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Executive Summary STANLEY I. AUERBACH Oak Ridge National Laboratory ALAN W. MAKI Exxon Company, USA ELLIS B. COWLING North Carolina State University The various chapters of this book were developed to illustrate the current state of knowledge about ecological risks in Poland and the United States. The scientists and engineers who prepared these chapters have very diverse backgrounds in terrestrial and aquatic ecology, environmental engineering, public administration, and economics. The authors of each chapter were challenged to represent their particular disciplines and ex- perience during both the Polish and U.S. portions of the joint workshops sponsored by the Polish Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. Through these interactions, the partici- pants made some useful progress in developing a conceptual framework for science-based environmental policy which two of us (Auerbach and Maki) have presented in Chapter 24. Because of the great differences in current environmental conditions in Poland and the United States, many of our workshop participants were surprised to discover many similarities in the environmental management goals and objectives in our two countries. The similarities were much greater than the differences. For this reason, the approaches that are needed in the future to ensure the conservation and wise use of natural resources, and the protection and enhancement of ecological values should also be similar. Highlights from each major section and chapter of this book are summarized in the paragraphs that follow. OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTERS The book begins with an overview chapter by Cowling, Grodzinski, and Breymeyer. These persons served as chairpersons for the workshops, both 14
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OVERVIEW 15 in Poland and the United States, and also as editors of the book itself. Their opening chapter sets the stage for all other parts of the book. They describe the importance of natural systems for human beings and then define what is meant by ecosystems, ecological risks, ecological risk assessment, and ecological risk management. They point up some interesting contrasts and similarities between ecological goals and conditions in Poland and the United States. The chapter ends with a statement of hope for a future in which ecological risks are assessed and management with greater wisdom- not only in Poland and the United Statesóbut in many other countries of the world as welt Chapter 2 Is the Executive Summary of the book, which you are now reading. ECOLOGICAL MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS Chapters 3 through 6 deal with the fundamental concepts of ecological risk assessment and risk management. In Chapter 3, Russell proposes that all questions of ecological impact need to be answered in the context of human values both economic and aesthetic or existential. In this context, the environment (including all terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems) are sources of materials and aesthetic or recreational experiences which contribute to the prosperity and quality of human life. In most societies, ecosystems are regarded as public or private property which should be managed for the benefit of humans rather than protected or conserved for their own sake. Analysis of ecological impacts needs to take into account two major and differing social points of view concerning relations between human beings and the rest of nature. One extreme view is that society is an "interloper" and hence generally destructive to natural systems. The other, ethnocentric viewpoint is that ecological systems and all they encompass are factors of production and consumption in an economic sense and do not have intrinsic value. Under the latter viewpoint, changes in ecosystems are judged by their potential impact on the values and quality of human life. In evaluating changes in ecosystems (and hence potential ecological risk), one needs to take into account the dimensions of the problem (i.e., space involved), time (i.e., how much of the future needs to be taken into account), which groups of people have the most to gain or lose, and how differing perspectives should be considered in making social judgments or establishing environmental, industrial, economic, or social policy. In summary, ecological impacts, whether avoided or encouraged, have both economic and social costs. In a human-centered value system, the social dilemma centers around whether those costs are worth bearing.
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16 ECOLOGICAL H5~ In Chapter 4, Marek and Kassenberg deal with the relationships be- tween social planning and environmental protection. Although this chapter focuses on these issues in Poland, the concepts and ideas have much wider applicability. Because of their inherent complexity, issues of environmental protection should be addressed through a systems-analytic approach that encompasses all the interactions and interdependencies among social needs and requirements, economic activity, and environmental conditions. The scale of analysis should be at the level of major socio-economic subsystems that contain key social components and that have major environmental ~m- plications. An example of such a subordinate part of our social-economic system is the energy/environment complex. Research is needed in this (and many other) areas to determine the nature and magnitude of direct or indirect effects on humans and on ecosystems. In the environmental arena these include: ical cycles; and identification and quantification of pollutants; improvement and verification of pollution dispersion models; understanding the fate of pollutants and their role in biogeochem- ∑ estimation of changes in the environment caused by emissions of specific pollutants which act alone and in mixtures. The concept of integrated planning provides an opportunity for formulat- ing and implementing a socially acceptable strategy of development that integrates and harmonizes social, economic, and ecological interests. In Chapter 5, Kabala analyzes the economic factors involved in Poland's contemporary environmental problems. He points out that the country is in the grip of a dual crisis of economic reversal and ecological degradation whose roots lie in the country's thirty-year policy of intense industrialization. The intensive use of energy and material resources in an economy biased toward heavy industry has come to produce ever smaller gains in material benefits and has begun to supplant opportunities for environmentally benign development. Efforts to modernize industry and invest in environmental protection are hampered by the country's high foreign debt. Events since the economic crisis of 1981 indicate that Poland will not be able to restore its economic vitality nor modify the structure of its economy without external assistance.. The social, political, and ecological stresses resulting from this lack of internal capability are already manifest. A desirable first step in correcting the dual problem is investment of new foreign capital in ways that link financial considerations with environmental needs so that both problems are addressed simultaneously. In Chapter 6, Maki and Slimak discuss the role of ecological risk as- sessment in environmental decision making. The formal assessment process used by many industries and by the Environmental Protection Agency in
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OVERVIEW 17 the United States consists of two parallel lines of investigation designed to relate observed effects to expected exposures. The evaluation includes consideration of the following factors: ∑ chemical and physical properties of the substances in question; how and in what quantities the material is to be used; expected concentrations in the environment; ∑ environmental fate tests; estimates of human and environmental exposure; tests for human health effects; tests for environmental effects; ∑ field monitoring and modeling; ∑ comparison of predicted concentrations and predicted effects; and ∑ decisions about the acceptability or unacceptability of the predicted risks. Although quantitative methods are available for assessment of some of these factors, others require good judgment by industry and regulatory leaders and by workers or citizens who may come in contact with the substances in question. HUMAN EFFECTS ON THE TERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENT Human effects on the terrestrial environment are discussed in Chapters 7-14. This section of the book begins with two chapters on concepts in stress ecology. It includes four chapters on air pollution impacts and ends with two chapters on environmental monitoring. Concepts in Stress Ecology In Chapter 7, Harwell, Harwell, Weinstein, and Kelley show how understanding stress ecology is essential to effective assessment and man- agement of ecological risk. This requires understanding of: stress; ∑ how components of ecosystems are exposed to human-induced ∑ how these systems respond to stress; and ∑ how ecosystems recover once the stress is removed or ameliorated. A scheme is required to separate important changes from less impor- tant ones. This scheme ultimately must relate to aspects of ecosystems that humans value and therefore are identified in social objectives or legal regulations such as protection of endangered species, prevention of erosion on construction sites, or maintenance of biological diversity. Ideally, these social objectives or legal requirements should be formulated in ecologically
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18 ECOLOGICAL RISKS meaningful terms (sometimes called ecological endpoints) which are de- fined in terms of species, communities, or ecosystem processes. Changes in carefully selected ecological endpoints constitute changes that must be considered in ecological risk assessments. Harwell et al. argue that a com- plete assessment process should also identify those specific components of ecosystems (e.g., particular species, rates of particular processes, concen- trations of particular chemicals) that need to be measured and monitored in order to detect socially significant ecological changes caused by stress. Such indicators of ecological effects, properly measured and compared with non-stressed situations, can provide the basis for evaluating impacts from human activities and, through application of ecological understand- ing, can allow projections of future: impacts. In this way, ecological risk assessment and management can be prospective and not just in reaction to unacceptable environmental damage already done. In Chapter 8, Breymeyer asserts that analysis of risks to ecosystems should be predicated on understanding functional roles within the ecosys- tems themselves. For this purpose, ecosystems should be understood in terms of the amounts of organic matter produced and stored within the system and the fluxes of energy and nutrients flowing through the sys- . tem. The sequence of basic processes of production, consumption, and decomposition are the key functional attributes essential for maintaining the stability and resiliency in ecosystems. Ecosystem risk analysis can be facilitated by comparing the changes in processes under differing amounts of or gradients of stress. Examples of this approach include: comparing the natural range of ecosystem processes (including net primary productivity) and structures (e.g., above- and below-ground biomass) as a function of precipitation, climate, etc.; ∑ comparing rates of decomposition as a function of latitude and eve potranspiration; ∑ comparing the distribution of forests in relation to air pollution loadings; and ∑ analysis of the biomass and composition of soil fauna as a function of pollution stress. Such comparative analyses of system-level attributes provide a sound con- ceptual foundation for ecological risk assessments. Air Pollution Impacts The known effects of air pollution and the possible effects of acid deposition on forests have evoked major public concern and a manyfold increase in research in North America in recent years. Earlier research
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OVERVIEW 19 on the effects of sulfur dioxide and fluoride near major point sources of these pollutants has given way to greatly increased research on the effects of regionally dispersed secondary pollutants such as ozone and acid deposition. In Chapter 9, Bartuska describes the development of regional case studies of these effects in various parts of North America and the difficult challenges of: . distinguishing the individual and combined effects of airborne pol- lutant chemicals from those of natural stress factors such as water stress, frost, and biotic pathogens; and ∑ determining effects on mature trees in whole landscapes rather than just the response of individual seedlings to particular stress agents in controlled chamber studies. Improving this knowledge base is complicated by absence of visible symptoms in many cases. Research which links physiological or nutritional changes with growth appears to be a useful approach to evaluating air pollution impacts on trees in the short term. Ultimately, however, we need to know if the growth and productivity of whole forest ecosystems is affected. Such effects only can be detected with long-term measurements. The challenge will be to provide sufficient information to assist policy makers in making short-term decisions while emphasizing that only through long-term studies will uncertainty be reduced. In Chapter 10, Godzik and Sienkiewicz describe recent changes in the health of forest in Central Europe (Poland, Czechoslovakia, and the German Democratic Republic). These changes have resulted in large part from a combination of regional and point-source pollution problems. Measurements of air pollutants in the forested areas of these countries suggest that sulfur dioxide is the pollutant most likely responsible for damage to forests. Other pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, fluoride, and heavy metals may be contributing or interacting factors in some cases, especially in local situations where large amounts of these substances are emitted from local sources. Part of the difficulty in attributing injury to forests to particular sources of pollution is that much of Central Europe has been subjected to many different kinds and sources of air pollution for a long time, and measurements of some pollutants such as ozone are generally lacking. For this reason, it is difficult to relate specific injuries to particular emission sources and insults. In Chapter ll, Heck emphasizes that air pollution effects on agricul- tural plants have been studied for more than a century. Damage or injury from point sources were first recognized in the early 1900s. Research was directed at recognizing injury symptoms and assessing losses in productiv- ity in accordance with the severity of symptom development. Able 1 in the chapter lists the airborne pollutant chemicals that have been shown
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20 ECOLOGICAL RISKS to injure crops at some range of pollutant exposure expressed in terms of concentration and time. Much current research has centered on the impacts of ozone and acid precipitation on the growth and yield of crop plants. Ozone has been proven to affect the growth, reproduction, quality, and yield of many crops. Direct effects include changes in leaf surface structure, leaching of nutrients, and changes in metabolic function or re- productive processes. Conclusive evidence of injury in agricultural crops by acid deposition is very limited. In the United States, ozone has by far the greatest impact on crop production. A number of regional and national crop-loss assessments have been made since 1980. Regional estimates range from about $30 million to $670 million per year. National estimates based on different groups of crops, ranged from $1.2 to $3 billion annually. In both regional and national estimates, corn and soybean were key components. A summary of economic estimates suggests that current seasonal ozone concentrations are causing an annual loss in excess of $3 billion in crop productivity. These assessments require three factors: ∑ response function that links yield to exposure; ∑ an air quality data base to link response to exposure on a geographic basis; and . a crop census. Sources of uncertainty that should be taken into account in future assess- ments include: development of a data base that is more fully representative of North America; ∑ effects of other biotic or abiotic stresses on crop response to air pollutants; and ∑ better control and measurement of experimental variables. in distinct contrast to the situation in the United States, Godzik points out in Chapter 12 that air pollution effects on forests in Poland are better understood than effects on agricultural crops. ~venty-seven regions of Poland have been designated as Areas of Ecological Hazard (AEH) because of environmental pollution. Agricultural land constitutes about ten percent of these areas. The impacts of air pollution on a broad regional scale is currently not known because a country-wide survey has not been made. While investigations near sources of pollutants have shown significant decreases in crop yields, these impacted areas also have high soil concentrations of heavy metals which confound correlations with current air pollution. Because of their implications for human health, Godzik stresses that yield reductions in crops are less important than the concentration of heavy
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OVERVIEW 21 metals and other contaminants in fruit and vegetables. At present it would be very difficult to determine air pollution losses in crops on a country-wide scale because of: . lack of methods for determining yield reductions in already- polluted areas; ∑ lack of data on air pollutant concentrations on a regional scale; ∑ lack of experimental results on decreases in crops yield in regions other than Upper Silesia (a heavily polluted region); and lack of financial resources. Monitoring Ecological Stresses and Effects In Chapter 13, Molski and Dmuchowski describe techniques for moni- toring the distribution and intensity of toxic elements in the forest vegetation of Poland. They demonstrate that pine needles are useful bioindicators of the geographic distribution of pollutant elements within the country and show that the accumulation of particular elements within pine needles is a useful index of pollution impacts on vegetation. These studies were initiated in the Bialowieza Forest District (a rel- atively clean area) and in the Panewnik Forest District near Katowice (among the most polluted areas in Poland). Later, the study was broad- ened to include a survey of all of Poland, using an 8 km by 8 km and as the basis for a country-wide sampling scheme. Three hundred sites were selected from the grid for sampling using a random number process. The distribution patterns of the nine elements found in the needles were drawn on country-wide maps using a computer mapping program. Of the nine elements analyzed (sulfur, chromium, arsenic, iron, copper, zinc, cadmium, lead, and nickel), sulfur was the most widespread and abundant contami- nant, with concentrations often exceeding the amounts needed for normal growth and development. Molski and Dmuchowski found that about 50 percent of the pine forest areas in Poland had sulfur contents exceeding 200 percent of the normal concentration, i.e., 1,200 ppm. Arsenic showed a bimodal type of distribution reflecting both long range transport from other countries and point-source contributions from industrial centers and coal-fired electric generating stations within Poland. The other elements also were limited in their quantities and distributions. Molski and Dmuchowski point out that this type of research offers the possibility of determining the kinds and extent of plant resources that are being threatened by air pollution and identifying plant gene pools that may warrant protection against extinction by air pollution. In Chapter 14, Grodzinska has demonstrated the value of mosses in national parks as long-term bioindicators of pollution in various parts of Poland. Her data show that both geographical and temporal trends can
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22 ECOLOGICAL RISKS be determined by these methods. For example, mosses collected from national parks in the southern part of Poland are most contaminated with various heavy metals (including cadmium, chromium, nickel, lead, and zinc), whereas mosses collected in the least industrialized parts show much lower contaminations. Similarly, trends in concentration of certain metals in mosses over a series of years were well correlated with industrial activity in large areas of Poland. Grodzinska also provides a useful summary of the morphological and physiological characteristics of mosses and the particular features of na- tional parks that make them simple, rapid, inexpensive, and effective means by which to monitor long-term trends in pollution loadings. AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY In Chapters 15 and 16, Ryszkowski and Johnston give two remark- ably contrasting views of the ecological impacts of agricultural and forestry practices on the environment. In Chapter 15, Ryszkowski describes the results of many decades of observation of landscapes in Poland containing many different mixtures of crops, pastures, and both natural and managed forests and grasslands growing on various types of soils, slopes, etc. He also describes the effects of different sizes of fields, natural areas, methods of cultivation, orientation of rows, and tillage, fertilization, irrigation, pes- ticide, and harvesting practices. These results show that optimum choices among all of these variables can make very large differences in the ef- ficiency of agricultural and forest production in terms of yields, amount of purchased inputs, amounts of irrigation water used, amounts of energy needed, amounts of erosion, and both nutrient- and water-use efficiency. This chapter gives new meaning to the term "appropriate technology" and suggests that very large gains in efficiency of agricultural and forestry oper- ations can be achieved through more holistic understanding of the land-use and production-management systems of whole landscapes. The innovative and familiar ecological guidelines for agriculture and silviculture contained in this paper offer great potential to farmers and foresters in a wide range of circumstances in many different countries throughout the world. In Chapter 16, Johnston has summarized a series of ecological prob- lems associated with agricultural development using some examples from the United States. Special attention is given to the twin problems of soil erosion and its impacts on both land quality and surface waters, and chem- ical contamination with fertilizers and pesticides and their impacts on both surface waters and groundwaters. Johnston distinguishes between on-site effects in which the principal impacts are on the farm itself, and off-site impacts in which the principal impacts are on down-stream water quality.
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OVERVIEW 23 Off-site impacts can include both short-distance and sometimes very long- distance impacts. When the United States Congress passed the Federal Water Pollution Control Act in 1972, the nation's waters were threatened mainly by discharges from industry where it was fairly easy to identify a particular point from which the discharges came, hence the term "point sources." Five years later, the Soil and Water Resource Conservation Act of 1977 identified agriculture as the primary cause of changes in water quality resulting from many diffuse points of discharge, hence the term "non-point sources." Erosion and runoff from agricultural lands are leading sources of non-point pollutants. A major advance in understanding losses of topsoil due to erosion was development of the universal soil loss equation (USLE) which expresses soil losses in tons of topsoil per acre of land per year. Average losses in the United States are about 4.8 tons per acre per year. Leaching of water soluble pesticide and fertilizer nutrient chemicals from agricultural lands is another serious problem in many parts of the United States. John- ston describes the development and use of a series of practices designed to decrease erosion and leaching of agricultural chemicals from farmland. These include conservation tillage, contour farming, strip cropping, terrac- ing, land leveling, and planting of trees on highly erodable land. Practices aimed at decreasing chemical contamination of surface waters include de- creased dependence on pesticides through increased use of crop rotations and genetically resistant varieties of crops and adoption of integrated pest management practices. IMPACTS ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS In Chapters 17 through 19, Hillbricht-ILkowska, Cooper, and Gromiec provide a comparative analysis of pollution impacts on aquatic ecosystems in Poland and the United States. Their collective experience shows that water quality problems in Poland resemble those that were familiar over two decades ago, before the United States undertook its massive water cleanup and sewage treatment programs. Currently, the majority of the major rivers in Poland have experienced serious degradation of water quality. If experience in the United States is Apical, Poland can expect to discover it has major groundwater contamination problems in addition to its present surface-water problems. The monitoring and mitigation programs that will be needed to redress these problems will require a much more intensive investment in chemical methods for analysis and removal. High sulfur coal is the major domestic source of energy in Poland and western currencies are scarce. Because of this, Poland needs "soft energy" alternatives that are much more labor intensive rather than those utilized in the United States.
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24 ECOLOGICAL RISKS Based on the above assumptions, a number of recommendations are made by these authors. Their key points include the following: ∑ River basin management units for water quality regulation should be explored. The Tennessee Valley Authority might be considered as a possible model for institutional arrangements. Experimental watersheds in Poland must be utilized as prototype ecosystems to demonstrate the suitability of alternative technologies and to train managers on site. Em- phasis should be given to discharges from non-point sources of nutrients, utilizing wetlands as pretreatment units, riparian vegetation strips as buffer zones, and in sim ecological manipulations to encourage aquatic ecosystem responses. Water resources in Poland are very scarce, and high quality water is even more limited. Legislatively based regulations and pricing policies should be evaluated with the focus on water conservation and water qualifier management. ∑ Appropriate technologies based on limited amounts of energy and western currencies for remediation and control of water quality must be identified. The infrastructure necessary to support these technologies must be developed in Poland. ∑ Consumer products that reduce environmental loadings must be encouraged. Biodegradable pesticides, low phosphate detergents, recyclable materials, and other means should be considered in terms of costs, benefits, and ecological risk assessments. ∑ Cooperative training programs between Poland and the United States that integrate environmental engineering and ecological risk assess- ment should be initiated for graduate students, postdoctoral students, and college faculties. ∑ A major new initiative is needed for monitoring of nitrates and other toxic substances in groundwater, including the detection and mea- surement of organic substances through the use of advanced analytical techniques such as gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy. Poland must be considered a water-poor country, where conflicts over water-resource use and development are on the rise. Water resources are unevenly distributed among different parts of the country, and water supplies now appear inadequate in quantity and quality at the same time that demand is increasing in many regions of the country. Lakes in Poland, especially in the northern region, are threatened by eutrophication. Recent trends in chemical analyses suggest that phosphorus loading from human sources is the primary cause. Unfortunately, there are no data on heavy metals and synthetic organic substances to evaluate the toxic chemical loadings to these lakes. The current lake-monitoring program should be expanded to include toxic chemicals in addition to , ~ ~
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OVERVIEW 25 cultural eutrophication. Eutrophication is likely to remain the chief- cause of human disturbances of natural lakes and their environments even after the elimination of the point-source nutrients. It is the main cause of changes in the numerous small- and medium-sized natural lakes situated in arable regions (i.e., the North European postglacial lakelands) that serve as important tourist centers. An integrated assessment and management system is needed to de- termine impacts on lake waters at all trophic levels. It should be based on the role of the watersheds in the supply and transport of nutrients, the natural resistance of lakes to eutrophication, and the response of lake biota and its internal processes along a trophic contiuum. A system of this sort was applied to 24 large lakes in the Masurian Landscape Protected Area and led to recommendations for different forms of protection for both watersheds and lakes in Poland. Degradation of groundwater resources is a different class of environ- mental problems than cultural eutrophication of surface waters. Nitrate loadings from septic fields and agricultural practices are major problems. Contamination of potable water by halogenated solvents and pesticides is another class of emerging environmental problems for Poland. A monitor- ing program should be initiated for nitrates, synthetic organic substances, and metallo-organic substances in groundwater and ecological food chains. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES In Chapter 20, Trojan presents the results of a two-year comparative analysis of the concepts and methods used in development of environmental policy in several of the socialist countries of Europe, including the USSR, the German Democratic Republic, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland. This study reveals substantial similarities in policy perspectives in these countries and in many democratic countries. These similarities are evident in the recommendations deriving from the study: ∑ Improve the organization of local and central government agencies concerned with environmental protection and natural resource. ∑ Increase collaboration between countries in developing equipment for environmental monitoring and protection. ∑ Develop legal, economic, and regional planning instruments that are consistent with ecological policy initiatives. ∑ Enhance educational and other social programs that will positively reinforce ecologically sound management decisions and actions. In Chapter 21, Riordan reviews the progress in scientific understanding that was achieved and the stalemate in political negotiations that took place between Canada and the United States with regard to acid deposition and
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26 ECOLOGICAL RISKS its effects during the years between 1982 and 1987. Both the scientific progress and the political stalemate that developed during this period illustrate how difficult it can be to achieve both a scientific and a political consensus on what should be done about a complex environmental problem like acid deposition. Some scientism and industrial and political leaders in both countries were convinced that acid deposition posed a serious threat to sensitive aquatic ecosystems and that significant decreases in emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides should be undertaken immediately. Others were equally convinced that there was not an immediate need for decisions and that time was available for additional research to resolve important uncertainties. Still others stood somewhere between these extremes. The end result was a standoff which may be resolved by future changes in scientific consensus and/or industrial and political leadership in one country or the other. Whatever the future may hold, Riordan's analysis of the scientific and political issues provides a useful case study for future reference. In Chapter 22, Kassenberg provides a detailed diagnosis of the current ecological crisis in Poland. His analysis begins with a presentation of monitoring data on air quality, water quality, changes in the condition of land, and the status of living resources in forests and landscape parks. It continues with a description of the principal factors which have led to changes which, in aggregate economic terms, represent more than 10 percent of the national economic product of Poland. He also describes a four-zone environmental classification system for Poland and outlines the environmental policies required for protection or restoration of each area. These four zones include: Zone I: characterized by many contiguous or nearly contiguous areas of high ecological hazard; requires intensive efforts for restoration of living conditions and economic activities; Zone II: includes two heavily polluted coastal areas; requires a signifi- cant decrease in human population density and intensity of use; Zone III: several ecological hazard areas are dispersed; requires re- gional development that extends across natural barriers; and Zone IU: relatively free of pollution problems; requires implementation of the principles of ecodevelopment. In Chapter 23, Juda and Budzinski discuss the linkages between energy use and environmental problems. In Poland, as in many other countries, energy use is coupled with environmental issues especially where coal seines as the primary source of energy for generation of electricity. ~ understand the complexity of these relationships and interdependencies on a country-wide basis, complex system models are needed which incorporate both ecological and economic factors. Juda and Budzinski describe some
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OVERV7EW 27 aspects of these models which are predicated on optimum consumption. They outline a number of opportunities for application of these models and describe the sequential components of an overall systems analysis for Poland. SYNTHESIS ANI) INTEGRATION The book ends with a summary chapter by Auerbach and Maki. In Chapter 24, they have put forward a conceptual framework for a science- based environmental policy and restoration program for pollution-impacted ecosystems. This conceptual framework includes many ideas that are de- veloped in the earlier chapters of this book. The principal elements of this conceptual framework include the fol- lowing steps in a continuous system of ecological risk ecological assessment, and ecological management activities: Step 1: Monitoring programs that provide objective data for analysis of current conditions and trends in the condition of ecosystems; Step 2: Ecological risk assessments that define the scope of exist- ing problems within ecosystems that are now being impacted or may be impacted in the future; Step 3: Development of science-based policy recommendations that will lead to improvement in the condition of the ecosystems shown to be impacted or at risk in Steps 1 and 2 (above); Step 4: Definition of environmental limits for continuing economic development and initiation of public education about these environmental limitations; Step 5: Implementation of technologies that will allow for sustained use and enjoyment of the ecosystems that are at risk or of control technologies that will allow presently damaged ecosystems to recover; Step 6: Reassessment and redefinition of needs for environmental monitoring in the light of experience which feeds back to Step 1 once again.
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Representative terms from entire chapter: