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make the changes greater. In addition, although beyond the time horizon of this report, continued emissions beyond 2030 will further increase the projected temperature change.

The extent to which changes in radiative forcing will be significant to society depends on the climate sensitivity and the consequent climatic impacts on human activities and natural systems. Given that past climates have varied substantially as a result of comparable forcings and that ecosystems under such conditions were quite different than at present, however, this schematic analysis suggests that significant climate change will be very difficult to avoid, although its rate of onset may be slowed.

References

Emanuel, W. R., G. G. Killough, W. M. Post, H. H. Shugart, and M. P. Stevenson. 1989. Computer Implementation of a Globally Averaged Model of the World Carbon Cycle. TR010. Washington, D.C.: Carbon Dioxide Research Division, U.S. Department of Energy.

Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and M. Prather. 1989. Greenhouse effect of chlorofluorocarbons and other trace gases. Journal of Geophysical Research 94:16417–16421.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1990. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, eds. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Trabalka, J. R., ed. 1985. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle. DOE/ER-0239. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy.

Wang, W.-C., M. P. Dudek, X.-Z. Liang, and J. T. Kiehl. 1991. Inadequacy of effective CO2 as a proxy in simulating the greenhouse effect of other radiatively active gases. Nature 350:573–577.



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