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Summary
This report was prepared in response to a request that the National
Research Council (NRC) assess whether the FY 1991 plan for the U.S.
Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a sound approach to
reducing the scientific uncertainties regarding global change issues. The
charge included several specific questions concerning the plans for the Earth
Observing System a large, single initiative of NASA- in the context of the
USGCRP. The report was prepared by two coordinated panels established
under the auspices of the NRC Committee on Global Change.
ASSESSMENT OF TElE EY 1991 USGCRP
The findings of the Panel to Review the FY 1991 U.S. Global Change
Research Program are summarized as follows.
The interagency USGCRP, as described in the President's FY 1991
budget, defines an appropriate first step toward a sound national program
to reduce the scientific uncertainties associated with global change issues.
The program is clearly aimed at advancing our understanding of the Earth
system. The FY 1991 plan reflects the priorities established by the sci-
entific community over the past decade, primarily through the NRC, and
an unprecedented level of interagency coordination realized through the
Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES). The plan is
also coincident with the goals and activities of the international commu-
nity, through organized projects of the International Geosphere-Biosphere
Program and the World Climate Research Program.
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The panel gave particular attention to the question of whether the
FY 1991 program reflects appropriate balances in allocating resources.
A specific issue was whether an appropriate balance was struck between
initial investments in long-lead time, space-based efforts and investments
in more immediate research endeavors. It is the view of the panel that
the initial investments, though heavy, are both prudent and unavoidable,
given that continuous, long-term, space-based observations of fundamental
environmental parameters are essential to achieving the underlying goals of
the program. Space-based observations will continue to require significant
funding, but appropriate balance will also entail substantial growth in
funding for other aspects of the program in the future to ensure that data
acquired from space are used fully and that the broader progam objectives
are met.
The program also acknowledges other, equally important long-term
investments for which long-lead planning is required. Most important
among these are investments in education to build the cadre of scientists
and technicians needed to carry out the program, and investments in
fundamental research to increase the body of knowledge on which reliable
projections of future change must be based.
Other elements of program balance considered by the panel included
the balances between extra-mural and agency-based research; between
"big" and "little" science; between established and emerging programs;
and among observations, process studies, and modeling elements of the
program; and among the seven science priorities identified in the plans for
the USGCRP. We also examined the processes for coordination and review
of the program, the involvement of the scientific community in program
planning and review, mechanisms for scientific assessment and the delivery
of policy advice, interactions among participating agencies, the need for
international collaboration, the availability of human resources needed to
meet program goals, and the status of "contributing" programs. We reached
a number of conclusions and recommendations as summarized below.
· While the USGCRP includes observations, process studies and
modeling, the FY 1991 program emphasizes observational programs be-
cause of the initiation of the Earth Observing System and Earth Probes
series and the expense of space-based observing systems. The heavy em-
phasis on observations, necessary to initiate long-lead time, space-based
capability, should be balanced as the program develops in the future by
increased emphasis on process studies and modeling.
· The program would benefit from a better definition of the required
national Earth system modeling capability and a workable plan for inter-
preting and delivering the results in forms useful to policymakers. These
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omissions should be addressed soon if the program is to meet its announced
objectives.
· The USGCRP is organized around seven scientific priorities. We
conclude that the ranking of science priorities is consistent with the goals
of the program and the consensus of the scientific community involved in
global change research. The program would be strengthened if the science
element focused on the study of how human activities influence and are
influenced by global change ("human interactions") were better defined
and more adequately funded. Priorities within the USGCRP must be kept
flexible so that the program can remain responsive to research findings and
unanticipated needs.
The collaboration among agencies involved in the USGCRP has
thus far been exemplary regarding definition and planning at the program
level. The CEES has been an effective mechanism for this collaboration.
The next challenge is to extend the collaborative approach to the specific
activities or projects at the level of the Task Groups that now define
activities within the science elements of the program. An ideal would be a
"zero-based" project definition within each science element to discourage
the re-labeling of prior agency initiatives only peripherally related to the
goals of the program.
.
A key example of where interagency collaboration is required is the
development of an overall observational strategy, including space-based and
in situ measurements, to monitor global change and collect data pertinent
to process studies and modeling activities.
USGCRP planning documents distinguish between "focused" (i.e.,
central) and "contributing" (i.e., supportive) programs. The focused ele-
ments do not represent the entirety of the required research, and many
contributing programs and complementary activities in the President's bud-
get must also be sustained if the program is to succeed. These contributing
programs should be identified in a consistent manner.
International collaboration on global change is required both to
secure data on a global scale and to share human and financial resources.
Cooperation with developing countries in global change research should be
strengthened to ensure their involvement. U.S. support for international
efforts, including an appropriate share of the support of program and
project offices, should be made an explicit element of annual budgets.
The role of the scientific community outside the participating agen-
cies in providing for independent scientific review of the overall program
should be more clearly defined, including the role of the NRC, and mech-
anisms for carrying out the reviews should be established.
· The USGCRP must strengthen the involvement and support of
the academic research community, preferably through explicit programs
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of extramural support in each of the agencies, to meet the long-term
need for new scientists and technicians in the program and to ensure the
participation of an adequate base of research scientists.
· Agencies with programs in the "focused" category (e.g., those
programs included in the budget whose goals are regarded by CEES as
central to the USGCRP) should be guided by extramural advisory panels
to ensure appropriate focus and flexibility.
THE EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE USGCRP
The findings of the Panel to Review NASA:s Earth Observing System
in the Context of the USGCRP are summarized as follows.
NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is intended as a major step in
the evolution of the science and technology of global remote sensing. Its
objective is to provide the user community (science, industry, policy) with
the first comprehensive long-term measurement and data system specifi-
cally aimed at global change issues. EOS will also serve as a test bed for
development of the next generation of operational Earth-observing instru-
ments. The EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is intended to
provide means by which the scientific community can gain access to data
obtained from EOS and elsewhere for use in documenting, monitoring, and
modeling global environmental change and the Earth system.
Currently, EOS is at the point in the NASA process where instruments
have been selected for development, but not yet selected for flight. Thus
the information we had for this review was a "snapshot" in time of an
ongoing process of development. All details of the mission have not yet
been established, and even some of the major decisions have not yet been
made. Mindful of this situation, we dealt with the information as part of
a changing process, so that what we have provided here is an assessment
that should itself be viewed as a snapshot of a developing program.
Our charge specified four questions, which are addressed in Chap-
ters 5 through 8, respectively. We reached the following conclusions and
recommendations.
.
The set of instruments proposed and under consideration for flight
would provide measurements of a number of high priority environmental
parameters in the USGCRP framework. The complete set of measure-
ments to be made from EOS spacecraft will depend on success in the
development of the selected instruments and on other factors. EOS will
not, however, provide all the space-based measurements required for un-
derstanding global change. Indeed, some parameters must be measured by
space-based instruments on other satellites and in other orbits. Therefore,
EOS must be Dewed in the context of other space-based measurement
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s
systems of both the United States and other nations participating in global
change research that will fly either before or during the proposed EOS
measurement period.
· Documenting global change will require both space-based and in
situ measurement programs, i.e., in the atmosphere, on the surface of the
Earth, and on and in the oceans. The two types of measurements com-
plement each other and a combination is essential; neither on its own is
sufficient for the purposes of the USGCRP. There is as yet no compre-
hensive observational strategy that relates the total U.S. space-based ob-
serving program to the in situ measurements required for a comprehensive
USGCRP, or that relates the U.S. measurement program to international
efforts, both space-based and in situ. Such a multifaceted strategy is es-
sential, and the agencies involved in the USGCRP should develop it soon
based on work done to date. The strategy should allow for the evolution
of observational goals and technologies.
· Certain sets of data should be collected simultaneously, depending
primarily on the importance of studying the interactions within natural
processes occurring over short time scales, and on the interdependence of
certain sets of measurements. for precise quantitative interpretation. The
panel reviewed the arguments for simultaneity as applied to measurements
aimed at studying the role of clouds in the climate and the hydrologic
cycle and the fluxes of trace gases in biogeochemical cycles. We concluded
that for measurements critical to these two high priority areas of research
in the USGCRP, there is a need for several sets of instruments to make
simultaneous measurements. These arguments lead to a set of overlapping
requirements for a suite of instruments that should be flown on the same
satellite. We are not aware of similar arguments for the measurements
needed to address other scientific objectives of the USGCRP, such as
those directed at the chemists, of the atmosphere and the dynamics of
its upper reaches. While simultaneous measurement by individual pairs
of instruments may be indicated for other scientific objectives, neither
the scientific investigations nor the measurements themselves appear to
demand the breadth of simultaneity essential to the study of the role of
clouds in the climate and the biogeochemical dynamics of trace gases.
· For the two high priority areas described above, we concluded that
the number of instruments that must fly together requires at least one large
satellite. Dividing the proposed instruments for these measurements among
several smaller satellites and flying them in close formation is technically
feasible, but even the smallest coherent set of instruments for one of the
small satellites is still sufficiently large to require a launch vehicle larger
than the Delta rocket.
~ The scientific requirements for continuity in data sets have led
the community of researchers and NASA to plan for a long time-series
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of measurements. EOS plans call for a 15-year record of observations
using series of identical satellites, each with a 5-year lifetime, for each
set of measurements. Measurements to carry out the USGCRP emphasis
on the role of clouds and the fluxes of trace gases, for example, are
planned for a series of large spacecraft called the EOS-A series. It seems
likely that scientific understanding and technical capabilities will change
during the course of the EOS program. Accordingly, although continuity
of specific data sets will be an important consideration, it may also be
desirable to alter the instruments or the platforms, or both, at some time
in the future. NASA is designing the spacecraft and instruments to have
common interfaces, which should make future interchange of instruments
easier than on past missions. Currently, however, the program contains
no process that would enable it to evolve in response to new scientific
understanding, concepts, or technology as they emerge during the life of
the EOS program.
· Scientific arguments for simultaneity in terms of the other research
objectives of the second proposed satellite series, EOS-B, have not been
developed by NASA; it currently appears that these objectives could also
be achieved with a number of smaller, independent satellites. NASA:s
current assessment of comparative costs, as presented to us, suggests that
flying the projected EOS-B instruments on large spacecraft is the least
expensive option, although the differences in cost among some alternative
configurations appear to be relatively small. In principle, the science
investigations proposed for EOS-B could be done by a suite of smaller
satellites. Since a number of the instruments do not require extensive
development, these could perhaps be launched sooner.
· The first EOS satellite is scheduled to be launched in 1998. In the
interim, significant opportunities exist for gathering key global change data
through a number of U.S. and foreign research and operational satellite
missions. Such missions include Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, The
Ocean Typography Experiment/Poseidon, and some of the Earth Probes.
However, we note a gap in the critical area of Earth radiation budget
measurements. It is intended that some of the EOS instruments should
continue to monitor certain environmental parameters so that the precursor
missions flying similar instruments will be prerequisites, not substitutes. We
believe that, if budget constraints arise, it would be more desirable to delay
the launch of EOS spacecraft than to forego or diminish the effectiveness
of the near-term missions.
· The continuity and reliability of data used to monitor global change
as it occurs are particularly important. NASA needs a more thorough
contingent y plan in the event of failures. When the potential for long-term
drift in instruments is considered, it is clear that the issue of calibration
warrants continuing attention.
0, ~) ~
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· The preeminent challenge to global change research is the synthesis
of diverse types of information from many different sources. The EOS Data
and Information System (EOSDIS) will be a pioneering effort in this regard;
the intended scope of the system far exceeds that of any existing civilian
data management system.
Investing in the early development of EOSDIS is appropriate and
necessary for the long-term success of the EOS data collection, manage-
ment, and modeling effort as well as for the USGCRP. Investment, however,
does not guarantee success. While relevant experience for developing EOS-
DIS exists, no operational paradigm for the management and dissemination
of such large scientific damsels currently exists.
· EOSDIS is planned as and must be an evolving entity. NASA
should not attempt to define the total system specifications of EOSDIS at
the outset and then assume that they will not be altered throughout the
remainder of the program.
· EOSDIS should include and accommodate more than just data
from EOS sensors in order to meet the needs of the USGCRP. The
agencies prominent in the collection and dissemination of data NASA,
NOAA, NSF, and USGS have a special responsibility to continue to work
together and with the international community to assure that all relevant
data and information are available to EOSDIS for global change research.
· The management of very large databases with provisions for index-
ing, browsing, visualization, and other capabilities should be viewed as a
research issue. Current understanding of how to meet the challenge is not
mature. A program of research and prototyping is needed to guide the
evolution of the proposed data management capabilities.
We welcome NASAs policies regarding access to EOSDIS data and
data products, which are aimed at making them equally available to all users
and to researchers at nominal costs of reproduction and delivery. Means
should be found to include commercialized I~ndsat data in EOSDIS.
· Because the implementation of EOSDIS poses significant, contin-
uing challenges, EOSDIS should have an ongoing mechanism for acquiring
independent advice from the user community. The EOS Investigators' Sci-
ence Advisory Panel for EOSDIS has successfully focused the concerns of
a broader research community, and the panel should continue to be a long-
term advisory element in the planning and implementation of EOSDIS.
The panel should include some scientists who are not EOS investigators,
but who are active in fields within the range of scientific disciplines involved
in global change research, as well as in research on data and information
management
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
process studies
