ongoing base of funding.
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
159
Funding for Data Collection
In the near term it is of key importance to monitor the state of demand,
supply, and quality of precollege science and mathematics teachers. We
note that the National Center for Education Statistics recognized the need
for a major effort of data collection concerning teachers and contracted
with the RAND Corporation in 1985 to design the Schools and Staffing
Survey (SASS). A pilot test of that survey was conducted in 1986-87, and
the first full-scale survey was conducted in 1987-88. SASS data are expected
to be available in 1990 (publication has been delayed because of recent
legislation pertaining to the confidentiality of data collected by NCES).
Although new surveys always have unexpected problems, we anticipate that
much of the needed data will be available and we have so identified data
needs that SASS was designed to fill. 1b monitor the supply and demand
of science and mathematics teachers effectively, SASS should be repeated
periodically, at least every four years, and adequate funds for analysis
should be made available to permit full exploitation of this valuable data
resource.
*The panel recommends that provision be made in the budget for the
National Center for Education Statistics to conduct the Schools and Staffing
Survey on a regular cycle and that the budget include funds for follow-up
surveys of teachers who leave teaching and for in-house and eMernal analysis
of the survey data
Data Related to Demand
In general, the panel finds demand data to be relatively adequate. The
task of projecting enrollment-driven demand for science and mathematics
teachers is relatively straightforward. The U.S. Bureau of the Census col-
lects data on births and their geographic distribution. The children born
each year move through precollege schooling in a very predictable way and
are augmented primarily through immigration. The data most needed for
projecting demand for teachers are current attrition data, particularly data
on attrition for reasons other than retirement. Forecasting demand for sci-
ence and math teachers, rather than teachers generally, could be improved
if better data on course-taking behavior in high school were available.
This behavior results both from state-mandated course requirements and
from student course preferences. The panel recommends the collection of
additional data, disaggregated by subject, of the following types, in order of
. .
priority:
*1. Data on attrition/retention rates of nonretirees by discipline. Detailed
discussion of these data on attrition/retention is found below under data
related to supply. Although knowledge and ability to forecast retirements
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
is fairly adequate, data on attrition earlier in the teaching career would
improve projections of demand.
2. Data on state-mandated high school course requirements in sci-
ence and mathematics. Increased requirements for mathematics or science
courses can lead to greater demand for teachers of both advanced and
remedial courses. The Education Commission of the States (ECS) pub-
lishes data on changes in state requirements periodically, although at a
very general level, i.e., the number of science and mathematics courses re-
quired. State data are only a beginning. NCES has found that high school
graduation requirements as mandated by states are often exceeded by the
requirements already in place in individual districts. Therefore, relying
solely on changes in state requirements to determine demand for teachers
will probably overestimate increased demand.
3. Data on course offerings and changes in offenng~; over rime. Changes
in course offerings can change the demand for science and mathematics
teachers and, in particular, can indicate the need for teachers with special
qualifications, such as the ability to teach advanced placement chemistry.
4. Data on changes in enrollments (in general and for particular science
and mathematics courses). Such enrollment data should be disa~egated by
sex and race/ethnicity. Although SASS data from LEAs will provide changes
in the number of secondary science teachers by science subject and changes
in the number of mathematics teachers and computer-science teachers,
the SASS local education agency form does not track student enrollments
in a parallel fashion. The SASS teacher questionnaire could be used to
obtain enrollment data by race/ethnicity and sex for particular science and
mathematics courses by expanding the question that asks teachers sampled
for the names of the courses they teach and the number of students in each
course.
It is important that new data collections related to demand be dis-
aggregated by subject to be useful in setting policy to produce a corps of
teachers with the right mix of skills to meet the demands of future years.
Data Related to Supply
The number of teachers employed in schools nationwide is augmented
each year by new graduates from teacher training programs, newly certified
teachers who enter teaching from other pathways (collaborative relation-
ships with industry, for example), and entrants from the reserve pool of
previously certified teachers who have never taught or former teachers who
have chosen to reenter the profession. The number of teachers employed is
diminished by attrition due to retirement and other causes. Thus monitor-
ing supply requires keeping track of changes in the supply pool generally.
In particular, it requires data over time on certification, on attrition and
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNlT ES
161
retention rates, and on new hiring and the levels of key incentives that at-
tract people to the teaching profession. Monitoring supply calls, as well, for
data that describe the competitiveness of teacher salaries relative to oppor-
tunity cost salaries, amount of reciprocity in certification across states, and
portability of teacher pensions. Our highest-priority data recommendations
for the short run call for better data on attrition, on the hinug rate for
newly certified teachers, on the supply potential of segments of the reserve
pool, and on incentives that influence individuals' decisions to enter or
leave teaching. The panel recommends obtaining better data or making fuller
use of existing data on the following aspects of supply, which are presented in
'pipeline" order:
1. College students planning to teach
.
7Pend data on the career interests expressed by college freshmen.
Indicators of future teacher supply include student aspirations to become
teachers. The proportion of freshmen aspiring to teach appears to be up
now for the first time in many years. Data from The American Freshman
(described in Appendix B) should be analyzed by subject major, sex, and
ethnicity. Follow-ups of students after two years and four years that are
conducted occasionally also should be analyzed. However, it should be
kept in mind that the number of freshmen who say they want to teach may
be only loosely related to the number among them who actually obtain
certificates.
· Data on science, mathematics, and education majors to be related'
if possible, to numbers of actual certificants. How many, by major, who
planned/did not plan to teach entered/did not enter the certification stage?
The High School and Beyond and Recent College Graduates surveys pro-
vide these data.
2. Certification
· Information on state certification policies and practices. NCES should
continue to collect and disseminate this information.
· Data from states on education school and certification program en-
rollments by subject specialty, sex, and race/ethnic group. NCES should
collect and disseminate these indicators of what is in the pipeline-potential
additions to teacher supply in the next one or two years.
· National data on the number of rzew certipcants by type (traditional,
emergency, or alternative programs and by subject annually compiled from
state certification board data. Different states have different certification
practices and categories. It should be possible for NCES to get com-
parable totals, however, for aggregated categories (mathematics, science,
elementary, secondary, for example) and to present disaggregated data
when available. Since teachers may be certified in more than one category,
these data will not be perfectly matched with the increase in the supply of
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
newly qualified teachers. Rather, these data provide an upper bound on
the change in newly qualified supply.
· Information on the degree of reciprocity in certification across states.
These data help to indicate the extent to which shortages in one part of
the country could be filled by additional teachers from elsewhere. The
National Association of State Directors of Teacher Education and Certifi-
cation (NASDTEC) publishes states' reciprocity provisions periodically in
its Manual on Certification. It would be useful to include this information
in NCES's Digest of Education Statistics. The effect of reciprocity on the
mobility of the reserve pool is an issue for research.
Data collected at the state or local level on the extent to which teachers
are employed who hold temporary, provisional, or emergency certificates. The
SASS teacher questionnaire will collect this information. The data should
be analyzed by subject, by region, or by type of area (e.g., rural, suburban,
urban, or central city). These data may indicate exhaustion of the reserve
pool or a shortage in a particular subject or in a particular geographic area.
SASS also asks districts for the number of full-time equivalent positions,
by subject, that remained vacant or were filled by a substitute or withdrawn
for lack of a suitable candidate. SASS collects the total for these three
categories but does not provide disaggregated data. Information on the
reasons for employing teachers with these categories of certificates could
be obtained through in-depth discussions with school district officials on a
regular basis, as the panel recommends at the end of this chapter.
· Data on the use of alternative programs for earning certification to
teach. In response to perceived shortages in the quantity or quality of
teachers in general, or in some cases of teachers of particular subjects, a
growing number of initiatives providing alternative or nontraditional routes
to certification have recently been created. The extent to which science
and mathematics teachers obtained their certification through an alternative
program and the distribution of such teachers geographically and among
urban, suburban, and rural schools should be monitored closely, through a
question that can readily be added to SASS.
.
Follow-up data on new certificants to ascertain the numbers and pro-
portions of new certificants who did not immediately take teaching positions.
Such data would probe for reasons behind their decisions, alternative ac-
tivities chosen, and salaries, if possible. The Survey of Recent College
Graduates is one possible source of data, as is its successor, the Baccalau-
reate and Beyond Longitudinal Study, which is expected to provide data in
the future.
3.
*.
New hires and incentives to teach
Comparative salary data to indicate competitiveness of teachers'
salaries relative to those of alternative nonteaching positions. Although
there is a question of just how this comparison should be made, one simple
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPOR~UNlTIES
163
measure would be starting salaries in industry for people with equivalent
education (e.g., a B.S. in mathematics). The College Placement Council
(1988) publishes these data annually.
*e Data on reasons why teachers selected their current school/distrzct
and alternative offers they had. Such data (not currently collected by the
SASS teacher surveys or the NLS teaching supplement) would help identify
actions that schools or districts might take to attract well-qualified teachers.
(Note that, if there is a national shortage, it is not clear that such actions
would increase the national supply of teachers rather than the attractiveness
of a particular school/district.)
*a The number of last year's certificants, by type of certificate, who were
hired (or received a firm job offer) by school district and the proportion of
those who applied for positions and were hired. These data, which can be
collected from college placement offices, provide an indicator of the extent
to which school districts draw from the pool of newly certified teachers,
rather than teachers from the reserve pool. Inclusion of racial/ethnic data
would help monitor the progress of minorities through the pipeline.
· Ifend data obtained from districts on the ratio of the number of
applicants to vacancies in teaching' by field, and on the ratio of job offers per
hire, by field. Questions on the number of applicants and the number of
job offers per vacancy could be added to the SASS survey. Although an
applicant may apply for more than one vacancy, a decline in this indicator
(assuming no change in recruitment practices) would point to increasing
shortages of applicants in a particular field. Similarly, an increase in the
number of job offers per vacancy could indicate a shortage or the need to
make the positions more attractive.
· Data from school districts (building on SASS) on the extent to which
districts are shifting from screening applicants to recmiting, disaggregated by
subject and by race/ethnic group. When teachers are in surplus, districts
recruit near home (if at all) and passively accept applications that are
then screened. As shortages arise, districts recruit more vigorously. Thus,
if it were possible to count the number of districts engaging in active
recruiting without significant measurement error, it would be an indicator
of shortage, and growth in such an indicator over time would indicate
increasing shortage. Current SASS school district questionnaires ask about
screening generally, but not by subject, nor do they ask about recruiting.
Because of the difficulty of quantifying recruiting, this topic should be
explored more thoroughly by in-depth discussions with a sample of school
districts.
· Recruitment data from personnel directors of school systems and Tom
college and university placement directors that identify fields of shortage as they
perceive them. Such data could highlight teaching fields for which normal
supply is not adequate. Expansion of recruitment areas and changes in
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PRECOrr EGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
practices such as early offers or bonuses might indicate the severity of the
prospective shortage. Widespread reporting by many personnel officers and
many placement officers of the need for teachers in a field might indicate
a potential area of shortage. However, such a need would have to persist
for several years before being classified as a shortage. Recruitment data
should be collected by the geographic area covered, by subject, and by the
race/ethnicity of recruits.
4. The reserve pool
Because the reserve pool is such a major source of new hires, it is
important to know not only how large it is, but the content and size of its
various components, its size in different states or regions of a state, and
whether it is nearly exhausted in the area of the relevant labor market.
From the panel's viewpoint, all the approaches under this topic are high
priority because so much hiring is from the reserve pool. Knowing the char-
acteristics of the types of people in the reserve pool is important, for some
individuals would not reenter teaching under any conditions. Different
components of the reserve pool can be expected to behave differently.
A variety of approaches could be taken to measure the supply potential
of segments of the reserve pool:
*. Follow new college graduates over lime to determine the proportion
that enter teaching by the number of years after graduation, reasons for
leaving teaching, time spent out of teaching, and reentry into teaching.
Data from the longitudinal studies High School and Beyond and NELS:88
provide opportunities for studying the reserve pool from this perspective.
Data on teaching status one year after graduation are available from the
Recent College Graduates (RCG) surveys carried out periodically with a
sample of recent graduates, most of whom prepared for teaching. A promis-
ing future data source will be the Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal
Study, which is scheduled to replace the RCG in 1994.
*. New hires from the reserve pool can be tracked backward to study
their career histories prior to entering or reentering teaching. The SASS
teacher survey instrument will provide data on age of entry or reentry, time
spent away from teaching, what new hires were doing before they took
teaching positions, and subject areas taught. Components of the reserve
pool that can be covered in this way include both reentrants and people
who were certified but had not taught. Monitored over time, these data
will begin to shed light on the extent to which the reserve pool is adequate
or exhausted for certain subject areas or geographic areas.
*. Back persons certified by a given state who are not currently teaching
in that state. Such persons constitute an important component of the re-
serve pool at the state level. Using data from state certification files, some
states can track certificants who still live in the state and can characterize
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
165
that segment of the reserve pool by age, subject specialty, and years
of past teaching experience. A survey could determine their interest in
teaching or incentives that would encourage them to teach. Studies of
teacher supply and demand in Massachusetts (Massachusetts Institute for
Social and Economic Research, 1987) and Connecticut (Connecticut State
Department of Education, 1985b) illustrate the use of certification data to
estimate the size of this component of the reserve pool.
5. Attrition rates and incentives to leave teaching
*e School data on amition rates. Data from schools on the distribution
of teachers by age, race/ethnicity, sex, and disciplinary area, as well as
attrition levels within these categories. Attrition should be classified by
retirement or other cause.
The best prospect for obtaining some of these data is probably SASS,
which included an attrition-by-field question in the base year survey; the
data, however, are of poor quality. The panel urges NCES to simplify the
SASS matrix questions on attrition to improve response and to collect these
data on a continuing basis. The school questionnaire should be able to
separate attrition due to moving to another school or district from leaving
the teaching profession completely and reducing the national supply of
teachers.
*. Incentives to leave teaching Overall changes in supply are affected
by factors that make teaching more or less attractive compared with other
occupations. The periodic SASS follow-up surveys of former teachers
should provide data on the reasons for attrition on a national scale and
increase understanding of the behavioral components of teacher attrition
and mobility. SASS should also collect information on salary scales, which
could be analyzed in conjunction with salaries in other occupations to learn
more about the competitiveness of teachers' salaries to opportunity cost
salaries.
· Information from schools on separation rates of teachers by field
of study. These data, which are being collected by SASS, are needed to
understand the effect of separations on the teaching force for different
fields of study.
· Information Mom states on teacher retirement policies. Such data
would be helpful for use in research on the relation among attrition rates,
portability of teacher pensions, and retirement policies. (SASS asks districts
about the minimum age, years of service, and penalty for early retirement
associated with their retirement plans.) However, knowing state retire-
ment policies does not answer the question fully, since teachers are often
covered by various combinations of state, district, and union retirement
plans.
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
Data Related to Quality
The notion of "enough" science and mathematics teachers must be
understood in qualitative terms. Therefore, it is imperative to gather data
that indicate aspects of quality. Little information exists that helps to
define or measure quality at present. Although we do not know what
constitutes good teaching, one of the issues is to find out what goes into
good teaching. We attempted in Chapter 5 to sort out major ingredients of
teacher and teaching quality that call for further data. Better measurement
of these ingredients may help identify measures of quality. One group of
such components includes school system hiring policies and practices and
school-level conditions that can affect quality. A second group of aspects
involves the qualifications of newly hired teachers. To provide indicators
of aspects of the qualify of teachers and their work environments, the panel
recommends that the data listed below be collected and monitored over time.
1. School system factors that affect quality. It is critical to build a
foundation of data about school and district practices that have effects on
quality. The panel recommends obtaining the following data, in order of
priority:
*. Hiring practices, including timing of offers, and constraints such as
internal transfer rules. SASS does not provide data related to these areas;
information may be better obtained through in-depth discussions with a
sample of districts (as recommended at the end of this chapter).
*. Data describing inservice education, laboratory materials, and collegial
and administrative support for teachers in place. School principals and school
district officials are probably the best source. The one-time administrative
and teacher survey of the High School and Beyond Survey conducted in
1984 was designed to provide such data at the national level. SASS and the
NSF surveys of science and mathematics education could be the vehicles
for data collection, with important design input from in-depth conferences
with districts. The presence of support systems allows teachers to be better
teachers and can attract new entrants to the profession; however, they are
costly. There may be a trade-off between increasing salary and increasing
nonsalary support, for example.
*. School practices related to time use, class size, teaching load, level of
autonomy, opportunities for collaboration and decision making, salary, and
other monetary incentives. Information on such school practices may be
relatively easy to obtain from teachers or principals through existing survey
programs, particularly the SASS school administrator and teacher question-
naires. Other sources include the teacher questionnaires for NAEP science
and mathematics assessments, NELS:88, the High School and Beyond ad-
ministrative and teacher survey, and the SASS follow-up survey of teachers
who remain in teaching.
' t ~ . . . _ _
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORI UNITIES
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*e Teacher assignment or mzsassignment, by subject, including incidence
of out-of-peld leaching and use of temporary or emergency certification. (These
data were previously recommended to understand supply.) This informa-
tion, available from the SASS teacher questionnaire, together with the
survey's information on filling difficult vacancies, state certification data,
and in-depth discussions with school districts as recommended presently,
can be used to measure the prevalence of these types of assignments.
· Idenufiraiion by school districts of the major criteria used in teacher
selection, by subject, and the weight given to each criterion. In response to a
surplus, districts may change the weighting of their criteria, putting more
emphasis on formal credentials and depth of course background, in order
to make screening easier. However, this kind of information is likely to be
difficult to obtain; it may vary greatly depending on the subject or students
to be taught. Data collection should be initiated as a research activity rather
than by initiating a statistical time series. SASS asks a general question on
the use of certain baseline criteria, but collects no data as recommended
here.
2. Qualifications of teachers. There are a number of ways to measure
and assess teacher qualifications. Some are objective and can be counted;
some are subjective and not easily quantified. Some are easily quantified but
useful only as a baseline for minimum qualification (such as certification);
some require more examination but would also be more informative (such
as transcripts). Some indicators can be based on existing standards (such
as those of the NSTA), and some on proposed standards (such as those of
the Holmes group).
While the recommendations presented here are clearly difficult to
implement, a beginning must be made. Data should be collected to in-
dicate the presence and strength of teacher qualifications so that more
sophisticated studies to measure the effect of teachers' knowledge can be
carried out. Thus, the following kinds of data are recommended in order
of priority.
*. Certification data as an indication of a minimum or baseline level
of qualifications. We note that NCES has implemented the following
recommendation from the panel's interim report and urge them to continue
this practice:
'We recommend that the Center for Education Statistics surveys of
teachers regularly include measures of certification Type and sub
ject fields) and that the Center obtain and disseminate available
information on state certification policies and practices."
However, certification data should be distinguished not only by type
of certification, as the SASS teacher questionnaire now does, but also
by whether certification was earned through an alternative certification
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
working conditions, availability of other jobs in the labor market area,
cost of educational training, and state and local policies for educational
professional personnel. These behavioral factors affect not only the actual
supply of teachers, but also the retention of current teachers. These
behavioral factors are particularly important because many of them are
levers that policy makers can use to change the supply of teachers. Much
can be learned from in-depth conferences with school district officials,
which we recommend at the end of this chapter. Recommended studies of
the erect of these behavioral factors are listed below in order of priority.
*1. Incentives that affect individual decisions to enter teaching' to leave
teaching and move to a different occupation, or to retire. For the first,
what are the effects of salary, working conditions, location, alternative
nonteaching opportunities, etc., on the decision to accept an offer to teach
and on the overall acceptance rates? For the second, what are the effects of
salary, instructional support, working conditions, alternative opportunities,
etc., on whether, and when in the career cycle, one decides to leave and
on the overall retention rates of teachers? For the third, research is
needed on the relationship between state separation rates for retirement
and individual reasons for retiring, external shock variables, and incentives
and disincentives for retention and retirement. Related issues are the effect
of separation rates on individual school districts and on the teaching force
for different fields of study.
*2. Supply potential of the reserve pool and supply. Because the re-
serve pool is one of the two major sources of teachers, and because the
other source- new certificants is decreasing in number, research to as-
sess the supply potential of the reserve pool is of increasing importance.
Studies of the reserve pool might include the effects of incentives, such
as salary increases, on attracting individuals from the reserve pool. 1b
determine whether entry rates to teaching from the reserve pool are in-
fluenced by salary increases, districts that have had large salary increases
(e.g., Rochester) could be studied. Another example: What are the effects
of limited mobility of teachers in the reserve pool on the supply potential
of the reserve pool? It appears that in general individuals are willing to
move only a small distance to accept a teaching position. A study of the
labor markets for urban areas, suburban areas, small towns, and rural areas
could help determine what that distance is. These examples are only a few
among numerous important aspects of the reserve pool in need of research.
*3. School districts experiencing supply/demand problems. The infor-
mation collected in SASS can be used to identify such school districts for
special studies. The supply and demand situation for science and math-
ematics teachers is likely to be quite different in different geographic or
labor market regions (e.g., inner city, rural, or high-income suburban).
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORlrUNlTIES
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Examination of subsamples of districts, including in-depth inquiries, can
produce valuable special reports if done on a timely basis. They may pro-
vide information for policy use in ameliorating the problems, and they can
also help determine appropriate categories for disaggregation of data in
publications. The NCES district conferences we recommend later in this
chapter can be designed to coordinate with the study of particular groups
of districts.
4. Allematzve career decisions that minored college students and grad-
uate students are making Why are fewer such students obtaining degrees
to teach? Why are they choosing other positions rather than teaching
jobs? Why are they leaving teaching? Research should probe into the
first two questions to identify the alternatives minorities choose and the
perceived opportunity costs that draw them away from teaching science or
mathematics. Such knowledge can help form strategies to attract minorities
into teaching and, indirectly, to increase the overall supply pool. The last
question could be addressed with data from the SASS questionnaires. The
best data source for the earlier question is the set of follow-up surveys of
the NLS-72.
5. Elect of increasing certi~aiion requirements on the incentive to
obtain a teaching certificate or to apply for a teaching position.
6. Incentives that attracted the recipients of NSF's Presidential Science
Awards to teaching and those that keep them in the teaching profession. The
professional development activities of the recipients of mathematics awards
have been studied (Yamashita, 1987~.
Quality
Neither teacher quality nor teaching quality is a term that lends itself
readily to precise definition. Teacher quality refers to the knowledge, skill,
and general ability level of the teacher. We believe that measurement
of teacher quality is important because some of the measures of teacher
quality seem to be important factors in determining who goes into teaching
and who finds better opportunities elsewhere. Thus teacher quality is an
important variable in teacher supply models, and we need to understand the
responsiveness of teacher quality to incentives. Obviously, teacher quality
is determined in part by the quality of teacher preparation programs; the
issue is the degree to which these programs prepare teachers to be effective
pedagogues in transmitting knowledge about mathematics or science.
Teaching quality is also of direct concern to the panel, since it is a
direct measure of the degree to which a teacher of mathematics or science
is able in the school setting to lead students to a better understanding of
mathematics or science. Teaching quality, as we see it, derives from several
sources and can be measured by different types of data pertaining to the
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND M4THEMAT CS TEACHERS
school setting in which classroom teaching takes place. Teaching quality
is affected by school and district policies and practices, such as selection
of teaching materials, allocation of time to various subjects, availability of
laboratory facilities, and the teacher's degree of autonomy in the classroom.
It is also affected by curricular structure and processes and by teacher
characteristics such as subject matter competence and ability to facilitate
learning, which in turn are affected by the quality of teacher training.
A frequently used measure of teacher quality is teacher qualifications-
courses taken, credentials received, etc. While we recognize' that there
is some link between teacher qualifications and both teacher quality and
teaching quality, it is the panel's view that the linkage is apt to be loose
rather than tight; again, that is clearly a topic for research.
In the course of panel discussions on these issues, we noted several
studies related to teacher quality or teaching quality that could be pursued,
and we list them in order of priority.
*1. Study the effectiveness of practices that schools and school districts
have employed to improve quali~-for example, the mentor schools in edu-
cation in Dade County, Florida.
*2. Examine the inservice trainingpractices for science and mathematics
teachers that are provided by elementary and secondary schools, to identify
programs that seem to be effective and to understand reasons why some
programs appear to work while others do not.
*3. Andy teachers' transcript records to determine the degree to which
transcripts can be used as an accurate reflection of subject matter knowl-
edge.
*4. Study the methodological curriculum in teacher training institutions
to assess the degree to which these institutions vary in their emphasis on
pedagogical theory compared with pedagogical practice.
5. Compare the academic backgrounds of teachers who leave teaching
and those who stay. (Substudies based on teacher transcripts could be
conducted for teachers identified in the Schools and Staging Survey.)
6. Conduct a follow-up at the schools of the recipients of the Presidential
Awards in Science and Mathematics Teaching to gain insights into factors
that might improve quality at the school level by noting how the award
money was actually spent. The supply-related research issue suggested
above could be coordinated with this in a single research project focusing
on the award recipients.
7. Measure the event of movement of teachers within school systems
from elementary to middle to high school teaching and assess whether
these transitions are eroding the average level of content background for
secondary science and mathematics teachers and for the body of remaining
elementary teachers who do not transfer.
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DATE NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
Student Outcomes
175
Although the focus of the panel's study is on the supply, demand, and
quality of teachers and on the data needed to monitor these phenomena,
it is clear to the panel that their ultimate usefulness lies in the effect
of these characteristics on learning. Thus, it is important to measure
supply, demand, and quality because it is presumed that these factors
are linked to student learning outcomes. But that linkage needs to be
explicit; it constitutes an important area in which substantial research
efforts need to be carried on. Some aspects of research that would attempt
to relate teacher characteristics, school environment variables, and home
environment variables to student outcomes and to recognize the importance
of variation in school outcomes are described below.
1. Teacher character~sacs. Research to date has not shown a clear
link between teacher characteristics and student outcomes. As indicated
in Chapter 5, it appears that verbal ability, the number of mathematics
or science credits, recent educational experience, professional involvement,
years of teaching, and attitudes toward teaching may exhibit some positive
relationship, often weak, to student performance. A better understanding
of the relationship between teacher characteristics and student outcomes
is needed. As a start toward research on this issue, the National Assess-
ment of Educational Progress (NAEP) teacher questionnaire for 7th- and
Ilth-grade science and mathematics teachers, from the latest science and
mathematics assessment (in 1985-86) can be studied, in conjunction with
their students' science and mathematics NAEP test scores. The next NAEP
science and mathematics assessment is planned for 1990. In addition, the
National Education Longitudinal Study of 19~ (NELSON) includes mea-
sures of student outcomes together with a set of teacher characteristics and
characteristics of schools and districts. For the research to be more mean-
ingful, measures should be obtained through records such as transcripts
rather than through survey questions.
2. School environment factors. Research should also be concerned
with school environment factors that can affect student outcomes, for ex-
ample, the constraints placed on teachers by school or district practices
such as the degree of mentoring provided to new teachers, teachers' op-
portunities to interact with other teachers, and the allocation of classroom
hours among mathematics, science, and other subjects.
3. Home environment variables. Learning is influenced not only by
teacher and teaching characteristics, but also-and perhaps primarily-by the
characteristics of the student's home environment. Before learning takes
place in formal school settings, it takes place in the home, and home
environments continue to play a role in student learning throughout the
entire developmental process. Thus, incorporating the influence of home
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PRECO! J EGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
environment variables (e.g., time spent by parents with children and the
beliefs and expectations of parents for their children) in studies of student
outcomes is crucial to understanding the true influence of teachers and
teaching factors on learning.
4. Vanation in school outcomes. The objective of school is to facilitate
learning and, from the perspective of the panel, to promote learning
in science and mathematics. But from that perspective, facilitation can
mean either improving the average outcome or reducing the variation in
outcomes. These objectives can sometimes conflict, and part of what most
people mean by effective teaching is to find ways to increase the minimum
that all students master while not restricting the opportunities of the more
able or the more rapid learners. Much existing research has focused largely
on the influence of schools on average outcomes, and has not recognized
the importance of variation in outcomes.
*The panel recommends that further research be conducted on the rela-
tionship of measurable characteristics of teachers of mathematics and science
and home and school environmental factors to educational outcomes of stu-
dents in these fields. This research should explore variation in outcomes as
well as average outcomes.
Although we recognize the difficulty of conducting controlled experi-
ments in education, we believe such experiments could be particularly useful
in studying the relationship between measurable teacher qualifications and
student outcomes.
RESEARCH FACILITATION
Educational research is carried out by a number of constituencies:
federal, state and local government, research organizations under contract
to the government, and academic institutions. Research carried out by
governments or research organizations is normally designed to answer
specific questions. For example, a research organization is given a grant or
contract to study the usefulness of indicators in education.
Graduate Student Research
Research at academic institutions is carried out in the form of doctoral
dissertations or by faculty interested in particular aspects that relate to a
specific area of knowledge. For example, a doctoral candidate whose field of
interest is gender may be interested in determining gender differences with
respect to mathematics background for teachers. The number of doctoral
dissertations is large and reflects a rich source of highly trained individuals.
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUN17~ ES
177
In order to attract this group to work on problems of educational interest,
student support should be available.
*The panel recommends that the Office of Educational Research and
Improvement within the Department of Education create a program of doctoral
graduate student support (training grantsj in education statistics.
The training grant program in the health sciences (biostatistics) has
been very successful in attracting to the field of biostatistics a large number
of individuals, many of whom are currently employed by the National
Institutes of Health, other health organizations, and the pharmaceutical
industry. This has changed the level of sophistication in these fields and
permitted studies to answer questions on the health status of our society.
A comparable program in education statistics could bring to education a
parallel group of talented researchers.
Data Bases for Personal Computers
~ carry out a doctoral dissertation related to teacher quality or models
of teacher supply and demand, access to relevant data is needed.
The panel recommends that data from education agencies and studies
relating to education be made available in the forte of tapes of the complete
data sets, as well as user-friendly disks of data samples.
It is particularly important that the documentation be understandable
to the researcher without too great an investment of time. An analysis of
a large data set can be a very time-intensive process, often taking a year
to complete. Such a required time expenditure would not permit graduate
students sufficiently ready access for use on a dissertation.
Small data sets should be made available for classroom and textbook
use. This would have the effect of making education data more visible to
a wider audience and ensuring more extensive analysis of the information.
State Data Bases
The national data bases we have described, as valuable as they will
be, will not detail state labor markets or labor markets by field of study.
Studies by Murnane and his colleagues (1988, 1989) show that when data
are desired for longer time periods or for variables beyond those collected
in these national studies, or when greater disaggregation is needed, state
data bases become the most useful existing resource. For this reason,
the panel surveyed the state education agencies (SEAs) concerning their
available data files on public school professional personnel. The results
of this survey are summarized in Appendix C. The appendix shows the
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
earliest date for which data are available and the availability of selected
data items. In Massachusetts, the Massachusetts Institute for Social and
Economic Research (MISER) used files of the state certification board and
the state retirement system to study the supply and demand for teachers
in the state of Massachusetts. This study is being expanded to all states in
the New England region.
There are indications in state studies by Murnane and his colleagues
and in Heyns' analysis of the NLS data (1988) that there are large differ-
ences between elementary and secondary teachers in career paths, decisions
to stay in teaching, and patterns of reentry to teaching. The studies by
Murnane and his colleagues also indicate that both states and fields of
study show differences along these variables. The studies are also useful
in showing how to combine single-year record tapes of state agencies into
multiyear career history files, making it possible to study the attrition and
retention of teachers.
Limitations of Univariate Indicators
The panel sounds a note of caution about interpretation of univariate
indicators of quality and about analyses that fail to consider the context in
which quality is measured. The quality of science and mathematics instruc-
tion is multifaceted, and single variables are best studied in a multifaceted
context.
An indicator of quality is offered as an example. Membership in
mathematics or science teacher professional associations, attendance at
workshops sponsored by these associations, and payments by school dis-
tricts for advanced training in teachers' specialties during the summer are
univariate indicators that appear amenable to data collection. Although it
would seem that these are measures of quality, that may not always be the
case. If these data are cross-classified by district characteristics, they might
indicate differences. Whether or not these differences are differences in
quality is a moot point. For instance, districts with small enrollment might
support advanced training in the summer to compensate for the isolation
of their teachers. Districts with high socioeconomic status might do so
to reward their outstanding teachers. Still other school districts finding it
difficult to recruit teachers might offer such training as an incentive for
hiring, as is done by the Dade County and New York City school districts.
This leads to a caution about interpretation of univariate indicators
of quality and about policy analysis that fails to account for their value
by considering the context in which quality is measured. Frequently cited
measures of science education quality are the number of physics courses
offered by a high school and the number of teachers certified to teach
physics. Alternatively, frequently cited measures of low quality are the
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
179
number of physics courses taught by an out-of-field teacher certified in
another physical science or the absence of physics courses. Under this
definition, a large proportion of the high schools in this country would be
rated as of low quality in science education, and a large proportion of the
nation's students attend these schools.
Before making a policy prescription it is important to classify districts
by characteristics that may affect the behavior observed. The low score
on this measure is attributable to the low enrollment size of these schools,
which is too small to support a full-time physics teacher. In this-example,
size was an intervening variable, which should lead us to expect split
teaching assignments and few courses in physics in small high schools and
to consider policy initiatives appropriate to small schools. Obviously, the
explanation for the low score on this quality measure small schools-does
not change the low score nor does it change the quality of the part-time
teachers.
As another example of the caution needed in using univariate indica-
tors, high achievement test scores have often been associated with schools
in high socioeconomic neighborhoods. Analysts might find a high corre-
lation between some educational practice or teacher background variable
and student achievement. The teacher background variable might relate
to the practice. The high socioeconomic neighborhood attracts teachers
with the background variable. A multiple regression would indicate that
all three variables socioeconomic neighborhood, teacher background, and
educational practice relate to high achievement test scores. If only one of
these variables is studied, the explained variance will be overstated. Quality
instruction in science and mathematics is multifaceted, and single variables
are best studied in a multifaceted context.
FACILITATION OF INFORMATION EXCHANGE AMONG
DISTRICTS, STATES, AND THE NCES
As evident throughout the report, the activities the panel carried out
to obtain information about the flow of teachers and the quality of teachers
in individual school districts influenced our thinking in many ways. The
16,000 school districts in this country operate relatively independently. The
staffing problems they encounter vary widely, and the actions taken by
district superintendents and personnel directors to address these problems-
are both innovative and varied. Both applicants and school systems have
effective means of coping with the uncertainty of budgets and contracts
and adjusting to institutional barriers (e.g., use of the substitute pool to
stockpile place-bound potential teachers, use of graduate students to teach
part time, cooperative arrangements with local industry). Much of the
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
information about school district actions to address staging problems will
not be captured by the SASS. A few illustrations follow.
New York City has hundreds of science and mathematics teachers
who are teaching out of field, but not because of a teacher shortage.
The school principals have not requested replacements for these teachers
because they are effective in working with students in inner-city schools,
whereas the ability of certified replacements to control the classroom is an
unknown. Yet incidence of out-of-field teaching is one of the measures of
shortage in use.
The personnel officer of a middle-sized Texas district asserts firmly
that the district has no shortage of science and mathematics teachers, and
yet they rely heavily on an aggressive national recruiting program.
· The panel selected a pair of adjacent districts in Maryland for
in-depth case studies because it was thought they would draw on the same
labor market. In fact the large urban district recruited at numerous job
fairs (occasions at which as many as 20 teacher-training institutions gather
their graduates on one campus for a one- or two-day meeting) in areas as
far away as Illinois, Michigan, northern New York, and North Carolina.
The smaller, semirural district recruited in rural areas of the state and
neighboring states. The more rural district was looking for teachers who
would be content to live in a rural area and whose values would be similar
to those held by the community.
· The nature and timing of collective bargaining increases the dif-
ficulty of making accurate demand projections. Since many contracts are
negotiated in late spring or during the summer, and since clauses typically
offer benefits like improved health care provisions to any teachers under
contract on the date the agreement is signed, teachers who intend to resign
wait until the contract is completed before giving notice. This leads to an
underestimate of attrition for demand projections.
· Hiring is a year-round process for the seven large districts that
participated in the panel's conference, and "demand" is not a static number
that measures need only in the fall of each year. In fact these districts do
only about half of their hiring for September.
· The Dade County School System found that widespread recruit-
ment was not as successful as anticipated. Although they recruited success-
fully in the northern tier of states, retention was a problem because the
new recruits could not cope with the multicultural student body, the heat,
the lack of seasons, and homesickness.
The case studies and the conference of personnel directors vividly
demonstrated to the panel the diversity of practices and styles and the
diversity of labor market situations that characterize the nation's school
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DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
181
districts. The panel believes that NCES could profit from frequent inter-
actions with school district personnel and could play a valuable role as
a broker between data producers and data users in the states. A useful
mechanism for such interaction would be conferences of district and/or
state personnel. At least three types of conferences are envisioned:
1. An annual conference structured to help NCES in design and
analysis of SASS. Attendees at this conference would be a mix of district
superintendents and personnel directors from districts in the SASS sample.
The group should be small enough (7-10 individuals) to permit roundtable
discussion. The district personnel would be asked to discuss what is going
on in the district with respect to teacher supply, demand, and quality that
is not revealed by the data on the SASS forms. This information could
be used to provide a framework for analysis of SASS data and caveats to
accompany the analysis, and possibly to identify items that should be added
to or deleted from the SASS forms.
2. A conference designed to facilitate analysis of teacher supply and
demand at the state and district levels. Attendees would be state personnel
who prepare supply-and-demand models and individuals experienced with
modeling who would be sensitive to implicit assumptions in the models that
might not be appropriate for use in some states. An exchange of ideas
among these individuals could lead to improvements in state models and in
models that states prepare for their individual districts. (When the panel
convened the conference of personnel directors from large school districts,
we were surprised to learn that these individuals had never met, yet they had
problems that were unique to big districts in both nature and magnitude.
One of the major benefits of the meeting to them was the opportunity to
share problems and solutions. The conference was of sufficient value to
them that they have instituted an annual meeting involving a larger number
of districts.)
3. A conference designed to stimulate communication between state
data producers and district data users. The conference of personnel direc-
tors of large school districts provided a striking example of the potential
benefit of such conferences. The personnel director from New York City
suggested that it would be helpful to have some central organization collect
and disseminate information on the number of persons enrolled in teacher
training programs, by institution, as contrasted with the currently available
data on education majors. One of the panel members knew that the de-
sired information is currently collected by the state education agency and
arranged to send it to the district.
Brief reports of the conferences should be prepared so that districts and
states that were not represented among the conferees could also benefit
from the exchange of ideas.
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND ANATHEMA TICS TEACHERS
By maintaining frequent contact with the individuals who make the
decisions that affect teachers, much can be learned about the flow of
teachers through the school system, and the quality adjustments made in
this flow by aggressive recruiting, raising or lowering standards in hiring,
providing inse~vice training, and using incentives to attract and retain
teachers.
*The panel recommends that the National Center for Education Statistics
convene (a) an annual conference of dissect personnel who are responsible
for the decisions that affect teacher Apply, demand, and quality to maintain
an awareness of the current~issues in teacher supply and demand; (b) periodic
conferences of state personnel who prepare state and local supply and demand
projections to facilitate improvement in these models; and (c) occasional
conferences to promote communication between state personnel who produce
relevant data and district personnel who would find these data useful in
their recruitment activities and in development of dissect policies concerning
teachers.
The panel learned much from the interaction with district personnel.
We believe that staff of the National Center for Education Statistics would
find it equally rewarding and that the center's surveys and analyses would
be enriched by such interaction.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
reserve pool
