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4 POTE=IAL FOR EDUCING EMI88ION8 OF G=E=008E GASES The potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production and use of energy are analyzed in this chapter from the standpoint of four market sectors: electric power, transportation, residential/commercial buildings, and industry. A key part of this analysis is the identification of alternative energy technology options to meet specific service demands in the respective market sectors such that the technology application is accompanied by significant reductions in the quantity of GHGs emitted per unit of service provided, compared to current practice. In this sense the electric power sector is concerned with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity to all users; the industry sector is concerned with the manufacture of all products, including fuels; the transportation sector is concerned with technologies to move people and goods; and the residential/commercial sector is concerned with the design of buildings for all sectors as well as with the provision of services within the building envelope (space conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, etc.) and the efficient utilization of the pertinent technologies. The time frames of relevance to this study include the near- term period through the year 20OO and the long-term one that goes to the year 2050 and beyond. Each sector analysis encompasses actions for achieving commercial adoption (implementation) in the near term of promising energy technologies for which essentially no R&D is required and simultaneously identifying R&D needs, priorities, and implementation strategies with the potential for high payoff over the long-term horizon. Recommendations are formulated within the confines of activities and services relevant to each sector and are expressed in terms of selective changes to the current federal energy R&D agenda. However, no specific GHG emission reduction objectives versus time have been postulated for the technology-adoption actions that are recommended. Most of the substance of this report is based on the experience and expertise of the members of the committee and panels and on information obtained from various sources (see Acknowledgments). When appropriate, the committee and panels made use of prior studies on energy technologies for reducing GIG emissions, (see Notes and References and Bibliography at the end of this chapter). In parallel with the current study, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) national laboratories were preparing white papers on energy efficiency, renewable energy, global climate change, and technology transfer for consideration in the national energy strategy. While these papers were not all available to the committee and the panels during their deliberations, they are cited in the Bibliography. 45

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ELECTRIC POWER Energy Ose and GIG Emissions The electric power sector has the potential to produce and deliver electricity essentially free of GHG emissions, primarily CO2. Currently, however, electricity is generated worldwide predominantly from fossil fuels, with coal being the dominant fuel choice. Non-CO2-emitting electricity-generating technologies based on nuclear fission reactors, renewable sources, and geothermal energy are commercially available and technically could supply the world's energy needs. Because of unfavorable economics as well as environmental, health, and safety concerns, however, it is by no means clear that these technologies could be deployed on the scale required without substantial research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) and costs. The transition from coal to these non-COg-emitting sources will involve major changes in the operating and performance criteria applied to the selection and deployment of generating technologies in energy markets served by the electric utilities and in the economy as a whole. The electric power equipment that is in place in the United States and that supplied power in 1988 is shown in Table 4-1. The major source of CO2 (over 85 percent) is from coal because of its high carbon content per British thermal unit and its use in base- load operations. Electricity production results in the annual emission of over 450 million metric tons of carbon (MTC) annually as CO2 and only a relatively small amount of other GHGs. Hence, this chapter is primarily concerned with measures and R&D strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in the electric power sector. Maj or Targets for Attention A CO2-free electricity supply system is feasible based on the technology available today. Such technology is currently uneconomical or unacceptable to large segments of our society. The social and environmental impacts of these technologies and the related political and regulatory factors are as critical as technical options if CO2 emissions are to be significantly reduced. Unless these factors are appropriately addressed, the money allocated to "solving" technical problems will be wasted. For a significant reduction in GHG emissions, demand for electricity must be reduced and an effective generating strategy implemented. The alternative pathways are shown in Figure 4-1. 46

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Such a strategy would aim to increase the relative percentage of electricity produced by non-CO2-emitting generation options. In the near term use of energy from existing alternative resources would be maximized. In the longer term the strategy would deploy alternative generation options for new plants and retrofits, coupled with an environmental dispatch strategy to use all generating capacity in the most environmentally effective manner. Approaches that could help reduce CO2 emissions are listed below for the near and long term. Significant reductions of CO2 emission from current levels may be possible in the near term if the following actions are implemented between now and the year 2000: Increase end-use efficiency in all end-use sectors by aggressive R&D and demand-side management programs. Increase nuclear power plant availability from international practice current 64 percent to the highest percent to 85 percent). the (75 Resolve the controversies that are currently delaying operation of those nuclear generation facilities that are complete or nearing completion. Increase the efficiency of existing fossil fuel units by improved operation and maintenance. Cofire natural gas with coal and substitute natural gas for coal to the extent it is available. Encourage the installation of cogeneration units to increase the overall efficiency of combined heat and electricity production. Improve existing transmission and distribution facilities (with both alternating current and direct current additions) to increase the efficiency of the network and permit greater gains from a larger and more efficient environmental dispatch. ~ Adopt environmental feasible. dispatch approach of power when 48

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Aggressive development of near-commercial technologies between now and the year 2025 will assure that non-CO2-emitting facilities will be available for installation in the post-2025 period. Their deployment could eliminate emissions of GHGs from the electric power sector by 2050. The long-term actions are as follows: Sustain aggressive end-use efficiency improvements In all sectors to offset growth in the demand for electricity. Develop and commercialize one or more advanced nuclear power reactors that are acceptable to the global market. Develop and commercialize renewables to the extent feasible. ~ Improve the efficiency of existing hydra installations by replacing inefficient facilities with modern high-efficiency equipment. ~ Retire CO2-emitting power generation equipment as rapidly as non-or low-emitt~ng alternatives can be installed. Promote regulations to encourage adoption of non- or low-CO2-emitting generation facilities. Availability of Technology to Reduce GAG Emissions The technology evaluations in this chapter are subdivided into the primary energy resources-fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and renewable/unconventional energy. In addition, transmission, distribution, and storage technologies are addressed. Fossil Fuels The new fossil fuel technologies under development that will use coal are a set of fluidized bed technologies (atmospheric fluidized bed, pressurized fluidized bed,) and the integrated coal gasification, gas turbine, combined cycle system (IGCC). 2 The overall thermal efficiencies of these new coal-based technologies are equal to or better than the existing pulverized coal plants and can have reduced emissions of environmental pollutants (SOx, NOx, and particulates). Of the new coal-based technologies, the IGCC system has the highest efficiency and the lowest emission of environmental pollutants. Reduction in CO2 is directly related to thermal efficiency gains ; thus, the IGCC has the potential for being the preferred coal-based technology considering all environmental emissions, including CO2. 50

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To reduce CO2 from natural gas and coal combustion, the development of improved combined cycles and other advanced gas- turbine-based power technologies is essential. Clean coal technology is becoming more important and will have an impact on all new coal-fired power plants and many existing ones. Some of the clean coal technologies will achieve major reductions in SOx emissions at the expense of power plant efficiencies and a consequent increase of CO2 emissions. Research In these clean coal technologies should favor avenues that do not carry penalties in the form of increased CO2 emissions. Environmental research and regulations should therefore include GHG emissions as a criterion in evaluating new approaches to coal combustion. Capture and Disposal of CO2 Although capture of CO2 emissions from combustion gases can be achieved by conventional technolog~es-with assessment of energy penalties In the 15 to 30 percent range 3'4 - this is only a small part of the problem. Disposal of CO2 is likely to be much more costly and may ultimately impose a prohibiting energy penalty. A number of options have been proposed, such as disposal in the deep oceans or in abandoned gas wells. Their feasibility needs to be assessed. Nuclear Energy Nuclear power is an important alternative to energy from fossil fuels and a potentially important component in a low-CO2 emission strategy. It can be an efficient source of energy capable of generating electricity and/or process heat. Light water reactor (LWR) technology is highly developed and mature in comparison to other renewable or nuclear alternatives, but continued deployment of nuclear technology in the United States is fraught with hurdles that impede nuclear power as a major option for reducing CO2 emissions. Two technical approaches to these problems are often suggested: one based on evolutionary improvements to existing LWR designs and the other based on new designs, almost revolutionary in approach. Proponents of an evolutionary strategy believe that the option of a major shift away from conventional LWR technology is unrealistic and illusory. They argue that it is wiser to draw on the great store of LWR experience in order to move incrementally toward an improved LWR system than to forgo this experience in favor of an unproven concepts. Moreover, they point out the great difficulty of changing the technological course of an industry that for over three decades has been so strongly oriented toward LWR systems. 51

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On the other hand, the evolutionary approach by its very nature may be insufficient to address the fundamental problems that have arisen with nuclear power in the United States. A radical technological shift need not entail a completely new start, for a good deal of the existing LWR technology base is likely to be transferrable irrespective of the direction of the shift. In the case of LWR, liquid metal reactor (LMR), and modular high-temperature gas reactor (MHTGR) systems, relevant experience exists both in the United States and overseas. Finally, disaffection toward conventional LWR technology in the electric utility industry and among the general public may be so strong, and the managerial and regulatory difficulties of the existing industry so great, that only a radical technological change could help restore the nuclear option. Basic changes In the assumptions and policies of industry and government will be required to stimulate a more vigorous technological response to the current problems facing nuclear power. Current Advanced Reactor Development. Recent technology advances achieved by various programs conducted or sponsored by DOE, the U.S. private sector, the European community, Japan, and the U.S.S.R. are leading to the development of new generations of reactors. Most of the advanced reactors fall into one of six types: evolutionary large light water reactors (LWRs), advanced passive medium-sized LWRs, conceptually new LWRs, heavy water reactors (HWRs), modular high-temperature gas reactors (MHTGRs), and liquid metal reactors (LMRs). Fusion Technology. Of the several approaches investigated since controlled thermonuclear research started, two stand out as the most promising: the inertial laser fusion reactor and the Tokomak magnetic fusion. The bulk of the effort on laser fusion is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense, while the Tokomak is mostly funded by DOE. In both the United States (Tokomak Fusion Test Reactor) and the European commune ty (Joint European Torus) , fusion reactors are within a factor of 2 to 3 from the break-even point. This represents a millionfold improvement over a span of 20 years. However, even if a self-sustained experimental reactor is demonstrated, fusion reactors face serious engineering problems related to superconducting coil designs, materials issues of radiation damage, and technology of energy 52

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extraction. Conservatively, magnetic fusion reactors will not be a significant component of the U.S. electricity generation mix before the year 2050. Institutional and Technological Constraints. Among the major institutional deterrents to large-scale introduction of nuclear power, foremost are high cost, poor public acceptance for reasons of safety, and poor fit with utility systems. If nuclear power is to be developed on a large scale, additional institutional changes may be required to make the nuclear energy system diversion resistant, including internationalization of certain parts of the nuclear fuel cycle. Finding institutional arrangements that will both make the nuclear system acceptably diversion resistant and politically acceptable will be challenging and will probably require major international cooperation. Renewables Renewable technologies can be classified as renewables with inherent storage capacity (hydra, biomass, geothermal, ocean thermal) and intermittent renewables (wind, solar thermal, photovoltaics). Aside from hydra, renewables In 1988 accounted for 0.4 percent of electricity generation in the United States. Renewables, however, offer the potential for significant exploitation in the future, with environmental benefits and promising economics. Bydro. Some 64 gigawatts (GW) of conventional hydra and 17 GW of pumped storage capacity have been developed in the United States. The latent potential has been estimated as 75 GW conventional and 15 GW pumped storage, but the environmental costs of this development could be severe.s Plant efficiencies could be improved with new variable-speed, constant-frequency generators. The national potential for such upgrades needs to be determined. Biomass. Burning biomass grown renewably makes no net contribution to atmospheric CO2. Most of the present 8 GW of installed biomass generating capacity in the United States is based on the steam Rankine cycle and is concentrated in the pulp and paper industry, where the fuel used is low-cost wood wastes. Some pressurized airblown gasifiers closely coupled to various steam-injected aeroderivative gas turbine cycles appear to be well suited to biomass applications. The coal gasifier/ combined cycle technology demonstrated at Cool Water, California, 5- may have lower unit capital costs with biomass versions. This may be because biomass generally contains negligible sulfur, the removal of which is costly for coal systems. If these potential advantages could be realized, electricity produced from biomass could be competitive with 53

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electricity from conventional coal steam-electric plants in situations where sustainable management of the resource is cost- effective .6 Geothermal. The U.S. geothermal industry is presently producing 3 GW of baseload electricity. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated the total U.S. hydrothermal resource usable for power generation to be 2,400 quads, located primarily in the western states, Alaska, and Hawaii. The U.S. geopressured resource-the energy in overpressured reservoirs of hot water that contain dissolved methane-is estimated to be 180,000 quads. If heat mining of deep hot dry rocks can be developed, between 10 and 106 quads of energy might be available. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC). Potential commercial opportunities of OTEC are primarily outside the United States. Basic research on biofouling and corrosion in marine environments, exploratory research on low-temperature differential thermal cycles, and systems studies relating OTEC to other non-G~G- emitting technologies may prove valuable. The committee did not evaluate OTEC programs and has no recommendations on what R&D is most appropriate. Wind. There is 1. 5 GW of installed wind capacity in California. There has been a fourfold reduction In the cost of wind power from the best new wind farms since 1981. Further cost reductions could arise with new technological advances in composite materials, manufacturing processes, and "smart" controls. The wind resource is less dependent on latitude than other solar sources. The accessible U.S. resource has been estimated to be 1,000 times the electricity currently produced by wind.` 801ar Thermal. For high solar insolation areas, solar thermal-electric technology is promising. The parabolic trough is the most mature solar thermal-electric technology with 200 MW of capacity currently operating on a utility grid in California in the hybrid mode (with natural gas backup). Some 80 MW of additional capacity is under construction in the United States and 320 MW is planned. Variants on solar thermal technology include the parabolic dish/dish-mounted engine generator and the heliostat/central receiver system. Photovoltaics {PV}. The price of photovoltaic modules has fallen from about $120 per peak watt (in nominal dollars) in the early 197 Os to the range of $4 to $5 per peak watt today. Attractive features of PV technology are that no cooling water is needed for flat plate collector systems and prospective economics are favorable at small scale. 54

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One approach to reducing costs further involves the use of thin films, which promise very low unit capital costs because of the tiny amounts of active materials involved and the suitability of the technology to mass production techniques. Amorphous silicon, copper Indian diselenide, and cadmium telluride are the leading competing thin-film technologies.9930 Alternatively, high-efficiency crystalline cells could be used in tracking and concentrating collectors. R&D Needs ~d Priorities Following are broad guidelines for developing an effective set of options for generating electricity with technologies that will significantly reduce emissions of GHGs: The most important and immediately ef fective option is increasing energy productivity that is beneficial in addition to its potential for GHG reduction. A number of nonfoss'1 energy options are possible for GHG emission reduction in power generation. All technically feasible and environmentally acceptable options should be pursued. A multiple option strategy in energy policy is critical for its success. Increased and consistent R&D funding is required to develop and deploy the most promising low- or non-CO2-producing electric generation technologies. While increased funding is necessary, it is not sufficient. New mechanisms are needed involving government, industry, and the electric utilities. Time constraints for this study did not allow the development of such mechanisms . In general, however, R&D efforts should be concentrated to the extent possible in the private sector either by direct funding of private performers or indirectly by policies that increase private returns for publicly needed R&D. Early action in developing and implementing electricity supply strategies will help minimize later difficulties because the time from technology conception to its widespread adoption is measured in decades. ~ The trend toward a more electric future, as well as the fact that most nonfossil energy options produce electricity, indicates the need for and benefit of research on future electric systems-storage, interactive load control, increased efficiency, and regional interconnections. 55

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NOTES AND REFERENCES Annual Energy Review, 1978, Report DOE/EIA-0384, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C., May 1989. Technical Assessment Guide, Vol. 1, Report P-4463-SR, Electric Supply, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, Calif., 1986. 3. D. Golom}', et al., Feasibility, Modeling. and Economics of Sequestering Power Plant CON Emissions in Deep Ocean, Report MIT-EL-89-003, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass., December, 1989. 4. K. Block, C. Henricks, and W. Turkenburg, The Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal in the Reduction of the Greenhouse Effect, IEA/OECD Expert Seminar on Energy Technologies for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases, Paris, France, April 13- 14, 1989. Hydroelectric Power Resources in the United States, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C., 1988. R. H. Williams and E. D. Larson, T. B. Johansson, B. Bodlund, and R.~. Williams, feds.), "Expanding Roles for Gas Turbines In Power Generation," in Electricity: Efficient End-Use and New Generation Technologies, and Their Planning Implications, Lund University Press, Lund, Sweden, 1989. 7 . Meridian Corporation, Characterization of U.S. Energy Resources and Reserves, DOE Contract DE-AC01-86CE30844 , June 1989, p. A-29,. 8. Carl J. Weinberg, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Ramon, Calif., personal communication, 1990. 9. D. Carlson (Vice President and General Manager of the Thin- Film Division, Solarex, Newtown, Pa.), "Low-Cost Power from Th~n-Film Photovoltaics," T. B. Johansson, B. Bodlund, and R. H. Williams, teds., in Electricity: Efficient End-Use and New Generation Technologies and Their Planning Implications, Lund University Press, Lund, Sweden, 1989. 10. K. Zweibel and H. S. Ullal, "Th~n-Film Photovoltaics," paper prepared for the 24th Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference, Washington, D.C. , August 6-11, 1989. 117

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11. Year 1991 Congressional Budget Request, 0398 U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, 1990. Report DOE/MA- O.C. , January 12. D. J. McGroff, presentation to the National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, October 5-7, 1989. 13. United States Energy Policy, 1980-1988, Report DOE/S-0068, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., October 1988. 14 J. D. Griffith, presentations to the National Research Council Committee on Future Nuclear Power Development, October 18 and November 13, 1989. 15. National Research Council, Pacing the U.S. Magnetic Fusion Program, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., June 1989. 16. S. C. Davis, D. B. Shonka, et al., Transportation Energy Data Rm~k. FH ; t ; On 1n Resort ORNL-6S65 . Oak Ridae National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1989. 17. D. L. Bleviss, The New Oil Crisis and Fuel Economy TechnologiesPreparing the Light Transportation Industry for the l990s, Quorum Books, New York, 1988 . 18 . M. Ross, "Energy and Transportation in the United States" Annual Review of Energy, 14: 131-171, J. M. Hollander, R. H. Socolow, and D. Sternl~ght, D. teds.), 1989. 19. HolLberg, P. D., et al., 1988 GRI Baseline Projection and U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, Strategic Analysis and Energy Forecasting Division, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill ., 1988 . 20. Nonresidential Rnildinas Enerov Consumption Survey: Characteristics of Commercial Buildings 1986, DOE/EIA-0246 (86), U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C., 1988. 21. J. Bluestein and H. DeLima, Regional Characteristics and Heating/Coolina Requirements for Single-Family Detached Houses, GRI-85/0164, Applied Management Sciences, Inc., for Gas Research Institute, August 1985. 22. W. Q. Zwack, et al., Review and Comparison of GRI Single- Fam~ly Detached House Heating and Cooling Loads. GRI- 86/0163, Applied Management Sciences, Inc., for Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill., December 1986. 118

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23. E. Hirst, Cooperation and Community _ Conservation, Comprehensive Report, Hood River Conservation Proj eat, Contract DE-AC-79-8 3BP11287, U. S . Department of Energy, Washington, D. C., 1987 . 24. W. D. Houle, "Control System Usability, " Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, In Proceedings of the 12th World Eneroy Engineering Congress, 25. R. Anderson and T. Hartman, "Controls of the Future," Heating/Piping/A' r Conditioning, November 1988, p.59-61. 26. D. P. F~oriono, "An Application of State-of-the-Art HVAC and Building Systems," Energy Ena. 85~6~:6-31, 1988. 27. V. E. Gilmore, "Superwindows," Popular Sci., March 1986. 28. T. Miyairi, "Introduction to Small Gas Engine-Driven Heat Pumps in Japan-History and Marketing," ASHRAE Trans. Vol. 95, Part 1, 1989. 2 9 . C . E . French, F. E. Jacob, T. A. Klausing, and T. R. Roose, ''Reciprocating Natural Gas-Engine Vapor-Compression Heat Pump, " in Proceedings of the 1989 International Gas Research Conference ~ Vol . IT : Residential & Commercial Utilization, Tokyo, Japan, November 6-9, 1989 . 3 0 . American Publ ic Power Association, "Air-Source Heat Pumps Evolve ~ " Air Conditioning, Heating r and Refrigeration News, October 1989, p.12. 31. D. S. Teji, "HVAC Egu~pment Replacement Study-Energy Savings Three Ways," 12th World Energy Engineering Congress (WEEC) Product Showcase, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. 32. Sylvania Lamps, An Energy-Saving Guide for All Your Lighting Needs, GTE Products Corporation, Sylvania Lighting Center, 1989/90. 33. R. R. Verderber, "Advanced Lighting Technologies Products," Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, in Proceedings of the 12th World Energy_Engineering Congress, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. 34. D. Goldstein, Deriving Power Budgets for Energy-Efficient Lighting in Non-residential Buildings, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Washington, D.C., 1988. 119

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35. Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, presentation to the Buildings Sector Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 14-15, 1989. 36. K. G. Davidson, "Advances in HVAC Alternatives'. Heatina/Pip~na/Air Conditioning, September 1987, p. 59- 68. 37 . J. R. Watt and A. A. L' ncoln, "Refrigeration Systems Enhancement Thru Evaporative Cooling, " Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, in Proceedings of the 12th World Energy Engineering Congress, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. 38. 1990-1994 Research and Development Plan and 1990 Research and Development Program, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill., 1989. 39. Results of Appraisal of GRI 1990-1994 R&D, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill., 1989. 40. If increased natural gas use is accompanied by significant (5 percent) leakage, the benefits of substituting natural gas for other fuels will be lost, since methane, the primary constituent of natural gas, is also a greenhouse gas. However, recent studies show leakage on the order of percent or less (W. M. Burnett, Gas Research Institute, personal communication, 1990~. 41. Household Energy Consumption and Expenditures. Part 1: National Data, DOE/EIA-0321/1, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Of f ice of Energy Markets and End Use, Washington, D. C., 1987 . 42 . P. J. Camej o and D. C. Hittle, "An Expert System for the Design of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Condition' ng Systems" , ASHRAE Trans ., Vol . 95 , Part 1 , 1989 . 43. H. Ruderman, M. D. Levine, and J . McMahon , "The Behavior of the Market for Energy Efficiency in Residential Appliances Including heating and Cooling Equipment, 'I Energy Jour., 8 (1): 101-123, ~ 987. 44. National user facilities are physical locations at government laboratory es where potential users of new technologies, ~ nclud i ng industry manuf acturers, prof es s tonal associations, and other interested groups, can take advantage of a facility's staff and services on an as- available basis. The facilities conduct primarily nonproprietary testing and disseminate results widely. 120

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They serve as R&D facilities where future advancements are pursued in parallel with implementation of existing technologies. Technology areas appropriate for user facilities include windows, roofing, lighting, construction materials, and operation and maintenance practices. User facilities must be established in close cooperation with appropriate trade organizations and must place high priority on availability to user groups. National user facilities exist at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory for windows and Oak Ridge National Laboratory for roofing. The National Institute of Standards and Technology provides a user facility in the areas of thermal performance of walls; plaything and water heating; appliance efficiency; commissioning, operating, and maintenance procedures for energy management and control systems; and durability of construction materials. Seattle City Light operates a user facility for regional users on lighting. 45. R. Sant and S. Carhart, Eight Great Energy Myths: The Least- Cost Energy Strategy-1978-2000. Energy Productivity Report No. 4, Mellon Institute, Pittsburgh, Pa., 1981. 46. R. Diamond, and P. du Pont, "Building Managers: The Actors Behind the Scene," Home Energy, March/April 1988. 47. Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey: Consumption of Energy in 1985, Report DOE/EIA-0512~85), U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C., November, 1988. 48. L. Lamarre, "New Push for Energy Efficiency," EPRI J., 15(3):4-17, 1990. 49. J. Ranney, (Oak Ridge National Laboratory), presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 30, 1989. 50. D. L. Klass, "The U.S. Biofuels Industry,' International Renewable Energy Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii, September 18, 1988. 51. D. Pimental et al., "Food Versus Biomass Fuel: Socioeconomic and Environmental Impacts in the United States, Brazil, India and Kenya," Adv. Food Res. 32: 185, 1988. 52. Report on Biomass Energy, Energy Research Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 1981. 53. Energy from Biological Processes, Office of Technology Assessment, U. S. Congress, Washington, D.C., July 1980. 121

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54. S. R. Bull (Solar Energy Research Institute), presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 9, 1989. SS. T. D. Hayes, (Gas Research Institute), presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 9, 1989. 56. R. T. Fraley, "Genetic Engineering in Crop Agriculture," background paper for Office of Technology Assessment, U. S. Congress, Washington, D.C., October 10, 1989. 57. D. L. Pulp (Ford Motor Co.), presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 9, 1989. 58. National Materials Advisory Board, National Research Council, Bioprocessing for the Energy-Efficient Production of Chemicals, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. , April 1986. 5 9 . Ethanol and pal icy Tradeof f s, _ _ Washington, D. C., January 1988. Department of Agriculture, 60. R. J. Van Hook, presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 9, 1989. 122

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BIBLIOGRAPHY In addition to the references cited, the following sources were used in the preparation of chapter 4. American Solar Energy Society, Assessment of Solar Energy Technologies, Boulder, Colo., 1989. Andrews S., "New Developments in Integrated HVAC,t' Builder, pp. 114, 120, May 1988. Brickman, P. E., "Commisioning: Why We Need It-What Are the Benefits?" ASHRAE Trans., Vol. 95, Part 1, 1989. Brodrick, J. R., Commercial Buildings, Energy_consumption, and Natural Gas Markets, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill., June 1986. Brodrick, J. R., and R. F. Patel, "Assessments of Gas-Fired Cooling Technologies for the Commercial Sector," ASHRAE Trans., Vol. 95, Part 1, 1989. Burnett, W. M. and S. D. Ban, ''Changing Prospects for Natural Gas in the United States,'' Science, 244: 305-310, April 1989 . Committee on Innovative Concepts and Approaches to Energy Conservation, Energy Engineering Board, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Research Council, Innovative Research and Development Opportunities for Energy Efficiency, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1986. DeLuchi , M. A., et al ., "Methanol vs . Natural Gas : A Comparison of Resource Supply, Performance, Emissions, Fuel Storage, Safety, Costs, and Transitions, " SAE Paper 881656, Society of Automotive Engineers, Warrendale, Pa ., 1988 . Friedlander, G. D. "Smart Structures, " Mech. Eng., 110: 78-81, October, 19 8 8 . Gopal, R., "An Evaluation Process for EMCS. Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs," in Proceedings of the 12th World Energy Engineering Congress, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. Hatfield, J. R., and B. B. Lindsay, "Development of a Gas Engine Driven Rooftop Air Conditioning Unit for the Commercial Market, 1989," Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, in Proceedings of the 12th World Energy Engineering Congress, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. 123

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