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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992)
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP)

Page
869
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Page 869

Index

A

Acid rain

cloud stimulation and, 82, 457, 459, 832-833

forest threats, 425

fossil fuels and, 238

nitrous oxide precursor, 321

sulfur dioxide precursor, 238, 336, 457, 832

Adaptation, 706. See also Costs: adaptation

agriculture, 39, 45, 77-78, 502, 505-506, 509, 516-517, 561-566, 634, 635, 677, 685

animals, 37, 46, 503, 581, 676, 686

assumptions, 517-521

and biological diversity, 40, 78-79, 513, 579, 580-581, 690

to carbon dioxide concentration, 509, 551-555, 616

cities, 45, 85, 506, 635

classes of, 516-517

coastal settlements, 45, 505, 608-609, 626, 635, 636, 685-686

costs of, 34, 85, 505, 541, 680-681, 686

defined, 840

developed nations, 514

developing nations, 565-566, 632, 659, 688

difficulty of, 84-85, 657, 659

economic growth and, 507, 519, 626

ecosystems, 37, 39, 40, 46, 502, 504n, 505, 509, 525, 575, 577, 675, 685, 686

electric power generation, 41, 599, 601-602, 605-606, 654, 675

environmental consequences of, 504n, 659

forestry, 506, 569, 572, 634, 635

forests, 39, 40, 45, 505, 525-526, 571-575, 577, 634, 636, 677

government policies, 512, 538, 631-632

greenhouse gas effects of, 574

human activities, 36, 37, 44, 47, 502, 506, 527-530, 676, 685-686

human health, 41-42, 44, 45, 505, 615-620, 677

human settlements, 41, 608, 611-615

industry, 44, 45, 504, 606-607, 677, 685

investment in, 43, 503, 508, 512-514, 527-528, 530, 535, 537, 685

irrigation, 78, 537, 559, 562-563, 564-565

limitations on, 43-44, 502-503, 654

marine environments, 590-591

markets and, 34, 509, 512, 521-522

methods of, 36-37, 525-530

natural landscape, 39, 40, 45, 505, 551, 575, 578-582, 635, 677

 Page
869
Front Matter (R1-R26)
Part One: Synthesis (1-2)
1 Introduction (3-4)
2 Background (5-11)
3 The Greenhouse Gases and Their Effects (12-28)
4 Policy Framework (29-35)
5 Adaptation (36-47)
6 Mitigation (48-64)
7 International Considerations (65-67)
8 Findings and Conclusions (68-72)
9 Recommendations (73-83)
Individual Statement by a Member Of The Synthesis Panel (84-86)
Part Two: The Science Base (87-88)
10 Introduction (89-90)
11 Emission Rates and Concentrations Of Greenhouse Gases (91-99)
12 Radiative Forcing and Feedback (100-110)
13 Model Performance (111-116)
14 The Climate Record (117-134)
15 Hydrology (135-139)
16 Sea Level (140-144)
17 A Greenhouse Forcing and Temperature Rise Estimation Procedure (145-152)
18 Conclusions (153-154)
Part Three: Mitigation (155-156)
19 Introduction (157-170)
20 Framework for Evaluating Mitigation Options (171-200)
21 Residential and Commercial Energy Management (201-247)
22 Industrial Energy Management (248-285)
23 Transportation Energy Management (286-329)
24 Energy Supply Systems (330-375)
25 Nonenergy Emission Reduction (376-413)
26 Population (414-423)
27 Deforestation (424-432)
28 Geoengineering (433-464)
29 Findings and Recommendations (465-498)
Part Four: Adaptation (499-500)
30 Findings (501-507)
31 Recommendations (508-514)
32 Issues, Assumptions, and Values (515-524)
33 Methods and Tools (525-540)
34 Sesitivities, Impacts, and Adaptations (541-652)
35 Indices (653-656)
36 Final Words (657-658)
Individual Statement by a Member of the Adaptation Panel (659-660)
Appendixes (661-662)
A Questions and Answers About Greenhouse Warming (663-691)
B Thinking About Time in the Context of Global Climate Change (692-707)
C Conservation Supply Curves for Buildings (708-716)
D Conservation Supply Curves for Industrial Energy Use (717-726)
E Conservation Supply Data for Three Transportation Sectors (727-758)
F Transportation System Management (759-766)
G Nuclear Energy (767-774)
H A Solar Hydrogen System (775-778)
I Biomass (779-785)
J Cost-Effectiveness of Electrical Generation Technologies (786-791)
K Cost-Effectiveness of Chlorofluorocarbon Phaseout—United States and Worldwide (792-797)
L Agriculture (798-807)
M Landfill Methane Reduction (808-808)
N Population Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions (809-811)
O Deforestation Prevention (812-813)
P Reforestation (814-816)
Q Geoengineering Options (817-835)
R Description of Economic Estimates of the Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Emissions (836-839)
S Glossary (840-846)
T Conversion Tables (847-848)
U Prefaces from the Individual Panel Reports (849-854)
V Acknowledgments from the Individual Panel Reports (855-857)
W Background Information on Panel Members and Professional Staff (858-868)
Index (869-918)

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OCR for page 869
Page 869 Index A Acid rain cloud stimulation and, 82, 457, 459, 832-833 forest threats, 425 fossil fuels and, 238 nitrous oxide precursor, 321 sulfur dioxide precursor, 238, 336, 457, 832 Adaptation, 706. See also Costs: adaptation agriculture, 39, 45, 77-78, 502, 505-506, 509, 516-517, 561-566, 634, 635, 677, 685 animals, 37, 46, 503, 581, 676, 686 assumptions, 517-521 and biological diversity, 40, 78-79, 513, 579, 580-581, 690 to carbon dioxide concentration, 509, 551-555, 616 cities, 45, 85, 506, 635 classes of, 516-517 coastal settlements, 45, 505, 608-609, 626, 635, 636, 685-686 costs of, 34, 85, 505, 541, 680-681, 686 defined, 840 developed nations, 514 developing nations, 565-566, 632, 659, 688 difficulty of, 84-85, 657, 659 economic growth and, 507, 519, 626 ecosystems, 37, 39, 40, 46, 502, 504n, 505, 509, 525, 575, 577, 675, 685, 686 electric power generation, 41, 599, 601-602, 605-606, 654, 675 environmental consequences of, 504n, 659 forestry, 506, 569, 572, 634, 635 forests, 39, 40, 45, 505, 525-526, 571-575, 577, 634, 636, 677 government policies, 512, 538, 631-632 greenhouse gas effects of, 574 human activities, 36, 37, 44, 47, 502, 506, 527-530, 676, 685-686 human health, 41-42, 44, 45, 505, 615-620, 677 human settlements, 41, 608, 611-615 industry, 44, 45, 504, 606-607, 677, 685 investment in, 43, 503, 508, 512-514, 527-528, 530, 535, 537, 685 irrigation, 78, 537, 559, 562-563, 564-565 limitations on, 43-44, 502-503, 654 marine environments, 590-591 markets and, 34, 509, 512, 521-522 methods of, 36-37, 525-530 natural landscape, 39, 40, 45, 505, 551, 575, 578-582, 635, 677

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Page 870 ocean current changes, 47, 507, 521, 589, 676, 686 plants, 37, 46, 503, 564, 577, 581, 676, 686 policy options, 30, 32, 34-35, 43-44, 69-70, 77-79, 550, 574, 674, 690 population migration, 628, 631-632 recommendations, 47, 77-79, 508-514, 690 research, 77-78, 80-81, 508-509, 690 sea level change, 537, 590-591, 611-613, 635 sensitivities, 44-47, 504-507, 541, 653, 675-676, 677 technology and, 37-38, 509, 514, 516, 530-534 temperature increases, 47, 503, 613-614, 653, 655 tourism and recreation, 45, 46, 505, 506, 607-608, 677, 686 uncertainty in, 43, 534-537, 541, 561 water resources, 40-41, 45, 78, 505, 506, 529, 537, 599, 634-635, 636, 677, 690 weather forecasting and, 80, 510, 534, 691 Aerosols chlorofluorocarbon substitution, 392, 393, 792, 793, 794 cloud stimulation, 435-436 defined, 840 halocarbon propellants, 95 hydrocarbon propellants, 392, 393, 793 sulfate, 22, 59, 121, 451, 472 Africa agriculture, 631, 798, 799 deforestation, 11 fertility rates, 417 population growth, 415 refugee migration, 622, 626, 628 water resources, 592 work animals, 395, 804 Agriculture. See also Livestock;Rice production adaptability to climate change, 39, 45, 502, 505-506, 509, 516-517, 561-566, 634, 635, 677, 685 adaptation costs, 505, 506, 543, 550, 675, 678, 686 adaptation policies, 77-78, 509 biomass fuel sources, 348, 393, 805 capital stock replacement, 38, 531 carbon dioxide fertilization, 38-39, 78, 558, 566 carbon sequestration (sinks), 404, 798, 799 cloud seeding, 827 deforestation, 424 energy consumption, 281, 393, 805 greenhouse gas emission, 5, 376, 393-394, 799-800 greenhouse gas emission reduction, 58, 394, 395-398, 402-403, 471, 799, 800 impacts of climate change on, 44-45, 505, 522, 550, 556-562, 599-601, 602, 603, 604, 635 land, reforestation of, 441, 700 land use, 393, 404, 798-799 mechanization, 804-805 methane emission, 376, 393, 394-395, 799-800, 805 methane emission reduction, 394, 395-401, 404, 799, 800-805 mitigation costs, 60, 400, 401, 403-404, 484, 489, 684, 802-803, 806 mitigation intervention effects, 497 mitigation policy options, 58, 157, 396-397, 399-401, 403-405, 471, 480, 800-806 nitrous oxide emission, 8, 162, 376, 393, 398, 682 nitrous oxide emission reduction, 402-404, 805, 806 precipitation changes and, 34, 39, 44-45, 557, 654 radiative forcing, 161 research, 39, 77-78, 398-399, 404, 509, 557, 690, 799 soil moisture in, 136 technological improvement, 405, 509, 799 temperature changes and, 39, 558, 559, 561 water resources and, 503, 528, 559, 560, 562-563, 602, 654 Agung, Mount, volcanic eruption, 451 Air conditioning adaptation technology, 37, 531

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Page 871 automobiles, 385-386, 471, 479, 793, 795 residential and commercial buildings, 210-211, 216, 711 Aircraft cost of efficiency improvement, 296, 298 energy consumption, 728 exhaust particulates, geoengineering, 59, 61, 453-454, 472 fuel efficiency, 56, 287, 293, 469, 478, 743 new product development, 301, 531 Air pollution energy conservation reductions, 169, 185n, 238, 320, 321 regulatory reduction, 70, 321, 614 temperature change and, 610, 614 threat to forests, 425 Albedo atmospheric dust, 449, 450, 453, 460 cloud feedback, 106, 108, 842 cloud geoengineering, 450, 454-455, 460, 461n.4, 824, 825, 827, 828, 831 defined, 840, 845 mitigation intervention, 157-158, 447 snow-ice feedback, 106, 113, 135 vegetation, 137 white surfaces, 447 Algae, 446, 457, 588, 832 Alternative energy supplies, 75, 76, 368-369 water heating systems, 217 Alternative transportation fuels. See Transportation energy management Aluminum, 531 production, energy conservation in, 280, 718, 719, 722 Amazon basin, 135-136, 430, 799 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), 206, 218, 219 Ammonium sulfate, 833 Animals. See also Livestock adaptation to climate change, 37, 46, 503, 581, 676, 686 biological diversity, 513 carbon dioxide enrichment and, 38-39, 576 carbon sequestration, 798 impacts of climate change on, 37, 39-40, 47, 576, 578, 584, 586, 587, 589 work animals, 395, 398, 799-800, 801, 804-805 Antarctica oceanic iron fertilization, 445, 446, 459 ocean mixing, 96-97, 446 ocean nutrients, 443 precipitation, 154 stratospheric ozone, 125, 377, 450, 849 stratospheric temperature, 125 West Antarctic Ice Sheet, 25, 26, 141, 636n.4, 680 Appliances chlorofluorocarbon substitutes, 384-385, 471, 479 conservation supply curves, 714-715 efficiency improvements, 55, 212, 216, 217, 219, 384-385, 468, 476 energy consumption, 201, 208, 209, 215-216, 218-219, 710 regulatory standards, 209n, 219, 227, 233, 240 Archimedes principle, 819, 821 Arctic Ocean, 680 oil reserves, 604-605 Asia deforestation, 11 energy consumption, 236 land use, 798 population growth, 415, 417 precipitation, 136 refugee migration, 622 rice production, 404, 801 work animals, 395, 804 Assumptions, 21, 517-521 Atlantic Ocean, 456, 680, 831 Atmosphere. See also Atmospheric concentration; Stratosphere; Troposphere carbon dioxide removal, 351, 681, 683 chemical reactions in, 12, 59, 81, 94, 146, 158, 161, 332, 450 chemistry, dust/aerosol geoengineering and, 435-436, 443, 450 chlorofluorocarbon photodissociation, 96

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Page 872 chlorofluorocarbon removal with lasers, 59, 61, 433, 457-458, 472, 482 defined, 840 energy absorption and reflection, 13, 14-17, 100-101, 102-103, 664 forests and, 66, 437 general circulation models, 20, 111 greenhouse effect, normal, 3, 91, 101 greenhouse gas accumulation, climate effects, 19, 20-21, 22, 26-27, 158, 172, 665, 666 greenhouse gas cycling, 93, 700 greenhouse gas dispersal, 5, 12 greenhouse gas removal, 30, 157-158 heat transfer, 16-17, 28, 154, 664-665 human greenhouse gas emission to, 5-6, 7-9, 27, 89, 91-92, 97n.2, 153, 158-160, 162, 171 nitrous oxide removal, 97 ocean-atmospheric system, 93, 605, 636n.5, 846 temperature cloud feedback, 842-843 data records, 125 greenhouse warming, 4, 673 ocean heat transfer, 143 radiant energy transfer, 16, 17, 19, 664 and shoreline ecosystems, 587 and water vapor concentration, 103-104, 158 water vapor feedback, 103-106, 109, 158, 669, 673 Atmospheric circulation, 47, 657 Atmospheric concentration carbon dioxide, 3, 13, 14, 92, 146, 153, 160, 667 adaptation to, 509, 551-555, 616 anthropogenic contribution to, 3, 27, 89, 92, 93, 94, 97n.2, 146, 330 climate models of, 3-4, 20, 29, 111-113, 124, 125, 669 doubling scenario, 3-4, 20, 37, 102-103, 105, 111-112, 148, 153-154, 330-332, 669 greenhouse warming contribution of, 3, 27, 89, 93, 663 ice core record, 91, 93, 97n.1, 443 ocean fertilization and, 444, 446 past increases, 3, 12, 27, 91, 93, 94, 153, 443, 663-665 chlorofluorocarbons, 3, 13, 27, 92, 95, 146, 153, 160, 381, 458, 663, 665, 667 greenhouse gases, 3, 12, 13, 19, 20-21, 22, 92, 146, 148, 663, 671 halocarbons, 95, 381 hydroxyl radical, 94-95 methane, 3, 12, 13, 27, 92, 94-95, 146, 153, 160, 381, 663, 665, 667 nitrous oxide, 13, 92, 96, 97, 146, 160, 161, 381, 667 sulfur dioxide, 457 trace gases, 666 Atmospheric fluidized-bed combustion (AFBC), 337 Atmospheric lifetime, 666, 672 carbon dioxide, 12, 13, 92, 93, 146, 160, 381, 382, 666, 667 carbon tetrachloride, 146, 381 chlorofluorocarbons, 13, 92, 146, 151, 160, 381, 666, 667 halocarbons, 96, 146, 381, 392-393 methane, 13, 92, 94, 146, 160, 381, 666, 667 methyl chloroform, 146, 381 nitrous oxide, 13, 92, 97, 146, 160, 381, 667 Atmospheric moisture, 141 Atmospheric pressure, 140 Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), 131 Automobile industry, 309, 385, 718 Autombiles. See also Transportation energy management air conditioning, 385-386, 471, 479, 793, 795 air pollution, 321, 614 carbon dioxide emissions, 312, 334 conservation supply curves, 751 consumer preference for, 314, 322, 473, 731 energy consumption, 286, 288, 310-311, 313, 728 fuel economy index, 287, 288, 727, 754 fuel economy technology, 33, 732, 733-735, 739-741

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Page 873 infrastructure support, 314, 317n, 318, 367 invention of, 530-531 lifetime and turnover, 33-34, 301 mass transit substitution, 49, 173, 312, 314, 317n, 322, 473, 764 policy options, 75, 301-304, 315-317 vehicle miles traveled, 310, 312, 316 Auto/Oil Reformulated Gasoline Program, 307 Azolla fern, 404 B "Backstop" technology, 51, 52, 180, 192 Balloons stratospheric dust delivery, 452, 459, 460, 817, 819-823 sunlight reflection screen, 59, 454, 472, 482, 486, 817, 823-824 Bangladesh, 417, 609, 627, 628, 801 Barrier islands, 584, 587, 612 Benzene, 321 Biogas, 805 Biological diversity adaptation to climate change and, 40, 78-79, 513, 579, 580-581, 690 deforestation and, 76, 430, 442 impacts of climate change on, 40, 80-81, 576-577, 590, 591 international cooperation, 67 markets and investment, 35, 686 research needs, 80-81, 370, 442 Biomass alternative fuels from, 57, 306, 307, 308, 323, 364, 367, 370, 371, 393, 446, 470, 478 barriers to implementation, 323, 361, 364, 367 burning, greenhouse gas emission, 96, 305, 395, 700, 805 burning, reduction of, 394, 398, 401, 805 carbon dioxide enrichment and production of, 80, 81, 555, 691 carbon storage, 666, 700 cost-effectiveness of carbon dioxide reduction, 355-356, 486 costs of implementation, 348, 349, 444-445, 459, 482, 779-783 defined, 841 electric power generation, 57, 333, 349, 356, 361, 470, 479, 602, 787, 788, 789 energy supply share, 330, 333, 334, 345, 348-349, 372, 775, 779-783 ethanol fuel produced from, 305, 306, 307, 308, 323, 345 ether gasoline additive, 307 fossil-fuel plant replacement, 57, 259, 470 industrial energy supply, 8, 162, 259, 682 methane emission, 94, 395, 805 methanol fuel produced from, 57, 307, 323, 345, 470, 478 nitrous oxide emission, 8, 162, 682 oceans, growth stimulation in, 59, 61, 433, 442-446, 459, 472, 482, 486 research and development needs, 370, 371 technological improvements, 372, 799 Biosphere, 93 carbon sequestration, 80, 537, 672 defined, 841 hydrologic processes, 135, 136-137 Biotechnology, 278, 349, 565 Birds, 40, 585 Black abalone, 589 Black sea urchin, 589 Blooms, 653 Boiling water reactor (BWR), 770 Bombay Efficiency Lighting Large-scale Experiment, 241-242n.10 Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), 229-230 Botanical gardens, 580 Bougainvillaea, 580 Brazil agriculture, 798, 799 alternative transportation fuels, 304 economic development, 417, 418 electricity production, 236 orange juice industry, 556 Building codes, 75, 233, 240, 472 Buildings, residential and commercial, 166 barriers to efficiency implementation, 225-226

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Page 874 building shell efficiency, 216, 219-220, 698-699 capital stock turnover, 37, 532 coastal, climate change impacts, 550 commercial cooking, 55, 212, 217, 468, 476, 714-715 commercial cooling, 55, 212, 215, 217, 468, 476, 714-715 commercial and industrial space heating, 55, 206, 212, 215, 468, 476, 714-715 commercial lighting, 55, 212, 215, 216-217, 468, 476, 714-715 commercial refrigeration, 55, 212, 468, 476, 714-715 commercial ventilation, 55, 212, 215, 468, 476, 714-715 commercial water heating, 55, 212, 215, 217, 468, 476, 714-715 conservation supply curves, 207-208, 210-211, 708-709, 711, 714-715 cost of conserved energy, 207, 211, 212, 213, 215, 221, 708-709, 711, 712 cost-effectiveness of conservation, 205, 208, 213, 483, 683, 710 costs of implementation, 60, 212, 213-214, 220-221, 240, 476, 489, 684, 713 electricity conservation potential, 75, 204-213, 224, 240 electricity consumption, 201-203, 205, 206, 215-216, 219, 220, 225, 237 electricity efficiency measures, 55, 214-216, 468, 476, 714-715 electricity prices, 208, 209-210, 213, 226, 709 energy consumption, 201, 202-203, 205, 225, 261 fuel switching, 56, 221-222, 223, 224, 241n.9, 469, 476 greenhouse gas reduction potential, 60, 203, 213, 213-214, 220-221, 223-224, 239-240, 483, 489, 713 mitigation policy options, 53-54, 55-56, 227-237, 239-240, 468-469, 476, 483, 684 national demonstration projects, 229-233 new buildings, 222-223 nongreenhouse benefits and costs, 237-238 oil and gas efficiency, 56, 220-221, 224, 240, 469, 476 research and development needs, 238-239 residential appliances, 55, 209, 212, 215, 218-219, 233, 468, 476, 710, 714-715 residential lighting, 55, 212, 215, 216-217, 468, 476, 714-715 residential space heating, 55, 206, 212, 215, 468, 476, 714-715 residential water heating, 55, 212, 215, 217, 468, 476, 714-715 solar heating, 364, 367 white surfaces, 55, 212, 216, 241n.5, 468, 476, 714-715 C Calcium carbonate, 278 California agriculture, 37, 531, 594, 803 alternative transportation fuels, 304 climate change and electric demand, 601 co-generation, 264 electric energy conservation, 220, 222, 232-233, 273 geothermal energy, 343 ocean temperatures, 589 population migration, 623 solar energy, 344 transportation management, 311, 322, 324 utility regulation, 213 water resources, 400, 529, 545, 594, 803 California Energy Commission (CEC), 264, 266, 306 Canada agriculture, 564, 654 alternative transportation fuels, 304 dairy production, 803, 804 nuclear power, 768 oil reserves, 604-605 transportation management, 316 Canadian Climate Centre (CCC), 112 Canola production, 564

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Page 875 Capital recovery factors (CRF), 720, 786 Capital recovery rate (CRR), 708 Capital stock replacement, 37-38, 271, 531-532 Carbon carbon dioxide equivalent, 681 deforestation release of, 424, 425 fossil-fuel burning reaction, 332 product of advanced coal burning, 353 volatile organic carbon, 386 Carbon content fossil fuels, 330, 331, 332 gasoline, 307 soil and vegetation, 812 Carbon cycle, 93, 437, 666, 841 Carbon dioxide (CO2). See also Carbon dioxide enrichment airborne fraction, 840 atmospheric concentration, 3, 13, 14, 92, 146, 153, 160, 667 adaptation to, 509, 551-555, 616 anthropogenic contribution to, 3, 27, 89, 92, 93, 94, 97n.2, 146, 330 climate models of, 3-4, 20, 29, 111-113, 124, 125, 669 doubling scenario, 3-4, 20, 37, 102-103, 105, 111-112, 148, 153-154, 330-332, 669 greenhouse warming contribution of, 3, 27, 89, 93, 663 ice core record, 91, 93, 97n.1, 443 ocean fertilization and, 444, 446 past increases, 3, 12, 27, 91, 93, 94, 153, 443, 663-665 atmospheric lifetime, 12, 13, 92, 93, 146, 160, 381, 382, 666, 667 carbon equivalent of, 681 conservation supply curves, 714-715 costs of mitigation, 171, 475 buildings sector, 60, 212, 213-214, 220-221, 240, 476, 489, 684, 713 carbon taxes and, 175, 176, 178, 179, 180, 184, 790-791, 836 cloud stimulation, 455-456, 457, 482, 486, 830, 831, 833 cost modeling, 174-180, 181, 836, 837, 838 deforestation prevention, 428, 813 electric power generation, 354 , 355, 477, 479, 711, 789, 790-791 industrial co-generation, 265-266, 722-723 industrial energy conservation, 258, 259, 263-264, 476-477, 478, 718, 720, 721-722, 724, 725 "negative cost," 191 nonenergy sources, 477, 479 ocean biomass stimulation, 445, 482 parking management, 759 population control, 420 reforestation, 440, 441, 480, 814, 815 sunlight screening, 447, 448, 452, 453, 454, 461n.7, 482, 486, 821, 824 transportation sector, 295, 317, 319, 324, 477, 478, 737, 738, 743, 750, 751 emission sources agriculture, 398, 402, 404, 801 alternative transportation fuels, 307, 308 anthropogenic, 3, 8, 27, 89, 92, 93, 94, 146, 147, 158-160, 162, 668, 670, 682 automobiles, 312, 334 cement manufacturing, 165, 256 chlorofluorocarbon substitutes, 392 coal-fired plants, 158-160, 331, 332, 335, 338, 355 deforestation, 8, 11, 76, 162, 424, 428, 682, 843 ecosystems, 39 electric power plants, 256, 334, 351, 711, 789 energy use, 8, 158-160, 162, 180, 682 fossil fuels, 91-92, 93, 165, 178, 179, 256, 330-332, 341, 342, 351, 404 gasoline, 307, 332, 334, 342, 731-732 landfill gas, 405, 406, 407 land use changes, 404 national levels, 9-10

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Page 876 natural gas, 158-160, 308, 330-332, 335, 338-339 natural gas power plants, 355, 789 oceans, 80, 846 oil burning, 158-160, 331, 332 population growth, 418, 419, 809-811 transportation sector, 286, 287, 306, 307, 323, 334, 731-732, 760 United States, 9-11, 158-160, 164, 165, 168, 334, 688 wood burning, 5, 11 emissions reductions buildings sector efficiency, 203, 212, 213-214, 223-224, 239-240, 261-264, 282, 354, 487, 711, 721-722 coal-fired plants, 338, 353, 355-356, 602 co-generation, 264-266, 282, 346, 476, 483, 722-723 cost-effectiveness of, 33, 49, 51, 266, 356, 467, 483, 484, 486 deforestation prevention, 428, 812-813 electric power plant collection, 58, 76, 351-353, 372, 471 electric power plant efficiency, 213-214, 221, 239-240, 354, 355-357, 711 energy efficiency, 60, 192-193, 259 energy supply systems, 356-357 fossil fuels, 76, 220-221, 240, 257-258, 351, 370, 442-443 fuel switching, 221, 256, 257-258 geothermal energy, 343 industrial energy conservation, 256, 257-258, 259, 261-266, 269, 270, 271, 279, 282-283, 717 integrated energy systems, 346, 347 nuclear power generation, 341 parking management, 760, 761 renewable energy sources, 342 solar energy, 344 transportation fuel efficiency, 298, 312, 324 United States, 177, 221, 223-224, 239-240, 356-357 feedback mechanisms, 104, 154 global warming potential, 163-164, 167, 381-383 greenhouse warming contribution, 150, 151, 153-154, 376, 378, 380 in methane generation, 94 mitigation policies benefits and costs, 171, 473 cloud stimulation, 459, 832 cost-effectiveness of, 33, 49, 51, 266, 356, 467, 483, 484, 486 effects on developing nations, 635 energy supply systems, 368, 370 industrial sector, 272, 273, 275, 276, 277 ocean biomass stimulation, 54, 59, 61, 82, 433, 443-446, 459, 472, 481, 482, 486, 683 ocean disposal, 58, 345, 351, 353, 471 reforestation, 77, 437, 439-441, 442, 459, 487-490, 814-815 renewable energy sources, 342 sunlight screening, 450, 459, 824 ocean absorption of, natural, 12, 93, 94, 135, 442-443, 672 plant and tree uptake, 5, 40, 76, 77, 154, 437, 666 precipitation interactions, 137, 555 radiative forcing, 15, 102-103, 105, 148, 150, 668, 670, 681-683 commitment to future warming, 18, 149, 150, 163-164, 670 contribution to warming, 12-13, 158, 167, 666-667 timing of mitigation and, 193, 194 unaccounted-for emissions, 12, 93-94, 666 Carbon dioxide enrichment (fertilization) and agricultural production, 38-39, 78, 558, 560-561, 566 and animals, 38-39, 576 and biomass production, 80, 81, 555, 691 climate model simulations, 558, 559, 560 and corn and wheat production, 551, 552, 553, 558, 559, 562

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Page 877 defined, 841 and evaporation, 552, 553, 555 forest adaptation to, 568, 569, 570 and photosynthesis, 39, 551-554, 555, 566, 576, 845 and plant and tree growth, 38-39, 137, 154, 551-554, 555, 569, 576, 636n.1, 841 research needs, 80-81, 691 Carbon monoxide (CO), 158, 321, 576 Carbon sinks, 93, 666, 672 agriculture, 404, 798-799 animals, 798 biosphere, 80, 537, 672 defined, 841-842 oceans, 433, 437, 443, 444, 446, 459, 666, 672, 695 ocean temperature and, 589-590 soils, 666, 798, 845-846 trees and vegetation, 77, 429, 433, 437, 439-441, 442, 537, 574-575, 666, 698, 814, 815 wetlands, 554 Carbon tax carbon dioxide emission reduction, 176, 194 cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction, 175, 176, 178, 179, 180, 184, 790-791, 836 and nuclear energy, 355 policy options, 180, 194, 195, 272, 310, 367, 368 transportation fuels, 303, 310 Carbon tetrachloride (CC14) anthropogenic emissions, 146, 147, 386-387 atmospheric concentration, 95, 146, 386 global warming potential, 381, 386 London Protocol phaseout, 74, 96, 377, 386 ozone depletion, 386 radiative forcing, 148, 150, 163 Caribbean Sea, 588, 589, 628 Cement manufacturing, 160, 165, 178, 256 Chemical industry, 389 co-generation, 264 energy consumption, 248, 249 energy use reduction, 266, 269, 280 Chemical pollution, 44, 505, 509 Chemical reactions, atmospheric, 12, 59, 81, 94, 146, 158, 161, 332, 450 Chernobyl nuclear accident, 236 Chichon, E1, volcanic eruption, 451 China chlorofluorocarbon use, 377, 390 climate change, economic effects, 604 coal-fired generating, 236, 241-242n.10, 335, 336 coal reserves, 65, 332 greenhouse gas emissions, 9, 65 land temperatures, 120, 124 refugee migration, 627 rice production, 395, 801 sea levels, 140 Chlorine atmospheric reduction, 391, 450 ozone depletion, 377, 380, 393 stratospheric dust and, 450, 451, 460 Chlorocarbons (CC), 15, 18, 149, 376, 377, 381 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC). See also Halocarbons anthropogenic emissions, 3, 8, 146, 147, 149, 159, 162, 377-378, 665, 681, 682 atmospheric chemistry effects, 435, 450, 460 atmospheric concentration, 3, 13, 27, 92, 95, 146, 153, 160, 381, 458, 663, 667 atmospheric lifetime, 13, 92, 146, 151, 160, 381, 666, 667 atmospheric photodissociation, 96 atmospheric rate of increase, 13, 27, 92, 95, 153, 160, 667 atmospheric removal with lasers, 59, 61, 457-458, 472, 482 barriers to emission reduction, 389-390 carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions, 8, 387, 682 defined, 842 Clean Air Act limits, 70, 377, 378 cost-effectiveness of emission reduction, 53, 54, 173, 496, 792-796 cost of use reduction, 60, 173, 175, 387, 388, 389, 684, 792-796, 838

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Page 878 effects of emission reductions, 151, 383, 690 global warming potential, 167, 381, 382, 383 greenhouse warming impact, 151, 158, 159, 378, 380, 487 industrial uses, 95, 378, 379, 383, 385-386 London Protocol phaseout, 74, 96, 150, 158, 377, 390-391 mitigation policy options, 70, 73, 390-391, 392, 690, 792-796 Montreal Protocol limits, 15, 74, 96, 150, 151, 376, 377, 393 ozone depletion, 74, 151, 376-377, 381, 383, 392, 475, 842 production of, 386 radiative energy absorption, 12-13, 666-667 radiative forcing, 15, 18, 74, 148, 149, 158, 161, 163, 668, 670 recommendations, 73, 74 substitutes, 58, 150, 173, 380, 383, 384-386, 392-393, 792, 793, 794-795 U.S. emissions, 168, 376 U.S. regulations, 182, 383-384, 390, 496 Cities adaptation to climate change, 45, 85, 506, 635 heat islands, 55, 216, 241n.5, 844 temperature measurements, 119 Clean Air Act (1990) air pollutant regulations, 321 greenhouse gas emission reduction, 53, 70, 408 halocarbon regulations, 377, 378, 392 sulfur dioxide emission allowances, 272, 369 Clean Coal Technology Program, 336-337 Cleaning solvents, 95, 386, 387, 792, 793, 794 Climate, 22-25, 666. See also Climate change adaptation to, 30, 38, 515-516 agricultural sensitivity to, 556 assessment of impacts, 508 cloud effects, 106-107, 108-109 data collection and monitoring, 43, 125, 129-132, 510 defined, 515, 842 ecosystem effects, 136-137 feedback mechanisms, 100, 103 in general circulation models, 19-22 geoengineering effects on, 81-82, 435, 436 greenhouse gas effects, 17, 19, 26-27 human health effects, 617 human understanding of, 81, 100, 436 natural variability, 19, 124, 513, 515 oceans and, 442-443 radiative forcing, 102-103, 105 research needs, 71, 80 risks, 512 and sea level change, 25, 141 solar radiation effects, 14-17 stabilization, 466, 467 volcanic eruptions and, 435 water resource sensitivity to, 592, 594 Climate change, 515. See also Adaptation;Greenhouse warming; Mitigation assumptions, 517-518 cataclysmic, 46-47, 507 costs of, 188, 189, 676-677 data collection and monitoring, 79-80, 129, 131, 504, 510 defined, 842 detection, and geoengineering implementation, 481 economic activity and, 188 extremes, 635 facets of, 5, 21-22, 556 feedback mechanisms, 103, 154 general circulation models, 3-4, 19-20, 105, 111, 115 greenhouse gas causation, 29, 89, 153-154, 696 greenhouse gas proxy value, 693-695 human activity and, 171-172 human response limitations, 502-503 impacts, 502, 516, 517-518, 541, 657 agricultural pests, 561, 570 agriculture, 39, 530, 556-559, 603, 604 biological diversity, 79, 513, 557, 577, 581 categories of, 504-507, 675-676

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Page 879 developing nations, 635, 688-689 economic, 84, 522, 600, 603, 604-605 ecosystems, 37, 39-40, 46, 137, 576 electric power generation, 601-602 forests, 39, 568-570 human health, 41-42, 616, 618-620 human settlements, 41, 608-609, 614 hydrologic cycle, 135-136, 137, 138 industry, 41, 603, 604 ocean-atmospheric system, 605 ocean currents, 653, 655 political stability, 629, 630-631, 633 population migration, 42, 620-621, 623, 624-625, 626, 627 projection of, 675, 676 research on, 71 sea level, 141, 653, 655 seasonal events, 653, 655 temperature extremes, 653, 655 tourism and recreation, 41, 607-608 water resources, 592, 594, 595, 599, 601-602, 605, 653, 654 indices of, 80, 503, 653-656 and methane emission, 95 precipitation change in, 520-521 radiative forcing and, 145, 152 research spending, 70-71 risk assessment, 195-197 temperature change in, 21, 520 time frame, 33, 187, 194 uncertainties, 189, 501-502, 529-530, 534, 541, 672-673, 690 Climate models, 80, 105, 111-115, 117, 124, 125. See also General circulation models Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) acid rain effects, 82, 459, 832 costs of, 61, 457, 482, 486, 833 geoengineered cloud stimulation, 446, 454-455, 460, 825, 827-829, 831 Clouds albedo, 108, 450, 455, 824, 827, 828, 842 climate model treatments, 21, 80, 106, 107, 108-109, 111, 112, 113, 824-825, 828 defined, 842 feedback mechanisms (radiative forcing), 106-109, 111, 113, 669, 672, 842-843 geoengineered stimulation of, 59, 61, 82, 447, 454-457, 459, 460, 472, 482, 486, 817, 824-833 geoengineering, acid rain side effect, 82, 457, 459, 832-833 physics and chemistry, 71, 459 radiation absorption and reflection, 101, 107, 669, 826, 843 temperature effects, 17, 124-125, 446, 669, 672, 824-827 water vapor content, 104, 107-108, 669 Coal. See also Coal-fired power plants carbon content, 331, 332 in carbon dioxide collection, 351 Chinese consumption, 65, 236, 241-242n.10 consumption reduction, 169, 203, 224, 357, 369, 537 cost of emission reduction, 356, 493 energy supply share, 330, 333, 334, 335, 371, 788 ethanol production uses, 342 exporting nations, 630 health effects, 32-33 industrial consumption, 249 methane emissions, 332, 369 methanol derived from, 305, 306, 307 nitrous oxide emissions, 8, 162, 682 prices, 258, 347 resource reserves, 65, 331, 332, 336 social costs, 347, 369 steel industry use, 345 synthetic fuels from, 775 U.S. consumption, 158-160, 334, 335 Coal-fired power plants acid rain contribution, 32-33, 336 advanced coal technology, 57, 75, 336-338, 353, 371, 470, 479, 788 buildings sector use, 201, 220, 224 carbon dioxide emission, 158-160, 331, 332, 335, 338, 355

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Page 908 cost-effectiveness of, 70, 79 deforestation, 430-431 energy supply systems, 369-371, 372 federal spending, 70, 239 geoengineering, 81, 82, 460, 481 government sponsorship, 538 hydrology, 138 impacts of global warming, 70-71, 81, 691 industrial energy efficiency, 272, 277-278, 279, 280-281, 282-283 international cooperation, 83 landfill methane reduction, 411 mitigation policy options, 169-170, 702, 703, 707 population growth, 421 reforestation, 442 Reservoirs, 529, 598 Residential energy management. See Buildings, residential and commercial Revenue-neutral incentives, 196, 227, 234, 240 Rhode Island, 228, 229, 231 Rice production adaptation to climate change, 528, 579 cost of methane mitigation, 400, 480, 800, 802-803 methane emission, 5, 8, 94, 95, 162, 393, 394-395, 682, 799-800 methane emission reduction, 395, 396, 398, 399, 400, 404, 471, 801-803 Ridesharing programs, 322 Risk perception, 35 Rivers, 596, 597 Rocket-launched dust, 452, 459 Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, 618 Ruminant animals. See Livestock Runoff. See Water runoff S Sacramento River, 544, 597, 679 Sahel region, 128, 625, 628 Satellite data collection, 71, 104, 105, 106, 125, 531, 669 Scrubbers, sulfur dioxide, 336, 338, 347 Sea level adaptation policy options, 537, 590-591, 611-613, 635 agricultural impacts, 602 coastal habitat impacts, 584, 585, 586, 587, 590-591 coastal settlement adaptation, 506, 590-591, 611-613, 614, 685-686 coastal settlement impacts, 602, 609, 610, 626-627 costs of adaptation options, 43, 188, 506, 535, 606, 611-612, 614 data record, 25, 140-142, 583 glacial melting rise, 25, 141, 583, 680 groundwater effects, 609, 610, 613 impacts of climate change on, 25-26, 141, 550, 583, 672 index of climate change, 43, 118, 503, 653, 655 industrial impacts, 606, 607 mitigation options and, 497 population migration effects, 627, 628, 630 potential rise from global warming, 26, 28, 142-143, 154, 519, 583, 680 relative, 25, 140 shoreline impacts, 585-586, 609, 611 thermal expansion rise, 25-26, 141, 142, 143, 583 wetlands impacts, 40, 585, 591 Seasonal events, 653, 655 Seed banks, 579-580 Shoreline, 591, 635 ecosystems, 584, 586-587, 589 erosion, 585-586, 609, 611 Short Rotation Woody Crops Program, 779-784 Silicon cells, 775-776 Silver iodide (AgI), 829-830 Sinks, 672, 695. See also Carbon sinks methane, 94, 672 Ski industry, 608 Smog, 238, 241n.5, 307, 321, 392, 845 Snow-ice feedback, 106, 108, 113 Social costs coal burning, 32-33 energy production, 74, 173, 347, 372 full social cost pricing, 32-33, 74, 844 market neglect of, 173 in mitigation option evaluation, 182-183, 185n, 197, 347

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Page 909 transportation fuel use, 33, 312, 315, 321, 324 Soil moisture, 21-22 agricultural effects, 557, 569 climate change effects, 592 in climate models, 80, 136, 137, 138 in climate system, 135, 136, 137 index of climate change, 653, 654 and methane emission, 95 regional changes, 114, 115 Soils carbon sink, 76, 666, 798, 799, 812, 845-846 climate change effects, 557 deforestation and, 76, 812 methane sink, 94 nitrogen fixing, 40 nitrous oxide emission, 96, 97 Solar energy, 342. See also Solar photovoltaics buildings sector technologies, 220, 364, 367 cost-effectiveness, 475, 789-790, 791 hydrogen production, 345, 349-350, 775-777 storage, 348 thermal electricity, 57, 344, 362, 371, 470, 479, 788 thermal-gas hybrid, 344, 356, 789, 790 Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI), 220, 342, 343 Solar photovoltaics barriers to implementation, 169, 363 carbon dioxide reduction potential, 344, 479 cost-effectiveness, 356, 790, 791 cost of electricity, 169, 344, 354, 372, 776, 777, 788 energy storage, 344, 372 energy supply potential, 57, 169, 372, 470, 775-776 hydrogen generation, 349-350, 775, 776, 777 research and development needs, 370, 371 technology improvements, 343-344 Solar radiation agricultural effects, 556 albedo reflection, 840, 845 atmospheric absorption and reflection, 14-17, 91, 100, 101, 664-665 cloud absorption and reflection, 101, 107, 669, 826, 843 cloud albedo, 108, 450, 455, 824, 827, 828, 842 earth absorption, 16, 100-101, 106, 664 as energy source, 775, 776 geoengineered blocking, 30, 82, 157, 433, 447-457, 459, 472, 674 geoengineering, costs of, 447, 448, 449, 452, 453, 454, 455, 456, 482, 486 greenhouse gas absorption, 3, 12-14, 17 urban absorption, 216 variations in, 665, 672 water vapor absorption, 104 white surfaces reflection, 216, 241n.5, 447 winter reduction, 241n.5 Solid waste, 160-161 Solvents, 95, 386, 387, 792, 793, 794 Sorghum, 560-561, 563, 564 Southeastern U.S., 559, 560, 601, 779 Southern California Edison Company, 222, 337, 339, 776 Southern corn leaf blight, 557 Southern hemisphere, 22, 121, 125, 128 South Platte River, 598 Southwestern U.S., 350, 654, 776, 777 Soviet Union capital stock turnover, 531, 532 coal reserves, 65, 332, 336 industrial energy consumption, 250 land surface temperatures, 120, 124, 126 nuclear reactor technology, 769 oil reserves, 604-605 population growth, 415 precipitation measurements, 128, 130 Soybean production, 559, 560-561, 564 Space dust, 448. See also Stratospheric dust Space heating, 55 cost of energy conservation, 212, 476, 714-715 energy consumption, 203, 206, 219

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Page 910 energy efficiency measures, 55, 219-220, 222-223, 468 impact of climate change on, 601 Space mirrors, 59, 61, 448, 461n.9, 472, 482, 486 Space transportation, 461n.5 Species extinction, 503. See also Biological diversity Spillover benefits, 846 Spillover costs, 846 States building codes, 233 landfill regulations, 410 utility regulation, 64, 240, 273, 274, 283, 472-473, 494, 687 Steam reformer, 346 Steel industry coal consumption, 253, 256, 335 energy conservation technology, 266, 267, 280, 724 integrated energy systems, 345 Stirling gas refrigeration cycle, 385-386 Stone, clay, and glass industry, 248, 249 Storms, 520, 528, 530, 673, 678 Strategic Petroleum Reserve, 321 Stratosphere. See also Ozone halocarbon photodissociation, 96, 457 nitrous oxide decomposition, 97 radiative energy transfer, 102 temperature, greenhouse gases and, 125 Stratospheric bubbles, 59, 61, 472, 482, 486 Stratospheric dust aircraft-exhaust delivery, 59, 61, 453-454, 459, 472 balloon delivery, 59, 61, 452, 459, 460, 472, 819-823 costs of implementation, 447, 449, 452, 453-454, 459, 482, 486, 817-823 gun delivery, 59, 61, 451-452, 459, 460, 472, 817-819 ozone depletion, 82, 450, 451, 459-460 side effects, 435-436, 450-451, 459-460 sulfur dioxide emission, 435, 449 sunlight reflection mitigation, 447, 448-450, 459, 461n.8 and 10 Stratospheric soot, 59, 61, 472, 482, 486 Subsidies automobile use, 314 efficiency investment encouragement, 227, 234, 240, 276 irrigation water, 400, 803 mitigation implementation, 493-494 rice production, 400, 801-802 Sulfates, 451 cloud condensation nuclei, 59, 457, 472, 832, 833 cooling effect, 22, 121 Sulfur dioxide (SO2) acid rain production, 238, 336, 457, 832 Clean Air Act allowances, 272, 369 cloud condensation nuclei, 454, 455, 456, 457, 825, 830-832, 833 emission standards, 368 energy efficiency emission reduction, 203, 231, 238 fuel switching reduction, 349 geoengineering dust, 435, 449 power plant emission reduction, 336, 338, 349, 351 smokestack scrubbers, 336, 338, 347 Sulfuric acid (H2SO4) cloud condensation nuclei, 450-451, 455 geoengineering dust, 449, 829, 830, 833 Summer adaptation to climate, 615 crop yields, 559-560 electrical demand, 609-610, 655 land drying, 154, 654, 672 mortality rates, 534, 616-618, 619 precipitation, 128, 129, 136, 558, 654 snowpack evaporation, 138 temperature extremes, 124, 534, 558 urban heat islands, 216, 241n.5 Sunlight screening. See Geoengineering Superconducting cables, 345, 350-351 Supply, 846 Supply curves, 846. See also Conservation supply curves Surface waters, 141 Sweden, 837 climate change in, 624 fuel prices, 295, 315, 754

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Page 911 nuclear reactor technology, 768 Synthetic fuels, 775 T Taxation, 318. See also Carbon tax chlorofluorocarbon, 383-384, 390, 392 depreciation, 786 efficiency investment credits, 227, 273-279 electricity production, 709 European gasoline and automobile, 313, 315, 316 "fee-bate" efficiency incentives, 234 free-parking benefit, 314 gasoline, 303, 315, 324 gasoline "guzzler/sipper," 303-304 greenhouse-gas emission, 367, 368 industrial fossil fuel use, 272 methane-emitting agriculture, 401, 800, 802, 804 mitigation policy options, 70, 493-494 nitrogen fertilizer, 403-404, 805-806 revenue-neutral efficiency incentives, 234, 240 rice production, 802, 803 ruminant livestock, 401, 804 Technological costing, 49-50, 63, 180-181, 183, 185-186, 194, 195, 302, 490-493 Technology adaptation to climate change, 37-38, 509, 514, 516, 530-534 agricultural, 394, 405, 509, 799 aircraft efficiency, 293, 743 air pollutant reduction, regulations and, 70 alternative energy, 75, 76 "backstop" technology, 51, 52, 180, 192 barriers to implementation, 367 capital stock replacement, 37-38, 533, 606-607 carbon dioxide emission reduction, 269, 270 carbon dioxide removal, 178 coal-fired power generation, 336-337 cost-effectiveness, 295, 298, 299-300, 732, 737, 738, 755 costs of implementation, 183, 354 defined, 846 deforestation prevention, 77 and economic growth, 188 efficiency investment, 240, 299 electric efficiency, buildings sector, 205, 219, 225, 238-239, 240 electric power generation, cost-effectiveness, 786-791 electric vehicles, 323-324 energy efficiency, industrial processes, 254, 269-270, 271, 279, 280-281, 722 geoengineering, 458, 460 greenhouse gas mitigation, 66, 73, 270, 466, 702, 837 halocarbon substitutes, 392 and health improvements, 41, 44, 505 human-environment buffer, 84 integrated energy systems, 344, 347 investment, capital recovery, 708 "maximum" technology, 295, 325n.2, 755 nuclear reactor, 75, 76, 195-197, 340, 767-773 policy incentives, 75, 76, 271, 368 renewable energy sources, 367 research and development needs, 238-239, 279, 280-281, 392, 405 solar hydrogen production, 777 transportation fuel efficiency, 286, 291-293, 295, 298, 299-300, 727, 730, 732-742, 744-749, 751, 752-753, 754-755 Technology transfer, 390, 391-392, 429 Telecommunications industry, 37-38 Temperature atmosphere cloud feedback, 842-843 data records, 125 greenhouse warming, 4, 673 ocean heat transfer, 143 radiant energy transfer, 16, 17, 19, 664 and shoreline ecosystems, 587 and water vapor concentration, 103-104, 158 in climate models, 138 cloud interactions, 672 of clouds, 827 data collection, 129, 131

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Page 912 northern hemisphere, 20, 22, 23, 24, 121, 122, 832 southern hemisphere, 22, 23, 121, 125 earth-atmosphere heat transfer, 16, 17, 664 equator-to-pole differential, 26, 673 extremes, 124-125, 126, 137, 503, 653, 655 glacial effects, 117-118 global average climatic effects, 5, 520 cloud cover and, 669, 824, 826, 831 equilibrium, 18, 19, 28, 519-520, 671 greenhouse effect (natural) and, 3, 91, 101, 663 greenhouse warming (induced), projected increase, 3-4, 18, 20, 21, 27, 121, 149, 153-154, 669-671 prehistoric records, 24, 665-666 recorded increase, previous century, 4, 20-21, 22, 23, 25, 27, 117, 153, 518, 665, 669 global mean, 111, 121 greenhouse warming, projected increase, 145, 146-148, 521 greenhouse gas reduction and, 164 greenhouse warming increase adaptation to, 47, 503, 613-614, 653, 655 and air pollution, 610, 614 climate model projections, 3-4, 19-20, 21, 111-114, 124, 518, 669-671 climate sensitivity range, 145, 150-151, 152, 153-154 climatic effects, 26 and electrical demand, 609-610, 655 geoengineering and, 433, 436 and sea level rise, 118 land surface measurements, 117, 118, 119, 120, 122 ocean atmospheric interaction, 636n.5 in climate models, 115 climatic effects, 17 and cloud cover, 108 greenhouse warming effects on, 583-584 heat transfer in, 26, 28, 154 marine organism impacts, 588-590, 591 surface measurements, 117, 118, 119-120, 121, 122 thermal expansion, 25-26, 140-141, 142, 583 typhoon and hurricane formation, 673 ocean current disruption and, 680 in radiative feedback mechanisms, 103 radiative forcing, 102 sensitivities agriculture, 39, 556, 558, 559, 561, 654 animal species, 40 forests, 570, 603-604, 676 human health and mortality, 615, 616, 619 human settlements, 41, 608 industry, 607, 675 stratosphere, 125 troposphere, 125 uncertainties, 119-121 variation in, 22, 124, 128 Textile industry, 37-38, 249 Thermal expansion, 25-26, 140-141, 142, 143, 154, 583 Third World, 389-390, 429, 628 Tobacco production, 556 Tornados, 542, 678 Tourism and recreation, 567, 637n.9 adaptation to climate change, 45, 46, 505, 506, 607-608, 677, 686 impacts of climate change on, 41, 607-608 Trace gases, 22, 91, 107, 163-164, 666, 846 Tractors, 37, 398, 801, 804-805 Trade, 272, 273, 277, 320 Transportation demand management (TDM), 57, 317-319, 320, 324, 470 Transportation energy management, 167 air pollution reduction, 321 alternative fuels barriers to implementation, 309-310, 314, 323-324, 364, 367

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Page 913 carbon dioxide reduction potential, 478 cost-effectiveness of emission reduction, 309 costs of implementation, 304, 478, 484 electricity, 57, 307, 308-309, 323-324, 470, 478 ethanol, 304, 306, 307, 308, 323 greenhouse gas emissions, 304-307 greenhouse gas reductions, 286, 304-309, 312, 478, 484 hydrogen, 57, 169, 308, 323, 350, 470, 478 methanol, 57, 304, 306, 307, 323, 470, 478 policy options, 57, 310, 322-323, 324, 470 research and development needs, 322-323, 324 energy consumption, 201, 261, 286, 288-289, 310-311, 313, 320-321, 335, 728-729, 743 fuel efficiency, 286-291 aircraft, 56, 287, 293, 296, 469, 478, 743 barriers to implementation, 298-301, 324-325 carbon dioxide reduction potential, 60, 312, 323, 478, 483, 489, 737, 738, 750, 751 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE), 54, 301-303, 325n.2, 469, 755n.2 cost-effectiveness of emission reduction, 287, 295, 298, 299-300, 483, 727-755 costs of implementation, 60, 293-298, 477, 478, 489 heavy trucks, 56, 287, 296, 469, 477, 742-743, 744-751 light vehicles, 56, 75, 287, 296, 297, 310-311, 469, 477, 478, 727-742, 752-753 policy options, 301-304 technological improvements, 291-293, 730, 732-742 mitigation policy options, 56-57, 75, 157, 324, 469-470, 477, 478, 684 research and development needs, 169, 322-323 social costs and benefits, 185n, 321-322 transportation system management, 310-312 barriers to implementation, 312-314 carbon dioxide reduction potential, 60, 312, 317, 319, 324, 478, 484, 489, 684, 759, 760, 761 cost-effectiveness of emission reduction, 319, 321-322, 324, 484, 759-766 costs of implementation, 60, 478, 489, 684 high-occupancy-vehicle lanes, 286, 310, 311, 312, 316, 320, 322, 324 jobs/housing balance, 286, 310, 319 land use planning, 286, 310, 318-319 mass transit, 286, 310, 311, 312, 314, 316, 318, 322, 324 nongreenhouse benefits, 320-322 parking management, 57, 316-317, 319, 320, 470, 759-766 policy options, 314-320 research and development needs, 323, 324 transportation demand management (TDM), 57, 317-319, 320, 324, 470 vehicle miles traveled, 310, 311, 312 Transportation equipment industry, 249 Trans-Tasman Agreement, 628 Trees. See also Forests; Wood adaptation to climate change, 37, 39, 46, 506, 525-526, 569-570, 636 biomass fuel, 348, 349, 779-783 burning, carbon dioxide emission, 11 carbon dioxide enrichment and growth of, 555, 569 carbon dioxide uptake, 5, 40, 77 carbon storage, 77, 437, 439-441, 537, 574-575, 814, 815 diseases, 40, 570 evapotranspiration cooling, 216

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Page 914 hurricane damage, 568-569 migration, 37, 569, 676, 686 moisture sensitivity, 569, 572-573 planting programs, 437-439, 572, 581, 636, 779, 815 urban, 216, 537, 714-715 Tritium, 774 Tropical forests deforestation, 424, 425, 427, 430 preservation, 426, 429, 430 Troposphere chlorofluorocarbons in, 96, 457 hydroxyl radical concentrations, 95 ozone in, 150, 159, 411, 845 radiative forcing, 149, 150 temperature measures, 125 water vapor concentrations, 106 Trucks air pollutant emissions, 321 carbon dioxide emissions, 312 cost of efficiency improvement, 296, 477, 742-743 fuel consumption, 287, 288, 293, 310-311, 728 fuel efficiency measures, 469, 731, 732, 733-735, 742-743, 744-751 Tundra melting, 26 Typhoons, 673 U Ultraviolet radiation, 457, 617, 845 Uncertainty in adaptation measures, 43, 534-537, 541, 561 in climate predictions, 21, 541, 672 of geoengineering policies, 465 in mitigation policy evaluation, 189, 193, 194, 197 research and, 193 temperature records, 119-121 United Kingdom African irrigation projects, 631 fuel prices, 295, 754 nuclear reactor technology, 768, 787 United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), 112 United Nations, 335, 415, 421, 626 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (1951), 621 Environment Programme, 66, 429, 511 Food and Agriculture Organization, 425, 427 High Commissioner for Refugees, 621 Population Fund, 415, 420-421 World Conference on Environment and Development (1992), 67, 83 United States adaptation costs, 542-546, 550, 678-679 adaptation policy options, 44, 69-70, 77-79, 574 adaptive capability, 38, 47, 71, 507, 511-512, 530, 541, 676, 685 agricultural adaptability, 39, 534 agricultural crop varieties, 38, 531, 557 agricultural crop yields, 553, 556, 559 agricultural land use, 799 agricultural methane emission, 394, 395, 799-800 agricultural methane reduction, 401, 800, 801-804 agricultural nitrous oxide emission, 402 agricultural nitrous oxide reduction, 404, 806 agricultural production policies, 399, 801-802 air pollutant emissions, 238, 321 air pollution reductions, 70 alternative transportation fuels, 304, 309 appliance efficiency standards, 209n, 219, 233 automobile dependency, 173, 314, 315, 316, 318, 319, 759 automobile subsidization, 314 biomass fuel use, 348, 779 buildings sector, energy conservation, 204, 207, 220, 221-222, 236, 239-240 buildings sector, energy consumption, 201, 202, 203, 205, 206 carbon dioxide emission, 9-11, 158-160, 164, 165, 168, 688 carbon dioxide emission reduction, 177, 221, 223-224, 239-240, 356-357

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Page 915 chlorofluorocarbon consumption, 376, 385, 386 chlorofluorocarbon emission limits, 70, 74, 182, 377, 385, 496 chlorofluorocarbon phaseout, costs of, 387, 388, 389, 792-797 chlorofluorocarbon taxes, 383-384, 390 climate range, 38, 39 cloud cover, 832 coal-burning technology, 336-337 coal reserves, 332, 336 deforestation, 76 deforestation prevention, 428, 429, 431 drought of 1988, 542, 556, 678 economic consumption, 177-178 economic impacts of climate change, 604, 676 electrical generating capacity, 236-237, 709 electrical generation sources, 334, 336, 789-790, 791 electricity consumption, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 356 electricity demand, 203, 601-602, 610 electricity prices, 213, 709 electric power plant lifespan, 605-606 energy policy, 74-76 energy security, 368-369 energy supply sources, 75-76, 333-334, 335 environmental laws, 631, 632 forest and grassland cover, 39, 76, 437, 567, 568, 575 forest management, 429-430, 572 fossil fuel consumption, 335 greenhouse gas emission, 9-11, 65, 82, 158, 164, 168, 394, 465-466 greenhouse gas emission reduction, 64, 74, 167, 493, 496, 684 gross national product, 678 highway expenditures, 312-313 human health, 41, 618-619, 620 hydroelectric power generation, 342 income, impact of climate change on, 560, 601 industrial adaptability, 41, 44 industrial energy conservation, 261, 271, 282, 717-718 industrial energy consumption, 248, 250-252, 253 infant mortality, 619 international cooperation, 48, 65, 67, 73, 82-83, 494, 495, 496, 691 investment rate of return, 186-187, 189, 689 irrigated acreage, 562 landfill methane emission, 405, 406 landfill methane reduction, 408, 411 mass transit systems, 314 methane emissions, 166, 168, 394, 395, 405, 406, 408, 799-800 mitigation, cost-effectiveness of, 467, 483-486, 488 mitigation implementation costs, 60, 172-173, 476-480, 482, 489, 493, 684 mitigation option evaluation, 473-490 mitigation policy options, 55-59, 69-70, 73-77, 465-472 mitigation strategy, 48, 197, 494, 497 nuclear power supply, 339-340, 787 nuclear reactor technology, 768, 771 oil imports, 320-321 oil reserves, 604-605 paper industry technology, 606-607 paved surface area, 314 policy recommendations, 4, 71-72, 73-83, 511 political stability, 629, 631 population control programs, 82, 420-421, 691 population migration, 42, 620, 622-623, 626, 627, 628, 654 precipitation measurements, 128, 129-131 reforestation, 77, 433, 437-439, 440, 814, 815 research needs, 81, 509 research funding, 71, 239, 324 rice production, 400, 799-800, 801-802 ruminant livestock production, 799, 803, 804 shoreline erosion, 585 solar photovoltaic potential, 775 sulfur dioxide emissions, 831 temperature measurements, 120, 124-125, 126

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Page 916 transportation energy consumption, 286, 311, 320, 335 transportation fuel economy standards, 287-289, 301-303 transportation fuel efficiency, costs of, 300, 755 transportation fuel prices, 295, 314, 315, 754, 755 transportation infrastructure, 533 tree species, 572 tourism and recreation, 41 vehicle miles traveled (VMT), 310, 311, 316 water allocation, 512, 528, 529, 538, 596 water consumption, 602 water resources, vulnerability to climate change, 595, 654 wealth, 35, 38, 69 weather forecasting, 510 wetlands area, 585, 591 wind-generated electricity, 343 United States Department of Agriculture, 511 United States Department of Energy (DOE) agricultural yield study, 559 and chlorofluorocarbon phaseout, 387, 389 Clean Coal Technology Program, 336-337 electric demand projections, 203 electric efficiency estimates, 206 energy efficiency data collection, 226 energy efficiency research, 239 energy supply assessments, 357, 601 industrial adaptability assessment, 606 industrial energy efficiency estimates, 252, 253, 254, 257, 264, 266 mitigation policy options, 169, 606 nuclear reactor technology program, 771 Residential Conservation Survey, 222 transportation fuel economy estimates, 293, 300, 737, 738, 739, 742 United States Forest Service, 442, 511, 568 Uranium, 340, 341 Urban heat islands, 55, 216, 241n.5, 844 Urbanization, 120, 416, 626 Utilities. See Electric utility companies V Variable-speed motors, 191, 192, 260-261, 722 Vegetation. See also Forests; Plants; Trees carbon dioxide enrichment and, 673 carbon storage, 433, 798, 812 electricity use reduction, 55, 210-211, 212, 216, 468, 476 migration, 582 water supply effects, 137, 654 Vehicle efficiency. See Transportation energy management Vehicle miles traveled (VMT), 310, 311, 312 Ventilation, 55, 212, 468, 476, 714-715 Viruses, 618 Volatile organic carbon (VOC), 386 Volatile organic compounds, 307 Volcanic eruptions, 435-436, 449, 460 W Waste heat recovery, 260, 266, 722 Waste management, 398, 401, 805 Water heating cost of energy conservation, 212, 476, 714-715 electricity efficiency potential, 55, 217, 222, 223, 468 natural gas, 222, 223 Water pollution, 596, 610 Water resources. See also Evaporation, Oceans, Precipitation adaptation to climate change, 40-41, 45, 78, 505, 506, 529, 537, 599, 634-635, 636, 677, 690 adaptation costs, 544-545, 679 allocation policies, 512, 538, 596 as climate determinant, 135 in climate models, 136, 137-138 ''consumption" of, 594, 607, 636n.7 costs of, 597, 598, 803 drinking water and sanitation, 619-620, 631 electric power generation uses, 602, 606, 654

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Page 917 forest watersheds, 567 hydroelectric power use, 601-602 hydrologic cycle, 135-136, 137, 592 hydrologic simulation models, 138 impacts of climate change on, 40, 137, 506, 513, 559, 560, 563, 592-595, 605 index of climate change, 42, 43, 503, 653, 654 industrial uses, 607, 654 irrigation consumption, 557, 560, 563, 594, 602 irrigation subsidies, 400, 803 limitation on human adaptation, 43-44, 502-503, 654 management systems, 40-41, 78, 506, 529, 595-598, 599 photosynthesis use, 551, 552 storm and flood control, 528, 559 tourism and recreation, dependence on, 607 transport of, 43-44, 503, 605 Water runoff, 636n.7 adaptation of use, 512, 607 climate change effects, 26, 40, 538, 592-593, 594, 680 in climate models, 80, 137, 138 industrial water consumption, 607 precipitation changes and, 605 sea level effects, 25, 140, 609 soil moisture effects, 115, 135, 136 Water vapor atmospheric concentration, 158 atmospheric heat transport, 101 cloud content, 107-108 emission in landfill gas collection, 407 as greenhouse gas, 3, 91, 103-104, 135, 158, 663 ocean releases, 442-443 radiative feedback, 103-106, 109, 669 storm energy, 673 stratospheric, 146, 150 Weather agricultural sensitivity to, 556, 558 data records, 504, 636 effects of climate change on, 26, 673 ocean circulation and, 26, 584, 591, 676 variability, 513, 515, 537 Weather forecasting, 129 and adaptation to climate change, 80, 510, 534, 691 government provision of, 538 satellites, 531 West Antarctic Ice Sheet, 25, 26, 141, 636n.4, 680 Western Massachusetts Electric Company, 232 Western U.S. fuel taxes and, 303 irrigated area, 564-565, 594 ocean currents and weather, 676 water supplies, 563, 596 West Germany capital stock turnover, 531-532 fuel prices, 295, 754, 755 nuclear reactor technology, 768, 771, 772 Wetlands adaptation to climate change, 40, 636n.6 costs of adaptation, 575-576 impacts of climate change on, 584-585, 591 methane emission, 94, 95, 158 Wheat production adaptation to climate change, 562, 564 carbon dioxide fertilization and, 551, 552, 553 impacts of climate change on, 559, 560-561, 562, 563 White surfaces cost of conserved electricity, 210-211, 212, 476, 714-715 electricity use reduction, 55, 216, 241n.5, 447, 468 Wind, 615 climate change and, 556, 584 Wind energy barriers to implementation, 363, 365-366, 367 cost-effectiveness, 356 cost of implementation, 479, 788, 790 energy supply potential, 58, 343, 372, 471 research and development needs, 371 Winter antarctic stratosphere, chemical reactions, 450

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Page 918 cold acclimatization, 615 electrical demand, 655 mortality rates, 534, 616, 618 precipitation, 128, 129, 138, 154, 654 soil moisture, trees and, 654 solar absorption and reflection, 241n.5 storms, 550 temperature warming, 672 Women, 415, 416, 417, 420, 703 Wood. See also Trees Vegetation biomass fuel, 323, 348, 349, 779-783 burning, carbon dioxide emission, 5, 11 burning, greenhouse gas emission, 700 carbon storage, 575 cookstove burning, 172 energy production, buildings sector, 220 fuel, nitrous oxide emission, 8, 162, 682 methanol produced from, 305, 306, 307, 323 timber products, 424, 426, 556, 571-572 World Bank development loans, 187, 237, 392 economic growth projections, 236, 418, 809, 811 population projections, 415, 421, 809 World Development Report, 418, 809 World Climate Conference (1990), 66-67, 68 World Climate Program (WCP), 66, 511 World Climate Research Program (WCRP), 66 World Development Report (World Bank), 418, 809 World Health Organization, 619 World Meteorological Organization, 66, 129, 382, 511 World Resources Institute (WRI), 427, 812 World Wildlife Fund (WWF), 426, 428, 812 Y Yellowstone National Park, 607 forest fires, 573 Z Zoning, 537, 611 Zoos, 580

Representative terms from entire chapter:

emission reduction