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Representative terms from entire chapter:
population growth
Page 809
Appendix N
Population Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
By utilizing World Bank categories of actual economic growth
experience and projected population growth rates, the scenarios for
population, per capita income, CO2
emissions, and family planning (FP) effect are computed and
reported in Table N.1. Each group of countries is indexed to 1.00
in 1990. Thus numbers reported for the years 2020, 2050, and 2100
are multiples of the 1990 base.
The rules for calculations include the following:
1. Population is projected for the 1990 to 2020 period by
using World Bank projections for 1987 to 2000 for each group. The
growth rates (as shown in Table N.1) are from the World Development
Report, Table 6. For 2020 to 2050, each group is expected to
achieve the population projection for the next highest group in the
1990 to 2020 period (except for the NIEs, who remain at the 1987 to
2000 level). The situation is similar for 2050 to 2100, except that
the NIEs have stationary growth.
2. As shown in Table N.1, per capita income for 1990 to
2020 is projected to grow at actual 1965 to 1987 rates (World Bank,
1989, Table 1), except that the NIEs maintain their high growth
rates only for 1990 to 2020 and then revert to the
upper-middle-income economy growth rates after 2020.
3. Annual CO2 emissions are
calculated from population and income projections. It is assumed
that CO2 emissions increase
proportionately with population for all income levels. For low
income levels (i.e., multiples below 5), it is assumed that CO2 emissions additionally increase
proportionately with per capita income growth. For higher incomes,
CO2 emissions increase less than
proportionately with per capita income growth (i.e., at 0.8 for
income multiples between 5 and 10, 0.7 for multiples between 10 and
30, and 0.6 for higher multiples). These estimates are based on
World Bank Estimates (Siddayo, 1987).
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TABLE N.1 Relationship Between Population and Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
Low-Income Economies
Lower- Middle-Income Economies
Upper- Middle-Income Economies
Newly Industrialized Economies
Population
(2.6)
(2.1)
(1.7)
(0.8)
1990
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2020
2.16
1.87
1.66
1.27
2050
4.03
3.10
2.10
1.61
2100
9.36
4.62
3.12
1.61
Per capita income
(1.5)
(2.2)
(2.9)
(6.2)
1990
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2020
1.56
1.92
2.35
6.07
2050
2.43
3.69
5.54
14.31
2100
5.11
10.95
23.14
59.75
CO2 emissions,
annual
1990
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2020
3.37
3.59
3.90
6.17
2050
9.79
11.44
11.63
16.12
2100
47.83
40.47
67.06
57.71
CO2 emissions,
cumulated
1990
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2020
65.5
68.8
73.5
107.5
2050
262.9
294.3
306.4
441.3
2100
1,703.4
1,591
2,271
2,286
Family planning effect (base = CO2 emission, cumulated)
1990
2020
0.20
0.56
0.49
1.34
2050
2.94
3.43
6.54
7.01
2100
58.71
51.90
34.65
89.09
Page 811
4. The cumulative CO2
emissions simply sum up annual emissions to the period
indicated.
5. "Family planning" effects are calculated as the
difference in population between a given group and the next lower
group, multiplied by the income multiples of the group. Thus they
represent the amount of increased emissions if the population were
as large as it would be with the next lower group's population. For
the lowest-income economies, the family planning effect is presumed
to be the difference between the actual 2.8 percent growth rate
over the 1965 to 1987 period and the 2.6 percent projected for 1987
to 2000.
These calculations are based on actual evidence to a
considerable extent. A number of countries in the low-income
category are actually experiencing no per capita income growth, and
many are experiencing population growth more rapid than 2.6
percent. Construction of scenarios for these cases would not be
very realistic.
The major points of this exercise are that family planning
impacts on greenhouse gas emissions are important at all levels of
development. It is probably not feasible to achieve low population
growth rates without moving up the development scale. The reduced
population growth associated with higher-income growth (and to a
small degree with lower-income elasticities as income rises)
offsets in large part the higher greenhouse gas emissions
associated with faster economic growth.
The family planning effects indicate that as of the year 2020,
carbon emissions will be about 15 percent lower for the
lower-middle- and upper-middle-income countries than they would be
without family planning. Strong family planning programs are in the
interests of all countries for greenhouse gas concerns as well as
for broader welfare concerns.
References
Siddayo, C. 1987. Petroleum resources in the Pacific rim: The
roles played by governments in their development and trade. In The
Pacific Rim: Investment, Development, and Trade, P. Nemetz, ed.
Vancouver, B.C.: University of British Columbia Press.
World Bank. 1989. 1989 World Development Report. Washington,
D.C.: World Bank.
