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7
International Considerations
Effective action to slow greenhouse warming will require
international effort regardless of policies in the United States.
Many of the cost-effective options appropriate for the United
States are also applicable in other countries, including developing
nations. The coal resources in China and the former USSR alone
ensure that without their cooperation, policies aimed at
stabilizing greenhouse emissions elsewhere would probably be doomed
to failure. Yet the position of the United States as the current
largest emitter of greenhouse gases means that action in the rest
of the world will be effective only if the United States does its
share.
Developing countries may participate in the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions if the first steps are taken by the
industrialized countries and if some sort of international
agreement is made providing them with additional financial and
technical resources to make the necessary changes.
Global population growth, which will largely take place in
developing countries, is a fundamental contributor to increasing
emissions of greenhouse gases. Developing countries accounted for
about 17 percent of world commercial energy consumption 20 years
ago, and about 23 percent today. They are expected to account for
about 40 percent by 2030. Although it is the industrialized world
that contributes most of the current greenhouse gas emissions, this
will likely change in the future. Emissions from developing
countries will become even more important as they improve their
economies and consume more fossil fuels. Either increasing
population or growing economic activity can increase emissions of
greenhouse gases. Even with rapid technological progress, slowing
global population growth is a necessary component for the long-term
control of greenhouse gas emissions. Although it may not be
financially costly, it is beset with other political, social, and
ideological obstacles.
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The long-term control of greenhouse gas emissions will require
the diffusion and implementation of technology in developing
countries. A real challenge will be to ensure that technologies
reach those who need them, overcoming such obstacles as lack of
information or inability to pay for them. The technological
capabilities of developing countries need to be improved. The
creation and enhancement of the infrastructure for research and
absorption of technology form a precondition for this improvement.
Programs in agriculture, forestry, pollution control, and housing
might be used both as vehicles for the transfer of relevant
technologies and for the enhancement of the research and technology
infrastructure.
Similarly, reversing deforestation, to lower atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the short term, raises a host
of issues other than costs. It will be important for international
programs to use a broad perspective.
International Activities
Much work has already been accomplished on the international
level, and more is currently under way. Internationally, research
on a variety of global change issues (including greenhouse warming)
is being undertaken principally under the auspices of two
complementary scientific programs: the World Climate Research
Program (WCRP) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program
(IGBP). The WCRP was established by the World Meteorological
Organization in 1979 under its overall program, the World Climate
Program (WCP). Its major objectives are to determine the extent to
which climate can be predicted and the extent of human influence on
climate. The IGBP was adopted by the International Council of
Scientific Unions (ICSU) in 1986. The objective of the program is
to describe the interactive physical, chemical, and biological
processes that regulate the total earth system.
In 1988 the World Meteorological Organization and the United
Nations Environment Programme sponsored the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC). At the first IPCC meeting, in November
1988, three working groups were set up: Working Group I, to provide
a scientific assessment of climate change; Working Group II, to
provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change;
and Working Group III, to consider response strategies. Hundreds of
scientists from different countries contributed to the IPCC report
produced in 1990.
The Second World Climate Conference was convened in late 1990
under the sponsorship of several U.N. organizations. The conference
was separated into a scientific and technical session and a
ministerial session. The conference discussed the results of the
first decade of work under the WCP, the First Assessment Report of
the IPCC, and the development of the IGBP. The scientific and
technical session produced conclusions and recommendations
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in three areas: (1) greenhouse gases and climate change; (2) use
of climate information in assisting sustainable social and economic
development; and (3) priorities for enhanced research and
observational systems. The ministerial declaration essentially
recognized greenhouse warming to be an international problem and
urged further elaboration and assessment of response
strategies.
A large number of deliberations are under way concerning
international negotiations on greenhouse issues. Recent experiences
with the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone
Layer and its subsequent elaboration in the London Protocol and
with the earlier Law of the Sea provide guidance about what
approaches are useful and what to avoid. It is expected, however,
that negotiations about limiting greenhouse warming will be more
difficult than their predecessors in the environmental area.
Future International Agreements
There is a growing momentum in the international community for
completion of an international agreement on climate change in time
for signing at the 1992 U.N. World Conference on Environment and
Development. The first meeting of the Ad Hoc Working Group of
Government Representatives to Prepare for Negotiations on a
Framework Convention on Climate Change was held in February 1991.
The panel believes that the United States should fully participate
in this process.
Identification of priority actions should take full account of
their potential to reduce or offset greenhouse gas emissions and
their costs of implementation. Further, the panel believes that
international arrangements should allow nations to receive credit
for actions taken to reduce or offset emissions in other countries.
In other words, under such an arrangement countries like the United
States could negotiate interventions in other countries if these
proved more cost-effective than domestic actions.
Other Actions
The importance of multilateral international agreements should
not obscure the value of unilateral or bilateral action. The United
States should not only adjust its own policies, but also pursue
bilateral agreements and technical assistance programs that promote
reforestation, protection of biodiversity, and greater energy
efficiency.
In framing actions to respond to greenhouse warming, the United
States should consider cooperative programs in other countries that
might be more cost-effective than domestic options.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
greenhouse gas
