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4
POTE=IAL FOR EDUCING EMI88ION8 OF G=E=008E GASES
The potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
associated with the production and use of energy are analyzed in
this chapter from the standpoint of four market sectors: electric
power, transportation, residential/commercial buildings, and
industry. A key part of this analysis is the identification of
alternative energy technology options to meet specific service
demands in the respective market sectors such that the technology
application is accompanied by significant reductions in the
quantity of GHGs emitted per unit of service provided, compared
to current practice. In this sense the electric power sector is
concerned with the generation, transmission, and distribution of
electricity to all users; the industry sector is concerned with the
manufacture of all products, including fuels; the transportation
sector is concerned with technologies to move people and goods; and
the residential/commercial sector is concerned with the design of
buildings for all sectors as well as with the provision of services
within the building envelope (space conditioning, lighting,
refrigeration, etc.) and the efficient utilization of the pertinent
technologies.
The time frames of relevance to this study include the near-
term period through the year 20OO and the long-term one that goes
to the year 2050 and beyond. Each sector analysis encompasses
actions for achieving commercial adoption (implementation) in the
near term of promising energy technologies for which essentially
no R&D is required and simultaneously identifying R&D needs,
priorities, and implementation strategies with the potential for
high payoff over the long-term horizon. Recommendations are
formulated within the confines of activities and services relevant
to each sector and are expressed in terms of selective changes to
the current federal energy R&D agenda. However, no specific GHG
emission reduction objectives versus time have been postulated for
the technology-adoption actions that are recommended.
Most of the substance of this report is based on the
experience and expertise of the members of the committee and panels
and on information obtained from various sources (see
Acknowledgments). When appropriate, the committee and panels made
use of prior studies on energy technologies for reducing GIG
emissions, (see Notes and References and Bibliography at the end
of this chapter). In parallel with the current study, the U.S.
Department of Energy's (DOE) national laboratories were preparing
white papers on energy efficiency, renewable energy, global climate
change, and technology transfer for consideration in the national
energy strategy. While these papers were not all available to the
committee and the panels during their deliberations, they are cited
in the Bibliography.
45
OCR for page 46
ELECTRIC POWER
Energy Ose and GIG Emissions
The electric power sector has the potential to produce and
deliver electricity essentially free of GHG emissions, primarily
CO2. Currently, however, electricity is generated worldwide
predominantly from fossil fuels, with coal being the dominant fuel
choice. Non-CO2-emitting electricity-generating technologies based
on nuclear fission reactors, renewable sources, and geothermal
energy are commercially available and technically could supply the
world's energy needs. Because of unfavorable economics as well as
environmental, health, and safety concerns, however, it is by no
means clear that these technologies could be deployed on the scale
required without substantial research, development, and
demonstration (RD&D) and costs. The transition from coal to these
non-COg-emitting sources will involve major changes in the
operating and performance criteria applied to the selection and
deployment of generating technologies in energy markets served by
the electric utilities and in the economy as a whole.
The electric power equipment that is in place in the United
States and that supplied power in 1988 is shown in Table 4-1. The
major source of CO2 (over 85 percent) is from coal because of its
high carbon content per British thermal unit and its use in base-
load operations. Electricity production results in the annual
emission of over 450 million metric tons of carbon (MTC) annually
as CO2 and only a relatively small amount of other GHGs. Hence,
this chapter is primarily concerned with measures and R&D
strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in the electric power sector.
Maj or Targets for Attention
A CO2-free electricity supply system is feasible based on the
technology available today. Such technology is currently
uneconomical or unacceptable to large segments of our society.
The social and environmental impacts of these technologies
and the related political and regulatory factors are as critical
as technical options if CO2 emissions are to be significantly
reduced. Unless these factors are appropriately addressed, the
money allocated to "solving" technical problems will be wasted.
For a significant reduction in GHG emissions, demand for
electricity must be reduced and an effective generating strategy
implemented. The alternative pathways are shown in Figure 4-1.
46
OCR for page 47
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Such a strategy would aim to increase the relative percentage of
electricity produced by non-CO2-emitting generation options. In
the near term use of energy from existing alternative resources
would be maximized. In the longer term the strategy would deploy
alternative generation options for new plants and retrofits,
coupled with an environmental dispatch strategy to use all
generating capacity in the most environmentally effective manner.
Approaches that could help reduce CO2 emissions are listed below
for the near and long term.
Significant reductions of CO2 emission from current levels
may be possible in the near term if the following actions are
implemented between now and the year 2000:
· Increase end-use efficiency in all end-use sectors by
aggressive R&D and demand-side management programs.
Increase nuclear power plant availability from
international practice
current 64 percent to the highest
percent to 85 percent).
the
(75
· Resolve the controversies that are currently delaying
operation of those nuclear generation facilities that are complete
or nearing completion.
· Increase the efficiency of existing fossil fuel units
by improved operation and maintenance.
· Cofire natural gas with coal and substitute natural gas
for coal to the extent it is available.
· Encourage the installation of cogeneration units to
increase the overall efficiency of combined heat and electricity
production.
· Improve existing transmission and distribution
facilities (with both alternating current and direct current
additions) to increase the efficiency of the network and permit
greater gains from a larger and more efficient environmental
dispatch.
~ Adopt environmental
feasible.
dispatch approach of power when
48
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Aggressive development of near-commercial technologies
between now and the year 2025 will assure that non-CO2-emitting
facilities will be available for installation in the post-2025
period. Their deployment could eliminate emissions of GHGs from
the electric power sector by 2050. The long-term actions are as
follows:
· Sustain aggressive end-use efficiency improvements In
all sectors to offset growth in the demand for electricity.
· Develop and commercialize one or more advanced nuclear
power reactors that are acceptable to the global market.
· Develop and commercialize renewables to the extent
feasible.
~ Improve the efficiency of existing hydra installations
by replacing inefficient facilities with modern high-efficiency
equipment.
~ Retire CO2-emitting power generation equipment as
rapidly as non-or low-emitt~ng alternatives can be installed.
· Promote regulations to encourage adoption of non- or
low-CO2-emitting generation facilities.
Availability of Technology to Reduce GAG Emissions
The technology evaluations in this chapter are subdivided
into the primary energy resources-fossil fuels, nuclear energy,
and renewable/unconventional energy. In addition, transmission,
distribution, and storage technologies are addressed.
Fossil Fuels
The new fossil fuel technologies under development that will
use coal are a set of fluidized bed technologies (atmospheric
fluidized bed, pressurized fluidized bed,) and the integrated coal
gasification, gas turbine, combined cycle system (IGCC). 2 The
overall thermal efficiencies of these new coal-based technologies
are equal to or better than the existing pulverized coal plants
and can have reduced emissions of environmental pollutants (SOx,
NOx, and particulates).
Of the new coal-based technologies, the IGCC system has the
highest efficiency and the lowest emission of environmental
pollutants. Reduction in CO2 is directly related to thermal
efficiency gains ; thus, the IGCC has the potential for being the
preferred coal-based technology considering all environmental
emissions, including CO2.
50
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To reduce CO2 from natural gas and coal combustion, the
development of improved combined cycles and other advanced gas-
turbine-based power technologies is essential.
Clean coal technology is becoming more important and will
have an impact on all new coal-fired power plants and many
existing ones. Some of the clean coal technologies will achieve
major reductions in SOx emissions at the expense of power plant
efficiencies and a consequent increase of CO2 emissions. Research
In these clean coal technologies should favor avenues that do not
carry penalties in the form of increased CO2 emissions.
Environmental research and regulations should therefore
include GHG emissions as a criterion in evaluating new approaches
to coal combustion.
Capture and Disposal of CO2
Although capture of CO2 emissions from combustion gases can
be achieved by conventional technolog~es-with assessment of energy
penalties In the 15 to 30 percent range 3'4 - this is only a small
part of the problem. Disposal of CO2 is likely to be much more
costly and may ultimately impose a prohibiting energy penalty.
A number of options have been proposed, such as disposal in the
deep oceans or in abandoned gas wells. Their feasibility needs
to be assessed.
Nuclear Energy
Nuclear power is an important alternative to energy from
fossil fuels and a potentially important component in a low-CO2
emission strategy. It can be an efficient source of energy
capable of generating electricity and/or process heat. Light
water reactor (LWR) technology is highly developed and mature in
comparison to other renewable or nuclear alternatives, but
continued deployment of nuclear technology in the United States
is fraught with hurdles that impede nuclear power as a major
option for reducing CO2 emissions.
Two technical approaches to these problems are often
suggested: one based on evolutionary improvements to existing LWR
designs and the other based on new designs, almost
revolutionary in approach. Proponents of an evolutionary strategy
believe that the option of a major shift away from conventional
LWR technology is unrealistic and illusory. They argue that it
is wiser to draw on the great store of LWR experience in order to
move incrementally toward an improved LWR system than to forgo
this experience in favor of an unproven concepts. Moreover,
they point out the great difficulty of changing the technological
course of an industry that for over three decades has been so
strongly oriented toward LWR systems.
51
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On the other hand, the evolutionary approach by its very
nature may be insufficient to address the fundamental problems
that have arisen with nuclear power in the United States. A
radical technological shift need not entail a completely new
start, for a good deal of the existing LWR technology base is
likely to be transferrable irrespective of the direction of the
shift. In the case of LWR, liquid metal reactor (LMR), and
modular high-temperature gas reactor (MHTGR) systems, relevant
experience exists both in the United States and overseas.
Finally, disaffection toward conventional LWR technology in
the electric utility industry and among the general public may
be so strong, and the managerial and regulatory difficulties
of the existing industry so great, that only a radical
technological change could help restore the nuclear option.
Basic changes In the assumptions and policies of industry
and government will be required to stimulate a more vigorous
technological response to the current problems facing nuclear
power.
Current Advanced Reactor Development. Recent technology
advances achieved by various programs conducted or sponsored
by DOE, the U.S. private sector, the European community, Japan,
and the U.S.S.R. are leading to the development of new
generations of reactors. Most of the advanced reactors fall
into one of six types:
evolutionary large light water reactors (LWRs),
advanced passive medium-sized LWRs,
conceptually new LWRs,
heavy water reactors (HWRs),
modular high-temperature gas reactors (MHTGRs), and
liquid metal reactors (LMRs).
Fusion Technology. Of the several approaches investigated
since controlled thermonuclear research started, two stand out as
the most promising: the inertial laser fusion reactor and the
Tokomak magnetic fusion. The bulk of the effort on laser fusion
is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense, while the Tokomak
is mostly funded by DOE. In both the United States (Tokomak
Fusion Test Reactor) and the European commune ty (Joint European
Torus) , fusion reactors are within a factor of 2 to 3 from the
break-even point. This represents a millionfold improvement over
a span of 20 years. However, even if a self-sustained
experimental reactor is demonstrated, fusion reactors face serious
engineering problems related to superconducting coil designs,
materials issues of radiation damage, and technology of energy
52
OCR for page 53
extraction. Conservatively, magnetic fusion reactors will not be
a significant component of the U.S. electricity generation mix
before the year 2050.
Institutional and Technological Constraints. Among the major
institutional deterrents to large-scale introduction of nuclear
power, foremost are high cost, poor public acceptance for reasons
of safety, and poor fit with utility systems. If nuclear power
is to be developed on a large scale, additional institutional
changes may be required to make the nuclear energy system
diversion resistant, including internationalization of certain
parts of the nuclear fuel cycle. Finding institutional
arrangements that will both make the nuclear system acceptably
diversion resistant and politically acceptable will be challenging
and will probably require major international cooperation.
Renewables
Renewable technologies can be classified as renewables with
inherent storage capacity (hydra, biomass, geothermal, ocean
thermal) and intermittent renewables (wind, solar thermal,
photovoltaics). Aside from hydra, renewables In 1988 accounted
for 0.4 percent of electricity generation in the United States.
Renewables, however, offer the potential for significant
exploitation in the future, with environmental benefits and
promising economics.
Bydro. Some 64 gigawatts (GW) of conventional hydra and 17
GW of pumped storage capacity have been developed in the United
States. The latent potential has been estimated as 75 GW
conventional and 15 GW pumped storage, but the environmental costs
of this development could be severe.s Plant efficiencies could be
improved with new variable-speed, constant-frequency generators.
The national potential for such upgrades needs to be determined.
Biomass. Burning biomass grown renewably makes no net
contribution to atmospheric CO2. Most of the present 8 GW of
installed biomass generating capacity in the United States is
based on the steam Rankine cycle and is concentrated in the pulp
and paper industry, where the fuel used is low-cost wood wastes.
Some pressurized airblown gasifiers closely coupled to
various steam-injected aeroderivative gas turbine cycles appear
to be well suited to biomass applications. The coal gasifier/
combined cycle technology demonstrated at Cool Water,
California, 5- may have lower unit capital costs with biomass
versions. This may be because biomass generally contains
negligible sulfur, the removal of which is costly for coal
systems. If these potential advantages could be realized,
electricity produced from biomass could be competitive with
53
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electricity from conventional coal steam-electric plants in
situations where sustainable management of the resource is cost-
effective .6
Geothermal. The U.S. geothermal industry is presently
producing 3 GW of baseload electricity. The U.S. Geological
Survey has estimated the total U.S. hydrothermal resource usable
for power generation to be 2,400 quads, located primarily in the
western states, Alaska, and Hawaii. The U.S. geopressured
resource-the energy in overpressured reservoirs of hot water that
contain dissolved methane-is estimated to be 180,000 quads. If
heat mining of deep hot dry rocks can be developed, between 10
and 106 quads of energy might be available.
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC). Potential commercial
opportunities of OTEC are primarily outside the United States.
Basic research on biofouling and corrosion in marine environments,
exploratory research on low-temperature differential thermal
cycles, and systems studies relating OTEC to other non-G~G-
emitting technologies may prove valuable. The committee did not
evaluate OTEC programs and has no recommendations on what R&D is
most appropriate.
Wind. There is 1. 5 GW of installed wind capacity in
California. There has been a fourfold reduction In the cost of
wind power from the best new wind farms since 1981. Further cost
reductions could arise with new technological advances in
composite materials, manufacturing processes, and "smart"
controls.
The wind resource is less dependent on latitude than other
solar sources. The accessible U.S. resource has been estimated
to be 1,000 times the electricity currently produced by wind.`
801ar Thermal. For high solar insolation areas, solar
thermal-electric technology is promising. The parabolic trough
is the most mature solar thermal-electric technology with 200 MW
of capacity currently operating on a utility grid in California
in the hybrid mode (with natural gas backup). Some 80 MW of
additional capacity is under construction in the United States and
320 MW is planned. Variants on solar thermal technology include
the parabolic dish/dish-mounted engine generator and the
heliostat/central receiver system.
Photovoltaics {PV}. The price of photovoltaic modules has
fallen from about $120 per peak watt (in nominal dollars) in the
early 197 Os to the range of $4 to $5 per peak watt today.
Attractive features of PV technology are that no cooling water is
needed for flat plate collector systems and prospective economics
are favorable at small scale.
54
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One approach to reducing costs further involves the use of
thin films, which promise very low unit capital costs because of
the tiny amounts of active materials involved and the suitability
of the technology to mass production techniques. Amorphous
silicon, copper Indian diselenide, and cadmium telluride are the
leading competing thin-film technologies.9930 Alternatively,
high-efficiency crystalline cells could be used in tracking and
concentrating collectors.
R&D Needs ~d Priorities
Following are broad guidelines for developing an effective
set of options for generating electricity with technologies that
will significantly reduce emissions of GHGs:
· The most important and immediately ef fective option is
increasing energy productivity that is beneficial in addition to
its potential for GHG reduction.
· A number of nonfoss'1 energy options are possible for
GHG emission reduction in power generation. All technically
feasible and environmentally acceptable options should be pursued.
A multiple option strategy in energy policy is critical for its
success.
Increased and consistent R&D funding is required to develop
and deploy the most promising low- or non-CO2-producing electric
generation technologies. While increased funding is necessary,
it is not sufficient.
New mechanisms are needed involving government, industry, and
the electric utilities. Time constraints for this study did not
allow the development of such mechanisms . In general, however,
R&D efforts should be concentrated to the extent possible in the
private sector either by direct funding of private performers or
indirectly by policies that increase private returns for publicly
needed R&D.
· Early action in developing and implementing electricity
supply strategies will help minimize later difficulties because
the time from technology conception to its widespread adoption is
measured in decades.
~ The trend toward a more electric future, as well as the
fact that most nonfossil energy options produce electricity,
indicates the need for and benefit of research on future electric
systems-storage, interactive load control, increased efficiency,
and regional interconnections.
55
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42 . P. J. Camej o and D. C. Hittle, "An Expert System for the
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44. National user facilities are physical locations at government
laboratory es where potential users of new technologies,
~ nclud i ng industry manuf acturers, prof es s tonal
associations, and other interested groups, can take
advantage of a facility's staff and services on an as-
available basis. The facilities conduct primarily
nonproprietary testing and disseminate results widely.
120
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They serve as R&D facilities where future advancements are
pursued in parallel with implementation of existing
technologies. Technology areas appropriate for user
facilities include windows, roofing, lighting, construction
materials, and operation and maintenance practices. User
facilities must be established in close cooperation with
appropriate trade organizations and must place high
priority on availability to user groups. National user
facilities exist at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory for
windows and Oak Ridge National Laboratory for roofing. The
National Institute of Standards and Technology provides a
user facility in the areas of thermal performance of walls;
plaything and water heating; appliance efficiency;
commissioning, operating, and maintenance procedures for
energy management and control systems; and durability of
construction materials. Seattle City Light operates a user
facility for regional users on lighting.
45. R. Sant and S. Carhart, Eight Great Energy Myths: The Least-
Cost Energy Strategy-1978-2000. Energy Productivity Report
No. 4, Mellon Institute, Pittsburgh, Pa., 1981.
46. R. Diamond, and P. du Pont, "Building Managers: The Actors
Behind the Scene," Home Energy, March/April 1988.
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Energy in 1985, Report DOE/EIA-0512~85), U.S. Department
of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Washington,
D.C., November, 1988.
48. L. Lamarre, "New Push for Energy Efficiency," EPRI J.,
15(3):4-17, 1990.
49. J. Ranney, (Oak Ridge National Laboratory), presentation to
Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on
Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies,
November 30, 1989.
50. D. L. Klass, "The U.S. Biofuels Industry,' International
Renewable Energy Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii, September
18, 1988.
51. D. Pimental et al., "Food Versus Biomass Fuel: Socioeconomic
and Environmental Impacts in the United States, Brazil,
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54. S. R. Bull (Solar Energy Research Institute), presentation to
Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on
Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies,
November 9, 1989.
SS. T. D. Hayes, (Gas Research Institute), presentation to
Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on
Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies,
November 9, 1989.
56. R. T. Fraley, "Genetic Engineering in Crop Agriculture,"
background paper for Office of Technology Assessment,
U. S. Congress, Washington, D.C., October 10, 1989.
57. D. L. Pulp (Ford Motor Co.), presentation to Industry Panel,
National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy
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58.
National Materials Advisory Board, National Research Council,
Bioprocessing for the Energy-Efficient Production of
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1986.
5 9 . Ethanol and pal icy Tradeof f s, _ _
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Department of Agriculture,
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122
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
ghg emissions
