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CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE Strategies for Energy Research and Development Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies Energy Engineering Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1990

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National Academy Press . 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.~J. Washington, D. C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Cour~cil, whose menders are drawn from the councils of the Nationat Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the comni ttee responsible for the report were chosen for thei r conpetencies and Pi th regard for appropri ate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Comnittee consisting of menders of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nor~rof it, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology arid to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences responsibility for advising the federal government. The #ational Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of Medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuet 0. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy~s purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. Dr. frank Press and Dr. Robert White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DE-AC01-89ER89027 from the U. S. Department of Energy. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 90-628B2 I nternat i one l Standard Book Nurser 0-309- 04347-6 Copies of this report are available fran: National Academy Press 2101 Const i tut i on Avenue, ~ .U. flash i ngton, D.C. 20418 (202) 334-3313 1 -800-624-6242 S230 Copyright t990 by the National Acadeny of Sciences No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for the purpose of official use by the United States Goverr~nent. Printed in the United States of America First Printing, August 1990 Second Printing, September 1991

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NATIONAL RESEARCH CO UNC] L 2101 coNsTm~nobl A\tE~UE OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN' The Honorable James D. Watkins Secretary U.S. Department of Energy 1000 Independence Avenue, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20585 Dear Mr. Secretary: WASHINCrON, D. C. 20~18 August 14, 1990 I am pleased to forward "Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development, the report of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies. The report was prepared at the request of Congress and with support from the Department of Energy. The report was written by a distinguished group of professionals with diverse backgrounds and experience. It provides perspectives on choices end priorities for energy research and development in the United States, outlining ways by which the nation might choose to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, if it wishes to respond to the possibility of climatic change. In responding to the request from Congress, the committee was faced with the difficult task of conceiving strategies for the United States while recognizing that actions taken unilaterally by the United States, in the absence of a global strategy involving industrial and industrializing countries, would have limited impact on the global emission of greenhouse gases and could weaken our competitive position in world markets. The committee also had to contend with the reality that the United States and many other nations must rely for a long time on fossil fuels' especially coal. Achieving timely and cost-~ffective transitions to low or non-carbon teased fuels and energy resources will be Very difficult. Given the magnitude of changes affecting energy production and use that might be requ~reC'' And commit cons~aerea ~ time noreon that extended to the year 2050. It did this to make distinctions between what might reasonably be accomplished over the longer term and options that could benefit the nation over the next few decades, as well as reflecting heightened concerns about increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. And, given other national priorities and the financial stressin the federal budget, the committee felt compelled to identify actions that were prudent and could be successfully Implemented without requiring greater federal appropriations for energy research and development. ~ ~ . ~ ~ _ . . . . ~ . . The committee also presents an alternative strategy which would require increased investments in energy research and development. It is a strategy to which the nation could commit itself should an increased understanding of the consequences of global warming dictate' or which might be followed to meet other national goals such as energy security. I believe this report offers insights that are important to the formulation of U.S. energy R&D policy. Yours sincerer Frank Press Chairman - T HE NAnON~ RESE - CH CO=CIL IS ~E PRINCIP~ OPE~C ACNCY OF ~E NAnON~ AC^DE' OF SCrENCES AND ~E NATiON~ ACADE~ OF EN~EER~G TO SE RYE GOVERNMENT AND OTHER ORG\NIZAnONS .

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COMMITTEE ON ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DAVID L. MORRISON (Chairman), IIT Research Institute, Chicago, Illinois JAN BEYEA, National Audubon Society, New York, New York CLARK W. BOLLARD, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois WILLIAM M. BURNETT, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Illinois GEORGE M. HIDY, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California HENRY D. JACOBY, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts EDWARD A. MASON, Amoco Corporation, Chicago, Illinois JOHN L. MASON, Allied-S ignal Aerospace Company, Torrance, California WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut LESTER P. SILVERMAN, McKinsey & Company, Inc., Washington, D.C. HUGH R. WYNNE-EDWARDS, Moli Energy Limited, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada LIAISON WITH TEE ENERGY ENGINEERING BOARD GLENN A. SCHURMANN, Chevron Corporation, San Francisco, California DAVID C. WHITE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts TECHNICAL ADVISERS TO TEE COMMITTEE DEBORAH L. BLEVISS, International Institute for Energy Conservation, Washington, D.C. DAN STEINMEYER, Monsanto Chemical Company, St. Louis, Missouri CARL J. WEINBERG, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Ramon, California Lester P. Silverman and Hugh R. Wynne-Edwards served on the committee from June through August 1989 and June through October 1989, respectively, but could not participate in meetings thereafter. v

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STAFF Energy Engineering Board MAHADEVAN (DEV) MANI, Study Director KAMAL J. ARAJ, Senior Program Officer ROBERT COHEN, Senior Program Officer GEORGE LALOS, Consultant JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer ARCHIE L. WOOD, Director PHILOMINA MAMMEN, Administrative Assistant MARY C. PECHACEK, Administrative Assistant Building Research Board PETER H. SMEALLIE, Senior Program Officer Manufacturing Studies Board THEODORE W. JONES, Research Associate V1

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EXPERT PANE LO Five expert panels were constituted by the National Research Council to support the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies. Panel members were selected to complement the committee and Drovide expertise from different sectors of the economy. , , _ _ In the context of the committee's charge directed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in energy production and use in the United States, the panels addressed opportunities in the electric power, transportation, buildings, and industry market sectors and strategies for energy R&D and technology adoption. The panels' work was conducted between October 1989 and Januarv 1990. during which time each Panel met at least three times. _ , _ At these meetings the panels invited presentations from and held discussions with representatives of various government agencies (e.g., Departments of Energy and Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency), from the Oak Ridge, Lawrence Berkeley, Argonne, and Pacific Northwest national laboratories; from the Solar Energy Research Institute; and from industry and academic institutions. The panels subsequently prepared and provided written reports of their respective f indings and reco~n~nendations as inputs to the committee. These, alone with other inputs, were used by the committee in its _ . . - ~ . del iterations and in preparing the f inal report of the study . However, concurrence of the panels was not sought in the final report. Thus, responsibility for the final report rests solely with the committee. Listings of panels and their membership follow. ELECTRICITY PANEL CORVETTE!: ON ALTERNATIVE: ENERGY R1BSEA%CE AND DI;va;I~OPME:= 8TRATEGIE8 DAVID C. WHITE (Chairman), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts THOMAS V. CHEMA, Arter & Hadden, Clever and, Ohio . , , OSMAN K. MAWARDI , Collaborative Planners , Inc., Cleveland Heights, Ohio MOHAN MUNASINGHE, The World Bank/IFC, Washington, D. C. GUY M. NICHOLS, New England Electric Systems, Westborough, Massachusetts HEINZ G. PFEIFFER, Consultant, Allentown, Pennsylvania CARL J . WEINBERG, Pacif ic Gas and Electric Company, San Ramon, California ROBERT H. WILLIAMS, Center for Energy and Environmental Stud' es, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Staf f: Kamal J . Araj, Energy Engineering Board . V11

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TRANSPORTATION PANEL COMMITTEE ON ALTERNATIvE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES JOHN L. MASON (Chairman), Allied-Signal Aerospace Company, Torrance, California HENRY D. JACOBY (Vice-Chairman), Massachusetts Into tute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts CHARLES A. AMANN, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan DEBORAH L. BLEVISS, International Institute for Energy Conservation, Washington, D.C. ROBERT J. CASEY, High-Speed Rail Association, Pennsylvania Pittsburgh, K. G. DEEP, Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, Virginia JACK L. KERREBROCK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts RICHARD L. KLIMISCH, General Motors Technical Center, Warren, Michigan DAVID L. KULP, Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan STEPHEN A. PEZDA,* Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan Staff: George Lalos, Consultant, Energy Engineering Board *Stephen A. Pezda attended one meeting of the Transportation Panel as an alternate for David L. Kulp. RES IDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL PANEL COMMITTEE ON ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESEARCE AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES WILLIAM M. BURNETT (Chairman), Gas Research Institute, Chicago, I 11 inois JAN BEYEA (Vice-Chairman), National Audubon Society, New York, New York JACK B . CHADDOCK, Duke University, Durham, North Carol ina DAVID J. MACFADYEN, NAHB National Research Center, Upper Marlboro, Maryland DAVID B. GOLDSTEIN, Natural Resources Defense Council, San Francisco, California MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Garrett Ceramic Component Division, Torrance, California RICHARD G. STEIN * Stein Partnership, New York, New York RICHARD N. WRIGHT, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland Staff: Peter H. Smeallie, Building Research Board *Deceased April 18, 1990. . . . vail

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INDUSTRY PANEL COMMITTEE ON ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES DAVID L. MORRISON (Chairman) Illinois JACOB M. GEIST, GeistTec, Allentown, Pennsylvania EMERY J. HORNYAK, Owens-Illinois, Inc., Toledo, Ohio NOEL JARRETT, Noel Jarrett Associates, Lower Burell, Pennsylvania PETER J. KOROS, LTV Steel Company, Independence, Ohio GEORGE LAUER, Atlantic Richfield Company, Los Angeles, California MARC H. ROSS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan DAN STEINMEYER, Monsanto Chemical Company, St . Louis, Missouri Staff: Robert Cohen, Energy Engineering Board Theodore W. Jones, Manufacturing Studies Board IIT Research Institute, Chicago, R&D STRATEGIES PANEL COMMITTEE ON ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES CLARK W. BOLLARD (Chairman), University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS (Vice-Chairman), Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut GEORGE M. HIDY, Electric Power Research Institute, California Palo Alto, RICHARD C. LEVIN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut EGILS MILBERGS, Institute for Illinois, Washington, D.C. DAVID C. MOWERY, University of California, Berkeley, California JACK T. SANDERSON, Combustion Engineering, Inc., Stanford, Connecticut AARON WILDAVSKY, University of California, Berkeley, California Staff: James J. Zucchetto, Energy Engineering Board LK

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ENERGY ENGINEERING BOARD JOHN A. TILLINGHAST (Chairman), Tiltec Corporation, New Hampshire DONALD B. ANTHONY, BP Exploration, Houston, Texas RALPH C. CAVANAGH, Natural Resources Defense Council, San Francisco, California CHARLES F. GAY, Arco Solar, Camarillo, California WILLIAM R. GOULD, Southern California Edison Company, Rosemead, Cal if ornia JOSEPH M. HENDRIE, BrooRhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York WILLIAM W. HOGAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ARTHUR E. HUMPHREY, Center for Molecular Bioscience and Biotechnology, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania BAINE P. KERR, Pennzoil Company, Houston, Texas HENRY R. LINDEN, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Illinois THOMAS H. PIGFORD, University of California, Berkeley, California MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Garrett Ceramic Component Division, Torrance, California GLENN A. SCHURMAN, Chevron Corporation, San Francisco, California WESTON M. STACEY, JR., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia LEON STOCK, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois GEORGE S. TOLLEY, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois DAVID C. WHITE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts RICHARD WILSON, Harvard University, Cambridge, Portsmouth, Massachusetts. BERTRAM WOLFE, General Electric Company, San Jose, California Liaison with the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems FLOYD L. CULLER, JR., Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California KENT F. HANSEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts l membership Active during the period of study. ENERGY ENGINEERING BOARD STAFF ARCHIE L. WOOD, MAHADEVAN (DEV) JUDITH A. AMRI, Director MANI, Associate Director Administrative Associate KAMAL J. ARAB' Senior Program Officer ROBERT COHEN, Senior Program Of f icer GEORGE LALOS, Consultant THERESA FISHER, Administrative Assistant PHILOMINA MAMMEN, Administrative Assistant MARY C. PECHACECK, Administrative Assistant JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer NORMAN HAILER, Consultant x

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ACKNOwLEDGMENT8 The work reflected in this report was performed by the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies between June 1989 and February 3990. The committee wishes to acknowledge with gratitude the assistance of the following individuals who provided information on various topics of interest during the course of the study: The Honorable Timothy E. Wirth, United States Senate (Colorado); David Harwood, Staff, U.S. Senate; John Ahearne, Society of Sigma Xi; Marvin Garfinkel and Walter L. Robb, General Electric Company; D. Warner North, Decision Focus, Inc.; Bob Jones, ADM Milling Company; J. Laurence Kulp, Consultant; William Pepper, ICE, Inc.; Geoffrey J. Sturgess, Pratt & Whitney, United Technologies Corporation; John Doyle, Pacific Gas and Electric Company; John F. Elliott and Nicholas J. Grant, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; David Pimentel, Cornell University; Ronald B. Edelstein and Thomas Hayes, Gas Research Institute; Jeremy Metz, American Paper Institute; Eric Vaughn, Renewable Fuels Association; Nicholas Fedoruk, Environmental Action Foundation; John O. Berga and Timothy S. Yau, Electric Power Research Institute; David Jhirad, U.S. Agency for International Development; Frederick M. Bernthal, U.S. Department of State; Patrick R. Booher, Richard A. Bradley, Paul J. Brown, Thomas A. Calhourn, Albert A. Chesnes, John F. Clarke, Melvin H. Chiogioji, Mary Corrigan, David H. Crandall, Bruce Cranford, J. Michael Davis, George Doumani, John N. Eustis, Kenneth M. Friedman, Thomas J. Gross, Robert Kane, David J. McGoff, David O. Moses, David B. Nelson, Robert Rabson, David M. Richman, Howard Rohm, Peter H. Salmon-Cox, Robert L. San Martin, Alan J. Streb, Linda G. Stuntz, Denise F. Swink, Donald K. Walter, and Edward R. Williams, U.S. Department of Energy; Earl Gavett and Norton D. Strommen, U.S. Department of Agriculture; Robert Flaak, Richard Morgenstern, Barry Solomon, and Dennis Tirpak, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Linda Berry, Roger Carlemith, Robin Cantor, Phil Fairchild, William Fulkerson, Ed Hillsman, Eric Hirst, Michael Kuliasha, Jack Ranney, John Reed, David Reister, Marty Schweizter, Robert Van Hook, and Robert Wendt, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Brandt Anderson, Sam Berman, William Carroll, Joan Daisey, Rick Diamond, Don Grether, Ashok Gadgil, Arlon Hunt, Joseph Klems, Jon Koomey, Mark Levine, Arthur Rosenfeld, Michael Rubin, Steve Selkowitz, Michael Wahlig, and Fred W~nkelmann, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory; Don M. Rote, Argonne National Laboratory; W. Bradford Ashton and Jae A. Edmonds, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory; Stanley Bull, Solar Energy Research Institute; John Facey, National Aeronautics and Space Administration; David L. Bodde, Robert A. Coppock, Andrew C. Lemer, and Lawrence E. McCray, National Research Council. X1

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CONTENTS HIGHLIGHTS e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e e e 1 STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS: KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS e e e e e e e e ~ e e ~ ~ ~ ~ e e e e e e e End-Use Sector Analysis, 3 Current Status of Alternative Energy R&D, 5 Findings, ~ Recommendations, 6 2 BACKGROUND e ~ e e ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~ e e e e e e ~ ~ ~ ~ e Genesis of the Study, 15 Problem Description, 15 The Global Context, 21 Notes and References, 23 A FRAMEWORK FOR PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTING ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT............. R&D at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2S Energy R&D Outside the DOE, 27 Lessons from R&D Programs and Instruments, 28 Technology Development and Applications in Other Nations, 31 Technology-Adoption Process, 31 Attaining Low-GHG Emissions, 32 Role of R&D, 32 Energy Policy and GHGs, 33 Role of the Private Sector, 34 Management of Federal Energy R&D, 36 Alternative Budget Strategies, 37 Leveraging Federal Investments Globally, 38 Strategy Options, 39 Notes and References, 43 4 POTENTIAL FOR REDUCING EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES. Electric Power, 46 Transportation, 67 Residential and Commercial Buildings, 80 Industry, 99 Addendum: Biomass for Energy and Feedstocks, 114 Notes and References, 117 Bibliography, 123 . . . x~

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List of Tables Key Atmospheric Trace Gases Whose Concentrations are Increasing Table 3-1 Budget Authority for DOE Civilian Energy R&D Programs Table 3-2 Government and Private Sector Roles in Energy R&D and Technology Innovation Table 4-1 1988 U.S. Electric Power Generation Table 4-2 DOE Advanced Reactor and Magnetic Fusion Appropriations Table 4-3 Criteria and Issues for the International Study on Advanced Reactors Table 4-4 Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions by Mode in the U. S. Transportation Sector, 1987 Table 4-5 Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions from Automobiles and Light Trucks: Illustrative Scenarios for the Year 2000 Table 4-6 Carbon Emissions from the Transportation Sector: Four Illustrative Scenarios for the Year 2050 Table 4-7 Current Energy Use in the Buildings Sector Table 4-8 Current C02 Emissions by the Buildings Sector Table 4-9 Potential Contribution of Building Technologies/Practices to Reduction of GHG Emissions Table 4-10 Space Heating Equipment Seasonal Performance Factor Table 4-11 Space Cooling Equipment Seasonal Performance Factor Table 4-12 Potential CO2 Reductions in the Buildings Sector Table 4-13 Fossil Fuel Use and Carbon Emissions by U.S. Manufacturing Industries, 1985 Table 4-14 Estimates of Energy Efficiency Potential by Industry, 1990-2020 XIV

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List of Figures Figure 2-1 Sources of GHGs. Energy production and use constitute the largest human source of greenhouse gases, but other activities are also significant. Figure 2 Historical variation in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Figure 2-3 GHGs responsible for increases in the greenhouse effect worldwide. Figure 4-1 Reduction strategies for Gags emitted in the electric power sector. xv

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