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CONFRONTING
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Strategies for Energy Research and Development
Committee on Alternative Energy
Research and Development Strategies
Energy Engineering Board
Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1990
OCR for page R2
National Academy Press . 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.~J. · Washington, D. C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Cour~cil, whose menders are drawn from the councils of the Nationat Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
comni ttee responsible for the report were chosen for thei r conpetencies and Pi th regard for
appropri ate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved
by a Report Review Comnittee consisting of menders of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nor~rof it, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology arid to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the
charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise
the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
responsibility for advising the federal government. The #ational Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the
National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure
the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters
pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the
National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government
and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of Medical care, research, and education. Dr.
Samuet 0. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy~s purposes of furthering
knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. Dr. frank Press and Dr.
Robert White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DE-AC01-89ER89027
from the U. S. Department of Energy.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 90-628B2
I nternat i one l Standard Book Nurser 0-309- 04347-6
Copies of this report are available fran:
National Academy Press
2101 Const i tut i on Avenue, ~ .U.
flash i ngton, D.C. 20418
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S230
Copyright t990 by the National Acadeny of Sciences
No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or
in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted,
or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher,
except for the purpose of official use by the United States Goverr~nent.
Printed in the United States of America
First Printing, August 1990
Second Printing, September 1991
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NATIONAL RESEARCH CO UNC] L
2101 coNsTm~nobl A\tE~UE
OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN'
The Honorable James D. Watkins
Secretary
U.S. Department of Energy
1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20585
Dear Mr. Secretary:
WASHINCrON, D. C. 20~18
August 14, 1990
I am pleased to forward "Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and
Development, the report of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and
Development Strategies. The report was prepared at the request of Congress and with
support from the Department of Energy.
The report was written by a distinguished group of professionals with diverse backgrounds
and experience. It provides perspectives on choices end priorities for energy research and
development in the United States, outlining ways by which the nation might choose to
reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, if it wishes to respond to the possibility of climatic
change.
In responding to the request from Congress, the committee was faced with the difficult
task of conceiving strategies for the United States while recognizing that actions taken
unilaterally by the United States, in the absence of a global strategy involving industrial
and industrializing countries, would have limited impact on the global emission of
greenhouse gases and could weaken our competitive position in world markets. The
committee also had to contend with the reality that the United States and many other
nations must rely for a long time on fossil fuels' especially coal. Achieving timely and
cost-~ffective transitions to low or non-carbon teased fuels and energy resources will be
Very difficult.
Given the magnitude of changes affecting energy production and use that might be
requ~reC'' And commit cons~aerea ~ time noreon that extended to the year 2050. It did
this to make distinctions between what might reasonably be accomplished over the longer
term and options that could benefit the nation over the next few decades, as well as
reflecting heightened concerns about increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. And,
given other national priorities and the financial stressin the federal budget, the committee
felt compelled to identify actions that were prudent and could be successfully Implemented
without requiring greater federal appropriations for energy research and development.
~ ~ . ~ ~ _ . . — . · . ~ . · · .
The committee also presents an alternative strategy which would require increased
investments in energy research and development. It is a strategy to which the nation could
commit itself should an increased understanding of the consequences of global warming
dictate' or which might be followed to meet other national goals such as energy security.
I believe this report offers insights that are important to the formulation of U.S. energy
R&D policy.
Yours sincerer
Frank Press
Chairman
-
T HE NAnON~ RESE - CH CO=CIL IS ~E PRINCIP~ OPE~C AC£NCY OF ~E NAnON~ AC^DE' OF SCrENCES AND ~E NATiON~ ACADE~ OF EN~EER~G
TO SE RYE GOVERNMENT AND OTHER ORG\NIZAnONS .
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COMMITTEE ON
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
DAVID L. MORRISON (Chairman), IIT Research Institute, Chicago,
Illinois
JAN BEYEA, National Audubon Society, New York, New York
CLARK W. BOLLARD, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois
WILLIAM M. BURNETT, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Illinois
GEORGE M. HIDY, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto,
California
HENRY D. JACOBY, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
EDWARD A. MASON, Amoco Corporation, Chicago, Illinois
JOHN L. MASON, Allied-S ignal Aerospace Company, Torrance,
California
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University,
New Haven, Connecticut
LESTER P. SILVERMAN, McKinsey & Company, Inc., Washington, D.C.
HUGH R. WYNNE-EDWARDS, Moli Energy Limited, Vancouver,
British Columbia, Canada
LIAISON WITH TEE ENERGY ENGINEERING BOARD
GLENN A. SCHURMANN, Chevron Corporation, San Francisco,
California
DAVID C. WHITE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
TECHNICAL ADVISERS TO TEE COMMITTEE
DEBORAH L. BLEVISS, International Institute for Energy
Conservation, Washington, D.C.
DAN STEINMEYER, Monsanto Chemical Company, St. Louis, Missouri
CARL J. WEINBERG, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Ramon,
California
Lester P. Silverman and Hugh R. Wynne-Edwards served on the
committee from June through August 1989 and June through October
1989, respectively, but could not participate in meetings
thereafter.
v
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STAFF
Energy Engineering Board
MAHADEVAN (DEV) MANI, Study Director
KAMAL J. ARAJ, Senior Program Officer
ROBERT COHEN, Senior Program Officer
GEORGE LALOS, Consultant
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer
ARCHIE L. WOOD, Director
PHILOMINA MAMMEN, Administrative Assistant
MARY C. PECHACEK, Administrative Assistant
Building Research Board
PETER H. SMEALLIE, Senior Program Officer
Manufacturing Studies Board
THEODORE W. JONES, Research Associate
V1
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EXPERT PANE LO
Five expert panels were constituted by the National Research
Council to support the Committee on Alternative Energy Research
and Development Strategies. Panel members were selected to
complement the committee and Drovide expertise from different
sectors of the economy.
, , _ _
In the context of the committee's charge
directed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in energy
production and use in the United States, the panels addressed
opportunities in the electric power, transportation, buildings,
and industry market sectors and strategies for energy R&D and
technology adoption. The panels' work was conducted between
October 1989 and Januarv 1990. during which time each Panel met
at least three times.
_ , _
At these meetings the panels invited
presentations from and held discussions with representatives of
various government agencies (e.g., Departments of Energy and
Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency), from the Oak
Ridge, Lawrence Berkeley, Argonne, and Pacific Northwest national
laboratories; from the Solar Energy Research Institute; and from
industry and academic institutions. The panels subsequently
prepared and provided written reports of their respective
f indings and reco~n~nendations as inputs to the committee. These,
alone with other inputs, were used by the committee in its
_
.
.
-
~ .
del iterations and in preparing the f inal report of the study .
However, concurrence of the panels was not sought in the final
report. Thus, responsibility for the final report rests solely
with the committee. Listings of panels and their membership
follow.
ELECTRICITY PANEL
CORVETTE!: ON
ALTERNATIVE: ENERGY R1BSEA%CE AND DI;va;I~OPME:= 8TRATEGIE8
DAVID C. WHITE (Chairman), Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
THOMAS V. CHEMA, Arter & Hadden, Clever and, Ohio
. ,
,
OSMAN K. MAWARDI , Collaborative Planners , Inc., Cleveland
Heights, Ohio
MOHAN MUNASINGHE, The World Bank/IFC, Washington, D. C.
GUY M. NICHOLS, New England Electric Systems, Westborough,
Massachusetts
HEINZ G. PFEIFFER, Consultant, Allentown, Pennsylvania
CARL J . WEINBERG, Pacif ic Gas and Electric Company, San Ramon,
California
ROBERT H. WILLIAMS, Center for Energy and Environmental Stud' es,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Staf f: Kamal J . Araj, Energy Engineering Board
· .
V11
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TRANSPORTATION PANEL
COMMITTEE ON
ALTERNATIvE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
JOHN L. MASON (Chairman), Allied-Signal Aerospace Company,
Torrance, California
HENRY D. JACOBY (Vice-Chairman), Massachusetts Into tute of
Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
CHARLES A. AMANN, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren,
Michigan
DEBORAH L. BLEVISS, International Institute for Energy
Conservation, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT J. CASEY, High-Speed Rail Association,
Pennsylvania
Pittsburgh,
K. G. DEEP, Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington,
Virginia
JACK L. KERREBROCK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
RICHARD L. KLIMISCH, General Motors Technical Center, Warren,
Michigan
DAVID L. KULP, Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan
STEPHEN A. PEZDA,* Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan
Staff: George Lalos, Consultant, Energy Engineering Board
*Stephen A. Pezda attended one meeting of the Transportation
Panel as an alternate for David L. Kulp.
RES IDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL PANEL
COMMITTEE ON
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESEARCE AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
WILLIAM M. BURNETT (Chairman), Gas Research Institute,
Chicago, I 11 inois
JAN BEYEA (Vice-Chairman), National Audubon Society, New York,
New York
JACK B . CHADDOCK, Duke University, Durham, North Carol ina
DAVID J. MACFADYEN, NAHB National Research Center,
Upper Marlboro, Maryland
DAVID B. GOLDSTEIN, Natural Resources Defense Council,
San Francisco, California
MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Garrett Ceramic Component Division,
Torrance, California
RICHARD G. STEIN * Stein Partnership, New York, New York
RICHARD N. WRIGHT, National Institute of Standards and
Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland
Staff: Peter H. Smeallie, Building Research Board
*Deceased April 18, 1990.
. . .
vail
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INDUSTRY PANEL
COMMITTEE ON
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
DAVID L. MORRISON (Chairman)
Illinois
JACOB M. GEIST, GeistTec, Allentown, Pennsylvania
EMERY J. HORNYAK, Owens-Illinois, Inc., Toledo, Ohio
NOEL JARRETT, Noel Jarrett Associates, Lower Burell, Pennsylvania
PETER J. KOROS, LTV Steel Company, Independence, Ohio
GEORGE LAUER, Atlantic Richfield Company, Los Angeles, California
MARC H. ROSS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
DAN STEINMEYER, Monsanto Chemical Company, St . Louis, Missouri
Staff: Robert Cohen, Energy Engineering Board
Theodore W. Jones, Manufacturing Studies Board
IIT Research Institute, Chicago,
R&D STRATEGIES PANEL
COMMITTEE ON
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
CLARK W. BOLLARD (Chairman), University of Illinois, Urbana,
Illinois
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS (Vice-Chairman), Yale University, New Haven,
Connecticut
GEORGE M. HIDY, Electric Power Research Institute,
California
Palo Alto,
RICHARD C. LEVIN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
EGILS MILBERGS, Institute for Illinois, Washington, D.C.
DAVID C. MOWERY, University of California, Berkeley, California
JACK T. SANDERSON, Combustion Engineering, Inc., Stanford,
Connecticut
AARON WILDAVSKY, University of California, Berkeley, California
Staff: James J. Zucchetto, Energy Engineering Board
LK
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ENERGY ENGINEERING BOARD
JOHN A. TILLINGHAST (Chairman), Tiltec Corporation,
New Hampshire
DONALD B. ANTHONY, BP Exploration, Houston, Texas
RALPH C. CAVANAGH, Natural Resources Defense Council,
San Francisco, California
CHARLES F. GAY, Arco Solar, Camarillo, California
WILLIAM R. GOULD, Southern California Edison Company, Rosemead,
Cal if ornia
JOSEPH M. HENDRIE, BrooRhaven National Laboratory, Upton,
New York
WILLIAM W. HOGAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ARTHUR E. HUMPHREY, Center for Molecular Bioscience and
Biotechnology, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania
BAINE P. KERR, Pennzoil Company, Houston, Texas
HENRY R. LINDEN, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Illinois
THOMAS H. PIGFORD, University of California, Berkeley, California
MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Garrett Ceramic Component Division, Torrance,
California
GLENN A. SCHURMAN, Chevron Corporation, San Francisco, California
WESTON M. STACEY, JR., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta,
Georgia
LEON STOCK, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois
GEORGE S. TOLLEY, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
DAVID C. WHITE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
RICHARD WILSON, Harvard University, Cambridge,
Portsmouth,
Massachusetts.
BERTRAM WOLFE, General Electric Company, San Jose, California
Liaison with the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems
FLOYD L. CULLER, JR., Electric Power Research Institute,
Palo Alto, California
KENT F. HANSEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
l
membership Active during the period of study.
ENERGY ENGINEERING BOARD STAFF
ARCHIE L. WOOD,
MAHADEVAN (DEV)
JUDITH A. AMRI,
Director
MANI, Associate Director
Administrative Associate
KAMAL J. ARAB' Senior Program Officer
ROBERT COHEN, Senior Program Of f icer
GEORGE LALOS, Consultant
THERESA FISHER, Administrative Assistant
PHILOMINA MAMMEN, Administrative Assistant
MARY C. PECHACECK, Administrative Assistant
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer
NORMAN HAILER, Consultant
x
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ACKNOwLEDGMENT8
The work reflected in this report was performed by the Committee
on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies between
June 1989 and February 3990. The committee wishes to acknowledge
with gratitude the assistance of the following individuals who
provided information on various topics of interest during the
course of the study:
The Honorable Timothy E. Wirth, United States Senate (Colorado);
David Harwood, Staff, U.S. Senate; John Ahearne, Society of Sigma
Xi; Marvin Garfinkel and Walter L. Robb, General Electric
Company; D. Warner North, Decision Focus, Inc.; Bob Jones, ADM
Milling Company; J. Laurence Kulp, Consultant; William Pepper,
ICE, Inc.; Geoffrey J. Sturgess, Pratt & Whitney, United
Technologies Corporation; John Doyle, Pacific Gas and Electric
Company; John F. Elliott and Nicholas J. Grant, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology; David Pimentel, Cornell University;
Ronald B. Edelstein and Thomas Hayes, Gas Research Institute;
Jeremy Metz, American Paper Institute; Eric Vaughn, Renewable
Fuels Association; Nicholas Fedoruk, Environmental Action
Foundation; John O. Berga and Timothy S. Yau, Electric Power
Research Institute; David Jhirad, U.S. Agency for International
Development; Frederick M. Bernthal, U.S. Department of State;
Patrick R. Booher, Richard A. Bradley, Paul J. Brown, Thomas A.
Calhourn, Albert A. Chesnes, John F. Clarke, Melvin H. Chiogioji,
Mary Corrigan, David H. Crandall, Bruce Cranford, J. Michael
Davis, George Doumani, John N. Eustis, Kenneth M. Friedman,
Thomas J. Gross, Robert Kane, David J. McGoff, David O. Moses,
David B. Nelson, Robert Rabson, David M. Richman, Howard Rohm,
Peter H. Salmon-Cox, Robert L. San Martin, Alan J. Streb, Linda
G. Stuntz, Denise F. Swink, Donald K. Walter, and Edward R.
Williams, U.S. Department of Energy; Earl Gavett and Norton D.
Strommen, U.S. Department of Agriculture; Robert Flaak, Richard
Morgenstern, Barry Solomon, and Dennis Tirpak, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency; Linda Berry, Roger Carlemith, Robin Cantor,
Phil Fairchild, William Fulkerson, Ed Hillsman, Eric Hirst,
Michael Kuliasha, Jack Ranney, John Reed, David Reister, Marty
Schweizter, Robert Van Hook, and Robert Wendt, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory; Brandt Anderson, Sam Berman, William Carroll, Joan
Daisey, Rick Diamond, Don Grether, Ashok Gadgil, Arlon Hunt,
Joseph Klems, Jon Koomey, Mark Levine, Arthur Rosenfeld, Michael
Rubin, Steve Selkowitz, Michael Wahlig, and Fred W~nkelmann,
Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory; Don M. Rote, Argonne National
Laboratory; W. Bradford Ashton and Jae A. Edmonds, Battelle
Pacific Northwest Laboratory; Stanley Bull, Solar Energy Research
Institute; John Facey, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration; David L. Bodde, Robert A. Coppock, Andrew C.
Lemer, and Lawrence E. McCray, National Research Council.
X1
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CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e e e
1 STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS: KEY
FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS e · e e e e e e e · · ~ e e · ~ ~ ~ ~ e e e e e e e
End-Use Sector Analysis, 3
Current Status of Alternative Energy R&D, 5
Findings, ~
Recommendations, 6
2 BACKGROUND e ~ e e ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~ e e e e e e ~ ~ ~ ~ e
Genesis of the Study, 15
Problem Description, 15
The Global Context, 21
Notes and References, 23
A FRAMEWORK FOR PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTING ENERGY RESEARCH
AND DEVELOPMENT.............
R&D at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2S
Energy R&D Outside the DOE, 27
Lessons from R&D Programs and Instruments, 28
Technology Development and Applications in Other Nations, 31
Technology-Adoption Process, 31
Attaining Low-GHG Emissions, 32
Role of R&D, 32
Energy Policy and GHGs, 33
Role of the Private Sector, 34
Management of Federal Energy R&D, 36
Alternative Budget Strategies, 37
Leveraging Federal Investments Globally, 38
Strategy Options, 39
Notes and References, 43
4 POTENTIAL FOR REDUCING EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES.
Electric Power, 46
Transportation, 67
Residential and Commercial Buildings, 80
Industry, 99
Addendum: Biomass for Energy and Feedstocks, 114
Notes and References, 117
Bibliography, 123
. . .
x~
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List of Tables
Key Atmospheric Trace Gases Whose Concentrations
are Increasing
Table 3-1 Budget Authority for DOE Civilian Energy R&D
Programs
Table 3-2 Government and Private Sector Roles in Energy R&D
and Technology Innovation
Table 4-1 1988 U.S. Electric Power Generation
Table 4-2 DOE Advanced Reactor and Magnetic Fusion
Appropriations
Table 4-3 Criteria and Issues for the International
Study on Advanced Reactors
Table 4-4 Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions by Mode
in the U. S. Transportation Sector, 1987
Table 4-5 Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions
from Automobiles and Light Trucks:
Illustrative Scenarios for the Year 2000
Table 4-6 Carbon Emissions from the Transportation Sector:
Four Illustrative Scenarios for the Year 2050
Table 4-7 Current Energy Use in the Buildings Sector
Table 4-8 Current C02 Emissions by the Buildings Sector
Table 4-9 Potential Contribution of Building
Technologies/Practices to Reduction of GHG
Emissions
Table 4-10 Space Heating Equipment Seasonal Performance Factor
Table 4-11 Space Cooling Equipment Seasonal Performance Factor
Table 4-12 Potential CO2 Reductions in the Buildings Sector
Table 4-13 Fossil Fuel Use and Carbon Emissions by U.S.
Manufacturing Industries, 1985
Table 4-14 Estimates of Energy Efficiency Potential by
Industry, 1990-2020
XIV
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List of Figures
Figure 2-1 Sources of GHGs. Energy production and use
constitute the largest human source of greenhouse
gases, but other activities are also significant.
Figure 2
Historical variation in atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration.
Figure 2-3 GHGs responsible for increases in the greenhouse
effect worldwide.
Figure 4-1 Reduction strategies for Gags emitted in the
electric power sector.
xv
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