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PRECOLLEGE
SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS
TEACHERS
Monitoring Supply, Demand,
and Quality
Dorothy M. Gilford and Ellen Tenenbaum, Editors
Panel on Statistics on Supply and Demand for Precollege
Science and Mathematics Teachers
F. Thomas Juster, Chair
Committee on National Statistics
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1990
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Repon Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis-
tinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the-furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it lay the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National
Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the
National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the
National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government
and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel
0. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White
are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This project was supported with funds from the National Science Foundation and the National
Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89-89-64263
International Standard Book Number 0-309-04197-X
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20418
S099
Printed in the United States of America
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PANEL ON STATISTICS ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR
PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
F. THOMAS JUSTER (Chair), Institute for Social Research, University
of Michigan
WILMER S. CODY, State Department of Education, Baton Rouge,
Louisiana
GLENN ~ CROSBY, Department of Chemistry, Washington State
University
F. JOE CROSSWHITE, Department of Mathematics, Northern Arizona
University
HARRIET FISHLOW, Undergraduate Enrollment Planning, Office of the
President, Academic Affairs Division, University of California,
Berkeley
CHARLO'l lit; V. KUH, Graduate Record Examination Board, Princeton,
New Jersey
EUGENE P. MCLOONE, Department of Education Policy, Planning, and
Administration, University of Maryland
MICHAEL S. MCPHERSON, Department of Economics, Williams
College
RICHARD J. MURNANE, (graduate School of Education, Harvard
University
INGRAM OLKIN, Department of Statistics and School of Education,
Stanford University
JOHN J. STIGLMEIER, Information Center on Education, New York
State Education Department
DOROTHY M. GILFORD, Study Director
ELLEN TENENBAUM, Consultant
M. JANE PHILLIPS, Administrative Secretary
· . .
111
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
BURTON H. SINGER (Chair), Department of Epidemiology and Public
Health, Yale University
JAMES O. BERGER, Statistics Department, Purdue University
DAVID H. BLACKWELL, Department of Statistics, University of
California, Berkeley
NORMAN M. BRADBURN, Provost, University of Chicago
RONALD S. BROOKMEYER, Department of Biostatistics, Johns
Hopkins University
MARTIN H. DAVID, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin,
Madison
LOUIS GORDON, Department of Mathematics, University of Southern
California
JERRY ~ HAUSMAN, Department of Economics, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology
F. THOMAS JUSTER, Institute for Social Research, University of
Michigan
GRAHAM KALTON, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public
Health, and Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
JANE ~ MENKEN, Population Studies Center, University of
Pennsylvania
S. JAMES PRESS, Department of Statistics, University of California,
Riverside
DOROTHY P. RICE, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences,
School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco
KENNETH W. WACHTER, Department of Statistics, University of
California, Berkeley
MIRON L. S - AF, Director
1V
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Acknowledgments
The panel wishes to thank the many people who contributed to the
development of this report. First, we benefited greatly from the experiences
of those school district officials and teachers who participated in the case
studies. Special thanks are extended to consultants Jane L. David, Marianne
Amarel, and Jennifer P. Pruyn, who conducted in-depth case studies of six
of the selected school districts. Also of great benefit to the panel were the
insights shared by the personnel directors of the seven large city school
systems during the conference that took place in May 1988: Charles Almo,
Chicago Public Schools; Edward Aquilone, New York City Schools; Ray
Cohrs, Seattle Public Schools; Thomas Killeen, Los Angeles Unified School
System; Alan Olkes, Dade County School District; George Russell, San
Diego City Unified School District; and Jim Shinn, Montgomery County
School System. Marlene Holayter, Fairfax County Public Schools, helped
in organizing the conference by identifying potential participants; she also
participated in the conference.
Particular thanks are due to Richard Berry and to Ronald Anderson
of the Office of Studies and Program Assessment, the National Science
Foundation. Each of them served as the panel's project officer in different
phases of the panel, provided valuable information to panel members,
and shared their thoughts and professional experience. The panel is also
grateful for the help and encouragement extended by Paul Planchon of the
National Center for Education Statistics.
We would also like to thank members of the Commission on Behavioral
and Social Sciences and Education and of the Committee on National
Statistics, who reviewed the report and provided thoughtful and incisive
comments. In addition, Mary Papageorgiou, statistician with the National
Center for Education Statistics (NCES), carefully read the draft report and
v
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clarified important information about the Schools and Staffing Survey now
being undertaken at NCES. Constance Citro of the Committee on National
Statistics also found time to review the report and offered cogent comments,
reflecting her earlier service to the panel as study director for the first phase
of the project. And Jane ~ David took the time to read the draft report,
raising important questions that led to rewriting and reorganizing pans of
the report.
Christine McShane, editor of the Commission on Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education, provided highly professional editing of the report,
which contributed greatly to its readability. She also prepared it for final
publication.
The panel extends its appreciation to its staff for their tireless work
and dedication to this project. Jane Phillips served ably as administrative
secretary for the panel, taking care of the logistical arrangements for
the panel meetings and cheerfully and efficiently handling the numerous
rounds of revisions to the draft report. Dorothy M. Gilford, who served
as study director for the second phase, not only contributed substantially
to the style, substance, and coherence of the report, but also successfully
motivated panel members to work much harder on the project than they may
have originally planned. Ellen Tenenbaum assisted Dorothy in producing a
cohesive synthesis of our discussions and conclusions, as well as in rewriting
and reorganizing drafts prepared by panel members.
Finally, I wish to thank the panel members themselves for their gen-
erous contributions of time and expert knowledge. It has been a pleasure
to work together toward this final report. While the findings and recom-
mendations reflect the collective thinking of the panel, I appreciate the
hard work done by individual panel members in drafting text for several
chapters: Harriet Fishlow prepared the demography section of Chapter
2; Richard Murnane drafted Chapter 3; John Stiglmeier prepared the in-
troduction to Chapter 4 and provided very useful data about teachers in
the state of New York; Eugene McLoone drafted most of Chapter 5; and
Charlotte Kuh wrote the introduction to Chapter 6. It would be remiss not
to mention Dick Murnane's and Charlotte Kuh's helpful responses to many
questions raised by the staff while the report was being revised to respond
to reviewers.
Thomas Juster, Chair
Panel on Statistics on Supply and Demand
for Precollege Science and Mathematics Teachers
V1
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Contents
SUMMARY.............................
Data Recommendations, 3
Resources for Data, 4
Demand Data, 4
Supply Data, 5
Quality Data, 6
General Data Recommendations, 7
Research Issues Identified by the Panel, 8
Resources for Research, 8
Research on Demand, 8
Research on Supply, 9
Research on Quality, 10
Research on Student Outcomes, 11
Research Facilitation, 11
Information Exchange Among Districts, States, and the NCES, 11
Implementing the Recommendations, 12
1 INTRODUCTION..................................
The Meaning of Shortage, 15
Factors Affecting Demand, 17
Factors Affecting Supply, 24
Quality Issues in Supply and Demand, 26
The Panel's Work and Organization of the Report, 34
. . .1
DETERMINING TEACHER DEMAND 37
Student Enrollment, 37
Enrollment Projections Based on Student Enrollment Data, 38
V11
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Population Projections A Proxy for Enrollment Projections, 43
Research Areas Related to Student Enrollment, 50
Pupil-Teacher Ratios, 51
Components of Teacher Demand and Related Data, 52
Research on Determinants of Pupil-Teacher Ratios, 55
Teacher Attrition Rates, 56
Summary, 58
DETERMINING SUPPLY: INDIVIDUAL AND
DISTRICT ACTIVITIES.........................
. . . . . .
The Components of Supply, 60
Continuing Teachers, 61
New Entrants, 64
What Influences an Individual to Teach?, 65
College Students' Occupational Preparation Decisions, 68
The Decision to Enter Teaching, 69
Where to Teach, 71
How Long to Stay in Teaching, 72
Whether to Return to Teaching, 75
Whether to Move to a Different State, 76
When to Retire, 77
Conclusions, 79
How Does a District Mesh Supply With Demand?, 80
Determining Needs, 81
Soliciting Applicants, 83
Screening Applicants, 84
Making Offers, 87
Who is Hired, 89
Conclusions, 90
Summary, 91
4 MONITORING THE SUPPLY POOL OF SCIENCE AND
MATHEMATICS TEACHERS...............................
Monitoring Points Along the Supply Pipeline, 94
College Students Planning to Teach, 95
Certification, 96
New Hires, 98
The Reserve Pool, 101
Retention and Attrition Rates, 105
Teacher Mobility and Interstate Migration, 107
A Special Case: The Supply of Minority Teachers, 110
Summary? 115
.. .
V111
.......... 60
....92
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5 STATISTICS RELATED TO THE QUALITY OF SCIENCE
AND MATHEMATICS TEACHING 116
School System Policies and Practices, 120
Recruitment and Hiring Practices, 120
Misassignment of Teachers, 123
Providing for Inservice and Continuing Education, 125
Other Practices That Affect Teaching Quality, 127
Measuring Teacher Qualifications, 129
Certification as the Basic Prosy for Teacher Quality, 129
Course Preparation and Transcript Data, 130
Professional Standards as a Quality Dimension, 133
Testing for Subject-Matter Knowledge, 134
The Holmes and Carnegie Recommended Standards, 135
The Presidential Awards for Science and Mathematics
Teachers, 136
Teacher Qualifications and Student Outcomes, 138
Evidence, 138
Implications for Data and Research, 139
Other School and Home Factors That Affect
Outcomes, 141
Curriculum Structure, 141
Quality of Textbooks, 141
Classroom Time Used for Science and Mathematics, 142
Other Instructional Factors, 143
Home Environment, 144
Summary, 145
6 DATA NEEDS AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
Data Recommendations, 158
Funding for Data Collection, 159
Data Related to Demand, 159
Data Related to Supply, 160
Data Related to Qualipr, 166
General Data Recommendations, 168
Research Issues Identified by the Panel, 170
Resources for Research, 170
Demand, 171
Supply, 171
Quality, 173
Student Outcomes, 175
Research Facilitation, 176
Graduate Student Research, 176
Data Bases for Personal Computers, 177
ix
..... 157
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State Data Bases, 177
Limitations of Un~variate Indicators, 178
Facilitation of Information Exchange Among
Districts, States, and the NCES, 179
References ........
........... 183
A PANEL ACTIVITIES, 211
B NATIONAL DATA SETS RELATING TO DEMAND,
SUPPLY, AND QUALITY OF PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND
MATHEMATICS TEACHERS, 218
C AVAILABILITY OF STATE DATA ON PUBLIC SCHOOL
PROFESSIONAL PERSONNEL' 230
D ACRONYMS, 251
E BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES, 253
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