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## Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992) Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP)

### Citation Manager

. "Q Geoengineering Options." Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1992.

 Page 818

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Page 818

Thus

are required. Therefore, operating inventory of 4 × 102 riflescan be assumedat any time.

A gun barrel will have to be replaced approximately every 1500 shots; thus over the 40 years,

will be needed. A gun barrel probably would cost (in continuous production

several hundred thousand dollars—say a million dollars. The total cost of rifle barrels is thus3 × 105 barrels × 106 \$/barrel = \$3 ×1011 for barrels.

If the rifles are organized into 10-barrel stations, on land or at sea, and a billion dollars is allocated for the capital cost of each station, one might expect to buy 40 10-barrel stations to keep 350 barrels operating at a time, thus giving a cost for stations of 40 stations × 109 \$/station = \$4 × 1010.

This should probably be doubled, at least; to allow for overhead, power, maintenance, replacement, and so on. Multiplying by 5 gives \$2 × 1011 for stations.

Finally, people are needed to operate the system. Although the system would probably be highly automated, assume that it will work like current operations. Then allocate 10 people/barrel × 4 × 102 barrels × 3 shifts × \$105/person/yr × 40 years = \$48 × 109 \$5 × 1010, which can be doubled to include indirect personnel, overhead, and so on, giving \$1011 for operators. Therefore, 24,000 people are assumed to be involved at any time.

To sum up,

 Ammunition \$4 × 1012 = 4.0 × 1012 Rifle barrels \$3 × 1011 = 0.3 × 1012 Stations \$2 × 1011 = 0.2 × 1012 People \$1 × 1011 = 0.1 × 1012 TOTAL \$4.6 × 1012 \$5 × 1012 for 40 years,

giving an annual undiscounted cost of \$50/40 × 1011 = \$100billion.

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 Front Matter (R1-R26) Part One: Synthesis (1-2) 1 Introduction (3-4) 2 Background (5-11) 3 The Greenhouse Gases and Their Effects (12-28) 4 Policy Framework (29-35) 5 Adaptation (36-47) 6 Mitigation (48-64) 7 International Considerations (65-67) 8 Findings and Conclusions (68-72) 9 Recommendations (73-83) Individual Statement by a Member Of The Synthesis Panel (84-86) Part Two: The Science Base (87-88) 10 Introduction (89-90) 11 Emission Rates and Concentrations Of Greenhouse Gases (91-99) 12 Radiative Forcing and Feedback (100-110) 13 Model Performance (111-116) 14 The Climate Record (117-134) 15 Hydrology (135-139) 16 Sea Level (140-144) 17 A Greenhouse Forcing and Temperature Rise Estimation Procedure (145-152) 18 Conclusions (153-154) Part Three: Mitigation (155-156) 19 Introduction (157-170) 20 Framework for Evaluating Mitigation Options (171-200) 21 Residential and Commercial Energy Management (201-247) 22 Industrial Energy Management (248-285) 23 Transportation Energy Management (286-329) 24 Energy Supply Systems (330-375) 25 Nonenergy Emission Reduction (376-413) 26 Population (414-423) 27 Deforestation (424-432) 28 Geoengineering (433-464) 29 Findings and Recommendations (465-498) Part Four: Adaptation (499-500) 30 Findings (501-507) 31 Recommendations (508-514) 32 Issues, Assumptions, and Values (515-524) 33 Methods and Tools (525-540) 34 Sesitivities, Impacts, and Adaptations (541-652) 35 Indices (653-656) 36 Final Words (657-658) Individual Statement by a Member of the Adaptation Panel (659-660) Appendixes (661-662) A Questions and Answers About Greenhouse Warming (663-691) B Thinking About Time in the Context of Global Climate Change (692-707) C Conservation Supply Curves for Buildings (708-716) D Conservation Supply Curves for Industrial Energy Use (717-726) E Conservation Supply Data for Three Transportation Sectors (727-758) F Transportation System Management (759-766) G Nuclear Energy (767-774) H A Solar Hydrogen System (775-778) I Biomass (779-785) J Cost-Effectiveness of Electrical Generation Technologies (786-791) K Cost-Effectiveness of Chlorofluorocarbon PhaseoutÂ—United States and Worldwide (792-797) L Agriculture (798-807) M Landfill Methane Reduction (808-808) N Population Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions (809-811) O Deforestation Prevention (812-813) P Reforestation (814-816) Q Geoengineering Options (817-835) R Description of Economic Estimates of the Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Emissions (836-839) S Glossary (840-846) T Conversion Tables (847-848) U Prefaces from the Individual Panel Reports (849-854) V Acknowledgments from the Individual Panel Reports (855-857) W Background Information on Panel Members and Professional Staff (858-868) Index (869-918)