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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992)
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP)

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. "33 Methods and Tools." Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1992.

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FIGURE 33.1 Growth, thinning by competition, and death of a tract of forest is a cycle.

NOTE: The stage of Death/Regeneration is the ''most stochastic" or most uncertain stage. It could lead
to "alternate composition" of the forest, that is, a succeeding and different species mix.

SOURCE: Reprinted, by permission, from Shugart et al. (1986). Copyright © 1986 by SCOPE.

storm, or pest. With the death of the persistent trees, the forest would then adjust more rapidly.

Other forces will likely affect the natural system on the tract and its adjustment to climate. People may clear, plant, manage, or abandon the tract; storms could uproot the trees; or fires might blacken the landscape. Their impacts may obscure or modify those of climate change. Or, as explained above, they may hasten the adjustment of the forest to the new climate.

An alternative to thinking of the adjustments on a given tract of land is thinking of the migration of an ecosystem or community from tract to tract in response to climate changes.

Communities are composed of species populations … connected by a web of interspecific relationships that have evolved over thousands or millions of years. If entire communities or all the species except for a few minor ones migrate, these community interactions may be preserved. In the highly disturbed

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Front Matter (R1-R26)
Part One: Synthesis (1-2)
1 Introduction (3-4)
2 Background (5-11)
3 The Greenhouse Gases and Their Effects (12-28)
4 Policy Framework (29-35)
5 Adaptation (36-47)
6 Mitigation (48-64)
7 International Considerations (65-67)
8 Findings and Conclusions (68-72)
9 Recommendations (73-83)
Individual Statement by a Member Of The Synthesis Panel (84-86)
Part Two: The Science Base (87-88)
10 Introduction (89-90)
11 Emission Rates and Concentrations Of Greenhouse Gases (91-99)
12 Radiative Forcing and Feedback (100-110)
13 Model Performance (111-116)
14 The Climate Record (117-134)
15 Hydrology (135-139)
16 Sea Level (140-144)
17 A Greenhouse Forcing and Temperature Rise Estimation Procedure (145-152)
18 Conclusions (153-154)
Part Three: Mitigation (155-156)
19 Introduction (157-170)
20 Framework for Evaluating Mitigation Options (171-200)
21 Residential and Commercial Energy Management (201-247)
22 Industrial Energy Management (248-285)
23 Transportation Energy Management (286-329)
24 Energy Supply Systems (330-375)
25 Nonenergy Emission Reduction (376-413)
26 Population (414-423)
27 Deforestation (424-432)
28 Geoengineering (433-464)
29 Findings and Recommendations (465-498)
Part Four: Adaptation (499-500)
30 Findings (501-507)
31 Recommendations (508-514)
32 Issues, Assumptions, and Values (515-524)
33 Methods and Tools (525-540)
34 Sesitivities, Impacts, and Adaptations (541-652)
35 Indices (653-656)
36 Final Words (657-658)
Individual Statement by a Member of the Adaptation Panel (659-660)
Appendixes (661-662)
A Questions and Answers About Greenhouse Warming (663-691)
B Thinking About Time in the Context of Global Climate Change (692-707)
C Conservation Supply Curves for Buildings (708-716)
D Conservation Supply Curves for Industrial Energy Use (717-726)
E Conservation Supply Data for Three Transportation Sectors (727-758)
F Transportation System Management (759-766)
G Nuclear Energy (767-774)
H A Solar Hydrogen System (775-778)
I Biomass (779-785)
J Cost-Effectiveness of Electrical Generation Technologies (786-791)
K Cost-Effectiveness of Chlorofluorocarbon Phaseout—United States and Worldwide (792-797)
L Agriculture (798-807)
M Landfill Methane Reduction (808-808)
N Population Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions (809-811)
O Deforestation Prevention (812-813)
P Reforestation (814-816)
Q Geoengineering Options (817-835)
R Description of Economic Estimates of the Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Emissions (836-839)
S Glossary (840-846)
T Conversion Tables (847-848)
U Prefaces from the Individual Panel Reports (849-854)
V Acknowledgments from the Individual Panel Reports (855-857)
W Background Information on Panel Members and Professional Staff (858-868)
Index (869-918)