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4
Monitoring the Supply Pool
of Science and Mathematics Teachers
In this chapter we look at the models used at the national and state
levels for projecting the supply of teachers for the next year, the components
of these models, and what we would like to know to monitor more effectively
the supply pool and its components.
The models examined in the panel's interim report (National Research
Council, 1987c) were the projection model used by NCES and the teacher
supply and demand models and projections developed in six states: Cal-
ifornia, Colorado, Illinois, New York Florida, and South Carolina. They
. . .. ~
~ ~ J
are most commonly projection models, which attempt to project teacher
sun~lv and demand and reach conclusions about surpluses or shortfalls of
teachers at a point in the future.
Useful models should incorporate four major characteristics. The first
is behavioral content, by which we mean models of relationships between
variables in the environment and the behavior of actors in the education
system. An example of a behavioral component in a model of teacher
supply would be the estimated impact of salaries and working conditions
on the decision of teachers to continue or to leave teaching. The models
examined are limited by the lack of behavioral content. The second major
characteristic of useful models is disaggregation by geographic area and
subject field, and the third is quality measurement. Some of the models
examined in our interim report incorporate useful refinements, such as
the use of age-specific and field-specific attrition rates in projections of
continuing teachers. But one key problem is a lack of useful geographic
disaggregation. Moreover, only about half the state models examined
disaggregated data by subject field). Nor do models deal in a satisfactory
manner with the issue of quality. When models consider this dimension at
all, the definition of a qualified teacher is equated with certification.
92
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MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
93
Finally, useful supply models should include all the sources of supply.
Among the state models and the National Center for Education Statistics
model that were the central focus of the panel's interim report, none
provides what we regard as a detailed analysis of the contribution of the
various components of potential teacher supply. Most of the models ignore
supply sources other than newly certified teachers or some equivalent. The
NCES model until recently limited projections of new entrants to new
graduates of teacher training programs. Other definitions that are used in
state models include students enrolled in the state's education programs
and the number of newly certified persons. NCES and some state models
have more recently broadened the components of the teacher supply pool.
Among these state models, the California PACE model (Cagampang
et al., 1986) represents the most fully developed analysis on the supply
side, with projections of the supply of new entrants from four sources:
(1) new or recent graduates of California credentialing programs, (2) new
credential holders from out of state, (3) teachers entering from the reserve
pool of nonteaching credential holders, and (4) college graduates who
pass the California Basic Educational Skills Test and obtain emergency
credentials. Because of inadequate data sources and the lack of knowledge
of the supply behavior of the various new entrant components, however, the
PACE model relies largely on extrapolations of historical hiring patterns in
the state, which are not the same as projections based on behavioral supply
relationships
Overall, it is the panel's view that current models of teacher supply
and demand have very limited usefulness for defining education policy and
consist of little more than plausible extrapolations of relationships that are
largely based on cohort survival techniques on both the demand and the
supply sides. None of the models has any serious behavioral content-
i.e., on the relationship between changes in circumstances (e.g. salary,
working conditions, pension benefits, economic recession) and changes in
the numbers and kinds of people interested in obtaining teaching positions
or in the numbers and kinds of teachers demanded by school systems. Since
much of the research needed to incorporate behavioral content in supply
models has not been done, the panel considers monitoring supply to be
the best course of action. By monitoring supply we mean gathering data
relevant to teacher supply periodically and monitoring trends in the data.
In the short run, efforts are needed to improve the consistency, scope, and
quantity of data available for monitoring teacher supply. Concurrent with
monitoring, research should be conducted to support behavioral models.
As research findings on the relation between the incentives discussed in the
preceding chapter and supply become available and the relevant data bases
are developed, resources can be devoted to behavioral modeling. This
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
chapter assesses the data that are now or could be collected to monitor the
supply situation of science and mathematics teachers in this country.
MONITORING POINTS ALONG THE SUPPLY PIPELINE
The number of teachers employed in schools nationwide is augmented
each year by new graduates from teacher training programs, newly certified
teachers who enter teaching from other pathways (such as collaborative
arrangements with industry), and previously certified teachers who are not
teaching but have chosen to reenter the profession. The number of teachers
employed is diminished by attrition due to retirement and other causes.
Thus, monitoring supply requires keeping track of changes in the supply
pool over its various stages. It requires data on certification, on incentives
that motivate people to apply for or accept teaching positions, on new
hires, and on attrition and retention rates.
NCES recognized the importance of statistics to monitor teacher supply
and demand in the United States and initiated the Schools and Staffing
Survey (SASS), an integrated set of questionnaires that are designed to
provide several of the types of information sought. SASS is described in
greater detail in Appendix B. along with descriptions of other national data
sets. The first SASS questionnaires (for school districts, schools, school
administrations, and teachers) were fielded in school year 1987-88. A
follow-up survey, of all teachers in the base year who left teaching and a
subsample of teachers who remained in teaching (both those who remained
in the same school and those who moved to another school), was conducted
in the 1988-89 school year. Thus, not only are current teachers included in
SASS; there is follow-up information from subsets of teachers who left and
teachers who remained. If SASS produces the data sought, the survey will
provide the most valuable data related to teacher supply and demand the
nation has had. As with all new surveys, some skepticism is In order about
the ability of SASS to meet all its goals.
A useful way to envision components of supply that should be mon-
itored is to identify stages along a pipeline, as outlined in Chapter 3. At
the beginning stage are college students planning to teach. The pipeline
progresses through degrees earned and certification, the decision to enter
teaching, through retention and attrition rates.
One could add high school students' aspirations to become teachers
at the very beginning of such a pipeline. However, although a high school
student's expression of interest in a future career generally indicates the de-
gree of regard for that kind of career or calling, it Is probably not a reliable
indicator of actual career choice. The Office of Technology Assessment's
1988 report, Elementary and Secondary Education for Science and Eng~neer-
ing, usefully describes a pipeline model that includes precollege students'
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MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
95
views of and preparations for science and engineering careers (O~ce of
Technology Assessment, 1988:6-20~. It is used descriptively, however, and
not for statistical modeling purposes. It states (p.6) that "students' inten-
tions remain volatile until well past high school, with substantial numbers
entering the pipeline (by choosing science and engineering majors) by their
sophomore year of college." For purposes of monitoring data and gener-
ating information on the supply of science and mathematics teachers that
could possibly be used in models, we begin the pipeline at the college level.
College Students Planning to Teach
The proportions of students enrolled in postsecondary education who
are majoring in education; in mathematics; in computer science; in physical,
biological, and earth sciences; and in engineering are key components of
the supply of science and mathematics teachers at this early stage of the
pipeline. The number of education majors is in decline, and many who
may wish to teach now pursue a subject major. Therefore, monitoring the
number of education majors provides only a partial count of this component
of supply.
To gain a better understanding of the input to the pipeline, it would be
desirable to make fuller use of the data that exist on freshman aspirations.
Data from The American Freshman survey of the population of freshmen
in higher education (described in Appendix B) include intended major and
career aspirations and can be analyzed by sex and ethnicity as well. Data
from the occasional follow-ups of those who have remained in college after
two years and four years could be used to assess the value of freshman
aspirations in judging changes in input to the pipeline. It would also
be useful to have trend data on how many students who majored in the
subjects noted above (subjects that are the most likely source of science and
mathematics teachers) and who planned or did not plan to teach actually
did or did not obtain certificates. The High School and Beyond longitudinal
survey, which began in 1980, and the surveys of Recent College Graduates
(both conducted by NCES and described in Appendix B) can provide these
data for the science and mathematics majors in the samples of students
who were surveyed.
Research conducted by individuals using these data sets can address
issues in focused and informative ways. For example, Maxwell (1986)
used data from The American Freshman and followed a sample of 2,000
freshmen to their junior year, relating their intended majors (education,
not education), intended careers (teaching, not teaching), and declared
major as juniors to their high school grade point average and rank and
college grade point average. His findings (that the group who had not
intended to major in education but planned on a career in education and
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
later declared an education major had higher college grades than did other
groups), although more related to quality, illustrate a wealth of information
that could be used for research into supply questions, by subject major,
at the postsecondary stages of a supply pipeline. In Chapter 6 the panel
recommends measures to make these and other data more accessible to
researchers.
Certification
Certification requirements vary from state to state, and the certification
requirements in one state might not meet the requirements of another state.
In some states a bachelor's degree that includes certain courses carries with
it a teaching certificate. In other states, a year of teacher training beyond
the bachelor's degree is required. In some states, as much as a master's
degree (in teaching or in a subject discipline) is required for certification.
In addition, 21 states now allow alternative certification routes (such as
through a cooperative program with the military), and usually to staff
particular subject areas with shortages (McKibbin, 1988~. The meaning of
national data on the number of certified teachers is somewhat ambiguous
because of the diversity of states' certification requirements.
~ quantify the pipeline leading to certification it is useful to look
at the number of students enrolled in education programs. At present,
the major source of such data is the American Association of Colleges
for Teacher Education (AACTE), an association of approximately 1,200
member colleges and universities that have teacher education programs.
Periodically the AACTE conducts surveys of small samples of member
institutions to obtain data on the numbers of students enrolled in these
programs.
During the panel's May 1988 meeting with personnel officers of seven
large school systems, they suggested that it would be useful to school
districts planning recruitment of teachers to know the number of people in
the pipeline by field. State education agencies should collect data on the
number of students and graduates preparing for certification to teach, by
field and by type of program (i.e., traditional or alternative) and make these
data available to districts on a timely basis. These data are indicators at
one juncture of the pipeline of potential additions to teacher supply within
the next year or two.
Changes in the actual number of graduates awarded certificates to
teach science or mathematics should also be monitored. National data
should be compiled from state certification board data on the number of
new certificants by type (regular, alternative, emergency) and by subject
annually. As noted above, although different states have different certifi-
cation requirements and classifications, it should be possible to estimate
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MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
97
comparable totals for categories such as science and mathematics (elemen-
tary and secondary) and to present disaggregated data when available.
Comparability across states would be more achievable if proposals to
. . . ~ . ~ ~ . . ~ . , ~ ~ ~
standardize certification nationalb through board cert~catlon toescrloea
in Chapter 5) are implemented. Since teachers may be certified in more
than one category, these data will tend to overestimate the increase in the
supply of newly qualified teachers. In fact, these data provide an upper
bound of the change in newly qualified supply.
Information is also needed on the degree of reciprocity in certification
across states. This information can be used to indicate the extent to which
shortages in one part of the country could be filled by additional teachers
from another. The effect of reciprocity is a research issue that relates to the
mobility of the reserve pool. The National Association of State Directors of
Teacher Education and Certification publishes states' reciprocity provisions
periodically in its manual on certification. Reciprocity, too, could cease
to be a problem if current proposals for national board certification of
teachers come to pass.
Large proportions of new graduates of teacher certification programs
do not go on to teach in the state in which they obtained certification.
Why? Follow-up data on new certificants are desirable to ascertain the
numbers and proportions of certificants who did not seek, were not offered,
or did not accept teaching positions offered in their states. The follow-
up questionnaire would probe for reasons why certificants did not teach,
alternatives they pursued, and salaries. The survey of Recent College
Graduates (RCG) is one possible source. It provides national data on
graduates one year after receiving an education degree. The final survey in
this series Is scheduled for 1991, but it will be replaced during the next two
years by a national longitudinal survey of college graduates. States may
also find it valuable to follow their new certificants to understand loss to
the pipeline of teachers at this juncture.
Data on the above aspects of certification would help to answer such
questions as: How have increased state requirements for teacher certifi-
cation affected enrollments in these programs or reentry after a gap in
teaching? 1b what extent do states' restrictions and requirements placed
ran t~.~.h~.r~ moving from another state discourage them from reentering
~ ~ ,^^_ · _^~ O
teaching in the new state?
Another occurrence that should be monitored as a possible indicator of
shortage is the states' use of emergency or provisional teaching certificates,
in science and mathematics in particular. According to the NEA survey
Status of the American Public School Teacher 1985-86 (1987:20), only
8.4 percent of 1,291 respondents in all fields said they did hold such a
certificate. (The data were not presented by subject area.)
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
Though the incidence seems minor, it would be desirable to have
data from the states or local school districts, over time, on the number of
teachers who hold temporary, provisional, or emergency certificates. SASS
collects data from a sample of teachers on these types of certification in the
teachers' primary, secondary, and best-qualified teaching fields. The design
of the teacher sample will permit estimation of these rates of certification by
type nationally and regionally and by type of district and school. Analyzed
by subject, by region, or by type of area (e.g., rural, suburban, urban),
these data may indicate exhaustion of the reserve pool or a shortage in
a particular subject or in a particular geographic area. It would also be
important to know how easy it is to convert a temporary certificate into
a permanent one. Finally, it would be desirable to monitor the incidence
of obtaining certification through various types of alternative certification
programs. This could be done by adding a question on use of alternative
certification routes to the questionnaire.
New lIires
Newly hired teachers come from many different sources, including
new college graduates, former teachers, individuals who were certified but
never taught, and teachers who change residence. School district personnel
administrators indicated to the panel that typically a large percentage
of their new hires were experienced teachers, not new certificants. Some
administrators expressed a preference for experienced teachers. Descriptive
statistics in many states indicate that a substantial fraction of new hires
consists of teachers that fit into some category other than newly certified
teachers. For example, less than 20 percent of new hires of mathematics
and science teachers in New York State were new certificate holders; the
corresponding figure in Illinois is 40 percent (National Research Council,
1987c:113,103~.
An urban school district in a western state that took part in the panel's
case study provides a more specific illustration of this phenomenon. There,
only 4 of the 16 science and mathematics teachers hired in the past 5
years were new to teaching. And of those 4, only 1 came directly from
college followed by a teacher training program; the other 3 had graduated
between 3 and 10 years earlier and had recently gone back to school for
their teaching certificate. Interviews with the teachers produced thumbnail
sketches of previously experienced new hires:
· A newly hired mathematics teacher had taught science for 12 years
in a junior high school in a neighboring suburban district and grew to
dislike it. After other jobs for four years, he chose to return to teaching but
preferred mathematics to science to avoid the responsibility and liability of
labs.
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MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
99
· A newly hired chemistry teacher had taught for six years in a local
parochial high school, following a career in the Navy where he did teaching
and training full time. Without his retirement salary from the Navy, he
would not be able to support his family on a teacher's salary. He was
actively recruited by the district.
· A science teacher, hired five years ago, had been laid off three
times, twice in this district and once in another district, all due to seniority.
With six years' teaching experience, he was offered a position in five schools
in this district five years ago.
· A mathematics teacher was hired on a part-time basis at her
request. She had taught many years in another state, taught as a long-
term substitute in this district, then as a regular teacher, and plans to
return to full-time teaching next year after her children have adjusted to
school.
· A teacher was newly hired in mathematics but in fact had taught
chemistry at the same school for seven years. She began as a mathematics
teacher, which was her major, but after teaching 12 years in this district was
slated to be laid off. So she switched to chemistry (her minor) and waited
for a math position to open.
· A mathematics teacher hired five years ago had taught at the junior
high level in this district for eight years before moving to the high school
level.
These examples and information from other states underscore the need to
obtain data on all of the components that make up the new teacher supply.
Even new certificate holders may not be from the traditional new col-
lege graduate channel: they may be older people who left their occupations
to earn alternative certification. A total of 21 states offers such a channel,
mainly to meet the needs of particular shortage areas. In most of these
states, alternative certificants constitute a small percentage of total new
hires (McKibbin, 1988~. But some states are notable exceptions (Carey
et al., 1988:27-28~: The New Jersey Provisional Teacher Program trained
240 mathematics and science teachers between 1985 and 1988. Among
the districts that participated in the California Teacher Trainee Program in
1984-85 and 1985-86, the program accounted for 61 (15 percent) of new
mathematics teachers, 101 (31 percent) of new biological science teachers,
and 24 (24 percent) of all new physical science teachers.
1b monitor the supply of science and mathematics teachers, it is
necessary to be able to distinguish among the components of the corps of
new hires. Ideally, to monitor supply at the district level, data are needed
for the following categories by subject (chemistry, physics, biology, other
sciences, calculus, other math, other subjects):
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
Certified teachers with no prior teaching experience:
Certified before the last school year*
Out-of-state certificate
In-state certificate
Certified during last school year
Out-of-state certificate
In-state certificate-whether through a regular or an alterna-
tive program
Certified experienced teachers:
Teachers returning from temporary leave*
Aught prior year
Out-of-state
In-state but out-of-district
Did not teach prior year*
Last taught out-of-state
Last taught in-state but out-of-district
Last taught in-district
Noncertified college graduates with emergency credentials:
Aught last year
In-district
Not in-district
Did not teach last year*
*These categories came from the reserve pool.
Many of the districts in our case studies do not currently collect such data,
and only a few (generally the larger districts) disaggregate the data by
subject, as would be desired. SASS has been designed to collect such data.
Several other types of data could shed light on the supply of new hires.
These include information on incentives to teach, reasons for selecting
one's current school or district, the number of applicants per opening, the
number of job offers per hire, and the extent of district recruiting. SASS
presently asks school administrators how difficult it was in general (not
for specific fields) to find qualified applicants to fill teaching vacancies last
year. If the respondent notes it was difficult in some fields, space is given
to write in those particular subjects.
Desired information regarding new hires includes the ability to monitor
their incentives to teach. Comparative salary data are needed to indicate
the competitiveness of beginning teachers' salaries relative to the starting
salaries of alternative nonteaching positions. There is a question of just
how this comparison should be made, but one simple measure would be
starting salaries in industry for people with equivalent education, such as a
bachelor of science degree in mathematics. The College Placement Council
publishes these data annually (College Placement Council, 1988~.
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MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
101
It would also be useful to know the reasons why science and mathe-
matics teachers selected their current school or their current district and
alternative offers they had. Such data are not currently collected by the
SASS teacher questionnaire and were not part of the National Longitu-
dinal Survey (NLS) teaching supplement. The data would help identify
actions that schools or districts might take to attract well-qualified science
and mathematics teachers. However, if there is a national shortage, such
actions may only alter the geographic distribution of existing new teachers.
Mend data on the ratio of applicants to vacancies by field could be
useful, even though it is recognized that the number of applicants for a
position is a function not only of supply but also of aggressive recruiting and
of the characteristics of the district and its schools. Although an applicant
may apply for more than one vacancy, a decline in this indicator over
time would point to increasing shortages of applicants in a particular field.
Questions on the number of applicants could be added to SASS. Mend
data on the ratio of job offers per hire could alert a district to changes in
the attractiveness of its positions, but small (large) ratios could also reflect
a surplus (shortage) of teachers.
Interviews with school district administrators revealed how shortages
and surpluses in particular subjects were reflected in adjustments made
in recruiting practices. A shortage in an area of need frequently for
minority teachers at all levels-often would trigger an aggressive recruiting
effort, including trips to other states. It was often mentioned that a few
years ago officials traveled to cities experiencing teacher layoffs to recruit
science and mathematics teachers; today, however, the officials may have
few or no vacancies in these subjects, and no recruiting is needed. It would
be helpful to have data from school districts, perhaps building on SASS,
on the extent to which districts are shifting from screening applicants to
recruiting actively by subject and by raciaVethnic group. When teachers
are in surplus, districts recruit near home (if at all) and usually need only
to screen and accept applicants. Thus, a count of the number of districts
engaging in active recruiting is an indicator of shortage, and growth in these
numbers over time suggests an increasing shortage.
The Reserve Pool
The reserve pool consists of people with teaching experience who did
not teach last year, or individuals who were certified to teach at least a year
ago but who have never taught. This reserve pool is a major source of new
hires. The National Education Association estimates that more than half
the new hires in the nation come from it (NEA, 1987f). In Connecticut,
more than two-thirds of the new hires in 1984 came from the reserve pool.
Returning experienced teachers constituted 55.5 percent of the new hires,
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AD ~THE~TICS TRACHEA
and 12.0 percent were reserve pool members with no prior Connecticut
public school teaching experience (Prowda and Grissmer, 1986:18~. Since
the reserve pool plays such a major role as a source of new hires, it is
important to know how large it is and where it is found, or at least to know
whether it is nearly exhausted. Concern about depletion of the reserve
pool is not a state issue, but can be a special urban, rural, or regional
issue related to the region's particular labor market situation. In major
parts of the state of Louisiana, for example, it is impossible to find certified
teachers to fill vacancies. Consequently, the schools are forced to hire on
a temporary certificate or to drop courses from the curriculum. In these
areas, not only is the reserve pool exhausted, but there are also insufficient
newly certified teachers who are willing to teach under the conditions
offered.
it,
Little is known about who, among the various categories of people in
the reserve pool, desires to enter or reenter the teaching profession. Thus,
more important than estimating the size of the reserve pool is estimating
the supply potential of the reserve pool, because some of the individuals in
the reserve pool would not reenter teaching under any conditions. Different
components of the pool can be expected to behave in very different ways.
For example, teachers on maternity or health leave during a given year, or
laid off and expecting to be called back, can plausibly be expected to return
to the teaching pool in the next year at relatively high rates; newly certified
teachers who did not obtain teaching jobs even though they have been in the
market during the last few years, can be expected to remain in the teacher
supply pool with relatively high probability; teachers whose credentials are
older and who have been out of the teaching market for several years have
a lower probability of being attracted back to teaching; while people with
teaching certificates who have followed a completely different career path
for many years have a much lower probability of being attracted to teaching.
In some states, as we noted above, everyone with a bachelor's degree is
potentially in the supply pool with some (arguably low) probability.
Several approaches could be followed to estimate the supply potential
of the reserve pool: new college graduates could be followed over time,
new hires from the reserve pool could be tracked backward, data could be
collected and accumulated on the number of last year's certificants who
did/did not get teaching jobs, and state agencies could use state certification
files to study the reserve pool in the state.
Looking at these approaches in more detail, first consider what could
be learned by following new graduates over time. The best source for this
is data on the cohort of education majors in the Longitudinal Study of the
High School Class of 1972. Heyns (1988) has used this data base to study
entry and attrition of this cohort and to collect information on who left
teaching and who wants to return (potential supply in the reserve pool). She
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MONITORING TlIE SUPPLY POOL
105
study of the recruitment areas for urban, suburban, small town, and rural
districts would help define the geographic areas in which members of the
reserve pool represent potential supply.
In view of the major importance of the reserve pool to teacher supply
and the concern that the other constituent of supply, newly certified teach-
ers, is decreasing, the panel urges that all of these types of data collection
and research activities be carried out.
Retention and Attrition Rates
New entrants to teaching are one major component of teacher supply.
The other major component and the largest-is the corps of continuing
teachers. Continuing teachers represent typically 90 percent of teacher
supply in any year. Models tend to use single retention rates or attrition
rates for projection purposes. More successful state models use attrition
rates that are differentiated by age or years of experience and by subject
field. We reaffirm our support, as stated in the panel's interim report,
for the use of timely, disaggregated data to determine the proportions
of teachers who can be expected to stay or leave. Improvements can be
built into SASS to ensure useful data on teacher retention and attrition
by subject. We again acknowledge that there are tricly problems in using
information on retention to project continuing teachers. For example,
teachers who leave one school may simply transfer to another, and for a
national portrayal of supply this kind of mobility needs to be subtracted
out. Models for a subject such as biology need to be sure not to count as
continuing biology teachers those who were teaching another subject last
year.
In this vein, additional data are called for to monitor, over time, the
important phases of the supply pipeline encompassing retention and attri-
tion. 1b what extent do science and mathematics teachers leave teaching
early in their careers? Do statistics indicate a large wave of retirements
in the next five years? 15 years? It appears from an analysis by RAND
of the teaching force in 1976-77, 1980-81, and 1983-84 that the proportion
of teachers age 55 and over (9.5-10 percent) was quite stable. There was
a clustering of secondary school teachers in mid-career, (age 35-44~; 36.2
percent of secondary school teachers in 1983-87 were in this age group, an
increase from 22.6 percent in 1976-77. The older members of this group are
expected to become eligible for retirement in about 15 years (i.e., 1998-99~.
At that time the beginning of a wave of retirements may be anticipated
(Haggstrom et al., 1988:8-9~. For science and mathematics teachers, pat-
terns of age, years of experience, and expected retirements seem to be
similar. The 1985-86 survey of science and mathematics education by Weiss
(1987) found that the typical high school science or mathematics teacher
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
in 1985-1986 had 14 years of prior teaching experience, compared with 11
years for a typical teacher in 1977 some evidence of aging. The data do
not support the prediction of an unusually large wave of retirees in the
next decade. The class intervals in the Weiss study differ from those in the
RAND study, although she found that only 14 percent of secondary school
mathematics teachers and 16 percent of secondary school science teachers
were over 50 years old (Weiss, 1987:64~.
Data are thus needed from districts on the distribution of teachers by
level, age, race/ethnici~, sex, and discipline. Attrition should be classified
by retirement or other cause. Comparative salaries should be included
to glean more about the competitiveness of teacher salaries relative to
opportunity cost salaries. More specifically, information on the salary scale
is needed, unless both average salary and years of experience are available.
These data would enable the separation of attrition due to retirement from
attrition due to incentives to leave teaching in favor of something else. The
best prospect for obtaining these data is probably SASS, which included
questions on attrition, by field, in the base year survey, but response to
those questions was unacceptably small. The panel encourages efforts by
NCES to modify the SASS matrix questions on attrition to simplify and
improve response and to collect these data on a continuing basis. The
school questionnaire should be able to separate attrition due to moving
to another district from attrition due to leaving the teaching profession
completely, which reduces the national supply of teachers.
Overall changes in supply are affected by factors that make teaching
more or less attractive compared with other occupations. The SASS follow-
up survey of former teachers, conducted in spring 1989 and to be surveyed
again in 1991 and 1993, should provide data on this aspect on a national
scale. Another rich source of data that are available for analysis is the
supplemental questionnaire sent to over 1,000 past and present teachers
and those trained for teaching in 1986 as part of the fifth follow-up of
the National Longitudinal Study of 1972 (NLS-72) (see Appendix B for a
description of this subsample). In a preliminary analysis of the detailed
career histories of these current and former teachers, Heyns (1988) found
that nearly half (44.7 percent) of those who had taught for at least a year
were no longer teaching by 1986. She found attrition rates to be particularly
high in the first three or four years of teaching, and often it was male high
school teachers who left. Most of those who left were single and took
another job directly after leaving teaching; that is, the primary pattern of
nonretirement attrition was not women leaving for homemaking.
Another factor that can influence the retention rate for a school district
or state is the portability of teachers' pensions. It would be useful to
have comparative information from states on teacher retirement policies.
Such information would be helpful for research relating retention rates,
OCR for page 107
MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
107
portability of teacher pensions and retirement policies, and particularly the
sensitivity of attrition rates to the generosity of retirement provision.
The erects and the relative strengths of incentives such as retirement
systems and those such as salary and professional development opportu-
nities on attrition or retention are worth pursuing through better data
gathering. SASS does ask school districts about the minimum age, years
of service, and penalty associated with their retirement plans. Nonethe-
less, additional information is needed to improve the analysis of behavioral
components at the retirement end of the supply pipeline.
Teacher Mobility and Interstate Migration
Little information is available on teacher mobility. Although teacher
mobility in or out of a district affects supply at the district level, it affects
supply at the state level only if the migration is interstate and affects national
supply only if the teachers immigrate or emigrate. Effective monitoring of
teacher mobility should start with separation data from the states, in the
interest of avoiding double-counting. ~Ib be checked is whether the state
can subtract "movers" from "leavers."
Little is known of the effects of interstate migration on the supply of
teachers for a given state, but large systems the panel interviewed in Texas,
Nevada, and Washington are noteworthy for major recruiting efforts out of
state, as are two of the large-city districts represented at the panel's May
1988 conference, the Los Angeles Unified School District and the school
district of Dade Count, Florida. While some states may have information
on the in-migration of teachers (see Able 4.1 for New York State), most
states do not maintain such data; for those that do, the data may not be
comparable with other states. The National Governors' Association (N GA)
surveyed 15 states in 1987 for information on teacher mobility and teacher
retirement system characteristics (NGA, 1988:9-10~. Six states were able
to provide information on the number of new hires who had taught in
another state. The NGA concluded: "Clearly, this is another example of
the need for better educational statistics. Nonetheless, . . . the number of
experienced teachers moving into a state is large enough to be of concern
but manageable enough for a retirement system to attempt to accommodate
mobile teachers."
None of the states has data for out-migration to other states. One effort
to overcome that deficiency is a project funded by the National Science
Foundation through the Council of Chief State School Officers and the
Regional Laboratory for Educational Improvement in the Northeast and
Islands. Known as the Northeast Teacher Supply and Demand (NETSAD)
study, it is a seven-state cooperative endeavor being undertaken by the
Massachusetts Institute for Social and Economic Research. A primal
OCR for page 108
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110
PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
concern of the project is to track the historical interstate migration of
teachers within the region. It was borne of the interest of the Chief
State School Officers in the seven states to establish a regional teaching
certificate.
The SASS teacher questionnaire includes information regarding the
occupation of teachers just prior to their current positions, which should be
a resource for studying mobility at both the state and district levels. In ad-
dition, the SASS follow-up survey of teachers who leave the districts in the
SASS sample, and further analysis of the NLS subsample of teachers and
former teachers, should provide some useful data on the behavioral com-
ponents of teacher mobility. Do they move for salary increases, for better
working conditions, or because their family moves? A different perspective
on the behavioral components of teacher mobility could be obtained from
in-depth discussions with a group of district personnel officers. A series
of in-depth conferences with school system officials is recommended in
Chapter 6.
To summarize the discussion of this section, the supply of precollege
science and mathematics teachers can be envisioned as a pipeline marked
by a number of stages or decision points. These decision points should
be monitored for a clearer understanding of the incentives underlying the
decisions made by individuals as they move through college and the world
of work. Key decision points that call for further information are college
students' selection of majors and career goals; earning certification to teach
and to become certified in certain subject areas; the decision either to
apply immediately to teach or to pursue a nonteaching activity; knowing
about the composition of the group of new hires; understanding the supply
potential of teachers in the reserve pool; and knowing more about the
decision to remain in teaching or to leave. At each stage we have noted
data that are needed to provide a clearer picture of the supply of science
and mathematics teachers.
A SPECIAL CASE: TTIE SUPPLY OF MINORITY TEACHERS
In the interviews conducted with school district personnel administra-
tors across the country, they frequently mentioned a shortage of minority
teachers. If concentrated efforts were made to increase the number of
minority science and mathematics teachers in particular, an indirect result
certainly would be an increase in the overall supply pool of teachers. In
this vein, then, we summarize the available data on the particular problem
of the supply of minority science and mathematics teachers.
Statistics collected by the National Education Association (NEA) indi-
cate that the proportion of minority teachers fell significantly between 1971
and 1986. In 1971, 8.1 percent of the teaching force were black and 3.6
OCR for page 111
MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
111
percent were of other minority groups. By 1986, however, black represen-
tation had dropped to 6.9 percent, and other minorities had declined to 3.4
percent (NEA, 1987e:14~. Comparisons with minority school enrollment
proportions show how seriously under-represented minority teachers are.
A policy statement issued in September 1987 by the American Association
of Colleges for Teacher Education (AA(~-lE;) summarized data from the
NCES on student enrollments (CES, 1987b) and from the NEA on teachers
(NEA, 1987e) in a clear illustration of the problem (AAC--lL;, 1987a:3~:
· Blacks represent 16.2 percent of the children in public schools, but
only 6.9 percent of the teachers.
· Hispanics represent 9.1 percent of the children in public schools,
but only 1.9 percent of the teachers.
· Whites represent 71.2 percent of the children in public schools, but
89.6 percent of the teachers.
To trace the special problem of minority underrepresentation in pre-
college teaching-and, when data are available, science and mathematics
teaching in particular selected statistics are shown below to illustrate the
monitoring of minority-teacher supply at eight stages of a supply pipeline.
1. Minority enrollment us higher education. The data on minority
enrollments that follow were compiled by NCES and reported in its 1988
report Trends in Minonty Enrollment in Higher Education, Fall 1976-Fall
1986 (CES, 1988d). Black enrollments in higher education went from
1.03 million in 1976 to a high point of 1.11 million in 1980 and declined
somewhat to 1.08 million as of 1986. Enrollment for other minority groups
has increased steadily since 1976: Hispanics (from 400,000 to 625,000 in
1986) and Asians/Pacific Islanders (more than doubling from 200,000 in
1976 to 448,000 in 1986~. Black male enrollment has undergone the most
significant rate of decline among minorities, having fallen about 7 percent
between 1976 and 1986. In terms of proportions, minorities generally
constituted approximately 17.9 percent of total enrollment in institutions
of higher education as of lean increase from 15.4 percent of total
enrollments in 1976. For blacks, however, the proportion had fallen from
9.4 percent in 1976 to 8.6 percent in 1986.
2. Interest in majoring in education. For college-bound black high
school seniors who noted their intended college major on their SAT back-
ground information forms, interest in majoring in education decreased
between 1981 and 1984. Baratz (1986), citing the yearly profiles of college-
bound seniors published by the College Board, reported that in 1981, 5
percent of black student respondents intended to major in education. But
by 1984 only 3.4 percent of black students intended to do so (pp. 9-10~. And
when the mean SAT scores of black high school seniors by intended major
are compared, the highest mean SAT scores are found among students
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112
PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
headed for the fields of engineering, physical science or mathematics, and
biological sciences. The mean SAT score for students who were planning to
major in education was the lowest among the eight fields of study (Baratz,
1986:8~.
3. Bachelor's degrees earned. It appears that the minority teacher
supply pool continues to decline with each stage along the pipeline. Most
of the declines occur among blacks; other minority groups seem to continue
in the supply pipeline at greater rates than blacks, and at greater rates than
a decade ago. As reported by NCES in Education Indicators- 1988 (NCES,
1988f:104~:
Blacks earned fewer degrees in 1985 than in 1977 at all degree
levels except the first-professional (e.g., M.D., J.D.~. Ibe declines are
particularly significant when compared with increases in the young adult
black population during the same period: it rose 7 percent among 18- to
24-year-olds and 40 percent among 25- to 3lyear-olds. Men accounted
for nearly two-thirds of the drop in degrees [among blacks] ....
Hispanics, Asians and American Indians/Alaskan Natives earned more
degrees in 1985 than in 1977 at all levels. The increase among Hispanics
was in line with their population growth.
The number of bachelor's degrees in education (though this statistic
has limited meaning given the movement toward requiring subject majors)
fell significantly overall, from 143,462 in 1976-77 to 87,788 in 1984-85 a 39
percent decline. But for blacks it declined particularly steeply. In 197~77,
12,922 blacks earned bachelor's degrees in education; in 1985, only 5,456
did a 58 percent decline (NCES, 1988f:290,292~.
4. Pursuing a master's degree in education. In an NCES special report,
Hill (1983:18) reported a large decrease between 1976 and 1981 in the
number of education degrees earned at the master's and doctor's degree
level as well as the bachelor's degree level. Fewer students as a whole
obtained an advanced degree in education, but for blacks the number
declined more than for graduates in general. Overall, 128,417 graduate
students received master's degrees in education in 1976 (NCES, 1986:130),
by far the most popular advanced degree pursued (next was the master's in
business, with 42,512 recipients). By 1985, only 76,137 master's degrees in
education were earned a dramatic 41 percent decline (NCES, 1988b:211~.
For blacks, however, there was a 53 percent drop in~the number receiving
master's degrees in education: from 12,434 in 1975-76 (Hill, 1983:27) to
5,812 in 1984-85 (NCES, 1988b:223).
5. Pursuing teaching versus other endeavors. While the number of
blacks earning bachelor's and master's degrees in education fell substan-
tially between the mid-1970s and the mid-1980s, the total number of
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MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
113
first-professional degrees and M.B.~s awarded to blacks rose during this
period (Hill, 1983:27,29; NCES,198~3b:223,228~. In a Phi Delta Kappan
article documenting the shortage of black teachers, Patricia ~ Graham
cited a vanes of data sources indicating decline in the supply of minority
teachers. Graham speculated about the alternative routes black students In
higher education could be taking (Graham, 1987:603~:
Experts differ about the causes for the decline in the number of
black teachers and for the decline in the number of black students
seeking to major in education. The first explanation, favored by those
who believe that America is slowly but inevitably progressing toward
racial justice, stresses the broader range of career choices available
to educated blacks today. Previously, teaching was one of the few
jobs available to college-educated black men and women. Because we
now see blacks in other professions, we conclude that these successful
middle-class blacks would have been teachers in previous generations.
To some extent, this conclusion is probably correct, but not enough
blacks have moved into other professions as yet for us to be certain that
they represent displaced teachers .... Young blacks who are choosing
alternatives to careers in education are not shifting in significant numbers
to other professional fields.
The data we have available do not probe the alternative careers that
minorities are pursuing, and we believe this will be an important research
topic to study. The Survey of Recent College Graduates asks for the
respondent's race. This survey may hint at decisions made immediately
after college graduation, but it does not probe as deeply into alternative
career or schooling decisions as would be required to analyze fully this
special case of minority science and mathematics teacher supply. Data
from the follow-up surveys of the NLS-72 sample could be analyzed by
race/ethnicity to identity the career patterns minority students are selecting
and the career patterns they pursue.
6. New hoes. The number of new hires into the nation's public
school systems is not known nationally by raciaVethnic group, but it should
be available from SASS since the teacher questionnaire asks for the re-
spondent's race and subject taught. SASS is also expected to provide data
on what the person had done before entering teaching (though it does not
ask for the salary of the job held prior to entering teaching).
7. The current teachingforce. Among the general public-school teach-
ing force, the percentage of teachers who are black decreased from 8.1
percent in 1971 to 6.9 percent in 1986 (NCES, 1988b:70~. The proportions
Of secondary science and mathematics teachers in 1985-86 who are black
are lower still. Among grade 10-12 mathematics teachers, only 3 percent
are black; among grade 1~12 science teachers, 5 percent are black (Weiss,
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114
PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEAL4TICS TEACHERS
1987:63~. Most of the black and Hispanic teachers of science and mathe-
matics are in the elementary grades. The Office of Technology Assessment
(1988:58) posits: "For now, the proportion of minorities in the teach-
ing force is increasing slightly, but several commentators warn of future
shortages of minority teachers, particularly in mathematics and science."
8. Retention and attrition. Of 308 minority teachers surveyed as part
of Metropolitan Life's 1988 Survey of the American Teacher, 40 percent
said they were likely to leave teaching within five years, as opposed to 25
percent of the 891 nonminority respondents (Metropolitan Life, 1988:22~.
This may reflect the fact that 29 percent of the minority teachers surveyed
for the Metropolitan Life project worked in inner-city schools, as opposed
to only 9 percent of the nonminority teachers. The Metropolitan Life
report summarized its findings on this aspect of teaching as follows (p. 5~:
Almost three out of four of the dissatisfied minority teachers say
they are likely to leave, compared to about half of the dissatisfied
non-minori~ teachers.
Even among minorities who are very satisfied with their careers as
teachers, more than one out of five say that they are likely to leave.
· Less experienced minority teachers are the most likely to say that
they will leave. Fully 55 percent of minority teachers with less than
five years of teaching experience say that they are likely to leave
the profession.
Little information is currently available on retention and attrition rates
of minority teachers. A study by Kemple (1989) of the career paths of
2,535 black teachers in North Carolina finds that, on one hand, over two-
thirds of these teachers, who began their teaching careers between 1974
and 1982, stayed in teaching through 1985-86, and over one-third who had
quit returned. On the other hand, the likelihood of teachers in this group
leaving has been increasing since the mid-1970s, suggesting that as blacks
gain access to other professions they may shorten their teaching careers.
Kemple stressed that "even minor increases in attrition will have large
influences on the overall representation of Black men and women in the
teaching force" (p. 2~.
Data from the 1989 SASS follow-up questionnaires of teachers who left
and teachers who remain, which are expected to be available in 1990, and
analysis of the 1986 survey of teachers and former teachers who took part
in NLS-72, offer the best possibilities at this time of national data capturing
much-needed information on alternative jobs taken and opportunity costs
associated with teaching science and mathematics. These questionnaires ask
for the respondent's race, subjects taught, length of experience, comparative
salaries, and decisions made regarding continuing or leaving teaching, the
pursuit of more schooling, or taking other positions.
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MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL
115
Research is needed on the employment patterns of minorities and
especially the difference in response to opportunity by minority women.
Would increasing salaries attract them to teaching? Or is the cost of
teacher training the problem? From 1958 to 1965 state teacher colleges
provided blacks with easy access to education. They could live at home
while going to college and could get a degree with the opportunity for
income. A researchable question is whether the cost of teacher training
relative to other occupational training has increased.
In conducting such research, analysis of existing data by raciaVethnic
characteristics would be a productive first step. As a companion to the
description in Appendix B of national data sets relevant to teacher supply
and demand, NCES has published a useful compilation identifying six
minority student issues and relating them to 32 NCES surveys containing
racial/ethnic data (NCES, 1989b).
In conclusion, the troubling evidence thus far on minority science and
mathematics teachers suggests a disproportionately acute shortage of blacks.
The most valuable activity we can suggest from analysis of data from SASS
and other data sets and through the conduct of further research would
be to probe into alternative decisions black college students and graduates
make, alternative positions they pursue, and the opportunity costs they
perceive that draw them away from teaching science or mathematics.
SUMMARY
We have called attention to important gaps in the content of current
state and national models. 1b understand fully the forces, influences,
and incentives that affect the supply of science and mathematics teachers
requires data and behavioral content that the current models do not capture.
A sequential approach toward the goal of improved national models is thus
recommended. For the short term, efforts can be made to monitor the
state of supply-by further analyzing existing data such as those from the
NLS-72, by building on the promising work of SASS, and by compiling and
disseminating states' data, for a clearer portrayal of the supply situation in
this country. This chapter described existing and proposed data that can
serve as components of an effective monitoring system.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
mathematics teachers
