presented to the Effects Panel, the members promptly and correctly insisted that there does not exist, nor is it likely that there will soon exist, a predictive capability that could quantify these indices in a useful or credible way. So, we shall not soon have the scenarios required for estimating impacts and adaptations quantitatively. For a long time we must be satisfied with the sort of examples and benchmarks described in this report.
1. An agriculturalist book of China written by Fan Sheng-Chih in the first century B.C. begins, "The basic principles of farming are: choose the right time, break up the soil, see to its fertility and moisture, hoe early and harvest early" (translated by Shui Sheng-Han, 1982, Science Press, Peking, China).
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