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ADAPTABILITY OF THE ENGINEERING WORK FORCE: INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Alan Eck Bureau of Labor Statistics Introduction Through its Occupational Outlook Program, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides current occupational ~nfom~ation to a wide variety of users. This program, conducted by the BLS' Office of Employment Projections, has seen its primary audience change from the unemployed of the 1930s depression, to veterans returning to the civilian job market after World War II, and since the late 1940s, to high school students seeking assistance in choosing a career. Throughout, however, its focus has remained the same: to provide current information about job duties and working conditions, current employment, training requirements, earnings, and the outlook for jobs in about 200 occupations. The program's major publication, the Occupational Outlook Handbook, appears biannually and is widely used in high school vocational education progranns.~ To best serve its audience, the Handbook utilizes a nontechnical, narrative format In presenting information. However, the information is based on careful analysis of BLS and other data. Indeed, the program resides in the BLS to facilitate access to extensive survey data available In other program offices. To provide students, counselors, researchers, training program planners and others interested in the specific data used to develop information in the Handbook, a statistical supplement, Occupational Projections and Training Needs, also is produces! biannually.2 1Occupation41 Outlook Handbook, 19~-89 Edition (Bulletin 2300), Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1988, is the most recent edition. The next is scheduled for publication in April 1990. Occupational Projections and Training Data, 1988 Edition (Bulletin 2301), Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1988. 83
Unlike the Center for Education Statistics, which concentrates on analyzing information about teachers, or the National Science Foundation (NSF) on scientists and engineers, occupational analysis within the Office of Employment Projections embraces all occupations. Analysis of engineering employment is part, but certainly not all, of this effort. Thus, to support the Occupational Outlook Program.and for other purposes, the Bureau develops information about all occupations. A detailed system for projecting the labor force, gross national product, productivity, and other economic variables is the cornerstone for comprehensive occupational employment projections.3 Projections are valuable because Hey permit calculation of expected and absolute rates of change for about 600 occupations. The former provides a partial measure of job opportunities; the latter is useful for identifying the rapidly growing occupations that are generally considered to provide better employment prospects. While occupational employment projections are valuables dley are only a portion of desirable occupational data and the BES supports efforts to develop additional information. For example, since growth is an incomplete measure of job opportunities and since job opportunities resulting from the need to replace workers who leave an occupation gready exceed those due to growth, The potential for developing replacement needs data was explored. Also, the desirability of providing information identifying The characteristics of entrants and the existence of career ladders to students and training program planners was recognized, and research to develop appropriate information was undertaken. These research efforts utilized existing BES data and provide insights into He adaptability of engineers. In this paper, the two major BES occupational data sources are discussed, and a brief overview of the information about engineers is presented. Be forewarned, however, that this paper does not provide an intensive analysis of He labor market for engineers. Data Sources Current and projected employment data appearing In He Occupations Outiook Handbook and Occupational Projections and Training Needs Data utilize inf~nat~on from 3A series of articles in the September 1987 Monthly Labor Review present the results. The articles and a description of the projection methodology appear in Projections 2000, Bulletin 2302 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 1988~. 84
the BES national indusmy/occupanon Manx. Basic data for that matrix come from Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) surveys conducted periodically by State employment security agencies under a BLS-State cooperative program.4 The OES survey obtains information from establishments rawer than individuals. Forms containing occupational descriptions are provided employers, who then classify their employees by occupation. Appendix 1 presents OES survey definitions for engineers. None of these definitions require an individual to possess a college degree in order to be classified as an engineer. Engineering teachers are not included among engineers; they are included in the data for college and university facula. Also, sales engineers are included with sales workers rather than engineers. The OES survey obtains only wage and salary employment data and provides no demographic information about employees. Because data are obtained from employers, the results count jobs, not individuals. For example, an individual with two jobs would be included in the data twice, once with each employer. To complete the national industry/occupation matrix, OES survey data are combined with decennial Census of Population and Current Population Survey (CPS) occupational employment information for the agriculture and private household industries as well as for self-employed and unpaid family workers. Office of Personnel Management data provide occupational employment infonna~aon for the federal government Although BLS uses OES survey employment estimates in its Occupational Outlook Program, the survey's usefulness in examining the adaptability of engineers is limited since no demographic data are available. However, other BLS data-from the CPS-do provide infonnation about the adaptability of engineers.5 The CPS is a monthly survey of approximately 55,000 households conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the BLS. Interviewers conduct the survey and ask questions to determine if individuals are employed, unemployed, or out of the labor force. Information about industry and occupation of employment-as weD as about age, sex, education, and many other charactenstics also is obtained. After interviewers return the forms, Bureau of the Census clerical personnel code responses to the survey questions "What kind of work was doing? (For example: electrical engineer, stock clerk, typist, farmer.)" and "What were 's most important activities or duties? (For example: types, keeps account 4Additional infonnation about the Occupation Employment Statistics survey appears in the publication BLS [landbook of Methods, Bulletin 2285, (Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1988), Chapter 3. SA description of the CPS appears each month in "Explanatory Notes," Household Data section, of the BLS publication, Employment and Earnings. 85
books, files, sells cars, operates printing press, finishes concrete.)" into 1 of about 500 occupations established for use with the decennial Census of Population occupational classification system. Since the classification system changes after each decennial Census, occupational data may be consistent only for about 10 years. For example, from January 1972 through December 1982, the CPS used the 1970 Census of Population occupational classification system; since January 1983, the 1980 system has been used. Fortunately, changes in the system do not significantly impact the data about engineers. The job titles included in each of the engineering occupations from the 1980 Census of Population Classified Index of Industries and Occupations are presented in Appendix B.6 Engineering teachers are included in the data for college and university faculty, and sales engineers are now included with sales workers. Unlike the OES surrey, In the CPS responses of individuals rawer than employers determine occupation. There are no education standards; individuals with less than four years of college may report and be classified as an engineer. In some cases this may result in occupational upgrading (technicians may describe themselves as engineers). On the other hand, individuals without degrees may correctly describe themselves as engineers. An additional result of Me sunrey design is that the employment data count individuals, not jobs. For this reason and others, occupational employment data from the CPS differ from current and projected employment data appearing in the national industIy/occupation matrix. Table 1 compares 1986 CPS, OES, and (NSF) survey employment data for engineers. While a discussion of how NSF data are derived and why they differ from the OES and the CPS is beyond the scope of this paper, these data provide a comparison with another major data source. Suffice to say that the NSF estimate of 2.6 million engineers, which includes college faculty, is much higher than Me 1.7 million CPS estimate and Me I.4 million OES survey-based estimate. Information from the Current Population Survey Many types of ~nfonnanon provide insights into Me adaptability of engineers and Me labor market environment Cat requires adaptation; Me following reviews Nose available _ . 61980 Census of Population: Classif ed Index of Industries and Occupations (PHCSO-R4), Washington, D.C.: Bureau of the Census, November 1982. 86
Table I. Comparison of 1986 Employment for Engineers (in thousands) Current Population Survey Title Current National National Population Industry- Science Surveys Occupation Foun~nonC Matrixb Engineers1,7491,3712,561 Aerospace engineers9353112 MetaBurg~cal&matenalseng~neers261859 Mining engineers9519 Petroleum engineers322238 Chemical engineers5953163 Nuclear engineers101425 Civil engineers233199366 Agricultural engineers3 Electrical & electronic engineers550401581 Indusmalengineers203117151 Mechanical engineers287233514 Manne engineers & naval architects13 Engineers, n.e.c.228257532 a Based on tabulation of Current Population Survey micro data for all months in 1986. b George T. Silvestn and John M. Lukasiewicz, "A look at occupational employment trends to the year 2000," Monthly Labor Review, September 1987, Table 3, pg. 49-54. c National Science Foundation, "Profiles - Mechanical Engineering: Human Resources and Funding" (NSF 87-310), (Washington, D.C.) Table 1. - Data not available. from the CPS. First, selected demographic characteristics are examined to obtain a sense of how engineers differ from other professional workers and from all employees. Then, employment trend data assess changes in demand for their services and changes in the characteristics of workers. Finally, data about movements describe the sources of entrants and the destination of leavers. Because significant errors can exist in data for small occupations, inforrnanon is presented only for engineering occupations wig 100,000 or more employees in 1988. Selected Characteristics When compared to all workers (Table 2), engineers are older Can all workers (median years of age: 38.8 versus 36.2), have more education (median grade of school 87
Table 2. Selected Charactensucs of Workers, 1988 Occupation 1988 Median MeAia'n Employment Age Percent of 1988 School Employees Females White (thousands) Grade on Part Completed TD Schedules Total employed, age 16 & over115,003 36.2 12.9 17.2 45.0 86.8 Professional specialty occupations15,010 38.5 17.2 15.1 49.8 89.3 Engineers1,815 38.8 16.8 2.2 7.4 89.6 Aerospace117 41.7 17.1 1.9 6.8 87.4 Civil224 39.2 16.9 2.2 6.3 89.4 Electrical & electronic572 37.9 16.9 1.7 8.1 88. ~ industrial220 39.4 16.3 1.5 13.0 90.5 Mechanical300 39.5 16.8 1.7 3.7 91.3 Engineers,n.e.c.228 39.7 16.8 3.5 6.8 90.5 Registered Nurses1,561 37.4 16.0 26.1 94.7 86. ~ Teachers, elementary1,423 40.1 17.4 10.7 84.6 88.0 Teachers, secondary1,193 41.1 17.7 9.5 51.2 90.4 Engineering & related technologists & technicians934 34.3 13.9 5.6 18.8 89.5 Electrical & ele~n~c technicians326 34.1 13.8 3.7 14.5 87.4 . · ~ ~ngmeermg technicians, n.e.c.224 34.4 14.0 9.4 31.1 87.9 Drafting occupations289 34.0 14.1 4.9 15.8 90.9 SOURCE: 1988 annual average Current Population Survey data completed: 16.8 versus 12.9), have much smaller proportions of part-time wooers (2.2 versus 17.2 percent) and female workers (7.4 versus 45.0 percent), and have a higher proportion of white workers (89.6 versus 86.8 percent). Except for smaller proportions of part-time and female workers, however, die characteristics of engineers and all professional workers are very similar. Table 3 complements Me information on educational ana~nment provided In Table 2 by distributing engineers by highest grade completed. Seventy-two percent completed 16 or more years of school and probably have a college degree. 88
CPS data also provide a glimpse at the relative stability of engineers. Occupational tenure data measure the length of time individuals have done dhe kind of work they are now doing while working for either their current or any previous employer. The median years of tenure in dleir current occupation was 1 n s for fin Odin cli obtl`, hi of teak ·1~ 9 6 - --or ~ ^~^--~ ~9 =~ ll~l ~1~1 U1~ years for aD professional workers but significantly higher than the 6.6 years for an employed workers (Table 4). Anodher measure that engineers tend to stay in the occupation is provided by The proportion with 20 or more years tenure in the occupation. At 28.2 percent, The proportion is much higher than the 20.0 percent for an professional workers and 14.6 percent for all workers. Employment Trends Demand for engineers has grown significantly over The last 25 years. Employment increased from 985 Thousand in 1963 to 1.805 minion in 1988, an 83 percent increase (Table 5). Only during 1968- 1973, when curtailments in the space program and military involvement in Vietnam sharply reduced the need for engineers, was there any significant deviation in the upward trend. Somewhat surprisingly, the 73 percent increase is about dhe same as the 66 percent increase in total employment. In the last decade, however, employment of aerospace, and electronic engineers has brown at least twice We rate as tom employment (Table 6). Table 3. Engineers, by Highest Grade of School Completed, 1988 Occupation Percepl~ 1986 Erpploym:Ilt Total 16 years 13-15 12 years ~ more years or less Engineers 100.0 72.3 16.4 1 1.3 Aerospace 100.0 8 1.8 12.7 5.5 Civil 100.0 75.0 13.5 1 1.5 Electrical & elec~n~c 100.0 73.5 16.6 9.9 Industrial 100.0 56.5 22.9 20.6 Mechanical 100.0 71.0 17.6 1 1.4 Engineers, n.e.c. 100.0 72.1 19.1 8.8 SOURCE: 1988 annual average Current Population Survey data 89
Table 4. Years of Tenure in Occupation, 1988 Occupation Years of Tenure in Current Occupation Total Median Percent of Emplovees Employed Total 3 or 4-9 10-19 20 or (thousands) less _ more . Total employed age 16&over109,090 6.6 100.0 36.5 26.1 22.9 14.6 Professional specialty occupations14,448 9.6 100.0 23.7 27.5 28.9 20.0 Engineers1,784 10.5 100.0 19.9 27.6 24.4 28.2 Aerospace109 9.6 100.0 22.8 28.3 10.3 38.7 Civil237 13.0 100.0 17.8 19.7 28.9 33.5 Electrical & electronic520 10.4 100.0 18.2 29.6 25.3 26.9 Industrial213 8.9 100.0 24.5 29.0 24.6 21.9 Mechanical288 11.4 100.0 21.9 23.7 24.2 30.2 Engineers, n.e.c.269 10.0 100.0 19.8 30.0 25.2 24.6 Registered Nurses1,538 9.3 100.0 20.7 31.5 28.0 19.8 Teachers, elementary1,412 12.4 100.0 14.3 24.3 41.3 20.! Teachers, secondary1,182 12.5 100.0 14.9 22.3 39.4 23.4 Engineering & related technologists & technicians 847 7.6 100.0 29.7 29.4 24.1 ~ 6.8 Electrical & electronic 294 6.9 100.0 33.7 26.6 25.7 14.0 , · - . ~ngmeermg technicians, n.e.c. 205 7.7 100.0 28.2 30.5 29.5 Il.7 Draf~angoccupa~aons 281 8.0 100.0 28.8 29.9 19.1 22.2 SOURCE: January 1987 Current Population Survey. Table 5. Employment, Selected Years fin thousands) Occupation 1963 19681973197819831988 Total employed, age 16 & over 69,084 75,92084,40994,375100,832114,968 Engineers 985 1,1931,0941,2651,5721,805 Aerospace 63 76595980115 Civil 158 167156160211218 Electrical & electronic 255 290272329450573 Industrial 113 149167206210221 Mechanical 201 227178216259297 Engineers, n.e.c. 103 133146173192230 SOURCE: Annual average Current Population Survey data 90
Table 6. Percent Change in Employment, Selected Years Occupation Percent Change 1963-68 1968-73 1973-78 1978-83 1983-88 Total employed, age 16 & over 9.911.211.8 6.8 14.0 Engineers 21.1-8.315.6 24.3 14.8 Aerospace 20.6-22.4.0 35.6 43.8 Civil 5.1-6.62.6 31.9 3.3 Electrical & electronic 13.7-6.221.0 36.8 27.3 Industrial 12.012.123.4 I.9 5.2 Mechanical 12.9-21.621.4 20.0 14.7 Engineers, n.e.c. 29.19.818.5 11.0 19.8 SOURCE: Annual average Current Population Survey data As the data presented earlier indicated, engineers are predominantly white males. An increase in the proportions of non-whites and females over time indicates engineers are expanding their traditional source of entrants. Such appears to be the case. Since 1963 the proportion of non-whites has increased from 2.1 to 10.2 percent, and the proportion of females from 0.7 to 7.3 percent (Table 71. Gross Movements Employment opportunities result Tom the creation of new jobs and the need to replace workers. "Gross separation" data identify those workers who leave an occupation and who must be replaced if employment levels are to be maintained Information about gross separations not only identifies employment opportunities, but also indicates the relative attachment of individuals to an occupation. Using the CPS as a data base, a methodology has been developed to estimate the proportion of workers leaving an occupation.7 Briefly, at 1-year intervals, 50 percent of the households in the CPS sample are the same. Individuals who had not changed residence were identified in each survey by matching data on computer tapes about the household address and information about the age, sex, and race of the individuals. A matched sample for each of 12 months was created and data describing changes in labor 7The methodology is described in detail in Occupational Projections and Training Data, 198~2 Edition (Bulletin 2202), Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December l9X2, Appendix B. 91
Table 7. Non-whites and Females, Selected Years, in percent Occ ation 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 up Total employed, age 16 & over Non-whites Females Engineers Non-whites Females ~. SOURCE: Annual average Current Population Survey data 10.3 10.8 10.8 1 1.2 1 1.8 13.2 25.6 36.6 38.4 41.2 43.7 45.0 2.1 3.3 3.7 5.5 8.1 10.2 .7 .7 1.3 2.8 5.8 7.3 force status tabulated. Matched data about changes in the labor force then were merged with data on occupational changes from a special study conducted as part of the January 1987 CPS. The results, termed "merged data," provide a composite description of movements into, out of, and between occupations over a 1-year period: they measure gross movements. Table 8 presents 198~87 gross separation data for engineers. Overall, 8.4 percent left the demled occupation: about half, 4.3 percent, transferred to another occupation while the remainder became unemployed (1.5 percent) or left the labor force (2.6 percent).S Merged data show relatively few engineers leave from one year to the next. Their rate was slightly lower than the 10.8 percent for all professional workers and much lower than the 18.0 percent for all employed persons. The merged data also identify differences In separation rates among engineering specialities. Separation rates hovering around 6 percent are observed for the most technical groups aerospace, civil, electrical and electronic, and mechanical- about one-half Me rate for industrial and "engineers n.e.c." Over lame, the levels of the rates and differences between occupations have remained relatively constant (Table 9~. Industrial engineers consistently exhibit the highest separation rate. Merged CPS data also can be tabulated to provide information about entrants. This group includes individuals who entered the occupation to fill newly created jobs as well as to replace engineers who left. The results reveal 5.8 percent of engineers were not in the occupation a year earlier. The largest group consists of individuals ~ansfemDg from other Transfers measure changes between detailed occupations and include employment in a different engineering specify. 92
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Table 9. Separation Rates for Engineers, Selected Years (in percent) Occupation Segarai~on Rates Total Transfers ~~ ~ ~ ~~ to Other Occupations Unemployed Not in Me Labor Force E. ng~neers 1977-78 8.1 5.1 0.7 2.3 1980-81 7.4 4.4 1.0 2.0 1983-84 8.6 4.4 1.1 3.0 1986-87 8.4 4.3 1.5 2.6 Aerospace engineers 1977-78 8.0 7.2 .4 .4 1980-81 3.4 3.0 .4 .0 1983-84 4.4 ·0 0 4 4 1986-87 4.6 2.5 .~7 1.4 Civil engineers 1977-78 4.8 1.4 .8 2.6 1980-81 6.9 4.3 .6 2.0 1983-84 4.9 2.7 .9 1.3 198~87 6.6 1.8 2.1 2.7 Electrical & electronic engineers 1977-78 7.1 4.4 .6 2.1 1980~81 4.0 1.6 .7 1.7 1983-84 5.1 2.6 .5 2.0 1986-87 7.2 3.1 1.6 2.5 dus~rial engineers 1977-78 11.4 7.6 1.1 2.7 1980-81 14.7 9.5 2.2 3.0 1983-84 15.3 9.4 1.7 4.2 1986-87 11.4 7.8 .9 2.7 Mechanical engineer 1977-78 4.6 1.7 .6 2.3 198~81 6.3 4.4 .5 1.4 1983-84 8.5 1.8 1.9 4.8 1986-87 4.6 1.9 1.2 1.5 . - ~ngmeers, n.e.c. 1977-78 7.6 4.4 .7 2.5 1980-81 4.8 1.2 1.0 2.6 1983-84 11.3 6.6 1.3 3.4 1986-87 14.2 8.4 2.1 3.7 SOURCE: Merged Current Population Survey data. 94
occupations (3.6 percent). Of those not working, the largest group was out of the labor force and attending school (0.8 percent). Unfortunately, merged data on entrants suffer from the limitation that individuals who change residences between surveys are excluded. This limitation may be especially significant in occupations such as engineering where new college graduates comprise a large portion of entrants. Merged data for such occupations understate entrants because many individuals move after completing school and thus are not counted in the second survey even though they are likely to be working as an engineer. While the merged data indicate a lower percentage entering than leaving (8.4 versus 5.8 percent), much of the difference is attributable to the observed decline in engineering employment; the difference is not solely the result of errors in the data. Another limitation of the data is the inability to identify entrants who recently completed school. Because individuals are identified by labor force status, entrants who are students and who are working cannot be distinguished from qualified engineers: new graduates may be included in data for persons transferring into engineering. While based on a sample about one-tenth We size of the merged data, there is another source of CPS data about entrants. A special supplement to the January 1987 CPS asked employed engineers and others if they were employed in January 1986 and, if so, in what occupation. These data estimate that 1 1 1,000 individuals-6.2 percent of all engineers have entered the occupation since January 1986. The larger group-3.4 percent-transferred from another occupation while the remaining 2.8 percent had not been working the previous year. These results are similar to those obtained from the merged data (Table 101. Data from the January 1987 survey also provide information about engineers who changed employers, but not occupation. These data indicate that 108,000 engineers-6 percent of the total-had worked for their current employer 12 months or less and had been in the same occupation a year earlier (Table 1 1 ). The proportion for engineers was about the same as that for all professional workers (7.0 percent) and all employees (6.2 percent). Transfer Patterns Infonnation about occupations into which, and from which, engineers transfer is useful because it has the potential to identify career ladders and sources of supply. Though based on a small sample, some infonna~aon is available from the January 1987 CPS. 95
Occupation Total Table 10. Comparison of Data on Entrants (percent of tote] employment) Movements into Occupations Transfers Not from Other Working Qccucanons . Total employed, age 16 & over January 1987 CPS 16.3 8.1 8.2 Merged CPS 19.0 8.3 9.6 Professional specialty occupations January 1987 CPS 9.2 4.3 4.9 Merged CPS 10.1 4.4 5.5 Engineers January 1987 CPs 6.2 3.4 2.8 Merged CPS 5.8 3.6 2.2 Aerospace engineers January 1987 CPS 2.0 .0 2.0 Merged CPS 2.9 .0 2.9 Civil engineers January 1987 CPS 4.7 .9 3.8 Merged CPS 2.8 1.0 1.8 Electrical & electronic engineers January 1987 CPS 5.8 3.1 2.7 Merged CPS 5.5 3.3 2.3 Indusmal engineers January 1987 CPS 5.9 4.2 1.7 Merged CPS 6.7 4.2 2.6 Mechanical engineer January 1987 CPS 8.4 5.1 3.3 Merged CPS 7.3 5.3 1.9 . _ . ngmeers, n.e.c. January 1987 CPS 8.8 5.3 3.6 Merged CPS 7.7 5.6 2. 1 SOURCE: 1988 annual average Current Population Sunrey data 96
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Table 12 shows Me occupations in January 1987 of individuals employed as engineers in January 1986 and identifies occupations into which individuals transferred. The largest group who transferred occupations slightly over one-quarter-moved into managerial occupations, probably because of promotions. At just under one-fifth, the next largest group moved to different engineering specialties but remained within engineering. These results are very similar to those observed in the 1970 Census over the 1965-1970 · ~ time period. Table 13 identifies occupations in which engineers in January 1987 were working a year earlier and identifies occupations from which individuals transferred. The largest groups came from precision production, craft, and repair occupations and other engineering specialities, but there is no clear pattern. However, remember the limitation on the data about individuals transferring from other occupations: students who are working can not be distinguished from qualified engineers. Net Change Data Gross movement data describe a complex labor n,nrket with large proportions of workers entering and leaving the labor force or moving between occupations. To measure the impact of these movements over time, CPS annual average data were used to identify net changes 1983-1988, by occupation and by age group. For example, the number of engineers age 20-24 in 1983 was compared with the number age 25-29 in 1988. In this case, the number increased and provided a measure of net entrants for that age group. When summed across all age groups registering increases, a measure of net entrants to engineering is obtained. If the change for an age group was negative, however, a measure of net leavers results that, when summed, identifies total net leavers from the occupation. Net change data provide no information about the magnitude of gross movements out of or into occupations, but they do conveniently summarize their impact. Transfers, labor force accessions and separations (including deaths), and migration all contribute to the net result that differs from gross measures but nonetheless is useful for characterizing the behavior of individuals entering and leaving occupations. Data for engineers show that 53 percent of net entrants to engineering 1983-88 were age 25-29 in 1988 (Table 14). Even though some individuals leave engineering at all ages, the number age 20-24 in 1983 who entered engineering far exceeded the numbers leaving and contributed to the concentration of net entrants within this age group. The result is to be expected since that age group probably includes most individuals who entered 98
Table 12. January 1987 Occupation of Engineers in January 1986 (in percent) Major Occupation Group Employed Engineer in January 1986 Employed in January 1987 Executive, administrative, & managerial occupations Professional specialty occupations Non-eng~neer professional Engineer Same specialty Different specialty Sales occupations Administrative support occupations, including clencal Service workers, except private household Precision Production, craft, & repair occupations Transportation & material moving occupations SOURCE: January 1987 Current Population Survey da a. 100.0 1.2 96.7 .3 96.4 95.6 .9 .5 7 . I .2 .3 .2 Table 13. January 1986 Occupation of Engineers in January 1987 (in percent) Occupation Employed in January ~987 Executive, administrative, & managenal occupations Professional specialty occupations Non-eng~neer professional . - ~ngmeer Same specialty Different specialty Technicians & related support occupations Sales occupations Administrative support occupations, including clerical Service workers, except private household Precision Production, craft, & repair occupations Machine operators, assemblers, & inspectors Hangers, equipment cleaners, helpers & laborers SOURCE: January 1987 Current Population Survey data. 99 Employed Engineer in Januars 1987 . 100.0 .4 97.9 .6 97.3 96.7 .6 .2 .1 · / .3 .2
Table 14. Net Change Data for Engineers, 1983-1988 Net Entrants Engineers All Workers Met Leavers Engineers All Workers . Total employed Number (thousands)35921,266 157 7,304 Percent Total100.0100.0 100.0 100.0 1988 Age group 16-201.242.8 - - 21-2425.921.3 - 25-2952.914.2 - - 30-346.79.0 35-393.16.6 - - 40-445.84.4 45-494.51.6 50-54-- 4.5 .5 55-59-- 14.0 9.8 60-64-- 36.9 31.8 65-69-- 33.8 34.7 70-74-- 7.0 12.2 75-99-- 3.8 11.0 SOURCE: 1983 and 1988 Current Population Survey annual average data. eng~neenng immediately after completing college. Net entrants to engineering display a much different pattern from that for all workers. Overall, 43 percent of net entrants were persons age 16-20 in 1988. Among this group, none were in the labor force in 1983 because none were age 16. Thus, in this age group, all are entrants to occupations. Unlike that for net entrants, the pattern for net leavers from engineering is quite similar to that for all workers. Net leavers are greatest in the age group 60-64 followed closely by the 65-69 group. Since most leavers at these ages probably are retiring, the data indicate relatively few engineers retire before age 60. Are patterns based on 1983-88 net change data for engineers typical of other periods, or are dley unique? While differences do exist that reflect differences in labor market conditions for engineers, the 1978-1983 patterns for engineers are remarkably similar to those for 1983-1988 (Table 15): net entrants are concentrated in the age 25-29 group, and few net leavers are observed prior to age 60. Note that total net entrants are greater and less concentrated in 1978-1983 dean in 1983-1988. The implication is that as 100
Table 15. Net Change Data for Engineers, 1983-1988 and 1978-1983 Net Entrants 1983-1988 1978-1983 Total employed Number (thousands) Percent Tote ~. 359 468 100.0 100.0 Net Leavers 1983-1988 1978-1983 157 112 100.0 100.0 1988 Age group 16-20 1.2 1.0 - - 21-24 25.9 27.4 25-29 52.9 42.3 - - 30-34 6.7 16.7 35-39 3.1 4.7 40-44 5.8 4.5 45-49 4.5 3.4 50-54 - - 4.5 .9 55-59 - - 14.0 17.9 60-64 - - 36.9 41.1 65-69 - - 33.8 36.6 70-74 - - 7.0 2.7 75-99 - - 3.8 .9 SOURCE: 1978, 1983 and 1988 Current Populanon~ 7 = more engineers are needed, recent engineering graduates become a smaller proportion of entrants. Although the patterns of leavers in 1983-1988 and 1978-1983 were similar, net leavers as a proportion of persons age 45 and older increased from 21 percent to 27 percent. Whether the difference reflects the tendency of men to retire earlier or if unique market conditions in 1978-1983 provided incentives to continue working cannot be determined. Past Versus the Future A lot of formation about engineers during the 1980s has been examined. Growth, gross movements into and out of engineering, movements from and to the labor force- all provide part of the story about engineers that aids in analysis. While recognizing Mat it is impossible to know positively if data relating to the 19SOs are appropriate to a 101
future period, it is a useful exercise to make assumptions about the future and to compare the results with conditions in the past. In this case, demand for additional engineers in 1978-1988 is compared with information for the 1988-1998 period. Demand for additional engineers results from growth and the need to replace workers who leave the occupation. Growth is the easier component to identify. Based on CPS annual average data, engineer employment 1978-1988 increased by 559,000 while experiencing twice tile growth rate for all workers (Table 161. By applying the BES projected 1988-2000 annual rate of increase to 1988 employment and calculating the change, engineering employment is expected to grow less rapidly but increase by 415,000 in the period 1988-1998. Estimating replacements is more complicated. Gross flow data indicate about ~ percent of engineers leave the occupation from one year to the next. Some become managers and leave permanently; others retire and leave permanently; yet others leave temporarily to work in another occupation or stop working for a variety of reasons. The group that leaves temporarily not only creates openings, but, when returning to the occupation, constitutes part of the entrants. Because the number of temporary movements out of an occupation are greatly affected by market conditions, they are the most difficult to quantify. It is safe to say, however, that if more engineers are needed, adjustments In Me labor market win occur. Perhaps more technicians or college graduates with different specializations win be utilized. Quality may suffer, but adjustments will be made. While recognizing that many opportunities arise because Individuals leave eng~neenng temporarily, in this exercise, only opportunities resulting from permanent separations are examined. To estimate permanent separations, net leavers 1978-1988 were calculated by age groups and summed to yield an estimate of 269,000 engineers who were replaced. To calculate replacement needs 1988-199S, the proportion of net leavers from engineering 1978-1988 in each age group was calculated and applied to 1988 data for the comparable age group. After summing, replacement needs 1988-1998 were determined to increase by 56,000 (20.8 percent), to 325,000. The increase is the result of an acing work force. In summary, from 1978-1988 there was a need for 828,000 additional engineers. Over the 1988- 1998 decade, the need is expected to decline ~ ~ percent to 740,000. One note of caution before concluding that competition for new engineers win ease. In 1978, the population contained 61.] Onion persons age I~24, the source of most additional engineers. In 1988 the population in that same age group had declined to 54.0 minion, an ~ ~ percent decline ahnost identical to the expected ~ ~ percent decline in the need for additional engineers (Table 17~. 102
Table 16. lob Opportunities for Engineers, 1978-1988 and 1988-1998 (in thousands) 1978-1988 1988-1998 - Percent Change Total 828 740 - 10.6 Growth 559 415 -25.8 Replacement needsa 269 325 20.8 a Estimate of net leavers. Table 17. Population Age 10-24, 1978 and 1988 (in thousands) 1978 l Total 1988 Percent Change Age 10-24 61,101 54,028 -11.6 Age 10-14 18,920 16,627 -12.1 Age 15-19 21,435 18,214 -15.0 Age 20-24 20,748 19,184 -7.5 . SOURCE: 1978 and 1988 Current Population Survey annual average data. Conclusion Many organizations, including die National Science Foundation and the Center for Education Statistics, are widely known for their efforts to collect and maintain data about engineers. Perhaps less well known is the information available fimm Bureau of Labor Sta~as~acs that has been presented in this paper. Much of the data on occupational transfers and job tenure are unique because they are collected only in special supplements to the Current Population Survey. The last was conducted in January 1987. Unfortunately, another supplement has not been scheduled and, even if the money were found, probably could not be conducted before 1991 because the Bureau of the Census will be concentrating its efforts on the 1990 Census of Population. Now is the time to utilize what is available and to plan for obtaining that which is desired. 103
APPENDIX A OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS SURVEY DEFINITIONS FOR ENGINEERS Forms used in the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey include these definitions to be used by employers in identifying engineers. 22100 Engineers Include persons engaged in the practical application of physical laws and principles of engineering for die development and utilization of machines, matenals, instruments, processes, and services. Include engineers in research development, production, technical services, and other positions which require knowledge normally obtained through completion of a 4-year engineering college program. Exclude persons Rained in engineering but currently working in positions not requiring en~neenng Gaining. 22102 Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineers Perform a vanety of engineering work in designing, constructing, and testing aircraft, missiles, and spacecraft May conduct basic and applied research to evaluate adaptability of matenals and equipment to aircraft design and manufacture. May recommend improvements in testing equipment and techniques. Exclude sales engineers and report them with the sales workers. 22105 Metallurgists and Metallurgical, Ceramic, and Materials Engineers Metallurgists and Metallurgical Engineers: Investigate properties of metals and develop methods to produce new alloys, usages, and processes of extracting metals from their ores. Include Physical and proactive Metallurgists. Ceramic Engineers: Conduct research, design machinery, and develop processing techniques related to the manufacturing of ceramic products. Materials Engineers: Evaluate, plan, and implement processes to develop new matenals to meet product specifications, performance standards, and costs. Exclude sales engineers and report them with the sales workers. 22108 Mining Engineers, including Mine Safety Determine the location and plan the extraction of coal, metallic ores, nonmetallic minerals, and building materials, such as stone and gravel. Work involves: Conducting preliminary surveys of deposits or undeveloped mines and planning their development; examining deposits or mines to determine whether they can be worked at a profit; making geological and topographical surveys; evolving methods of mining best suited to character, type, and size of deposits; and supervising mining operations. Exclude sales engineers and report them with sales workers. 104
22111 Petroleum Engineers Devise methods to improve of! and gas well production and determine Me need for new or modified too} designs. Oversee drilling and offer technical advice to achieve economical and satisfactory progress. Exclude sales engineers and report them with the sales workers. 22114 Chemical Engineers Design chemical plant equipment and devise processes for manufacturing chemicals and products, such as gasoline, synthetic rubber, plastics, detergents, cement, paper and pulp, applying pnnciples and technology of chemistry, physics, and engineering. Exclude sales engineers and report them with the sales workers. 22117 Nuclear Engineers Conduct research on nuclear engineering problems or apply principles and theory of nuclear science to problems concerned with release, control, and utilization of nuclear energy. Exclude sales engineers and report them with the sales workers. 22121 Civil Engineers, including Traffic Perform a variety of engineering work in planning, designing, and overseeing construction and maintenance of structures and facilities, such as roads, railroads, aborts, bridges, harbors, channels, dams, irrigation projects, pipelines, power plants, water and sewage systems, and waste disposal units. Include traffic engineers who specialize in studying vehicular and pedestnan traffic conditions. 22123 Agricultural Engineers Applying knowledge of ¢ngineenng technology and biological science to agncultural problems concerned with power and machinery, electrification, structures, soil and water conservation, and processing of a~cuinu~ products. Exclude sales engineers and report them with the sales workers. 22126 Electrical and Electronic Engineers Design, develop, test and supervise the manufacture and installation of electrical and electronic equipment, components or systems, computers and related equipment and systems for commercial, industrial, military or scientific use. Exclude sales engineers and report Hem with the sales workers. 22128 Industrial Engineers, except Safety Perform a variety of engineering work in planning and overseeing the utilization of production facilities and personnel in department or other subdivision of industrial 105
establishment. Plan equipment layout, work flow, and accident prevention In department or other subdivision of industrial establishment. Plan and oversee work, study and Mining programs to promote efficient worker utilization. Develop and oversee quality control, inventory control, and production record systems. Industrial product safety engineers should be included with safety engineers. 22132 Safety Engineers, except Mining Apply knowledge of industrial processes, mechanics' chemistry, psychology, and ndustnal health and safety laws to prevent or correct injurious environmental conditions and maize effects of human traits that create hazards to life and property or reduce worker morale and efficiency. Include industrial product safety engineers. 22135 Mechanical Engineers Perfonn a variety of engineering work in the planning and designing of tools, engines, machines, and other mechanically functioning equipment; and oversee ~nstaDation, operation, maintenance, and rep air of such equipment, including cen~ized heat, gas, water, and steam systems. Exclude sales engineers and report them with the sales workers. 22138 Marine Engineers Design, develop, and take responsibility for the installation of ship machinery and related equipment, including propulsion machines and power supply systems. Exclude marine architects. Exclude sales engineers and report them with the sales workers. 2199 All Other Engineers Include all other workers in this category not classified separately above. Please identify in Section V (at the end of this form) all occupations included in this category that are numerically important and require substantial gaining, or are emerging due to technological changes in your industry. 1 106
APPENDIX B 1980 CENSUS OF POPULATION CLASSIFIED INDEX OF INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS: INFORMATION ABOUT ENGINEERS The following lists occupational titles for each of the engineering categories. In some cases only an occupational title is listed; in others an industry name anchor industry co`le is includeci. When no industry information is provided the occupational title is classified in the category regardless of the industry. If industry infonnation appears, however, the title is classified in the category only if He individual reporting the title also identified the corresponding industry. Additional information and industry names for codes are provided in the 1980 Census of Population Classified Index of Occupations. Professional Specially Occupations 044 Aerospace engineers Ae~ynamicist-352~362 Aircraft designer Airplane designer Aviation consultant Design analyst- 352,362 Designer 352,362 Dynamicist 352,362 . - ~ngmeer Aerodynamics Aeronautical Aerospace A - aR AiIcrai t instrument Airplane Astronautical Aviation-(352) Chief, n.s. 352,362 Design, n.s. 352,362 Field service-352,362 Flight 352,362 Flight test 292,352,362,931,932 Helicopter (352) Propeller 352,362 Propulsion-352,362 Stress-352,362 Supersonic 352,362 Test-352,362 Test facility 292,352,362 Thermodynamics-352,362 Transonic-352,362 Vibration-352,362 Wind tunnel 352,362 N.s. 352,362 Flight analyst 352,362 Flight dynamicist Master-lay-out man-352,362 Physical aer~ynamicist 352,362 Sweet analyst-352 Test analyst- 352,362 Thennodynamicist- 352,362 045 Metallurgical and materials engineers , ~ ngmeer Ceramic (882) Design, n.s. 270-280 Foundry process Matenals Exc. B Metallurgical Ore dressing Process-272,280,290,291,300,301 Refining-270-280 Smelting Stress 270,271,280-291,300 Testing 270,271,280-291,300 Welding Effective metallurgist Foundry metallurgist Metallographer Metallurgical specialist Metallurgist 107
Physical me~urgist Radiologist Exc. K,812-840 046 Mining engineers Engineer Design, n.s.-040,041,050 Exploration 040,041,050 Geological 040-050 Geophysical Mine development Mine exploration Mine production Miner log Safety 040,041,050 Inspector Safety, n.s. 040-050 Mine analyst 040,041,050 Mine expert- 040,041,050 Supervisor Safety 040,041,050 Teachers, exe. elementary and secondary Safety U.S. Bureau of Mines 931 047 Petroleum engineers Engineer Design, n.s. 042 Exploration 042 Logging 042 Mud-042 Natural gas 042 Oil well-042 Petroleum Safety 042 Test 042 WeD surveying-042 N.s. 042 Prospecting observer 042 Safety analyst 042 Safety director-042 Seismic observer 042 Superintendent, of] well services 042 Supervisor Mud-analysis 042 Well-Iogging captain 042 048 Chemical engineers Blending coordinate 200 Engineer Absorption Adso~pnon Chemical (882) Chemical process development Chemical test Corrosion Design, n.s.-180-201 Explosives Fuels Gas combustion Lubricating 200 Plant 180-192 Plastics Plating Process 180-200 Research chemical N.s. 180,181-192,210,211 Manager Research-200 Sand analyst 270-291~300-370,400,760 Sand technologist-270-291,30 370,400,760 Supervisor Monomer-recov~y 180, 182,191,192 Poly-area-180-192 Polymerization-18~192 Technical 18~192 Technical director 180-192 049 Nuclear engineers E. ng~neer Atomic process Design, nuclear equipment Nuclear Radiation Radiation protection Radiological Reactor Radiation officer- FGOV Radiological -defense officer FGOV 108
053 Civil engineers Engineer Atomic process Design, nuclear equipment Nuclear Radiation Radiation protection Radiological Reactor Radiation officer- FGOV Radiolog~cal-defense officer FGOV 053 Civil engineers Engineer Ailport- B Architectural Asphalt Base FGOV Bndge B Building 441 Building construction Cadas~ Cartographic Chief, n.s. 470 cite Concrete Condemnation 412,900-932 Construction Contracting B County- (B) Demolition Design, bndges (~82) Design, highway Design, road Design, n.s. B District-B Drainage (B) Erecting Exc. 310,312,320, 331,332 nOOd control (B) Forestry Foundation-(B) Geodetic Geological Exc. 04~050 Highway Highway research Highway safety Hydraulic Exc. C, 100-392 Hydrographic · - mgatlon Maintenance 400 Mapping Ma~cenals B Municipal (B) Process B Public health (840) Railroad, exe. operating main Reclamation (B) Resident Road B Sanitary Sanitation, exe. wash or garbage collection Sewage disposal Street-B Street B S rum Structural steel - (471) Topographical Traffic B,400 Transportation Traveling-B Water supply Water treatment plant Zoning City Planning Board 901 N.s.-B,H,LGOV 900-932 N.s. Surveying co. 882 Supenntendent, n.s. 470 054 Agricultural engineers E. ngmeer Agriculhual Design, n.s. 311 Test 311 05S Electrical and electronic engineers Assigner, exe. clerical- 441 Assignment man-441 Circuit designer-340-350 Communications consultant 441 Electrolysis investigator 441 109
Electron~c-parts designer 340-350 Engineer Acoustical Audio-882 Cable-441 Central-office equipment Chief, n.s.-440,441,460 Circuit design Commercial- 440,44l,460 Circuit design Commercial 440,460,462 Communications Computer application Corrosion control Design, electncal Design, electronic equipment Design, n.s.-340-350,440-460 Dial equipment-441 Distribution 460 Distnct plant 441 Division-460 Division plant 441 Electrical Electrolysis Flectronic Electronic systems Elecmophonic Equipment 441,460 Facilities 441 Guidance and control systems ~u~na~g Induction coordination Lighting Line construction 460 Maintenance 460 Meter 460 Microwave Outside plant 441 Plant-441,460,462 Power generation-460 Protection 460 Radar Radio Radio station Relay 460 Results 460 Rural elec~if~ca~aon Service-340-350,460 Signal Sound 800 Station, n.s. 440 Studio operation 441 Systems Telecommunications Telephone- (4413 Television (440) Testing-Electrical engineering co.~82 Traffic- 44l,442 Traffic circuit-441 Traffic routing 441 Transmission 441,460 Transmitter 441 Wire communications N.s. 32l,342,382,44l,442,460 Engineering analyst Inspector Cable 460 Line-construction superintendent 441,460 Radiminterference expert Supervisor Microwave 056 Industrial engineers Efficiency analyst (742) Efficiency expert (742) ~ - . ~ngmeer Efficiency Establishing methods C,100-222, 231-392 Factory lay-out Field-H Fire prevention U.S. Army Base 932 hndusmal Inspecting H Manufactunng, exe. chief Methods Production Production too] Quality condor ~0
Safety Any not listed above Standards Time study Industnal-methods consultant (~82) Matenal analyst 352,362 Matenal scheduler 352,362 Medical-safety director Oxygen 192 Metrologist Production-contro! expert Production-contro! planner-C,100-392 Production expert P: - uction planner Exc. 341 P: - ucuon scheduler C, 100-392 Quality-contro} director Quality-contro! expert Safety coordinator C,100-392 Safer director Exc. 040-050,410 Supervisor Safety-C,100-392 Tool planner-C,100-392 Traffic-rate analyst C,100-392 Waste-elimination man 057 Mechanical engineers engine designer ~ - . ~ngmeer · · · · . Alr cone 1tlonlng, exe. open air coed. systems Auto research Automotive Exc. 351,590, 612-622,750,751 - Body 351 Brake 351 Combustion Cryogenics Design, cooling and hearing systems Design, machine Design, mechanical Design, tool Design, n.s. 281-291,300-310, 312-332,351,361,370,760 Diesel Exc. 400 Distribution 461 Dust control Equipment-Exc. 441,460 Erecting - 310,312,320,331,332 Field service 310,312,320, 331,332 Heating, exe. operators of heating systems Hydraulic-C, 100-392 Internal combustion Mechanical Mechanical development Mechanical research Plant-Mfg. not listed above Ref~igeranon, exe. open Of refrig. systems Sheet metal 282 Textile Tool Tool and die Tooling Utilization 460-462 Ventilating N.s. 292,331,351 Factory expert-351 Machine designer Machine-tool designer Safety analyst Exc. 040-050 Venulaung expert (B) 058 Marine engineers and nave! architects Engineer Boat (420) Chief, n.s. 420 Chief, n.s.-Commercial fishing 031 Hull-360 Licensed marine-420 Maline Exc. fire department 910 Naval Pore 420 Ship 420 Tugboat-420 N.s.- 360,420 Marine architect (882) 111
Manne surveyor Naval architect (~82) 059 Engineers, n.e.c. Engineer Application, exe. computer application Biomedical Chief, n.s. 882 Consulting, n.s.-(~82) Design, n.s.-Any not listed above Distnbution-Exc. 460,461 District plant - Exc. 441 Environmental Factory Human factors Installation Logistics 292,352,362 Ma~emancal Medical Optical (372) Ordnance Packaging Photographic PoDution~ontro} Process Any not listed above Reliability Salvage Exc. 332 Service 882 Staff, field Technical, testing 800 Technical, n.s. (~82) Testing Any not listed above Traffic Any not listed above N.s. OWN 882 Exc. surveying co. N.s. 730, FGOV 900-932 112
