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The U.S. Global Change
Research Program:
An Assessment of
FY 1991 Plans
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1990
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NationalAcademy Press · 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. .
Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis-
tinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National
Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the
National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the
National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government
and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel
O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White
are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the bIational Research Council.
This report represents work under Contract No. OCE-9O14447 between the National Academy
of Sciences and the National Science Foundation.
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 90-62105
International Standard Book Number 0-309-04328-X
Available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20418
S191
Printed in the United States of America
First Printing, September 1990
Second Printing, January 1991
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NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
2101 CON5TIT=ION AVENUE W~HIN=ON, D. C. 20418
O FF ~ C E OF TH E CHA l OMAN
The Honorable D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
for Science and Technology
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20506
Dear Dr. Bromley:
On behalf of the National Research Council, we are pleased
to transmit the accompanying report, The U. S. Global Change
Research Program: An Assessment of FY 1991 Plans, as requested
in your letter of January 29, 1990. The report was prepared by
two panels organized under the auspices of our Committee on
Global Change. The panels are to be commended for undertaking
this study of a difficult issue where there are many points of
view.
At the outset we recognized that the panels faced a
complex and difficult task in reviewing such large programs
under very tight time constraints. However, we felt that the
NRC could usefully respond to the specific and focused ques-
tions posed in your letter. In our view, the panels have
succeeded in the task set before them by scrutinizing the
programs carefully, exposing both strong and weak points, and
setting recommendations for future actions. At the same time,
we want to note that the time constraints did not allow the
panels to fully address all aspects and implications of the
questions proposed.
The complexity of the Global Change Research Program and
its interdisciplinary character make formulation of a compre-
hensive plan extremely difficult. The panels found that the
research priorities outlined in the FY 1991 plan are consistent
with the overall objective of achieving an improved under-
standing of global environmental processes. The panels have
outlined a number of issues which we believe require early
attention Dy the government if the program is to achieve many
of its objectives. We highlight some of these below; others
are elaborated in the text.
The report recommends that the agencies participating in
the USGCRP develop a comprehensive global observational strat-
egy for the program. The strategy would take into account
complementary methods, whether space-based, airborne, or from
the surface, as well as on-going observational systems operated
on land, sea, and in space by agencies of the U.S. and other
THE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL IS THE PRINCIPAL OPERATING AGENCY OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SClEN'CES AND THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
TO SERVE GOVERNMENT AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS.
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D. Allan Bromley
Page Two
governments. The report does not address the question of the
appropriate combination of space based, surface-based, or
airborne research and monitoring activities that would be most
cost-effective. To do so would have required considerably more
information and time than were available for the study and
would have required the development of a total program design,
a task the panels were not requested to undertake. Never-
theless, this question deserves the attention of government
managers.
The report concludes, however, that continuous, long-term,
space-based observations of fundamental environmental param-
eters are essential for achieving the underlying goals of the
USGCRP. The panels found that NASA's Earth Observing System,
in conjunction with complementary space missions, will provide
data central to many of the high-priority objectives of the
USGCRP, if plans and schedules are met. Regarding the imple-
mentation of EOS, the report concludes that a significant
measure of simultaneity is desirable for a number of instru-
ments proposed to meet the research objectives of the EOS-A
satellite series but has not been demonstrated to be necessary
for the research objectives of the EOS-B series.
The report also concludes that if funding becomes a
problem, spreading budget reductions evenly over all elements
of the program would be damaging. Funding priority should be
placed on projects of highest~scientific priority. For the
space components of the global observations system, the report
concludes that it would be better to delay the launch of EOS
spacecraft than to forego or diminish the effectiveness of
precursor missions that are also intended to gather data
essential to the USGCRP.
EOS is an extremely complex and costly undertaking and
every step necessary to minimize risk of failure must be
emphasized. A failure could result in many years of delay in
obtaining essential environmental information. The report
calls attention to the need for a more detailed contingency
plan than currently exists. Such a contingency plan is
essential to ensure continuity of observations, one of the
central needs of the program. While most of the instruments
proposed for EOS have had a history of technical development,
the Program envisions significant advances in remote-sensin~
technologies with attendant technical uncertainties. The risks
range from the failure of individual instruments to a single-
point system failure. It is not possible to assess the levels
of such risks, but it is vital that contingencies be provided
for.
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D. Allan Bromley
Page Three
Finally, the report notes that the preeminent challenge to
global change research is the synthesis of diverse data from
many different sources. Investing in the early development of
the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is necessary for
the long-term success of the USGCRP. The intended scope of
EOSDIS far exceeds that of any civilian data management system.
The report concludes that a program of research and prototyping
is needed to guide the evolution of EOSDIS.
The National Research Council is pleased to have had the
opportunity to contribute in this way to the advancement of
global change research.
Sincerely,
nk Press
Chairman
Robert M. ite
Vice-Chairman
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PANEL TO REVIEW TlIE FY 1991
U.S. GLOBAL ClIANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
JOHN ~ EDDY,
Chairman
D. JAMES BAKER, JR., Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.
NYLE C. BRADY, United Nations Development Program
KEVIN C. BURKE, University of Houston
RUSS E. DAVIS, University of California, San Diego
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, National Center for Atmosphenc Research
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, AT&T Bell Laboratories
PRISCILLA C. GREW, Minnesota Geological Survey
WILLIAM J. MERRELL, JR., Texas A&M University
WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER, Duke University
B. L. TURNER, II, Clark University
GUNTER E WELLER, University of Alaska
, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Sta,
RUTH DeFRIES, Senior Program Officer
JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director
MYRON F. UMAN, NRC Assistant Executive Officer
CLAUDETTE BAYLOR, Administrative Secretary
TERRIE NOBLE, Administrative Assistant
ROBERT C. RODNEY, Editor
V11
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PANEL TO REVIEW NASA'S EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM
IN THE CONTEXI OF THE USGCRP
D. JAMES BAKER, JR., Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., Chairman
RICHARD ~ ANTHES, National Center for Atmospheric Research
WILLIAM P. BISHOP, Desert Research Institute
KEVIN C. BURKE, University of Houston
JOHN DASSOULAS, The Johns Hopkins University
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research
JOHN ~ EDDY, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
ROBERT J. FOX University of Wisconsin, Madison
LOUIS J. LANZEROlTI, AT&T Bell Laboratories
JOHN H. McELROY, University of Texas, Arlington
WILLIAM J. MERRELL, JR., Texas A&M University
MARK B. SETTLE, ARCO Oil and Gas Company
LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
BYRON D. TAP LEY, University of Texas, Austin
FERRIS WEBSTER, Universitr of Delaware
Invited Participant
BARBARA MIHALAS, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Staff
PAUL F. UHLIR, Senior Program Officer
JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director
MYRON F. UMAN, NRC Assistant Executive Officer
MARY ELLEN MACK, Senior Secretary
TERRIE NOBLE, Administrative Assistant
ROBERT C. RODNEY, Editor
1X
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COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE
HAROLD ~ MOONEY, Stanford Universitr, Chairman
PAUL G. RISSER, University of New Mexico, Ace Chairman
D. JAMES BAKER, JR., Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.
FRANCIS P. BRETHERTON, University of Wisconsin
KEVIN C. BURKE, University of Houston
WILLIAM C. CLARK, Harvard University
MARGARET B. DAVIS, University of Minnesota
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research
JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University
ROBERT W. KATES, Brown University
THOMAS F. MALONE. Ott Joseph College
MICHAEL B. McELRO\, Harvard University
BERRIEN MOORE, III, University of New Hampshire
ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University
PIERS J. SELLERS, University of Maryland
Ex-Officio Members
JOHN ~ EDDY, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
JAMES J. McCARTHY, Harvard University
S.I. RASOOL, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Staff
JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director
RUTH S. DeFRIES, Senior Program Officer
CLAUDETTE BAYLOR, Administrative Secretary
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Contents
Preface
xv
Summary
Assessment of the FY 1991 USGCRP
The Earth Observing System in Context of the USGCRP 4
PART I:
The U.S.Global Change Research Program:
Report of the Panel to Review the BY 1991
US.Global Change Research Program
Introduction
1. Reducing Uncertainties
1
11
13
2. Appropriate Balance 16
3. Processes for Coordination and Review 22
4. Other Issues
PART II:
The Contributions of EOS:
Report of the Panel to Review NASA's Earth Observing System
in the Content of the USGCRP
Introduction
. . .
x~n
25
31
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Environmental Parameters
6. Simultaneity of Data Collection
7. EOS Platforms
8. The EOS Data and Information System
Appendixes
The Charge to the National Research Council
B. Comments on Projects in the Science Pnonty Elements
of the FY 1991 USGCRP
C. Protohrping for EOSDIS
References
Acronyms
34
50
61
72
85
90
99
103
105
XIV
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Preface
On January 29, 1990, the Assistant to the President for Science and
Technology, D. Allan Bromley, wrote to the Chairman of the National
Research Council (NRC), Frank Press, asking the NRC to review the inter-
agency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), as described in
the President's FY 1991 budget, and to address several specific questions
about NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS) in that context. This report
responds to that request.
The report was prepared under the auspices of the NRC's Committee
on Global Change (CGC). Over the past seven years, the CGC and its
predecessor committees have issued a series of reports advising government
and the scientific community on the critical scientific questions about global
change and the research strategies needed to address them. ~ conduct the
current study, the CGC organized two panels, which worked concurrently.
One panel reviewed the USGCRP while the other addressed the questions
about EOS. 1b assure coordination and consistency in the panels' work,
several people, including their respective chairs, served as members of
both. Both panels were subject to the policy and procedures of the NRC
regarding potential sources of bias and conflicts of interest.
The report is the work of the two panels. Part I was prepared by
the Panel to Review the FY 1991 U.S. Global Change Research Program
and Part II was prepared by the Panel to Review NASA s Earth Observing
System in the Context of Global Change Research.
In conducting their assessments, the panels examined the summary
budget analysis entitled Our Changing Planet: The FY 1991 U. 5. Global
xv
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Change Research Program, a number of published reports on global change
research and on EOS and related space-based observing missions, a forth-
coming report on EOS being prepared by the NRC's Space Studies Board,
and internal governmental working documents, some of which were only
available in draft. In the limited time available for the study, each panel
conducted two meetings at which it received briefings from agency person-
nel and contractors. In addition, the panels solicited the views of a number
of colleagues to gain as broad a perspective as possible.
At the request of Dr. Bromley, the panels issued a preliminary report
on March 30, 1990. The final report in hand here is consistent with the
findings, conclusions, and recommendations of the preliminary report; it
expands on the earlier analysis and extends it.
Harold ~ Mooney
Chairman
Committee on Global Change
XVI
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The U.S. Global Change
Research Program:
An Assessment of
FY 1991 Plans
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