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Assessment and Management of Ecological Risks
ELLIS B. COWLING
North Carolina State University
WLADYSLAW GRODZINSKI
Jagiellonian University
ALICIA BREYMEYER
Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization
The purpose of this joint publication by the Polish Academy of Sciences
(PAN) and the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (NAS) is
to help our two countries learn more about the assessment and management
of ecological risk. The interest of our two Academies to collaborate in this
endeavor is an outgrowth of concern about the current state of our natural
heritage.
IMPORTANCE OF ECOSYSTEMS FOR HUMANS
The prosperity and quality of life in every nation depend on a long list
of natural endowments. These gifts from the evolutionary history of our
planet vary greatly from continent to continent, country to country, locality
to locality, and time to time (Conable, 1987; Brundtland, 1987~.
In the cases of Poland and the United States, our natural heritage
includes: a wide diversity of valuable plants, animals, and microorganisms;
abundant air and water; productive soils, farmlands, forests, and aquatic
ecosystems; beautiful mountains, lakes, streams, and rivers; valuable wilder-
ness, coastal areas, wetlands, and groundwaters.
Throughout our history, every man, woman, and child has had good
reason to care about the quality and stability of these natural resources. We
care because so much of our economic and social well-being as individuals
and as peoples is affected. But the history of our two countries shows that
we still have a great deal to learn about how to care enough and to be
wise enough to be good stewards of our natural resources to fulfill the
vision that seers such as Aldo Leopold (1968) had for a land ethic, that Van
Rensselaer Potter (1959, 1987) had for a society committed to ecological
3
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4
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
bioethics, and that Brundtland (1987) had for a world society committed to
sustainable development.
The processes of urbanization and industrialization have added greatly
to the challenges of continuing the economic development in our societies
while maintaining the quality of our environment, the productivity and
health of our people, and the stability of the ecosystems on which our
life depends. Successive generations of Poles and Americans have had
progressively higher expectations than their predecessors for wholesome
food, clean drinking water, material possessions, travel, education, satisfying
jobs, enjoyable living and working conditions, and personal, social, and
national security. All these aspirations have added to the demands of our
people for an ever-increasing standard of living. Unfortunately, however,
they also have added many waste materials which circulate through the air,
land, surface waters, groundwaters, ecosystems, and all the living things
with which we share our life on this planet.
Success in the conservation, wise use, and protection of ecosystems
and other natural resources requires that scientists, industrial and political
leaders, and citizens in every aspect of society learn a great deal more
about:
the distinctive features and dynamics of the ecosystems and other
natural resources of our countries;
· the industrial, social, political, technical, and economic systems by
which these resources are managed; and
· appropriate methods by which to assess the nature and magnitude
of risks to ecosystems caused by both deliberate and inadvertent human
activities. Such understanding is needed by citizens and industry leaders in
every local community or district, as well as within the state and federal
governments of our own and neighboring countries (fillet and Murota,
1987~.
These three types of knowledge provide the foundation for making
wise (or unwise) choices about alternative means by which to:
· produce the goods and services our people need (or think they
need); while
maintaining the productivity and stability of the ecosystems on
which the quality and abundance of our life depends (Breymeyer, 1986;
Brundtland, 1987; NAS, 1986~.
An especially important part of these scientific and educational chal-
lenges is to learn how to properly dispose of all the waste materials that
our modern sidles of living introduce into the air, waters, and soils of the
cities, towns, villages, farms, forests, and the wilderness and recreational
areas of our countries. As discussed more fully in the various chapters
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OVERVIEW
s
of this book, both Poland and the United States have had some satisfying
successes and some spectacular failures in developing systems for proper
disposal of wastes.
The purpose of this book is to review some of the concepts that
societies must use to improve our assessments of risks and our management
of ecosystems. Case histories are presented by authors from both countries
to illustrate the advantages and limitations of several different methods.
Before we begin, however, a few definitions are in order.
DEFINITIONS
Ecosystems
Ecosystems are composed of biotic (living) and abiotic (nonliving)
components. The biotic components consist of three general types of living
organisms:
· producers: green plants that capture the energy of the sun and
produce organic matter;
· consumers: including humans and other animals that utilize as their
energy sources the food materials stored by producers; and
· decomposers: mostly microorganisms that obtain their energy by
breaking down and converting the dead bodies of organisms into simpler
compounds.
The abiotic components of ecosystems include air, water, soil, nutrients,
the geological substrata, sediment, and both particulate and dissolved dead
organic matter.
W.L. Smith (1980) described the relationships among ecosystem com-
ponents as follows. Ecosystems are energy-processing systems whose com-
ponents have evolved together over a long period of time. The boundaries
of natural ecosystems are determined by the environment, i.e., by what
forms of life can be sustained by environmental conditions of a particu-
lar region. Plant and animal populations within the system represent the
objects through which the system functions.
Ecosystems are also open systems. They receive materials from and
contribute to the environment that surrounds them. The environment
contributes gases, minerals, and energy. Ecosystems utilize these substances
and, in turn, make their own contributions to the environment. Energy
flows through the system unidirectionally while water, gases, and minerals
are recycled and fed back into the system.
Stress occurs in all living organisms when some physical, chemical, or
biological feature of the environment is outside the range that is optimal
for development of that organism. Stress occurs in a whole ecosystem
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6
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
whenever some physical, chemical, or biological feature of the environment
causes a significant alteration of the natural dynamics of (i.e., flows of
energy and materials through) that system (Odum, 1985~.
As ecosystems function, populations of organisms playing similar roles
are joined in communities and trophic groups or levels. These large groups
contain many species of organisms that act as ecological units and respond
to stresses as ecological units. Some examples of the reactions of large
groups of soil animals to environmental stress are discussed in Chapter 8
of this volume.
Ecological Risk
Ecological risk is a condition in which the normal functions of a
population, ecosystem, or an entire landscape are threatened by external
forces or stress factors which presently or in the future may diminish the
health, productivity, genetic structure, economic value, or the aesthetic
quality of the system (NAS, 1986, 1987; USEPA, 1983a, 1983b, 1986a).
These external forces or stress factors can occur in the form of:
medskip
· excessive impute of nutrients, toxic pollutant, pesticides, etc;
· disturbance of normal energy flows, such as by thermal pollution
around a cooling tower or global warming due to so-called "greenhouse
gases";
drastic changes in the rates of ecosystem processes, such as by
drying of peatlands or flooding of tropical grasslands, thus speeding up or
slowing down decomposition processes;
physical destruction of ecosystems, e.g., by compaction of soils in
city parks, excessive grazing of rangelands, burning of forests or grasslands,
or covering with heavy loads of volcanic or industrial dusts; or
· introduction of virulent pathogens such as parasitic, pathogenic, or
predacious fungi, insects, bacteria, viruses, etc.
Ecological Risk Assessment
The assessment of ecological risk is the process of:
· quantifying the probability that adverse ecological effects may, or
are, occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stress factors;
determining the quantitative significance of such adverse effects;
and
· determining how to manage the ecosystem or the sources of the
stress factors so that effects can be maintained within limits that are
acceptable to society (Andrews, 1987; Kates, 1978; U.S.EPA, 1987a, 1987b).
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OVERVIEW
7
In practice, airborne and waterborne pollutant chemicals are among
the most common stress factors of concern to society. Also, in most
ecological risk assessments, the most important ecosystem components of
concern are populations or communities of living organisms. In Chapter
8 of this volume, Breymeyer proposes production and decomposition of
organic matter as measurable ecosystem processes at risk. Similarly, in
Chapter 15, Ryszkowski proposes circulation of some nutrient elements
in agricultural landscapes as a measurable process at risk Thus, most
ecological risk assessments involve identification of one or more of the
following:
· the types and species of organisms that are at risk within a given
ecosystem;
· the rate of production of organic matter and/or other ecosystem
processes;
· the nature, concentrations, and timing of pollutant chemical expo-
sures that occur within the system;
· the nature and magnitude of the response of the organisms or
ecosystems to the stress imposed by pollutant chemicals (dose/response
relationships);
· the physiological, biogeochemical, or ecological processes by which
the pollutant chemicals induce their detrimental effects (mechanisms);
the sources of pollutant chemicals that cause stress within the
ecosystem; and
.
the management procedures (e.g., changes in species composition,
alterations of managed ecosystems, restructuring of landscapes, modifica-
tions of industrial or other processes, regulatory policies, emissions limita-
tions, mitigative treatments, or other methods) by which the exposure of a
given ecosystem to pollutant chemicals can be maintained within acceptable
limits; and/or the effects of the pollutant chemical within the ecosystem can
be mitigated (i.e., maintained within acceptable limits).
In many cases, the formal process of ecological risk assessment within
a given organization (such as a federal, state, or provincial department
of environmental protection, or a specific private industry or government
enterprise) may include only one or a given set of the procedures listed
above.
AN ILLUSTRATION OF CONFLICTS BETWEEN
DESIRABLE GOALS IN SOCIETY
The assessment of ecological risks associated with the widespread use
of pesticides in plant and animal agriculture presents a good example of the
challenges in ecological risk assessment. Here the conflict between desirable
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8
ECOLOG CAL RISKS
goals of society is especially poignant because it involves a conflict between
two taboos the taboo against "bugs and filth" and the taboo against
"poisons in our food and water."
The departments of agriculture in most countries are charged to pro-
vide wholesome food for the people. The food and drug laws of the United
States, for example, state that food must not be "... filthy, putrid, or unfit
for human consumption." Those are powerful words and agricultural sci-
entists heard them loud and clear! They responded by developing chemical
pesticides to help keep the bugs and filth out of our food. And soon, a
grateful society gave Mueller a Nobel Prize for discovering DDT.
But then it was discovered that DDT and some other pesticides were
not very biologically degradable. DDT tended to accumulate in the body
fat of all the people who ate the food that was free of "bugs and filth."
Furthermore, DDT could be dispersed in the air to many non-target or-
ganisms. Before long it was discovered that DDT accumulated in the body
fat of penguins in Antartica where DDT was never used! Now the taboo
against "poisons in our food" (and in innocent penguins near the South
Pole) came into conflict with the taboo against "bugs and filth." Thus, a
new assessment was called for and soon many countries around the world
prohibited the use of DDT.
CONTRASTS ANI) SIMILARITIES BETWEEN
POLAND AND THE UNITED STATES
The current environmental situation is quite different in Poland and
the United States. In both countries there exist some areas of very high
environmental quality and others of great environmental impact. Examples
of the latter in the United States include the San Bernardino Valley of
California, some parts of the Great Lakes, and the steel production areas
near Gary, Indiana. In Poland they include Upper Silesia, the Krakow
region, lbroszow, Pulawy, and several other areas. The essential difference,
however, is that the percentage of heavily impacted areas is greater in
Poland; such areas encompass practically the entire southwestern part of
the country.
In Poland, both air and water quality have been decreasing over the
past 30 to 40 years as the country has sought to use its substantial reserves of
high-sulfur coal in heavy industry. In the United States, both air and water
quality have improved in many parts of the country as the economy has
shifted away from its earlier dependence on heavy industry and responded
to the requirements of the Clean Air Act of 1970 and the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act of 1972.
In Poland, the most severe air-quality problems are emissions of sulfur
dioxide and industrial dusts and aerosols in the southwestern part of the
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OVERVIEW
i''Ail YEARLY FALL OF SULFUR COUNT IN EURO
FIGURE 1 Distribution of sulfur pollution over Europe. Please note especially the so-
called "black spot" of Europe which includes the southwestern part of Poland and portions
of Czechoslovakia and the German Democratic Republic. The data shown are for the
period December 1978 through March 1982.
country. In the eastern United States, by contrast, the most severe air qual-
ity problem is ozone and other photochemical oxidants which accumulate
in the atmosphere mainly in the eastern half of the country and in southern
California.
In Poland, the most important air pollutants are emitted directly from
industrial smoke stacks in the form of gaseous sulfur dioxide and industrial
dusts. In the eastern United States, by contrast, the most important air
pollutants are not emitted directly from industrial sources; ozone, other
photochemical oxidants, and acid deposition are formed in the atmosphere
from a complex mixture of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds
released by both mobile and stationary sources.
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10
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
In Poland, geographical gradients from major cities to the surrounding
countryside are fairly steep, typically decreasing by a factor of ten over
distances of 10 to 100 kilometers. In the United States, by contrast, geo-
graphical gradients in ozone pollution are fairly shallow, typically decreasing
by a factor of two over distances of 100 to 500 kilometers.
In Poland, sulfur-dioxide and dust-pollution problems are more or less
constant throughout the year. In the United States, by contrast, ozone
pollution is a problem only during the summer months.
The maps in Figures 1 and 2 show a part of this story. The southwestern
part of Poland lies in the so-called "black spot" of the European continent
(see Figure 1~. Here, heavy industries from three nations (Czechoslovakia,
the German Democratic Republic, and Poland) are concentrated in a small
area. This is the most polluted area in all of Europe. Most of the territory
of Poland lies in the path of dominant southwesterly winds. Thus, much of
the country receives a heavy dose of sulfur and dust pollution in all seasons
of the year.
The area of highest ozone pollution in the eastern United States forms
a broad band across the southern part of the country (see Figure 2~. Here,
many different mobile and stationary sources emit nitrogen oxides and
volatile organic compounds which are precursors for photochemical oxida-
tion reactions. High concentrations of ozone accumulate in the atmosphere
mainly in the summer months when oxidation reaction rates are high and
wind speeds are generally low.
These contrasts in air quality (see Chapters 9-12), and those in water
quality (see Chapters 18 and 19) are caused in part by differences in the
area and population density of the two countries. But they are also caused
by differences in the history of industrialization, electrification, and urban-
ization, different energy resources and policies, and some geographical and
political influences. The discovery of many similarities and differences in
the ecological risks confronting a middle-sized European country and a
very large North American country was very fascinating to the participants
in the PAN-NAS workshops. We hope it will also be instructive and of
general interest to the ecologists, economists, and environmental protection
specialists for whom this book was written.
OVERVIEW OF THE BOOK
This book is organized in seven distinct sections:
Overview and Executive Summary (Chapters 1 and 23;
Environmental Management Concepts (Chapters 3-6~;
· Human Effects on the Terrestrial Environment (Chapters 7-14~;
· Agricultural Impacts on Environmental Quality (Chapters 15-16~;
· Impacts on Aquatic Ecosystems (Chapters 17-19~;
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OVERVIEW
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12
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
· Environmental Management Case Studies (Chapters 20-23~;
· Recommendations (Chapter 24~.
OUR HOPE FOR THE FUTURE
The editors of this book hope every reader will find the Executive
Summary in Chapter 2 and the Recommendations in Chapter 24 especially
valuable. But more importantly, we hope you find that the volume as a
whole illustrates Oliver Wendell Holmes' conviction that:
Man's mind, stretched to embrace a new idea, never returns to its original
. . .
almenslons.
Preserving and restoring the natural heritage of our two countries is
both an "evolutionary possibility and an ecological necessity" (Leopold,
1968~. Mankind as a whole is urgently in need of:
· a land ethic (Leopold, 1968~;
· a wildlife ethic, a consumption ethic, an international ethic, a
geriatric ethic, and so on (Potter, 1987, 1988~; and
· a world society committed to the concept of sustainable develop-
ment (Brundtland, 1987~.
We hope the next generation of scientists and citizens in our two countries
and in every nation of the world will do a better job than the present
generation in learning both the scientific foundations and the practical arts
of ecological risk assessment and risk management. We hope this book will
help bring that process closer to realization!
REFERENCES
Andrews, R.N.L. 1987. Environmental impact assessment and risk assessment: Learning
from each other. Task Force on Risk and Polipy Analysis Under Conditions of
Uncertainty. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Luxenburg, Austria.
pp. 19.
Breymeyer, A. 1986. Comparative ecology of terrestrial ecosystems: Production/decomposi-
tion budget. A proposal for establishment of a SCOPE synthesis of data on organic
matter budgets. Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Commission on Phys-
ical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources, National Research Council, Washington,
D.C. pp. 6.
Brundtland, G.H. 1987. Our common future. Report of the World Commission on Environ-
ment and Development. Oxford University Press, Cambridge, England. pp. 238.
Conable, B.B. 1987. Sound ecology is good business. World Resources Institute, Washington,
D.C. pp. 15.
Cowling, E.B. 1985. Pollutants in the air and acids in the rain: Influences on our natural
environment and a challenge for every industrial society. XXV Horace M. Albright
Conservation Lecture, College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley.
pp. 26.
Kates, R.W. 1978. Risk assessment of environmental hazard. SCOPE 8. New York: John
Wiley and Sons, pp. 112.
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OVERVIEW
13
Leopold, A. 1968. A sand county almanac. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, pp.
226.
National Academy Sciences (NAS). 1986. Ecological knowledge and environmental problem
solving: Concepts and case studies. Committee on the Applications of Ecological
Theory to Environmental Problems, Commission on Life Sciences, National Research
Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, pp. 388.
NAS. 1987. The mono basin ecosystem: Effects of changing lake level. Mono Basin
Ecosystem Study Committee, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Com-
mission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources, National Research Council.
Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, pp. 270.
Odum, E.P. 1985. Itends expected in stressed ecosystems. Bioscience 35:419422.
Fillet, G., and T. Murota. 1987. Environmental economics: The analysis of a major interface.
Geneva, Switzerland: R. Leimgruber, pp. 320.
Potter, V.R. 1987. Aldo Leopold's land ethics revisited: limo kinds of bioethics. Perspectives
in Biology and Medicine 30157-10.
Potter, V.R. 1988. Global bioethics: Building on the Leopold legacy. East Lansing,
Michigan: Michigan State University Press, pp. 203.
Smith, W.L~ 1980. Air pollution and forest trees. New York: Academic Press, pp. 384.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1983a. Testing for environmental effects under
the Toxic Substances Control Act. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington,
D.C., pp. 55.
U.S. EPA. 1983b. Estimating "concern levels" for concentrations of chemical substances
in the aquatic environment. Office of Environmental Processes and Effects Research,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., pp. 46.
U.S. EPA. 1986a. Hazard Evaluation Division. Standard Evaluation Procedure. Ecological
Risk Assessment. Office of Pesticide Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, D.C., pp. 96.
U.S. EPA. 1986b. Research plan for ecological risk assessment. Office of Environmental
Processes and Ejects Research, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington,
D.C., p. 6.
U.S. EPA. 1987a. Unfinished business: A comparative assessment of environmental problems.
Appendix III. Ecological Risk Work Group. Office of Research and Development,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
U.S. EPA. 1987b. EPA's current ecological risk research program and a strategy for a
long-term research and related monitoring program. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, D.C., p. 44.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
ecological risks
