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higher energy prices than those now prevalent (e.g., electricity prices 2 to 3 times higher).

An estimate of the electricity conservation potential of the overall U.S. manufacturing sector has been developed by Ross (1990a), based on an aggregation of results for aluminum production, fabrication/assembly processes, and other selected process industries, and assuming a capital recovery rate of 33 percent. Figures D.1 to D.3 show the electricity conservation supply curves first developed for individual manufacturing industries. The curve for fabrication and assembly (Figure D.1), developed from studies of the automobile industry, was assumed to apply to a number of other industry groups as well. The results from Figures D.1 to D.3 were then combined by using energy weights based on 1985 electricity consumption (i.e., 1260, 190, and 768 × 1012 Btu for process industries, aluminum, and fabrication/assembly, respectively (Ross, 1990b)). This yielded the overall manufacturing sector curve shown in Figure D.4.

The curve in Figure D.4 can also be transformed into a cost-effectiveness curve for CO2 reductions similar to those presented in Chapter 21 for residential and commercial buildings. The electricity savings percentages on the x-axis are first converted to kilowatt-hours by employing the total 1985 manufacturing electricity use of 653 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh) (which was the basis for the estimates of Ross). Current (1989) electricity use is

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FIGURE D.1 Supply curve: Fabrication and assembly.

SOURCE: Ross (1990b).



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